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US presidential election -uncertainty & the markets

  • 15-09-2016 10:25am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 5,440 ✭✭✭ daheff


    So US presidential election is starting to kick into gear. What are peoples views on how it will affect the stock markets, before during and immediately after (ie between now and when Donald T the new president is sworn in?



    I think theres going to be a lot of jitters on Wall St. Its going to be a tight divisive election. I can see a lot of mudslinging and arguments going on. I dont think either side is going to be coming out with much credibility afterwards.

    I can see a sell off happening soon with people sitting on the sides until they know more about who might win and then come back to the markets towards mid Feb.


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 7,494 ✭✭✭ BrokenArrows


    daheff wrote: »
    So US presidential election is starting to kick into gear. What are peoples views on how it will affect the stock markets, before during and immediately after (ie between now and when Donald T the new president is sworn in?



    I think theres going to be a lot of jitters on Wall St. Its going to be a tight divisive election. I can see a lot of mudslinging and arguments going on. I dont think either side is going to be coming out with much credibility afterwards.

    I can see a sell off happening soon with people sitting on the sides until they know more about who might win and then come back to the markets towards mid Feb.

    Honestly i wish i had put some money on trump to win back when he was at huge odds. Im pretty sure hes going to win. Its the passionate extreme people who are voting for him and they WILL vote. But the moderate people who support Clinton will not vote. Its the same logic that was behind the brexit vote. The extreem idiots were the ones who voted and the remainder didnt.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,440 ✭✭✭ daheff


    Honestly i wish i had put some money on trump to win back when he was at huge odds. Im pretty sure hes going to win. Its the passionate extreme people who are voting for him and they WILL vote. But the moderate people who support Clinton will not vote. Its the same logic that was behind the brexit vote. The extreem idiots were the ones who voted and the remainder didnt.

    I agree - I think Trump will win. I dont really like either candidate and i reckon neither will win a second term.

    I thinking that the polls are tight and will flip flop over the coming weeks and that uncertainty will mean a dive in markets.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,435 ixus


    Peso is the outright bet on him at the moment.

    Trump has figured how to manipulate the media and how people use social media these days. If he reduces the attacks and starts to appear presidential i think he gets it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 27,467 ✭✭✭✭ drunkmonkey


    Just cutting and pasting here but read this a while ago

    A political crystal ball. Election results may not be so great at predicting stock market returns, but the converse is not the case. It turns out that the stock market has an uncanny ability to predict who will call the White House home for the next four years. If the stock market is up in the three months leading up to the election, put your money on the incumbent party. Losses over those three months tend to usher in a new party.

    The statistics are compelling. In the 22 president elections since 1928, 14 were preceded by gains in the three months prior. In 12 of those 14 instances, the incumbent (or the incumbent party) won the White House. In seven of eight elections preceded by three months of stock market losses, incumbents were sent packing. Exceptions to this correlation occurred in 1956, 1968 and 1980. According to Stack, the S&P 500 has an 86.4% success rate in forecasting the election.

    Full article: http://m.kiplinger.com/article/investing/T043-C008-S003-how-presidential-elections-affect-the-stock-market.html

    What would you trade based on that 86.4% successful nugget?


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,435 ixus


    ixus wrote: »
    Peso is the outright bet on him at the moment.

    Trump has figured how to manipulate the media and how people use social media these days. If he reduces the attacks and starts to appear presidential i think he gets it.

    Peso hit record low v USD. From @soberlook

    https://mobile.twitter.com/SoberLook/status/776925444872531972/photo/1


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Kaylin Freezing Sea


    DT was 25/1+ last year, now it's more or less evens.

    If HC doesn't win (which may happen) the bank stocks will take a kicking, as they often pay for her 'after dinner speeches and advisory meetings'. DT is more or less self-funding which makes sense if you want to push, rather than be pulled on your own ideas. Another wildcard scenario is the suspension of the entire election for a period, due to civil unrest/protest or unavailability of candidate(s).

    Jittery times for the markets as a whole, but prosperous times for everyone longer-term in the new 4th Industrial Revolution.


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 12,462 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Amirani


    ixus wrote: »
    Peso is the outright bet on him at the moment.

    Trump has figured how to manipulate the media and how people use social media these days. If he reduces the attacks and starts to appear presidential i think he gets it.

    MXN v Trump correlation pretty spectacular atm.

    Regards the OP and impact on equities, not so sure Trump victory leads to a sell off by any means.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,440 ✭✭✭ daheff


    DT was 25/1+ last year, now it's more or less evens.

    That would make sense. Last year he was one of about 6 nominees for his parties candidate (with similar HC's party side). Now hes one of 2 people who are up for the job...so should be in and around 50-50.

    Jittery times for the markets as a whole, but prosperous times for everyone longer-term in the new 4th Industrial Revolution.
    Not sure I quite agree with this -not seeing what DT or HC will bring to the table to make things more prospoerous for everybody (not just the US)
    Amirani wrote: »
    Regards the OP and impact on equities, not so sure Trump victory leads to a sell off by any means.

    That wasnt my point (on a Trump win leading to a sell off). My point was the uncertainty of the election will bring a sell off up to the point where the incoming president is more certain.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,363 ✭✭✭ KingBrian2


    Both are very unpopular I see a one term presidency as an earlier poster already mentioned. More uncertainty for the markets.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭ christeb


    ixus wrote: »
    Peso is the outright bet on him at the moment.

    Or you could just go to Paddy Power.

    I'm thinking of putting a sum on him as a stock hedge as I'm sure the market will fall 5-10% if he gets in. Which I think he will. Hilary is just too weak (physically and politically) and this will become more apparent as things heat up.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 27,467 ✭✭✭✭ drunkmonkey


    christeb wrote: »
    Or you could just go to Paddy Power.

    I'm thinking of putting a sum on him as a stock hedge as I'm sure the market will fall 5-10% if he gets in. Which I think he will. Hilary is just too weak (physically and politically) and this will become more apparent as things heat up.

    If he wins what your going to need is some guns and a shed load of cement.

    Think we've missed the boat on the gun run but still a few quid in bricks and mortar to be made.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,494 ✭✭✭ BrokenArrows


    If he wins what your going to need is some guns and a shed load of cement.

    Think we've missed the boat on the gun run but still a few quid in bricks and mortar to be made.

    To build a bomb shelter and protection? Haha.


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,224 ✭✭✭✭ Francie Barrett


    If he wins what your going to need is some guns and a shed load of cement.
    If Trump wins the election, then gun stocks are actually a terrible investment. Because Obama has been threatening to put restrictions on gun control, Americans have actually increased their buying in anticipation. This has driven the stock price of companies like Smith & Wesson through the roof. If Trump were to get into power, then you can be guaranteed the Second Amendment won't be touched, so the need to stockpile now goes away.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Kaylin Freezing Sea


    One aspect to consider is the possibility suspension of the election process.

    With the two marmite type candidates and factors such of health or civil unrest this could become a real possibility.
    Even if Biden came into the process, the timeline would be effected to an extent.

    If it does go ahead, the most significant change to the economy would be the gradual decline of the personal service industries, being replaced with automation, IOT-AI and even robotics. During and indeed long after the next 4yr term. This would begin to have a cataclysmic effect on the current labour market models. But the US should be well able to adapt to these changes in any case.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Kaylin Freezing Sea


    Market jitters today, pre-showdown 01:00 GMT. But Mex exporters fairly jubilant thanks to devaluation.

    pcbntQN.png

    Expect to hear within the 1st 5mins, the following comments (to mark off on your debate bingo cards):

    "Crooked Hilary"
    "Hateful Retoric"
    "Beleive Me..."
    "Who, by the way"

    If Hills isn't energetically tap-dancing through this, expect gold, and other safe havens to get a overnight market boost.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Kaylin Freezing Sea


    Those banks^ will recover tomorrow, as will MXNUSD, forex traders have now decided Trump is loosing and Peso Rebounds.

    If he doesn't hire a speech writer sharpish, he and the border bricklayer crews can kiss the big wall goodbye.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,435 ixus


    You assume the markets are smart. All assets rallied as if there was no chance of a Brexit right into the last possible trade before results started coming out. All on the back of polls and betfair odds.

    People did not want to reveal they voted for Brexit as they were being called racist, xenophobic. Transfer that to Trump and the view held of him by democrats, women, hispanics, black lives matter, actors. You have to be fairly right wing to stick your neck out and say I'm voting for Trump.

    It's not over on the back of this debate.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 608 For ever odd


    I don't think it will even be close, Clinton by a country mile(10%+)

    Clinton or Trump? Say now or forever hold your peace.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Kaylin Freezing Sea


    ixus wrote: »
    You assume the markets are smart. All assets rallied as if there was no chance of a Brexit right into the last possible trade before results started coming out. All on the back of polls and betfair odds.

    To clarify, I'd ignore all polls, polls of polls, and their subsequent 'polls of polls of polls'. These are generally sponsored by media overlords, as tools of influence, ignore them. The markets and betting exchanges are far more smarter reliable indicators, along with your own judgement or insight.

    In Brexit, the markets were always more cautious than the polls and media experts. Plenty of folks also did very well on the back of Brexit. 1300% was available on the initial results of Sunderland, if you were fast enough. The early morning 62% leave vote signaled a game over, and more importantly the markets/exchanges reacted quickly to this, well before the pollsters did.

    Agree it's not over until it's over, but Trump now has an real uphill battle after last nights performance, which beforehand was fairly plain sailing.


  • Registered Users Posts: 27,467 ✭✭✭✭ drunkmonkey


    If you were to listen to Trump it's sell sell sell http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-02/trump-urges-his-fans-sell-stocks
    He's offloaded himself..


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  • Registered Users Posts: 10,928 ✭✭✭✭ phantom_lord


    Be weary of your political bias here, nearly everyone in Ireland identifies far more with Hillary and therefor wants and expects her to win. Looking at the polling there's no way she wins by 10%, or even that she's a massive favourite.

    A few people have made the point that Trump's aim wasn't to win the debate, but to look calm and reasonable. He controlled himself, he didn't use the name calling he used in the republican debates, or on the campaign trail. He barely attacked Clinton. I'm actually surprised at the polling of who won the debate, he wasn't that far behind, I personally thought he was trounced. I still think the value is on betting on Trump.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Kaylin Freezing Sea


    Think the majority of folks (anywhere) have 'pity and apathy' for those having to choose from these two remaining candidates. Any euphoria of strong bias left for either was lost after this 1st live debate. Even those who concede DT may well have been the best of a bad bunch will despair after that clumsy performance.

    Again, ignore all polling and in particularly social media (auto-content-generating tw-bots are a real factor here). Ignore also all across-the-line publishing media also, many of whom are less than credible. The silent/silenced majority will be the decision makers (as per Brexit), but they will be influenced primarily on the basis of the three debates - using just their own common sense and personal interests.

    Value has long gone on betting for DT, there was 3.3 available for a short while after the debate, but now the best you can expect is to triple any stake. One value option bet @7.0 is available for HC to withdraw from the race (but health appears to be less of a issue now). Imagine if you're fast enough, trading bank stocks and FX - midway during the next debate is another route to profit.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 608 For ever odd


    Have a look into the history of women running in high profile Elections.

    Thatcher, Robinson, McAleese and Merkel spring to mind.
    There will be a high percentage of the fairer sex that will vote for Clinton - well because she's a....


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,928 ✭✭✭✭ phantom_lord


    Trump is 3.2 on Betfair, when the 538 model has it at nearly 50/50. That looks like much better value that betting on HC to withdraw.

    Also I thought this was interesting:
    http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/09/26/debate-flash-poll/

    Pat Caddell, the Democratic pollster and Fox News Insider, told Breitbart News that poll respondents said Clinton performed better at the debate; 48 percent said Clinton did a better job, compared to 43 percent, who said Trump did the better job.

    “However, 95 percent of the people we contacted told us they were not going to change their vote based on the debate,” Caddell said.

    Two percent of voters, previously undecided, switched to Trump after the debate. No undecideds went to Clinton. One percent switched from Trump to Clinton, and one percent switched from Clinton to Trump.

    Reminds me a bit of looking at the twitter stream when Vincent Brown is on, and everyone thinks their guy won.


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,224 ✭✭✭✭ Francie Barrett


    Candidates own supporters always think their guy (gal) won.

    Personally, I think Trumps wins the election regardless. From reading opinions from people who are on the fence/middle ground, I see quite a few who are tacitly siding with Trump.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Kaylin Freezing Sea


    As per this thread title, take polls and twitter with a large grain of salt,
    instead 'follow the money', the safe-havens of gold and silver just got cheaper this week,
    and €5k is available on BF for DT @3.3 if desired.

    Screen_Shot_2016_09_28_at_18_28_39.png
    Screen_Shot_2016_09_28_at_18_28_59.png

    Worth noting there is still two rounds left, and the issue of 'the wall' hasn't come up yet.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,363 ✭✭✭ KingBrian2


    I hope Trump wins, I wish him all the best. It will be trough though. Markets are siding with Clinton as with the British referendum.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,928 ✭✭✭✭ phantom_lord


    Sterling rallied right into results night of Brexit.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Kaylin Freezing Sea


    Sterling rallied right into results night of Brexit.

    Sterling was strong on brexit night, but maybe not as strong as the unanimous media confidence. Once the Sunderland results started to arrive after midnight, the international fx/markets/exchanges reacted almost instantly. Whilst the majority of media, twitterati, polls and analysts were still very confident of bremain, until the sun came up that is.

    Screen_Shot_2016_09_28_at_22_23_16.png


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  • Registered Users Posts: 69 ✭✭ reforger


    This is an interesting observation from the Guardian today:

    According to a recent poll conducted by ABC/Washington Post only 49% of voters under the age of 40 said they were likely to vote in November. A similar poll in 2012 put that number at 71%.

    Turnout among the younger demographic gave Obama the edge in 2012; if this figure is replicated on election day it could spell trouble for Clinton.


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