NFL/NCAA Betting Thread 2016/2017

JaMarcusHustle

Figure a new season thread is due. Main futures markets below.

Super Bowl Outright



Regular Season MVP



College Football Playoff



Heisman Trophy

JaMarcusHustle

My only season long bet this year is a treble of:

- Boise State to win Mountain West (7/4)
- Houston to win AAC (6/5)
- Clemson to win ACC (8/5)
- Stanford to win Pac 12 (10/3)

Comes in at around 68/1.

My first match bet is for Cal to cover the 19.5 spread against Hawaii tonight. I just think despite the missing receivers, Davis Webb will pick up right where Goff left off. He's a perfect fit for that team. I'd go for the under 65.5 too but I'm not fond of over/under betting.

Also throwing a sneaky tenner on Ray Hudson first time TD scorer at 20/1 and 15/8 anytime TD scorer for Cal. He's a tight end that's starting for them at receiver this season. I reckon as soon as they get near the red zone, he'll be a target.

Mance Raiders

AJ Green 16/1 to have the most receiving yards this season

Bateman

I have taken the following last month - not sure if prices have moved much since
Championship Outright:
LSU 1pt 14/1
Florida State 1pt 20/1

Heisman:
Dalvin Cook 0.5pt 14/1
Watson 1pt 5/1

SameOleJay

Bengals for the division 2/1

Donald DPOTY 10/1

MrKingsley

My only one so far is Packers, Raiders, Jags, Cards and Steelers to win their divisions. 140/1

helimachoptor

Titans to win AFC south is 10-1.. i may stick a tenner on it.

Once we get to week 2, i'll kick off my usual over/under betting.

Didnt have a good year last year tbh, so hope to bounce back

MrKingsley

Whats your over/under system Heli? Just accumulators on total/receiving yards?

helimachoptor

MrKingsley wrote: »

Whats your over/under system Heli? Just accumulators on total/receiving yards?

Just points.

2 seasons back I did quite well.

My system is take 150 and start betting week 2.
In general I'll go all in on that 150 and 2 years back over the season I ended up about 1k up but took some loses on the way.

Last season ended up 500 of hard cash down I didn't win and chased the dream but while I won some I was still down 500 of my own cash by season end.

This year I'll do the same. Take week 1 off and see how things go and then start from there.

I don't bet on other sports apart from a 5 Euro first goalscorer in the pub tbh so this ads a bit of excitement for me

MrKingsley

Fair enough.

I just started gambling on the NFL last year.

Every Sunday would put on a Yankee on 4 anytime TD scorers and a couple of 5 man over/under yards accumulators (although I usually look for over because I hate betting on unders).

Started well and was up until November but then ended up even.

helimachoptor

Tbh I have no idea even what a Yankee is so that's why I do the fairly cut and dried bets.

Score over 50 points in a game you win or lose that suits my betting intelligence TBH !

MrKingsley

Ha fair enough.

My yankee in this instance is picking 4 players to score a TD at anytime.

Lets pick Brown, Beckham, Cooper and McCoy for sh1ts and giggles.

So whilst picking 4 players you actually put on 11 bets. (6 doubles, 4 trebles and one accumulator)

So it means that if Brown and Cooper score a TD you get paid for that double.

However it gets interesting if/when McCoy jukes in. Then your paid 3 doubles (Brown and Cooper, Brown and McCoy, Cooper and Brown) plus the triple for all three.

Then when Beckham snags one in the endzone you get to lose your sh1t!!

I realise you didnt ask for an explanation but I find them fun bets because they arent dependant on the result and you are still in it til the last play, barring injuries.

Bateman

I see the Hawaii Cal game landed right on the number.
This game isn’t going to get any easier for us is it

JaMarcusHustle

Bateman wrote:

I see the Hawaii Cal game landed right on the number. This game isn’t going to get any easier for us is it

It was 19.5 for most of the week building up to it, or at least that's what I got on it at.

Bateman

Betting the over in the Tennessee game tonight

JaMarcusHustle

For this weekend I'm on :

Clemson -7.5 @ Auburn
LSU -10 vs Wisconsin
Texas A&M -3 vs UCLA
Florida State -4.5 vs Ole Miss
Indiana @ Florida International (under 61)
Clemson @ Auburn (under 62)
Georgia Tech -3.5 vs Boston College
Notre Dame -3 vs Texas

eagle eye

The over under on the Ok/Houston game was 66.5 so I took over 72 @. 2/1

Early in the first and OKlahoma have one already. Wouldn't surprise me if this one hit 90 points.

StringerBell

Finished on 56 iirc

33-23 Cougars with the upset

Bateman

Rough weekend, although not necessarily for people who prefer to take underdogs. I often do, but favourites are so tempting in some of these non-conference games

Frisbee

I was on the spread on:

Stanford
LSU
UCLA
North Carolina

Start as you mean to go on!

Bateman

A chevy chase on the unders in the FSU game

Paully D

I like the look of the Giants this week @ Cowboys (1/1, Betfair).

Prescott has looked very good in preseason but there's a big difference between preseason and making your NFL debut in week 1 with a divisional game. Add to that and you've also got a rookie RB (albeit a very good one) making his debut for the Cowboys. I'm going to side with the experience of the Giants to help them get over the line here and I think Prescott is being vastly overrated.

Bateman

Would go along with a lot of that. The Giants have actually been punted fairly heavily for the Superbowl in the US (maybe to some extent they are every year as they’re a big-market team) but are still a decent price on this side of the water.

NapoleonInRags

MrKingsley wrote: »

Ha fair enough.

My yankee in this instance is picking 4 players to score a TD at anytime.

Lets pick Brown, Beckham, Cooper and McCoy for sh1ts and giggles.

So whilst picking 4 players you actually put on 11 bets. (6 doubles, 4 trebles and one accumulator)

So it means that if Brown and Cooper score a TD you get paid for that double.

However it gets interesting if/when McCoy jukes in. Then your paid 3 doubles (Brown and Cooper, Brown and McCoy, Cooper and Brown) plus the triple for all three.

Then when Beckham snags one in the endzone you get to lose your sh1t!!

I realise you didnt ask for an explanation but I find them fun bets because they arent dependant on the result and you are still in it til the last play, barring injuries.

Which bookie takes that bet? Can't see it available on William Hill...

Bateman

You should be able to get the likes of that on with Powers

nasty_crash

its not up there now anyways.... no td scorers prices

UnitedIrishman

Usually it might be closer to kick off for the TD scorers to be up.

MrKingsley

NapoleonInRags wrote: »

Which bookie takes that bet? Can't see it available on William Hill...

I use paddypower for my sins.

You should be able to make it with anyone though. Just try and select 4 single bets and then on your betslip it should give you the option of doing doubles, triples, yankee or accumulator

And yeah they wont have anytime TDs scorers until a day before or so

JaMarcusHustle

This weekend I'm on:

Duke -5 vs Wake Forest
Cal +8 @ San Diego State
Michigan -35.5 vs UCF
Oklahoma State -20.5 vs Central Michigan
Under 45 Vanderbilt vs Middle Tennessee St
NC State -4.5 @ East Carolina
Boise State -11 @ Washington State
Alabama -28 vs Western Kentucky

Chargers +7 @ Chiefs

Guffy

Hammering chargers +7.

SD were a very good team last year until they were hit by injuries. Also expecting a lot from Gordan this year. Chiefs are a conservative offense and charles will be limited at best. Think that SD squeek it but even if chiefs win its not going to be by more than a TD.

Paully D

Paully D wrote: »

I like the look of the Giants this week @ Cowboys (1/1, Betfair).

Prescott has looked very good in preseason but there's a big difference between preseason and making your NFL debut in week 1 with a divisional game. Add to that and you've also got a rookie RB (albeit a very good one) making his debut for the Cowboys. I'm going to side with the experience of the Giants to help them get over the line here and I think Prescott is being vastly overrated.

Also like Packers (-4.5) @ Jaguars.

Jaguars have had a very good offseason and this is surely the year that they actually start to really improve, but I don't think it's going to happen in week 1. Packers offense has Nelson back and although he's likely to be rusty, his presence makes them so much more dangerous. I fancy Rodgers to lead the Packers to a win by at least a TD.

Guffy

Anyone else notice 365 offered the full cashout on overs after panthers made 41 points? Great start to the year

UnitedIrishman

Had a few free bets to work with so went for some daft ones this weekend for interest more than anything:

Isaiah Crowell, Mark Ingram, Eddie Lacy anytime TD treble at 6/1.
Spencer Ware, Jared Cook, Martellus Bennett anytime TD treble at 11.5/1.
Martin, Petersen, David Johnson and Gurley anytime TD accum at 4/1.

Saints/Raiders under 58.5, Browns/Eagles over 34.5, Vikings +4, Tampa Bay, Giants - accum at 9/1.

Bucs +10, Packers +3, Chargers +14, Dolphins +17, Lions +12, Patriots +14.5, Redskins +10, Bills/Ravens under 51, Bengals/Jets under 50, Giants/Cowboys under 56 accumulator at 12/1:

StringerBell

When you have a team -28.5 and they win by 28 that is a pretty bitter pill to take sometimes, superbly frustrating.

JaMarcusHustle

StringerBell wrote: »

When you have a team -28.5 and they win by 28 that is a pretty bitter pill to take sometimes, superbly frustrating.

Alabama?

Had them -28 so it only pushed for me, but so frustrating. Especially in those circumstances.

Guffy

Chargers +7
Tb +3

Browns ML

ML doubles and treb of the above. Scratch that, did skins not browns in th doub and treb ml

Did a few 1 euro accy anytime td scorers too for the lols

JaMarcusHustle

On 4 underdog doubles today:

Jets +1.5
Jaguars +4.5

Bills +3
Lions +3

Chargers +7
Patriots +7

Dolphins +10.5
Redskins +3

StringerBell

JaMarcusHustle wrote: »

Alabama?

Had them -28 so it only pushed for me, but so frustrating. Especially in those circumstances.

Yeah was checking the scores while in work, thought I had -28 too so thought, ah ok, a push, sucks but at least I didn't lose!

Tough night overall for me, out of 8 bets only 2 came in, hoping the NFL games go better

Hulk Hands

StringerBell wrote: »

When you have a team -28.5 and they win by 28 that is a pretty bitter pill to take sometimes, superbly frustrating.

Being a bit pedantic, but numbers like that are very important. Huge difference between taking -27.5 and -28.5 for example. If you had an unimportant -30.5 and it landed 30 you could rightly be hopping mad!

Think the bucs look a small but of value later. The current lines are about as accurate as your going to get in an NFL season though. Bored pros have hammered them into place all summer

StringerBell

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Being a bit pedantic, but numbers like that are very important. Huge difference between taking -27.5 and -28.5 for example. If you had an unimportant -30.5 and it landed 30 you could rightly be hopping mad!

So I can't be frustrated by it is what you are telling me, ok then I feel much better thanks!

L.S.F

helimachoptor wrote: »

Just points.

2 seasons back I did quite well.

My system is take 150 and start betting week 2.
In general I'll go all in on that 150 and 2 years back over the season I ended up about 1k up but took some loses on the way.

Last season ended up 500 of hard cash down I didn't win and chased the dream but while I won some I was still down 500 of my own cash by season end.

This year I'll do the same. Take week 1 off and see how things go and then start from there.

I don't bet on other sports apart from a 5 Euro first goalscorer in the pub tbh so this ads a bit of excitement for me

I'm a fan of the Over/Under on individual player yardage. Had a bit of success the last two season, then tried to do it with mates so our stake was bigger and bombed (from their picks not mine :P ). If you have a route around you can get some great ones. Like a RB2 who will barley see many snaps at +/- 20 yards or so. Kapernick was quite high on rushing yards with the bookies last year where I picked up a few quid on under yardage a couple of times.
What I do is start with a tenner and put the winnings if it comes in on the next game/week and keep doing until I lose or cash out. Odds usually 5/6

I also do one or two 5 team handicap accas with odds usually returning 25/1

Never had any luck with first touchdown or anytime scorer in multiples so might knock them on the head completely.

Find there is great value in the accas for nfl, hit more in the 17 weeks last season than I have in the previous 2 years in football. When I fancy an underdog to win outright the handicap gives an added security if they only lose by a small margin.

Also going to do a random team acca on the handicap each week. Put all the teams on a random generator and the first five out I bet on. :pac:

Hulk Hands

StringerBell wrote: »

So I can't be frustrated by it is what you are telling me, ok then I feel much better thanks!

No, just that you weren't that unlucky is all. I wasn't trying to antagonise

StringerBell

Hulk Hands wrote: »

No, just that you weren't that unlucky is all. I wasn't trying to antagonise

I didn't claim to be unlucky, I said it was a bitter pill sometimes, last night being a particular one, and that is was superbly frustrating.

You were trying educate perhaps? It didn't tell me anything I didn't know so I responded in jest also.

No biggie

Bateman

Think I will have a fairly large cut off the overs in the Colts game

UnitedIrishman

UnitedIrishman wrote: »

Bucs +10, Packers +3, Chargers +14, Dolphins +17, Lions +12, Patriots +14.5, Redskins +10, Bills/Ravens under 51, Bengals/Jets under 50, Giants/Cowboys under 56 accumulator at 12/1:

Waiting on Pats +14.5 and Redskins +10 for this one to come in. Contemplating a cash out after the Pats game tonight maybe.

Guffy

gufc21 wrote: »

Chargers +7
Tb +3

Browns ML

ML doubles and treb of the above. Scratch that, did skins not browns in th doub and treb ml

Did a few 1 euro accy anytime td scorers too for the lols

Had piled on the chargers. Got worried for a bit in the 4th but scraped it in the end thanks to no xp in overtime.

Skins ml tomorrow is all thats left for one of the doubles so onto next week.

JaMarcusHustle

JaMarcusHustle wrote: »

On 4 underdog doubles today:

Jets +1.5
Jaguars +4.5

Bills +3
Lions +3

Chargers +7
Patriots +7

Dolphins +10.5
Redskins +3

6/7 so far with Redskins to play tomorrow. A good day for the underdogs.

Bateman

Hulk Hands wrote: »

No, just that you weren't that unlucky is all. I wasn't trying to antagonise

I would say most pros would place luck second-most-important behind only “getting the best of the number” in terms of important factors for long-term winning.

Yes 28 is a relatively important number as it’s a multiple of 7 but when teams win by larger margins, the chances of the large margin landing on a multiple of a TD is reduced I would have thought (guessing!)?

If luck wasn’t a factor, then regression to the mean wouldn’t be such an important factor in NFL betting.

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

Looking at a 49ers & Redskins money line double tonight. I think there is a little value on both home underdogs

Guffy

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman wrote: »

Looking at a 49ers & Redskins money line double tonight. I think there is a little value on both home underdogs

Had meant to take a piece of the skins +3 but forgot. Will have a small bet on ml double tonight. Unlikely but if wash go back out to 3 i will be jumping on

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

Some interesting games over the weekend though no doubt, Skins will have a chance tonight. But I'm a redskins fan I always know if I am on them a little bit is the fan in me!