Norseman 2016

mossym

released the official vid today, looks epic as always

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Ph-qTK1axw

BTH

There must be another Mods outing due

pgibbo

BTH wrote: »

There must be another Mods outing due

If only it was that easy to get an entry!!!

mossym

they are bringing in the extra entry for failed lottery attempts from this year. first year you get one entry, if not succesful you get two the second year.

entries open in november, half considering putting name in just to get a few entries in a few years when i might be ready for it.

griffin100

The Bike channel (464 on the Sky platform) are showing a documentary on Norseman at midnight tonight but they usually repeat these often enough.

mossym

cheers for that, caught your post in time to get that recorded. looking forward to watching

joey100

Entries for the lottery open in November, anyone thinking of putting their name in?

mossym

considering it. fear is getting lucky on the first shot, which isn't what i want. too big an undertaking unless you knew you were getting the black tshirt

pgibbo

joey100 wrote: »

Entries for the lottery open in November, anyone thinking of putting their name in?

I'm going to just in case. It'll be my 3rd time trying. I don't hold out much hope

mossym

pgibbo wrote: »

I'm going to just in case. It'll be my 3rd time trying. I don't hold out much hope

bonus is if you don't get in this eyar you get an extra ticket for next years.

we should sort out a mutual support arrangement, i'll do support for you if you get in,and vice versa if i do..:)

boysinblack

joey100 wrote: »

Entries for the lottery open in November, anyone thinking of putting their name in?

Gonna try as well. Might as well get one ticket in the draw...

joey100

I'm the same mossy, will put my name in but at same time would probably rather not do it next year. Don't think I could turn it down though if I did get it.

Black T shirt would definitely be the goal but it's all about who else gets an entry and their standard.

BTH

mossym wrote: »

bonus is if you don't get in this eyar you get an extra ticket for next years.

we should sort out a mutual support arrangement, i'll do support for you if you get in,and vice versa if i do..:)

Need a support team of two.......

pgibbo

BTH wrote: »

Need a support team of two.......

Is that you offering your services????

boysinblack

BTH wrote: »

Need a support team of two.......

Only one according to their manual...

mossym

thought it was two, but only one who is designated was allowed to hand you things though. might have that a$$ways though

BTH

boysinblack wrote: »

Only one according to their manual...

Manual recommends two

BTH

pgibbo wrote: »

Is that you offering your services????

Yes

boysinblack

BTH wrote: »

Manual recommends two

Recommends two , requires one;)

mossym

BTH wrote: »

Yes

mod road trip is a go!!

here's hoping it's gibbo who gets in so..:)

catweazle

What happens if you get in and don't take it up - is that you shagged for ever getting a golden ticket again, would love to do it some year but deffo not next year, typical me I would probably come out of the hat the first time but would like to increase my chances in future years when kids are a little older

Mods there is a special exemption or there was at least where you can get looked favorably upon if you are working for some type of journalistic platform. Surely being moderators of the largest triathlon platform in western Europe would assist in getting an entry

joey100

Just a bump for this. The raffle entry opens tomorrow (Wednesday) and closes on Sunday. Many people entering? I'll be putting my name in.

hf4z6sqo7vjngi

joey100 wrote: »

Just a bump for this. The raffle entry opens tomorrow (Wednesday) and closes on Sunday. Many people entering? I'll be putting my name in.

Entering with the hope i don't get in until 2018.

joey100

I'd be the same JB, ideally would like it in 2018, but if I got it for next year I don't think I could refuse it either.

pgibbo

It would be like a thing I'd get it if I entered this year. Think I'll pass as I'll have enough on

iAcesHigh

This race is on a my bucket list, but I plan to do some other "normal" things beforehand I didn't actually know you have to go into lottery for it so let me just ask few fast ones:

1. You actually play lottery for more than one year?
2. What's the rough chance of getting it?
3. How much years in advance you can "play for"?
4. What's the price for getting into lottery?

mossym

joey100 wrote: »

I'd be the same JB, ideally would like it in 2018, but if I got it for next year I don't think I could refuse it either.

Yeah I'll probably stick my name in with the same reasoning.
Have awful luck in draws so not worried. Once had 3 entries in a draw with 6 total entries, 3 prizes, and I didn't win a thing:)

joey100

@IAceshigh,

Yep it's a lottery system, if you enter this year and don't get in you get 2 entries for next year and it keeps building until you get a spot.

There is about 200 spots open so it really depends on how many enter the lottery but I wouldn't say the chances are that high.

You can enter every year if you want, but once you get an entry you only get one entry the following year.

Price for the lottery is roughly around 10 euro with it going to charity. If you get a slot you need to accept it within a week and pay for it, this is around 300 euro.

hf4z6sqo7vjngi

Is the lottery entry not open yet? Cannot find a link on the page.

Kurt.Godel

Its a great business model/charity fundraiser. For 2016 almost 3100 athletes wanted to race, and there were 236 "draw" slots (assume 3000 of these entered the draw, the rest were elite, sponsors, etc).

So in a regular year your chances of entry via the draw are 236/3000=7.9%
Using the same figures for the new system, entering each year:
Year 1: 1x236/3000=7.9%
Year 2: 2x236/3000=15.8%
Year 3: 3x236/3000=23.7%
Year 4: 4x236/3000=31.6%
Year 5: 5x236/3000=39.5%
Year 6: 6x236/3000=47.4%
Year 7: 7x236/3000=55.3%
...
Year 13: 13x236/3000=102.7%

So you have to wait 7 years before you have a better than 50/50 chance of getting a lottery entry (and have to pay the lottery fee each year). In the 13th year you are certain to get a lottery slot.

This assumes the same amount of people annually entering the draw- if this place is a snapshot, a lot more people will be entering specifically because of the new system. In which case we are back to lady luck.

joey100

Think it's 9pm tonight, they just had yesterday that it opened today. Open til Sunday though, so plenty of time to get that entry in!

joey100

https://topptid.no/myreg/info/1224

That's the link that's hidden in the site. Last years info is up there but I'd say it might be the same link open later.

mossym

Kurt.Godel wrote: »

Its a great business model/charity fundraiser. For 2016 almost 3100 athletes wanted to race, and there were 236 "draw" slots (assume 3000 of these entered the draw, the rest were elite, sponsors, etc).

So in a regular year your chances of entry via the draw are 236/3000=7.9%
Using the same figures for the new system, entering each year:
Year 1: 1x236/3000=7.9%
Year 2: 2x236/3000=15.8%
Year 3: 3x236/3000=23.7%
Year 4: 4x236/3000=31.6%
Year 5: 5x236/3000=39.5%
Year 6: 6x236/3000=47.4%
Year 7: 7x236/3000=55.3%
...
Year 13: 13x236/3000=102.7%

So you have to wait 7 years before you have a better than 50/50 chance of getting a lottery entry (and have to pay the lottery fee each year). In the 13th year you are certain to get a lottery slot.

This assumes the same amount of people annually entering the draw- if this place is a snapshot, a lot more people will be entering specifically because of the new system. In which case we are back to lady luck.

not sure if you had your coffee when you made this post, but some of your reasoning is very suspect

Kurt.Godel

mossym wrote: »

not sure if you had your coffee when you made this post, but some of your reasoning is very suspect

Guilty! Just a bit of fun- some of the post was spot on;)

Its a great business model/charity fundraiser
...
a lot more people will be entering specifically because of the new system

mossym

Kurt.Godel wrote: »

Guilty! Just a bit of fun- some of the post was spot on;)

don't worry KG, in 2029 when someone enters the lottery for the 13th year and doesnt get in, and brings you to court, i'll be there to watch..:)

mossym

link for anyone interested

http://nxtri.com/race-info/the-draw/

joey100

Well I'm entered, at a stag next weekend in Liverpool when they will probably let people know. I'll be either drinking cos it will be the last time I will get to drink before the race or drinking to celebrate having 2 entries in 2018.

Kurt.Godel

mossym wrote: »

don't worry KG, in 2029 when someone enters the lottery for the 13th year and doesnt get in, and brings you to court, i'll be there to watch..:)

But the probability is over 100%!!!

Joking aside, its a pretty interesting model for oversubscribed races, especially "bucketlist" events. If you enter each year anyway, your chances improve year on year (assuming a binomial model). But this will ensure more people subscribe, making it harder to get into... I'd imagine one will almost cancel out the other. Its a win either way for their charities though!

Kurt.Godel

iAcesHigh wrote: »

This race is on a my bucket list, but I plan to do some other "normal" things beforehand I didn't actually know you have to go into lottery for it so let me just ask few fast ones:

1. You actually play lottery for more than one year?
2. What's the rough chance of getting it?
3. How much years in advance you can "play for"?
4. What's the price for getting into lottery?

Ok, lets try a proper answer to this. Literally back-of-envelope stuff, I've made some large assumptions regarding independence of trials, disclaimer, etc etc...

Assuming 3000 entrants in a lottery for 236 slots . This lottery can be modelled as a bag with 3,000 balls (one for each entrant). All balls are white except your red ball. In the first year 236 balls are pulled out one after another (call this 236 separate trials)- if your red ball is among them you get an entry. If not, two red balls are included amongst all the balls in Year two (and 3 red balls in year 3, etc.). For various reasons its easier to model this based on your possibility of not getting a slot
In year 1 the probability of pulling out a white ball in each independent trial is 2999/3000. Doing so for 236 independent trials is (2999/3000)^236. Therefore the probability of pulling out a red ball in year one is:
1 - (2999/3000)^236 = 0.0756

In year 2 the probability of pulling out a white ball in each independent trial is 2998/3000. Doing so for 236 independent trials is (2998/3000)^236. Therefore the probability of pulling out a red ball in year one is:
1 - (2998/3000)^236 = 0.1456

Year 3 is 1 - (2997/3000)^236 = 0.2103, etc.

You need to get to year 9 before you better a 50/50 chance:
Year 9 is 1 - (2991/3000)^236 = 0.5079

Odds are lowered dependent on numbers entering, so if (for instance) 4000 enter:
Year 1: 1 - (3999/4000)^236 = 0.0573
Year 2: 1 - (3998/4000)^236 = 0.1113
Year 3: 1 - (3997/4000)^236 = 0.1623
Year 4: 1 - (3996/4000)^236 = 0.2103
Year 9: 1 - (3991/4000)^236 = 0.4123

My figures are rushed so there may well be errors. Happy entering!

mossym

Kurt.Godel wrote: »

In year 1 the probability of pulling out a white ball in each independent trial is 2999/3000. Doing so for 236 independent trials is (2999/3000)^236. Therefore the probability of pulling out a red ball in year one is:
1 - (2999/3000)^236 = 0.0756

i expected better Kurt.
the first trial is 2999/3000
the second trial is 2998/2999.
the third trial is 2997/2998,

so it becomes 1-((2999/3000)*(2998/2999).....(2764/2765)*(2763/2764))

the trials are independent, but a winning ball is not replaced.

joey100

Nerds!!!!

mossym

joey100 wrote: »

Nerds!!!!

Joey joey joey,

Just remember,

Next time you're in a race, looking at a guy up the road, wondering if you can catch him.........


Kurt and I already have it figured out

Mr Tango

mossym wrote: »

i expected better Kurt.
the first trial is 2999/3000
the second trial is 2998/2999.
the third trial is 2997/2998,

so it becomes 1-((2999/3000)*(2998/2999).....(2764/2765)*(2763/2764))

the trials are independent, but a winning ball is not replaced.

Does the number of balls not grow bigger as everyone that didn't get in gets an extra red ball for themselves each year !!

Try the euro millions?

tunney

Kurt.Godel wrote: »

Ok, lets try a proper answer to this. Literally back-of-envelope stuff, I've made some large assumptions regarding independence of trials, disclaimer, etc etc...

Assuming 3000 entrants in a lottery for 236 slots . This lottery can be modelled as a bag with 3,000 balls (one for each entrant). All balls are white except your red ball. In the first year 236 balls are pulled out one after another (call this 236 separate trials)- if your red ball is among them you get an entry. If not, two red balls are included amongst all the balls in Year two (and 3 red balls in year 3, etc.). For various reasons its easier to model this based on your possibility of not getting a slot
In year 1 the probability of pulling out a white ball in each independent trial is 2999/3000. Doing so for 236 independent trials is (2999/3000)^236. Therefore the probability of pulling out a red ball in year one is:
1 - (2999/3000)^236 = 0.0756

In year 2 the probability of pulling out a white ball in each independent trial is 2998/3000. Doing so for 236 independent trials is (2998/3000)^236. Therefore the probability of pulling out a red ball in year one is:
1 - (2998/3000)^236 = 0.1456

Year 3 is 1 - (2997/3000)^236 = 0.2103, etc.

You need to get to year 9 before you better a 50/50 chance:
Year 9 is 1 - (2991/3000)^236 = 0.5079

Odds are lowered dependent on numbers entering, so if (for instance) 4000 enter:
Year 1: 1 - (3999/4000)^236 = 0.0573
Year 2: 1 - (3998/4000)^236 = 0.1113
Year 3: 1 - (3997/4000)^236 = 0.1623
Year 4: 1 - (3996/4000)^236 = 0.2103
Year 9: 1 - (3991/4000)^236 = 0.4123

My figures are rushed so there may well be errors. Happy entering!

Sort of like hunger games then

Kurt.Godel

tunney wrote: »

Sort of like hunger games then

"A starting slot at Isklar Norseman Xtreme Triathlon is strictly personal. It cannot be transferred, sold or given to another person"

Kurt.Godel

Well I entered...purely as a keen student of statistical modelling!

pgibbo

Kurt.Godel wrote: »

Well I entered...purely as a keen student of statistical modelling!

lol....be some craic if you got it

boysinblack

Kurt.Godel wrote: »

Its a great business model/charity fundraiser. For 2016 almost 3100 athletes wanted to race, and there were 236 "draw" slots (assume 3000 of these entered the draw, the rest were elite, sponsors, etc).

So in a regular year your chances of entry via the draw are 236/3000=7.9%
Using the same figures for the new system, entering each year:
Year 1: 1x236/3000=7.9%
Year 2: 2x236/3000=15.8%
Year 3: 3x236/3000=23.7%
Year 4: 4x236/3000=31.6%
Year 5: 5x236/3000=39.5%
Year 6: 6x236/3000=47.4%
Year 7: 7x236/3000=55.3%
...
Year 13: 13x236/3000=102.7%

So you have to wait 7 years before you have a better than 50/50 chance of getting a lottery entry (and have to pay the lottery fee each year). In the 13th year you are certain to get a lottery slot.

This assumes the same amount of people annually entering the draw- if this place is a snapshot, a lot more people will be entering specifically because of the new system. In which case we are back to lady luck.

There is only 200 males slots you may start over

Pmaldini

I've entered, hope ta fook I don't make it!! I've the hardman in august to sharpen me up for 2018😂

Kurt.Godel

They gave the figures for entry- 3650 have entered (up from previous years I think). There are 250 spots with 22 going to elites. Also I think a few sponsor and press entries, but lets discount them.

Therefore the probability of getting entry this year is:
1 - (3649/3650)^238 = 0.063

Its still wait and see for the acceptance emails... I bet quite a few here have fingers crossed they miss out this year!

mossym

Kurt.Godel wrote: »

Therefore the probability of getting entry this year is:
1 - (3649/3650)^238 = 0.063
!

no, it's really not...:)