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FPL research help please.

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Comments

  • #32
    ElTel
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,672 ✭✭✭ElTel


    The season review thread that Paully D created has this info. (Just in case you forgot.)

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057597845


  • #33
    FHFC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,274 ✭✭✭✭FHFC


    ElTel wrote: »
    The season review thread that Paully D created has this info. (Just in case you forgot.)

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057597845

    I had. Brilliant.

    Have over 40 now and nearly enough to get along with.


  • #34
    Scorpion Sting
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,261 ✭✭✭✭Scorpion Sting


    It has total transfers but not hits though.


  • #35
    FHFC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,274 ✭✭✭✭FHFC


    Scorpion Sting wrote: »
    It has total transfers but not hits though.

    Yeah, but I'm happy to assume that the number of times people didn't use a transfer was negligible so the number of hits should be total transfers minus 35.


  • #36
    Scorpion Sting
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,261 ✭✭✭✭Scorpion Sting


    Okay well then I took 14 hits (-56) for an 8,102 finish.


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  • #37
    iroced
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,262 ✭✭✭iroced


    FHFC wrote: »
    I don't want to get into it that deeply really. Like I say I just want to provoke some thought, and challenge rigidity.

    But Busts point of not over valuing a hit with hindsight is worth a mention I think.

    Yeah I totally got what you're aiming to do.

    But, I was willing to point out that Busts example is incomplete though. Without knowing the player's real options before the GW, we have no idea if his 8 pts hit gained him 5, could have gained him 13 or "lost" him 18 because he highly considered Barkley with no hits who scored 25 pts. I mean, trying to assess whether your transfers/hits worked is only meaningful compared to what were your real options beforehand. Otherwise you can always over or undervalue them.


  • #38
    FHFC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,274 ✭✭✭✭FHFC


    iroced wrote: »
    Yeah I totally got what you're aiming to do.

    But, I was willing to point out that Busts example is incomplete though. Without knowing the player's real options before the GW, we have no idea if his 8 pts hit gained him 5, could have gained him 13 or "lost" him 18 because he highly considered Barkley with no hits who scored 25 pts. I mean, trying to assess whether your transfers/hits worked is only meaningful compared to what were your real options beforehand. Otherwise you can always over or undervalue them.

    Another more global, less time consuming metric which I'm gonna do tomorrow is to plot your GW rank and points hits.

    If you're making good decisions on those hits you'd expect to trend upwards in the 3 to 4 weeks after perhaps. Crude but an indicator I think.


  • #39
    FHFC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,274 ✭✭✭✭FHFC


    I finally got round to finishing off this piece of spoofing....seems well received so far.

    https://twitter.com/FFPundits/status/767726956284612608


  • #40
    Mr.Prodston
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,305 ✭✭✭✭Mr.Prodston


    FHFC wrote: »
    I finally got round to finishing off this piece of spoofing....seems well received so far.

    https://twitter.com/FFPundits/status/767726956284612608

    Preaching to the choir for me anyway.

    The whole hit philosophy can be boiled down to:

    "Oh you don't need to take a hit? That's great, well done on picking the right players at the right time without suffering a Monty Burns Softball losing 8 players in a matter of hours situation.

    Although if you do need to rectify a situation then that's okay too. That's why you have the facility to change players with a -4 and not lock in your GW1 team for the season."

    I'm also a big fan of the stats deliberately not conforming to a pattern therefore making us right, or not wrong :)


  • #41
    FHFC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,274 ✭✭✭✭FHFC


    Mr.Prodston wrote: »
    Preaching to the choir for me anyway.

    The whole hit philosophy can be boiled down to:

    "Oh you don't need to take a hit? That's great, well done on picking the right players at the right time without suffering a Monty Burns Softball losing 8 players in a matter of hours situation.

    Although if you do need to rectify a situation then that's okay too. That's why you have the facility to change players with a -4 and not lock in your GW1 team for the season."

    I'm also a big fan of the stats deliberately not conforming to a pattern therefore making us right, or not wrong :)

    Yeah nothing like using random half assed stats to make a point.

    Some guy replied on twitter saying he'd play a wildcard before taking a -4.

    Twitter currently full of experts warning people against 'wasting' their wildcard early as if it's a ridiculous thing to do. This forum has more FPL savvy than 99% of those peddling 'expert' advice on twitter (our own @FPLGeneral excepted of course :)).


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