World Champs 2016: Mooloolaba/Kona

mossym

Right, first of the WC races is on this weekend with the 70.3 WC in Mooloolaba, on the gold coast in Australia.

Good indicator of form for Kona, but this year there may be a couple aiming at this as a main target, and may not even be going to Kona.

so, any predictions for Mooloolaba? and as a follow on, lets start hearing your Kona picks, before we see who spanks who in Mooloolaba

so, on the mens side, No Frodo or Gomez. Kienle surely focused on Kona. not that i think it really matters, Lionel Sanders has been spanking 70.3's all season, isn't doing Kona, and looks like everything has been focused on this for him, so have to go with him. after that it really comes down to how much weight they are putting on Kona, someone like Tim Don could go very well if they don't prioritise Kona.

so on Mens side:
1) Sanders
2) Kienle
3) Don

(with a sneaky hope that crowie could turn back the clock and put in a huge performance)

on the womens, even with kona as a focus, hard to look past Ryf to double up, even though i had doubts over her schedule with Roth/IM SUI, it looks like she can win here easily and not burn the tank for Kona.

after that i'm not sure, suspect Wurtele will go well, and you have to consider Caroline Steffen given she has publicly stated she's not doing Kona to focus on this.


For Kona, things change up a little. Frodo obviously strong favourite, but i think a couple of others come into the mix, Joe Skipper is in flying form and could pull of a shock, if himself and Kienle come out of the water close together and work on the bike they will move. Also suspect Jesse Thomas will go very well given his recent form, qualified early after Lanza and has been able to focus. tough to see beyond Frodo though

womens, Ryf , although i suspect Rinnie will be close this year, supposedly has made significant improvements in the pool so may not be so far off out of the water. No Joyce removes one of the most consistent podiums over the last few years, and will be interesting to see if someone like Heather Jackson who surprised last year can improve


what says ye?

peter kern

not a single p5 will be on the mens podium



tim reed and dreitz certainly medal contenders



females hausschildt favorite for 2nd place.

mossym

peter kern wrote: »

not a single p5 will be on the mens podium



tim reed and dreitz certainly medal contenders



females hausschildt favorite for 2nd place.

i'd agree on the p5 peter

completely forgot about Hausscildt, after doubling up in Euro champs she has to be in the mix

peter kern

mossym wrote: »

i'd agree on the p5 peter

completely forgot about Hausscildt, after doubling up in Euro champs she has to be in the mix

she is a 2 time 70.3 world champ and i think she is back to where she was back then , will lose to ryf on the swim but total of bike and run will be similar to ryf.
ryf in my mind is more favorite for 70.3 then gwen was in rio


sanders will be very hard to beat on this course only kienele if he would get something like a 60 sec adavantage of the bike can beat him
at the same time kienle is always in top shape for 70.3 ( apart from one day a couple of years ago ) .

pgibbo

Kienle, Sanders & Reed 1,2,3. Would love to see Crowie up there but hard to see it.

Ryf, Hauschildt & Steffen 1,2,3. It'd be nice to see Cave up there but she hasn't done much of late.

mossym

Live now. That's my night taken care of

EC1000

Link?

mossym

ironman.com. or
http://eu.ironman.com/triathlon/coverage/detail.aspx?race=worldchampionship70.3&y=2016#axzz4JDtVW7WV

Ceepo

That hill cant come quick enough in the hope of breaking up that pack.

mossym

ryf nowhere near where i expected her to be. sanders not making up the ground on the bike.


so the run could be very interesting!!

mossym

wow. what a race

Ceepo

mossym wrote: »

wow. what a race

Absolutely fantastic race, a pleasure to watch right up to the finish.
Two worthy winners

peter kern

mossym wrote: »

i'd agree on the p5 peter

completely forgot about Hausscildt, after doubling up in Euro champs she has to be in the mix

and a p5 made it on the mens podium. ( i doubt the bike was ever in a top 5 place but podium it is)

mossym

some very interesting discussion after the race. many comments on how close the lead motorbike was to the race leaders, especially on the womens side. and a very interesting comment from a well known US based coach on his feelings at seeing winners cross the line with a very visible inhaler inside their race suit.

take from it what you will, but interesting all the same

pgibbo

mossym wrote: »

some very interesting discussion after the race. many comments on how close the lead motorbike was to the race leaders, especially on the womens side. and a very interesting comment from a well known US based coach on his feelings at seeing winners cross the line with a very visible inhaler inside their race suit.

take from it what you will, but interesting all the same

I saw Cameron Brown was giving out about the lead moto in the womens race also as the race was unfolding. Seems like it was a major issue alright. Didn't see anything about the inhalers but sure didn't we all see the stat about the number of asthmatics in Team GB now versus previous years

mossym

it's crazy that the lead moto's are even an issue, surely the drivers are told how far ahead they need to stay, the lead athlete cycles at whatever pace they want and the moto just needs to stay far enough in front, can't blame the athletes

pgibbo

I see there are 15 Irish in Kona this year. Looking forward to seeing how BMC, McLynn and Callaghan fair on their debut. Some seasoned Kona athletes there also - Muldoon, Martin & O'Gorman. BMC is over there already. Giving himself plenty of time to acclimatise.

I wonder how much Roth took out of Frodeno. Will Kienle be able to catch him? Can Tim Reed carry his 70.3 form to Kona?

The Ryf v Carfrae showdown should be interesting. I'm sure Swallow will be confident after her win at the weekend but I can't see her getting near the top step with her run. Good to see Gossage recovered after her crash and fit enough to race. Fair play to WTC for letting Badmann race also. No doubt she'll be close to the top 10 again. Incredible woman.

mossym

anyone know if any bookies offers odds on Kona? thinking a couple of euros each way on a couple of dark horses to do well might be fun.

joey100

http://www.slowtwitch.com/Interview/Rinny_is_ready_for_Kona_6040.html

Carfrae talks about her chances in Kona. Seems to be very honest about her result in Austria and what it means for Kona. Reckon she needs a very good bike to be close enough to Ryf to have any chance of catching her on the run.

Does anyone know if Holly Lawrence is racing Kona? Has she done full distance before? Never really heard of her before she won the 70.3 world champs.

mossym

joey100 wrote: »

Does anyone know if Holly Lawrence is racing Kona? Has she done full distance before? Never really heard of her before she won the 70.3 world champs.

definitely not. have heard her in 3 or 4 interviews recently and in every one she says she has no interest in 140.6, cannot imagine racing for that length of time

pgibbo

Interesting post here taken from Sanders latest blog. As ever some interesting retorts too

joey100

http://www.slowtwitch.com/Opinion/Ironman_Men_s_Predictions_6042.html

I'm sure most will have seen it but slowtwitch have their say on the leading men. I knew they were older than in ITU racing but I didn't realise how old. The majority are well into their thirties, think the general thinking is you lose speed and gain endurance as you get older so maybe this accounts for some of it. Or maybe it's because with the sport growing in popularity it's worth hanging around to try earn some money.

Wonder will it go like ITU where before you could be a super biker and do well or a super runner. Harder and harder to do that now as people are starting to train as triathletes and come from a background of all 3 sports. Will this happen in Ironman racing where people decide to skip ITU racing altogether and just concentrate on long distance? Meaning you have athletes who have trained their whole career for the distance. Their is probably more money in ITU at the moment (except for the triple crown) so that will probably attract the fastest juniors but will we see more juniors realise they might not have a realistic chance in ITU and go straight to middle and long distance? Not sure if this would have any difference to be honest and more just stuff that's going around my head after reading that article.

mossym

look at the British performance program. criteria for youngster selection is swimming and running pedigree, they don't care about biking, that's the bit that can be trained regardless of talent. even if you are uber biker from very early making it into itu not going to happen, so long course the only option

look at philip graves, abolsutely savage biker, wins im uk at 20, tried to qualify for olympics and breaks down trying to run the paces he needs to. misses olympics, can't race for 18 months, goes back to lomg course, run pace comes down, he's back fit again.


if, as a kid you can swim and run, go itu.

if you can bike, go long course.

that's way too crude a cut but it's looking more and more like that

mossym

been listening to the podcasts build up all week, and breakfast with bob. can't wait for saturday night, i love watching kona.

hf4z6sqo7vjngi

mossym wrote: »

been listening to the podcasts build up all week, and breakfast with bob. can't wait for saturday night, i love watching kona.

I am having my annual Kona beer party in the house! Well timed off season break and feet up time watching everyone else suffer for a change.

mossym

Damon Skinny Barefoot wrote: »

I am having my annual Kona beer party in the house! Well timed off season break and feet up time watching everyone else suffer for a change.

Super. I'll swing by galway for bth sconhome and pgibbo and we'll be there in time for the swim start? Can you put on some food for us, we will be hungry after the drive..

hf4z6sqo7vjngi

mossym wrote: »

Super. I'll swing by galway for bth sconhome and pgibbo and we'll be there in time for the swim start? Can you put on some food for us, we will be hungry after the drive..

Sure no problem, it will save me shipping the bike bag back down to you:)

RacoonQueen

I ask this every year...what time our time do pros kick off?

mossym

now. just started

in before the gun, jesse thomas and joe skipper for top 5

RacoonQueen

mossym wrote: »

now. just started

in before the gun, jesse thomas and joe skipper for top 5

Just as I was getting ready to get my run in...

peter kern

females
ryf 1st shewas flat forthe 70.3 but the only atletes that can beat her bike run combo is hausschild and she will be to far back in the swim .
hausschild and carfree fighting for 2nd and given carfress proven run over 42k i would give advantage
wurthle the only other realistic podium canditate...easpecialy on a windy but not too hot day.

man
frodeno
somebody that has a top day ( o donnel, pots ,hoffman ,van berkel (on a not so windy day) ,
kienle

the other interesting thing will be how many germans in the top 10
last year it was 4 and this year they have a realistic chance for 5 in top 10

frodeno
kienle
boecherer
raelert
stein all would not suprise me and all 5 have top 5 potential. and stein and mc namee for me would be the 2 upset potentials in the field )
lange has the swim and run and on a top day could be top 10 too
and bracht a chance to 9th or 10th as he is still consistend at bike and run.


I would think that mc namee will make a nice jump forward in prep for podium 2017 has the swim and run and is strong enough to get the bike where it needs to be long term. ( and in pink historically when you come first or 2nd in in galway you do well at the worlds
joyce , the swiss guy who had his race of the live after galway and bozzoni ) so that bodes well for Mc namee and skipper ;-)


also suprised knowbody at all talking about butterfiled he is somebody i would be very suprised not to see in the top 10 and on a very good day podium.
and van lierde was amazingly strong on the bike this year before his accident if he is back it would be hard for him not to be top 10 either.
tim reed has not run a top marathon in an ironman but still 70.3 world champ that has won an ironman should not be dismissed and should be in the podium race at least till k 30.
anyway would be majorly suprised if anybody wins that was not in the 4 are prob the most consisten swim bike run package in the sport ( and there is now van lierde that one the think inthe first outing 1995 or so ) pity that ralert was seriously injured as I would have thouhgt given last years puncture he is the only guy that can beat frodeno when he has a good day.
it will be interesting if frodeno will try it solo if he does i think he will not win
and i hope kinele stays smart ie goes to the main pack by k 40 -50 than stays in the pack and the first time he goes t the front is after the turnaraound ( lieto style ) his only chance to win. he is the strogest cyclist of top 10 potential but he needs to be patient. and when he goes he needs to go 100% but he needs to wait until the pack gets tired and ideally wait after the first 2 attcks after the turnaround before he goes.

mossym

paddy power offering odds on lucy cheetham. i wonder what happens if you take that bet and susie wins or places?

iwillhtfu

What happened to auld chocolate milk I haven't heard mention of her name?

peter kern

mossym wrote: »

paddy power offering odds on lucy cheetham. i wonder what happens if you take that bet and susie wins or places?

iwould guess you lose as she had not a great swim

mossym

peter kern wrote: »

iwould guess you lose as she had not a great swim

my point was is it even a vaild bet as they got the name wrong, if you bet and lose can you get your money back, or win and not be able to collect as they got the name wrong. i don;t think she'll win or place anyway, more curious

i've no money bet on kona, it;s interesting enough

Bawnmore_Ent.

Anyone following Bryan Mc Crystal on quarqrace, his power looks a bit off????

mossym

has keinle gone even lower in his position? he was always low, but this is ridiculous

Grassey

Bawnmore_Ent. wrote:

Anyone following Bryan Mc Crystal on quarqrace, his power looks a bit off????

What's wrong with an average of 560w?

😂

peter kern

mossym wrote: »

has keinle gone even lower in his position? he was always low, but this is ridiculous

he changed the helmet more a head positon change. hipp ankle looks like always.

hf4z6sqo7vjngi

mossym wrote: »

has keinle gone even lower in his position? he was always low, but this is ridiculous

He looks much better and smoother on the bike although he seems to be holding back a bit and not his usual "I need to get to the front quick" approach.

hf4z6sqo7vjngi

Am I reading this wrong or has BMC gone through 32 mile on the bike 6mins quicker than Frodo and the front pack? If so surely suicicde pace?

iwillhtfu

Damon Skinny Barefoot wrote: »

Am I reading this wrong or has BMC gone through 32 mile on the bike 6mins quicker than Frodo and the front pack? If so surely suicicde pace?

It wouldnt surprise me. He was anxious of the bike because of the heat and wind both of which seem to be down on his practice runs

Bawnmore_Ent.

Over 6 splits BMC is Avg 26.96 mph. Lional Sanders Avg 25.85mph. I think Lional is faster top 10 out there....

iwillhtfu

Damon Skinny Barefoot wrote: »

Am I reading this wrong or has BMC gone through 32 mile on the bike 6mins quicker than Frodo and the front pack? If so surely suicicde pace?

looks lie BMC is 10 mins to the better through 42.7

iwillhtfu

Age group athletes at Kona apparently

Difficult to avoid with so many I guess but will explain fast splits. I'm not saying anything to do with BMC though.

Moto cam filming at an angle when looping back with AG heading out the way every now and then you catch a bit of footage and it;s just massive groups

hf4z6sqo7vjngi

If you want to ride legal or illegally you can. That pic looks bad if from Kona.

mossym

03:57
#1700 Bryan McCrystall of Ireland is the lead amateur male on the bike

iwillhtfu

Damon Skinny Barefoot wrote: »

If you want to ride legal or illegally you can. That pic looks bad if from Kona.

I was doubting it myself till I saw Frodeno passing AG's on the way out and there were massive bunches.

I feel it wont be an issue but if the like of BMC amongst others out splits the leading pro questions will be asked surely.

peter kern

iwillhtfu wrote: »

I was doubting it myself till I saw Frodeno passing AG's on the way out and there were massive bunches.

I feel it wont be an issue but if the like of BMC amongst others out splits the leading pro questions will be asked surely.

there might be 1 or 2 amateur that can ride with mc crystal so you dont need to worry he is in a pack

BTH

peter kern wrote: »

there might be 1 or 2 amateur that can ride with mc crystal so you dont need to worry he is in a pack

But how much has be benefited from the shelter of those packs as he's been riding through them??

peter kern

ithink what we see here is that boris stein can win this race in a few years time.
he has only be a full time athlete for some 2years and he can run