October 2016 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT (Irish mean temperature, an average for five stations, Casement, Claremorris, Mullingar, Oak Park and Shannon). The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 10.1 C.

2. Predict the MAX, the highest daily maximum at any reporting station as confirmed at end of month in the Monthly Summary.

3. Predict the MIN, the lowest daily minimum at any reporting station as confirmed at end of month in the Monthly Summary.

4. Predict the PRC, the average rainfall expressed as percentage of normal at the eleven stations we normally use, which include the five mentioned for IMT and also Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Malin Head, Johnstown Castle, Cork and Valentia.

5. Predict the SUN, the total sunshine expressed as a percentage of normal at the six stations used (Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork, Valentia).

6. For a BONUS question, predict the strongest wind gust during the month, in knots, at any reporting station, and also, what date this will happen.


Deadline for entries will be 0300h Saturday 1st of October, with 1 point deductions for every 3h late to 1500h Sunday 2nd, after which penalties are 1 point per hour (in addition to the 12 points accumulated to that time).

Good luck, if you want to estimate knots from more familiar km/hr, for example, 130 km/hr is fairly close to 70 knots. The exact conversion rate is 1.85 (so that 60 knots would be 111 km/hr and 70 knots would be 129.5 km/hr).

The "average" value that I will use in scoring will be 56 knots.

sryanbruen

sryanbruen __________ 9.6 _ 19.0_ -1.4 _ 70_ 110_ 55 knots 12 October

I know I'm gonna do sh!t hahaha, totally random predictions here.

pauldry

Pauldry __________ 10.6 _ 20.2_ -2.9 _ 135_ 96_ 65 knots 31 October

Me too

Bsal

Bsal __________ 10.4 _ 19.6_ -2.0 _ 125_ 100_ 59 knots 20th October

John mac

john mac __________ 10.0 _ 17.7_ -2.4 _ 98_ 103_ 62 knots 19th

Rikand

Rikand ____ 10.0 ____ 19.0 _____ -3.0 ______ 90 ______ 120 ______ 65 knots 30th October



(yay, no penalties)

sunflower3

Sunflower3 .....10.8....17.8......-3.1.......115......93.......65k October 26

M.T. Cranium

M.T. Cranium _______ 11.0 __ 21.5 _ --2.7 _ 080 _ 090 __ 64 kn on 30th

(edit as I notice a warming trend on model runs today)

DOCARCH

DOCARCH _______ 10.6 __ 21.4 _ -2.2 _ 93 _ 105 __ 58 kn on 23rd

Jpmarn

Jpmarn_____ 10.9 __ 22.0 _ -2.6 _ 105 _ 055 __ 55 kn on 14th

Lumi

Lumi _____ 10.7 __ 20.0 _ -2.9 _ 100 _ 90 __ 65 kn on 18th

jd

Jd____ 10.8 __ 21.0 _ -2.8 _ 108 _ 88 __ 60kn on 24th

kindredspirit

10.3° ___ 20° ___ -3° ___ 120 ___ 90 ___ 65kn. 25th.

Tae laidir

Tae laidir _______ 10.9 __ 20.3 _ -2.5 _ 125 _ 97 __ 53kn on 11th

mrskinner

Skinner........11.2.......20.6.......-2.2.......105.......100.......57knots@Oct22

mickger844posts

mickger844posts __________ 10.9 _ 20.4_ -1.9 _ 85_ 115_ 60 knots 26th October

Joe Public

Joe Public _______ 11.9 __ 19.9 _ -2.9 _ 89 _ 119 __ 55 kn on 2nd

waterways

waterways _______ 10.9_20.5_-2.0_126_093_65_24

dasa29

dasa29 _______ 10.5 __ 20.0 _ --2.0 _ 090 _ 095 __ 70 kn on 22th October

dacogawa

Dacogawa __________ 10.7 _ 20.2_ -2.1 _ 89_ 112_ 63 knots 28th

rameire

Rameire_______ 10.9 __ 19.5 _ -2.1 _ 79 _ 120 __ 50 kn on 12th

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts October 2016

FORECASTER ________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Max gust, date

Joe Public __________ 11.9 _ 19.9 _ --2.9 _ 089 _ 119 ___ 55 kn ___ 2
MrSkinner __________11.2 _ 20.6 _ --2.2 _ 105 _ 100 ___ 57 kn __ 22
M.T. Cranium _______ 11.0 _ 21.5 _ --2.7 _ 080 _ 090 ___ 64 kn __ 30
Jpmarn ____________ 10.9 _ 22.0 _ --2.6 _ 105 _ 055 ___ 55 kn __ 14
waterways __________10.9 _ 20.5 _ --2.0 _ 126 _ 093 ___ 65 kn __ 24
mickger844posts _____10.9 _ 20.4 _ --1.9 _ 085 _ 115 ___ 60 kn __ 26
Tae laidir ___________10.9 _ 20.3 _ --2.5 _ 125 _ 097 ___ 53 kn __ 11
Rameire ___ (-2) ____ 10.9 _ 19.5 _ --2.1 _ 079 _ 120 ___ 50 kn __ 12
Jd ________________ 10.8 _ 21.0 _ --2.8 _ 108 _ 088 ___ 60 kn __ 24
Sunflower3 _________ 10.8 _ 17.8 _ --3.1 _ 115 _ 093 ___ 65 kn __ 26

Con Sensus _________ 10.8 _ 20.1 _ --2.4 _ 099 _ 099 ___ 61 kn __ 23

Dacogawa __________ 10.7 _ 20.2 _ --2.1 _ 089 _ 112 ___ 63 kn __ 28
Lumi ______________ 10.7 _ 20.0 _ --2.9 _ 100 _ 090 ___ 65 kn __ 18
DOCARCH __________ 10.6 _ 21.4 _ --2.2 _ 093 _ 105 ___ 58 kn __ 23
Pauldry ____________ 10.6 _ 20.2 _ --2.9 _ 135 _ 096 ___ 65 kn __ 31
dasa29 ____________ 10.5 _ 20.0 _ --2.0 _ 090 _ 095 ___ 70 kn __ 22
Bsal _______________10.4 _ 19.6 _ --2.0 _ 125 _ 100 ___ 59 kn __ 20
Kindred Spirit _______ 10.3 _ 20.0 _ --3.0 _ 120 _ 090 ___ 65kn __ 25

Norma L ___________ 10.1 _ 20.5 _ --3.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 54 kn __ **

Rikand ____________ 10.0 _ 19.0 _ --3.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 65 kn __ 30
john mac __________ 10.0 _ 17.7 _ --2.4 _ 098 _ 103 ___ 62 kn __ 19
sryanbruen __________9.6 _ 19.0 _ --1.4 _ 070 _ 110 ___ 55 kn __ 12

____________________________________________

Con Sensus may change if we get a few later entries (20 so far).

Our group forecast is basically for a rather mild October with near normal amounts of both rain and cloud (sun). We seem to be leaning towards a stormy end of the month.

Rikand

Awwww, where is the 123knot forecast gone. I was looking forward to railing that one

200motels

I was away and had no internet access. It's probably too late to enter. for what it's worth below is what I would have done.
200motels

---

10.8 __ 17.5 _ -1.1 _ 76 _ 100 __ 50 kn on 17th

M.T. Cranium

Not too late, just a rather massive late penalty of 42 points under the rules ... you might as well play it because even with a smaller penalty you would likely drop this month as one of your two low scores (and would do from a missed or zero, so no advantage to wave it off).

I can't edit the table and consensus will stay the same (it would only change very slightly anyway).

M.T. Cranium

MAX 17.2
MIN 0.1

The 150 mm rain (approx) at Valentia plus amounts at a few other western stations will set up about a min of 100% normal rainfall for the first week nationally even if it's bone dry at seven or eight of the locations.

200motels

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Not too late, just a rather massive late penalty of 42 points under the rules ... you might as well play it because even with a smaller penalty you would likely drop this month as one of your two low scores (and would do from a missed or zero, so no advantage to wave it off).

I can't edit the table and consensus will stay the same (it would only change very slightly anyway).

Thanks for that.

M.T. Cranium

After the first week...

IMT 11.6 (0.1 above normal)

MAX 18.3 and MIN 0.1

PRC 71% of normal (about 22% for ten out of eleven, 451% Valentia)

SUN 116.7% of normal

waterways

...........

omicron

waterways wrote: »

Hi Peter,
do you mean above normal of the first week IMT? You wrote earlier the 1981-2010 "normal" value is 10.1 C. So I would say IMT of the first week is 1.5 C above normal of the monthly IMT.
Wish you a nice rest of autumn.

10.1 is the normal for the entire month of October.

11.5 is the normal for the first week, so 11.6 is 0.1 above the normal for the first week.

waterways

Thank you.
Sorry I did not want to post it, should have been a PM.
Where can I get these data of weeks?

M.T. Cranium

On the met.ie website, under latest reports, you'll find Agricultural Data. This section gives you the seven-day averages or totals that I use to derive the weekly reports. Their reports are for the previous seven days, so I have to remember to look on the 8th, 15th, 22nd and 29th of each month, get the four weeks as they come up, and then I average the values moving forward. I check the IMT values against "monthly data" in the past weather section. The question you raised about temperature anomaly was correctly answered by omicron and my source for that is in the table of agr-data.

There are always going to be small rounding errors working through the data so my estimates towards the end of each month may be slightly off. This is now my only source of sunshine percentages since the MS changed their reporting from percentages to total hours. But I can cross-check things against 1981-2010 normals which are contained in yet another portion of the website.

pauldry

That bonus with wind could be void at this rate

Light winds even when unsettled and with Easterly near end of month highest gust may only be 30 or 40knots

Rain looks broke too even though Valencia is carrying the country

Tae laidir

Sherkin Island gusted 36 knots yesterday.

My forecast is becalmed and in the doldrums!

M.T. Cranium

A new MIN observed on 11th

--0.5 C at Mountdillon

Would not worry about the gust max, something will happen towards end of the month. Raging Pacific jet is bound to shake things up a little.

I am looking at charts where a gust max of 80-90 knots is quite possible close to home here on Saturday, remnants of a Pacific typhoon heading in at 957 mbs. Calm outside this morning however.

pauldry

Dont need 80 just 65

N god forbid some rain

Only 3mm on my raingauge this month so far
in the NorthWETS

M.T. Cranium

Tumbleweed yet?

M.T. Cranium

After 14 days ...

IMT 10.7 C after a cool week (9.9 deg C, 0.9 below average for the period).

PRC was 52% for the first two weeks, with the second week only 34%, the average however is no doubt climbing rapidly after a wet day on 15th at some stations and further rain today.

SUN now at 103% after a week that averaged 89%, oddly Shannon was much cloudier than the other five locations.

M.T. Cranium

46 knot gust at Sherkin Island on 16th.

M.T. Cranium

After three weeks ...

IMT 10.4 after a somewhat cool week at 9.8 (0.3 below normal).

PRC has risen to 66% of normal, the past week being quite average (94%).

SUN is now 106% thanks to a fairly sunny week (113%).

Nothing new to report on Max, Min or max gust.

Looking at further output, would expect a finish something like this:

10.5 _ 18.5 _ --2.5 _ 060 _ 110 _ 50 (scores would be basically in order from low to high)

pauldry

Such a quiet month here in the West.

Only about 25% rainfall n very little wind

Im screwed in forecast thing now.

pauldry

Minus 2 in markree at 7am

Minus 3 in car around collooney at 715am

New low for sure

Just a heatwave n a storm with 100mm of rain needed now n ill be sorted for October

M.T. Cranium

--2.5 C at Markree on 25th.

M.T. Cranium

After four weeks ...

IMT remains on 10.4, the past week averaged 10.3 (0.9 above normal). This looks like finishing around 10.6.

PRC has fallen to 52% of normal, as the week was quite dry (11% of normal) -- this will probably finish close to 50%. Don't panic, minimum progression will inflate the raw scores.

SUN is very close to 100% now after a somewhat dull week (the east in particular) that averaged 82.5%. This may finish around 98%.

Keeping an eye on the rather mild temperatures but so far nothing new to report on MAX (or MIN).

November thread is open and can be found in the pinned threads section.

M.T. Cranium

The IMT was 10.5, PRC was 47% requiring minimum progression and sunshine 100%. MS confirmed the MAX and MIN values shown in the scoring table (18.3, --2.5) and the max wind gust of 46 knots, however, this occurred on two occasions, Sherkin on 16th as I had noted, but also Malin Head on 3rd. A check of forecasts showed that only one entry (Joe Public) improved their date error and therefore had a higher score than shown, all other scores are confirmed as a result. The table is now final.

Confirmed scores for October 2016

FORECASTER ________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__Bonus (max gust)

___Estimated values _ 10.5_18.3_--2.5_050_100__46 kn_3,16 __ TOTAL SCORE



john mac ___________20 _ 17*_ 19 _ 10*_ 09 ___ 3+5 _______ 83
Rameire ___ (-2) ____ 21 _ 15*_ 16 _ 14*_ 06 ___ 5+4+1 __82-2=80
dasa29 ____________ 25 _ 13*_ 15 _ 11*_ 09 ___ 1+4 _______ 78

Con Sensus _________22 _ 10*_ 19 _ 09*_ 10 ___ 3+4 _______ 77

Lumi ______________ 23 _ 13*_ 16 _ 09*_ 08 ___ 2+5 _______ 76
Dacogawa __________ 23 _ 10*_ 16 _ 12*_ 08 ___ 3+2 _______ 74
Bsal _______________24 _ 15*_ 15 _ 01*_ 10 ___ 4+4 _______ 73
sryanbruen _________ 16 _ 16*_ 09 _ 15*_ 08 ___ 5+3 _______ 72
Rikand _____________20 _ 16*_ 15 _ 11*_ 06 ___ 2+1 _______ 71
Sunflower3 _________ 22 _ 18*_ 14 _ 04*_ 09 ___ 2+2 _______ 71
DOCARCH __________ 24 _ 02*_ 17 _ 11*_ 09 ___ 4+4 _______ 71
Joe Public __________ 11 _ 13*_ 16 _ 12*_ 06 ___ 5+5+2 _____ 70

Tae laidir ___________21 _ 08*_ 20 _ 01*_ 09 ___ 5+4+1 _____ 69
mickger844posts _____21 _ 07*_ 14 _ 13*_ 07 ___ 3+3 _______ 68
Kindred Spirit _______ 23 _ 13*_ 15 _ 02*_ 08 ___ 2+3 _______ 66
MrSkinner __________ 18 _ 05*_ 17 _ 07*_ 10 ___ 4+4 _______ 65

Norma L ___________ 21 _ 06*_ 10 _ 09*_ 10 ___ 5+3 _______ 64

M.T. Cranium _______ 20 _ 01*_ 18 _ 13*_ 08 ___ 2+1 _______ 63
Jd ________________ 22 _ 03*_ 17 _ 05*_ 08 ___ 3+4 _______ 62
Pauldry ____________ 24 _ 10*_ 14 _ 00*_ 09 ___ 2+1 _______ 60

Jpmarn ____________ 21 _ 00 _ 19 _ 07*_ 01 ___ 5+4+1 _____ 58
waterways __________21 _ 06*_ 15 _ 01*_ 09 ___ 2+3 _______ 57

200motels __ (-42) ___22 _ 15*_ 06 _ 14*_ 10 ___ 5+5+2 _ 79-42=37

______________________________________________________

* minimum progression applied to MAX and PRC

The 42 point late penalty for 200motels seemed a bit harsh until I realized that other contests have somewhat harsher percentage drops, so maybe 50% would have been deducted and that turns out to be the same thing in this case thanks to the inflated scoring from minimum progression.

So in general a rather high scoring month for most, and congrats to John mac, Rameire and dasa29 who managed to beat Con Sensus.

Now that scores are confirmed I will work on the annual scoring update.

M.T. Cranium

Annual scoring update Jan to Oct 2016

The table is now based on best 8 of 10 (last month it was best 8 of 9) so your ranking score improves slightly unless October was lowest or second lowest score you have so far, in which case your ranking score remains the same. Of course your total score for all ten months increases by the full amount of October (last column with ranking).

best 8 of 10 ___________________________________________________________ all ten

rank/score_FORECASTER _ Jan_Feb_Mar_Apr_May_Jun_Jul_Aug_Sep_Oct __ TOTAL SCORE (rank)


01 572 _ Con Sensus ___ 73 _ 75 _ 77 _ 70 _ 67 _ 57 _ 65 _ 68 _ 65 _ 77 __ 694 (1)

01 567 sunflower3 _____ 72 _ 71 _ 81 _ 43 _ 61 _ 63 _ 74 _ 73 _ 62 _ 71 __ 671 (2)
t 2 566 Lumi __________71 _ 72 _ 89 _ 59 _ 65 _ 60 _ 57 _ 74 _ 46 _ 76 __ 669 (3)
t 2 566 mickger844posts_78 _ 63 _ 89 _ 68 _ 79 _ 59 _ --- _ 62 _ 39 _ 68 __ 605 (13)
04 558 MrSkinner_______83 _ 66 _ 64 _ 58 _ 73 _ 67 _ 71 _ 69 _ 58 _ 65 __ 674 (1)
t 5 556 waterways______75 _ 75 _ 58 _ 66 _ 75 _ 75 _ 72 _ 50 _ 60 _ 57 __ 663 (4)
t 5 556 sryanbruen _____27 _ 63 _ 52 _ 76 _ 65 _ 72 _ 70 _ 76 _ 62 _ 72 __ 635 (7)
07 544 Tae laidir _______86 _ 76 _ 76 _ 46 _ 47 _ 53 _ 57 _ 72 _ 55 _ 69 __ 637 (6)
08 536 Rameire ________69 _ 60 _ 70 _ 72 _ 59 _ 63 _ 55 _ 59 _ 63 _ 80 __ 650 (5)
09 532 Dacogawa ______52 _ 58 _ 89 _ 50 _ 75 _ 47 _ 66 _ 59 _ 61 _ 74 __ 631 (8)
10 531 DOCARCH ______53 _ 62 _ 61 _ 71 _ 71 _ 58 _ 75 _ 62 _ 46 _ 71 __ 630 (9)

11 526 Joe Public ______ 28 _ 63 _ 65 _ 72 _ 63 _ 59 _ 62 _ 49 _ 72 _ 70 __ 603 (14)
12 517 Jpmarn ________ 64 _ 60 _ 47 _ 75 _ 73 _ 51 _ 55 _ 37 _ 81 _ 58 __ 601 (15)

13 516 Norma L _______ 52 _ 65 _ 70 _ 57 _ 71 _ 61 _ 73 _ 55 _ 46 _ 64 __ 614 (11)

13 515 Rikand _________67 _ 76 _ 54 _ 54 _ 73 _ 60 _ 52 _ 60 _ 41 _ 71 __ 608 (12)
14 514 JD_____________69 _ 77 _ 32 _ 71 _ 61 _ 45 _ 67 _ 47 _ 60 _ 62 __ 591 (18t)
15 513 Dasa29 ________ 66 _ 58 _ 67 _ 53 _ 56 _ 53 _ 49 _ 75 _ 60 _ 78 __ 615 (10)
16 512 Bsal ___________65 _ 66 _ 66 _ 60 _ 53 _ 45 _ 52 _ 68 _ 61 _ 73 __ 609 (11)
17 511 John mac _______72 _ 57 _ 36 _ 44 _ 66 _ 57 _ 50 _ 66 _ 60 _ 83 __ 591 (18t)
18 508 200motels ______46 _ 68 _ 74 _ 61 _ 70 _ 22 _ 66 _ 55 _ 68 _ 37 __ 567 (20)
19 506 Pauldry_________53 _ 69 _ 45 _ 80 _ 56 _ 45 _ 55 _ 65 _ 68 _ 60 __ 596 (16)
20 503 M.T. Cranium ___ 46 _ 62 _ 78 _ 66 _ 69 _ 45 _ 58 _ 50 _ 57 _ 63 __ 594 (17)


21 498 kindredspirit ____--- _ 35 _ 65 _ 58 _ 61 _ 41 _ 79 _ 79 _ 49 _ 66 __ 533 (21)
22 ___ lostinashford ___ 69 _ 66 _ 63 _ 78 _ 77 _ 36 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 389
23 ___ Schadenfreudia _ 65 _ 72 _ 58 _ 65 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 260
24 ___ omicron _______ 76 _ 43 _ 72 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 191
25 ___ Carnacalla _____ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 72 _ 33 _ --- _ 52 _ --- __ 157
26 ___ Timmyboy _____ --- _ 53 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---_ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 53
27 ___ Elmer Blooker __ --- _ --- _ 51 _ --- _ --- _ ---_ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 51
______________________________________________________________

So the top six are now very closely bunched with another five or so not very far behind in the best 8 of 10 section. Let's hope some of us can catch Con Sensus in these last two months.