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October 2016 Boards forecast contest

  • 27-09-2016 7:44pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,187 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    1. Predict the IMT (Irish mean temperature, an average for five stations, Casement, Claremorris, Mullingar, Oak Park and Shannon). The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 10.1 C.

    2. Predict the MAX, the highest daily maximum at any reporting station as confirmed at end of month in the Monthly Summary.

    3. Predict the MIN, the lowest daily minimum at any reporting station as confirmed at end of month in the Monthly Summary.

    4. Predict the PRC, the average rainfall expressed as percentage of normal at the eleven stations we normally use, which include the five mentioned for IMT and also Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Malin Head, Johnstown Castle, Cork and Valentia.

    5. Predict the SUN, the total sunshine expressed as a percentage of normal at the six stations used (Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork, Valentia).

    6. For a BONUS question, predict the strongest wind gust during the month, in knots, at any reporting station, and also, what date this will happen.


    Deadline for entries will be 0300h Saturday 1st of October, with 1 point deductions for every 3h late to 1500h Sunday 2nd, after which penalties are 1 point per hour (in addition to the 12 points accumulated to that time).

    Good luck, if you want to estimate knots from more familiar km/hr, for example, 130 km/hr is fairly close to 70 knots. The exact conversion rate is 1.85 (so that 60 knots would be 111 km/hr and 70 knots would be 129.5 km/hr).

    The "average" value that I will use in scoring will be 56 knots.


«1

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 12,554 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen __________ 9.6 _ 19.0_ -1.4 _ 70_ 110_ 55 knots 12 October

    I know I'm gonna do sh!t hahaha, totally random predictions here.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Pauldry __________ 10.6 _ 20.2_ -2.9 _ 135_ 96_ 65 knots 31 October

    Me too


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,713 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Bsal __________ 10.4 _ 19.6_ -2.0 _ 125_ 100_ 59 knots 20th October


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,995 ✭✭✭ John mac


    john mac __________ 10.0 _ 17.7_ -2.4 _ 98_ 103_ 62 knots 19th


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,554 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    Rikand ____ 10.0 ____ 19.0 _____ -3.0 ______ 90 ______ 120 ______ 65 knots 30th October



    (yay, no penalties)


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  • Registered Users Posts: 164 ✭✭ sunflower3


    Sunflower3 .....10.8....17.8......-3.1.......115......93.......65k October 26


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,187 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    M.T. Cranium _______ 11.0 __ 21.5 _ --2.7 _ 080 _ 090 __ 64 kn on 30th

    (edit as I notice a warming trend on model runs today)


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,103 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    DOCARCH _______ 10.6 __ 21.4 _ -2.2 _ 93 _ 105 __ 58 kn on 23rd


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,408 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Jpmarn_____ 10.9 __ 22.0 _ -2.6 _ 105 _ 055 __ 55 kn on 14th


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,466 Lumi


    Lumi _____ 10.7 __ 20.0 _ -2.9 _ 100 _ 90 __ 65 kn on 18th


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,579 ✭✭✭ jd


    Jd____ 10.8 __ 21.0 _ -2.8 _ 108 _ 88 __ 60kn on 24th


  • Registered Users Posts: 317 ✭✭ kindredspirit


    10.3° ___ 20° ___ -3° ___ 120 ___ 90 ___ 65kn. 25th.


  • Registered Users Posts: 622 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Tae laidir _______ 10.9 __ 20.3 _ -2.5 _ 125 _ 97 __ 53kn on 11th


  • Registered Users Posts: 359 ✭✭ mrskinner


    Skinner.....[email protected]Oct22


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,406 Mod ✭✭✭✭ mickger844posts


    mickger844posts __________ 10.9 _ 20.4_ -1.9 _ 85_ 115_ 60 knots 26th October


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,745 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Joe Public _______ 11.9 __ 19.9 _ -2.9 _ 89 _ 119 __ 55 kn on 2nd


  • Registered Users Posts: 350 ✭✭ waterways


    waterways _______ 10.9_20.5_-2.0_126_093_65_24


  • Registered Users Posts: 457 ✭✭ dasa29


    dasa29 _______ 10.5 __ 20.0 _ --2.0 _ 090 _ 095 __ 70 kn on 22th October


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,772 ✭✭✭ dacogawa


    Dacogawa __________ 10.7 _ 20.2_ -2.1 _ 89_ 112_ 63 knots 28th


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,756 ✭✭✭ rameire


    Rameire_______ 10.9 __ 19.5 _ -2.1 _ 79 _ 120 __ 50 kn on 12th


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,187 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Table of forecasts October 2016

    FORECASTER ________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Max gust, date

    Joe Public __________ 11.9 _ 19.9 _ --2.9 _ 089 _ 119 ___ 55 kn ___ 2
    MrSkinner __________11.2 _ 20.6 _ --2.2 _ 105 _ 100 ___ 57 kn __ 22
    M.T. Cranium _______ 11.0 _ 21.5 _ --2.7 _ 080 _ 090 ___ 64 kn __ 30
    Jpmarn ____________ 10.9 _ 22.0 _ --2.6 _ 105 _ 055 ___ 55 kn __ 14
    waterways __________10.9 _ 20.5 _ --2.0 _ 126 _ 093 ___ 65 kn __ 24
    mickger844posts _____10.9 _ 20.4 _ --1.9 _ 085 _ 115 ___ 60 kn __ 26
    Tae laidir ___________10.9 _ 20.3 _ --2.5 _ 125 _ 097 ___ 53 kn __ 11
    Rameire ___ (-2) ____ 10.9 _ 19.5 _ --2.1 _ 079 _ 120 ___ 50 kn __ 12
    Jd ________________ 10.8 _ 21.0 _ --2.8 _ 108 _ 088 ___ 60 kn __ 24
    Sunflower3 _________ 10.8 _ 17.8 _ --3.1 _ 115 _ 093 ___ 65 kn __ 26

    Con Sensus _________ 10.8 _ 20.1 _ --2.4 _ 099 _ 099 ___ 61 kn __ 23

    Dacogawa __________ 10.7 _ 20.2 _ --2.1 _ 089 _ 112 ___ 63 kn __ 28
    Lumi ______________ 10.7 _ 20.0 _ --2.9 _ 100 _ 090 ___ 65 kn __ 18
    DOCARCH __________ 10.6 _ 21.4 _ --2.2 _ 093 _ 105 ___ 58 kn __ 23
    Pauldry ____________ 10.6 _ 20.2 _ --2.9 _ 135 _ 096 ___ 65 kn __ 31
    dasa29 ____________ 10.5 _ 20.0 _ --2.0 _ 090 _ 095 ___ 70 kn __ 22
    Bsal _______________10.4 _ 19.6 _ --2.0 _ 125 _ 100 ___ 59 kn __ 20
    Kindred Spirit _______ 10.3 _ 20.0 _ --3.0 _ 120 _ 090 ___ 65kn __ 25

    Norma L ___________ 10.1 _ 20.5 _ --3.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 54 kn __ **

    Rikand ____________ 10.0 _ 19.0 _ --3.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 65 kn __ 30
    john mac __________ 10.0 _ 17.7 _ --2.4 _ 098 _ 103 ___ 62 kn __ 19
    sryanbruen __________9.6 _ 19.0 _ --1.4 _ 070 _ 110 ___ 55 kn __ 12

    ____________________________________________

    Con Sensus may change if we get a few later entries (20 so far).

    Our group forecast is basically for a rather mild October with near normal amounts of both rain and cloud (sun). We seem to be leaning towards a stormy end of the month.


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,554 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    Awwww, where is the 123knot forecast gone. I was looking forward to railing that one


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,569 ✭✭✭ 200motels


    I was away and had no internet access. It's probably too late to enter. for what it's worth below is what I would have done.
    200motels
    10.8 __ 17.5 _ -1.1 _ 76 _ 100 __ 50 kn on 17th


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,187 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Not too late, just a rather massive late penalty of 42 points under the rules ... you might as well play it because even with a smaller penalty you would likely drop this month as one of your two low scores (and would do from a missed or zero, so no advantage to wave it off).

    I can't edit the table and consensus will stay the same (it would only change very slightly anyway).


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,187 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    MAX 17.2
    MIN 0.1

    The 150 mm rain (approx) at Valentia plus amounts at a few other western stations will set up about a min of 100% normal rainfall for the first week nationally even if it's bone dry at seven or eight of the locations.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,569 ✭✭✭ 200motels


    Not too late, just a rather massive late penalty of 42 points under the rules ... you might as well play it because even with a smaller penalty you would likely drop this month as one of your two low scores (and would do from a missed or zero, so no advantage to wave it off).

    I can't edit the table and consensus will stay the same (it would only change very slightly anyway).
    Thanks for that.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,187 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    After the first week...

    IMT 11.6 (0.1 above normal)

    MAX 18.3 and MIN 0.1

    PRC 71% of normal (about 22% for ten out of eleven, 451% Valentia)

    SUN 116.7% of normal


  • Registered Users Posts: 350 ✭✭ waterways


    ...........


  • Registered Users Posts: 747 ✭✭✭ omicron


    waterways wrote: »
    Hi Peter,
    do you mean above normal of the first week IMT? You wrote earlier the 1981-2010 "normal" value is 10.1 C. So I would say IMT of the first week is 1.5 C above normal of the monthly IMT.
    Wish you a nice rest of autumn.

    10.1 is the normal for the entire month of October.

    11.5 is the normal for the first week, so 11.6 is 0.1 above the normal for the first week.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 350 ✭✭ waterways


    Thank you.
    Sorry I did not want to post it, should have been a PM. :o
    Where can I get these data of weeks?


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