Cheltenham 2017 Antepost

jimjamcos

November is the month I usually start to place the odd antepost bet as big guns get rolled out.

I've already posted on other thread that I rate Blow By Blow and Death Duty form a pick of last year's Bumpers and have backed them for Neptune/Albert Bartlett.

Have also just placed a win bet on More Of That for Gold Cup @ 33/1. It's a risky bet given he's bled a few times, including last season's RSA, but given he still finished 3rd despite that shows the class he has.

The Gold Cup could fall right apart.

Thistlecrack: a beast but inexperienced

Vautour: God knows where he'll run and if he'll stay

Don Cossack: Injury doubt

Conegree: Injury prone, will only be risked if soft

Cue Card: Rising 11, disappointing comeback yesterday

Djakadam: Solid but unspectacular

Black Hercules/Killultagh Vic: Likely to run in Ryanair

Vroum Vroum Mag: Mares race



More of That: Undoubted class being the only horse to beat Annie Power in completed starts, jumps fine and the relaxed type who should stay a Gold Cup trip. Trainer was talking about Gold Cup for a period last season while a novice so if healthy it should be target this season. Bleeding is obviously the big worry but at 33/1 he's worth a small win only bet given he's got the ability and scope to shorten considerably before March.

33/1 with Bet365, only 20/1 with Paddy Power

kfallon

I had a small bet on Black Hercules for GC at 33/1 and funnily enough the other I planned to back soon for it is More Of That.....for precisely the reasons you outlined above regarding the main players for the race

jimjamcos

kfallon wrote:

I had a small bet on Black Hercules for GC at 33/1 and funnily enough the other I planned to back soon for it is More Of That.....for precisely the reasons you outlined above regarding the main players for the race

I think he'll win today so may shorten.

kfallon

jimjamcos wrote: »

I think he'll win today so may shorten.

I didn't get on today so rang JP and told him to pull the horse out

Peintre Celebre

Never back a bleeder can't trust them

Meath Centre Forward

More of That would be one of my dark-horses as well but he has a lot left to prove. He hasn't actually beat much over fences but I certainly wouldn't be writing him off. The Jonjo factor always helps too.

At the moment the solid but unspectacular Djakadam would be my choice. A repeat of either of his last 2 GC efforts might well be good enough and who's to say, given he'll only be 8 next March, that he hasn't finished improving.

uxiant

Mullins always has his horses well forward which might be the reason why he has such a poor record in handicap chases. His horses are just handicapped to the brim by the end of their novice campaigns a lot of the time. Djakadam hasn't improved a yard since the Gold Cup 2015 and despite his age I wouldn't expect him to improve any further. The Gold Cup would really have to fall apart for him to win.

Meath Centre Forward

uxiant wrote: »

Mullins always has his horses well forward which might be the reason why he has such a poor record in handicap chases. His horses are just handicapped to the brim by the end of their novice campaigns a lot of the time. Djakadam hasn't improved a yard since the Gold Cup 2015 and despite his age I wouldn't expect him to improve any further. The Gold Cup would really have to fall apart for him to win.

I agree with some of that but at least you know what you are getting with Djakadam. He runs well at Cheltenham, he stays the trip well, he's a reliable jumper and he's consistent. I don't think the race has to fall apart. I think a repeat of either effort could easily be good enough especially as his 2 conquerors have to overcome bad injuries and last season's staying novices don't look great.

jimjamcos

Peintre Celebre wrote:

Never back a bleeder can't trust them

Usually wouldn't either but given his talent, uncertainty around numerous horses in market and his price happy to have a small play

madmoose

In regards to Djakadam what horse has ran in previous gold cups without winning and then won it?

longshotvalue

madmoose wrote: »

In regards to Djakadam what horse has ran in previous gold cups without winning and then won it?

The horses that beat him are possibly not running and he should improve with age.

I'm pretty confident Vautour wins myself. He was only just beaten by Cue Card last year and that horse beat everything my 20 lengths on his other runs. He loves cheltenham, and i don't agree with the whole he wouldn't stay in a horse box ****e talk.

madmoose

Vautour would stay and he would win so i agree but i cant be fussed with the willie guessing games as he mentions the ryanair again in the RP today.

kfallon

madmoose wrote: »

Vautour would stay and he would win so i agree but i cant be fussed with the willie guessing games as he mentions the ryanair again in the RP today.

You wouldn't even believe the radio in Mullins car anyway, been a serial liar for years....even before the likes of Ricci & Wylie came along.

AhrSkidar

madmoose wrote: »

In regards to Djakadam what horse has ran in previous gold cups without winning and then won it?

The Fellow is an obvious one. I thought his time had long gone when he won in 1994 - and I was delighted he did.

krustydoyle

Have had small ew bets on

Jenkins (Supreme)
Blow by Blow (Neptune)
Death Duty (Albert Bartlett)

PM me nudes

Invitation Only in the Neptune is the one I'm all over this year.

Was all over Limini at 8s last year but of course had her in multiples with Faugheen included :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes: Cost me a €17,300 payout :mad:

Have heard this Jenkins is top class in the Supreme

kfallon

PM me nudes wrote: »

Invitation Only in the Neptune is the one I'm all over this year.

Can't wait to see him!

BumperD

PM me nudes wrote: »

Have heard this Jenkins is top class in the Supreme

Pm gave him in the rp podcast last week. Also mentioned the horse that beat him in his bumper got killed

jimjamcos

Just had a bet on Sub Lieutenant for Ryanair @ 16/1 as think he could well be shorter this time tomorrow after a bold showing in the the Durkan.

The Ryanair market as it stands is sure to fall apart.

Black Hercules: He's fav but while I know he's first time out tomorrow my selection is shorter than him in betting tomorrow yet three times bigger for March which doesn't make sense to me. Anyway, his form when winning JLT ahead of Bristal De Mai and L'Ami Serge is muck anyway.

Douvan: won't run

Vroum Vroum Mag: won't run. There's no way Mullins throws VVM straight into open male company over fences given she's only ran in 3 mares races and hurdles. Never jumps a fence again unfortunately would be my guess.

Un De Sceaux: should get trip but doubt he's going to be much better over likely ground and trip. Tingle Creek field finished in a heap and he seems to have hit his ceiling.


Ar Mad: Similar to UDS in a way, will get the trip but not sure he'd be certain to line up here given QM is so low on depth and doubts about him and his running/jumping style at Cheltenham anyway.

Josses Hill: Very much an improved animal but he still only beat average enough horses in Tea For Two, More of That (finished) and Dodging Bullets last time. Championship pace at Cheltenham is still a worry.

Valseur Lido: Wont run. Gold Cup Horse

Fox Norton: Wont run. QM horse.

Road to Riches: May run but doesn't have the toe.

Killultagh Vic: Unlikely to run until late in season if at all according to connections unfortunately (would be my pick otherwise)


All in all, in Sub Lieutenant, I've backed a horse who travels and stays, jumps for fun and, most importantly, is sure to be targeted at race. Henry and Giggy have Sub and Valseur to split so makes perfect sense for them to go Ryanair with him.

Only question now is whether he's good enough which we'll find out tomorrow. I've a feeling he is.

PM me nudes

Backed him last week too in a couple of Hail Mary bets

Do you think Outlander could go for Ryanair? Thought he ran well today.

jimjamcos

TheTorment wrote:

Do you think Outlander could go for Ryanair? Thought he ran well today.

Easily could but may depend on whether Don Cossack comes back or not. I'd say Valseur Lido will definitely be in Gold Cup and Outlander may be too if the Don doesn't make it for Elliot and Giggy.

All in all though, I'm not too downbeat about Sub Lieutenants run today. He went toe-to-toe with a proper gr1 animal, jumped with precision yet again and was staying on a bit again at line.

Really think the test of Cheltenham in terms of travelling and jumping will suit him and he may not meet a horse as good as Djakadam in it.

Josie's Orders out for rest of season

First one of my antepost bets to fall.

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/465/10710979/2016-cross-country-chase-winner-josies-orders-out-for-season

famagusta

jimjamcos wrote: »

Just had a bet on Sub Lieutenant for Ryanair @ 16/1 as think he could well be shorter this time tomorrow after a bold showing in the the Durkan.

The Ryanair market as it stands is sure to fall apart.

Black Hercules: He's fav but while I know he's first time out tomorrow my selection is shorter than him in betting tomorrow yet three times bigger for March which doesn't make sense to me. Anyway, his form when winning JLT ahead of Bristal De Mai and L'Ami Serge is muck anyway.

Douvan: won't run

Vroum Vroum Mag: won't run. There's no way Mullins throws VVM straight into open male company over fences given she's only ran in 3 mares races and hurdles. Never jumps a fence again unfortunately would be my guess.

Un De Sceaux: should get trip but doubt he's going to be much better over likely ground and trip. Tingle Creek field finished in a heap and he seems to have hit his ceiling.


Ar Mad: Similar to UDS in a way, will get the trip but not sure he'd be certain to line up here given QM is so low on depth and doubts about him and his running/jumping style at Cheltenham anyway.

Josses Hill: Very much an improved animal but he still only beat average enough horses in Tea For Two, More of That (finished) and Dodging Bullets last time. Championship pace at Cheltenham is still a worry.

Valseur Lido: Wont run. Gold Cup Horse

Fox Norton: Wont run. QM horse.

Road to Riches: May run but doesn't have the toe.

Killultagh Vic: Unlikely to run until late in season if at all according to connections unfortunately (would be my pick otherwise)


All in all, in Sub Lieutenant, I've backed a horse who travels and stays, jumps for fun and, most importantly, is sure to be targeted at race. Henry and Giggy have Sub and Valseur to split so makes perfect sense for them to go Ryanair with him.

Only question now is whether he's good enough which we'll find out tomorrow. I've a feeling he is.

Just backed Valseur lido for the ryanair at 10s, i think he'll go there now as he didnt see out the lexus trip.

jimjamcos

famagusta wrote:

Just backed Valseur lido for the ryanair at 10s, i think he'll go there now as he didnt see out the lexus trip.

He's running in Irish Gold Cup at end of month so that should definitively tell. Ryanair does look likely though .

Johner

Yorkhill in the JLT. Not a hope Ruby will let him run in the Arkle.

jimjamcos

Johner wrote:

Yorkhill in the JLT. Not a hope Ruby will let him run in the Arkle.

Jumping worries me slightly but he's the winner if settling.

madmoose

The novice hurdles look open but Finians Oscar stamped his way to the Head of the Neptune on sat so he looks good but surely something else will come out soon.

The Moscow Flyer will be informative for the Supreme with C.Emery and Crack Mome entered.

kfallon

madmoose wrote: »

The Moscow Flyer will be informative for the Supreme with C.Emery and Crack Mome entered.

Willie has won that with Min, Douvan, Vautour and Mikael D'Haguenet so obviously likes to run a very good novice in it!

longshotvalue

Johner wrote: »

Yorkhill in the JLT. Not a hope Ruby will let him run in the Arkle.

I think if the Champion Hurdle falls apart ( ie.e willies top 2 don't run) id fancy Yorkhill to win that . Miles better than janworth

HarshOstrich

Altior is entered in champion chase, I put that up somewhere a while back.
Just 1 horse for him to beat, where the arkle could have a few

Itziger

HarshOstrich wrote: »

Altior is entered in champion chase, I put that up somewhere a while back.
Just 1 horse for him to beat, where the arkle could have a few

What prices they giving about him?

yaboya1

HarshOstrich wrote: »

Altior is entered in champion chase, I put that up somewhere a while back.
Just 1 horse for him to beat, where the arkle could have a few

Problem is that horse is Douvan
I hope he goes for the Arkle. Be a good race with him & Min. I think last year's form may be reversed. Was very impressed with Min at Leopardstown.

jimjamcos

madmoose wrote:

The novice hurdles look open but Finians Oscar stamped his way to the Head of the Neptune on sat so he looks good but surely something else will come out soon.

BBB

Johner

Absolutely zero chance Altior goes for the Champion Chase, he's not going to take on Douvan when the Arkle is his for the taking.

HarshOstrich

Johner wrote: »

Absolutely zero chance Altior goes for the Champion Chase, he's not going to take on Douvan when the Arkle is his for the taking.

Worth half the money is the arkle compared to champ chase.
What's 2nd in champion chase worth.
Also I'm not into the douvan hype because for me he hasn't beaten anything OF altiors ability yet.
I think he could beat him

jimjamcos

Altior was only entered in CC in case Douvan gets injured. Henderson has already said as much.

madmoose

jimjamcos wrote: »

madmoose wrote:

The novice hurdles look open but Finians Oscar stamped his way to the Head of the Neptune on sat so he looks good but surely something else will come out soon.

BBB

Read he will run in 5 weeks than others saying it won't make it. Like the horse but couldnt see it winning at Cheltenham after one run.

madmoose

There's a triumph horse yet to be out called Duca Du Thaix for Gigginstown and it is meant to be handy from France according to A.Bromley. Usually you see triumoh horses later on so ive had a small go at 33/1.

Also Elliott's assistant has said good things on this one.

jimjamcos

madmoose wrote:

Read he will run in 5 weeks than others saying it won't make it. Like the horse but couldnt see it winning at Cheltenham after one run.

One run will be enough for BBB. He needs to have that one run though.

byronbay2

jimjamcos wrote: »

Altior was only entered in CC in case Douvan gets injured. Henderson has already said as much.

Sounds a lot more likely!

Certainly prudent to enter Altior in the CC on the off-chance anything happens to Douvan. Altior would probably be favourite (I'd certainly fancy him!) in Douvan's absence, with so few good 2-mile chasers around. Still, would be amazed if Altior took on Douvan this year.

Copper_pipe

Just to let you know Paddies have now gone 'Non Runner No Bet' on Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase, World Hurdle & Gold Cup at the 2017 Festival.

the groutch

And shortened the price of almost every horse

PM me nudes

the groutch wrote: »

And shortened the price of almost every horse

Obviously?

Peintre Celebre

Are they doing rule fours too?

BumperD

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

Are they doing rule fours too?

Probably.

With Ruby's help, think we should be investing in their stock.

Gringo180

Copper_pipe wrote: »

Just to let you know Paddies have now gone 'Non Runner No Bet' on Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase, World Hurdle & Gold Cup at the 2017 Festival.

Djakadam 11/2 W/O Thistlecrack is great value.

Marv8

Gringo180 wrote: »

Djakadam 11/2 W/O Thistlecrack is great value.

That market wouldnt be NRNB, or would it?

sdoc13

Marv8 wrote:

That market wouldnt be NRNB, or would it?

Not nrnb

Copper_pipe

Marv8 wrote: »

That market wouldnt be NRNB, or would it?

It is now

famagusta

BumperD wrote:

Probably.

No rule fours with ante post