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Insider information tip

  • 19-06-2016 6:08pm
    #1
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 541 ✭✭✭ poa


    Today I received some insider information.
    My source is very reliable.
    Alex Cannon is set up to win Big Brother.
    Enjoy your winnings.


«1

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 12,375 ✭✭✭✭ retalivity


    great stuff, will put 7 figures on it.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 541 ✭✭✭ poa


    retalivity wrote: »
    great stuff, will put 7 figures on it.

    Don't bite the hand that feeds you.
    Remember that when you take the p.iss out of me.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 541 ✭✭✭ poa


    Shame I can only get 73.50 max on with Paddypower.
    Betfair exchange to lump on it is then.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 40,086 ✭✭✭✭ Harry Palmr


    Show us your "bet slip" with a screen grab cheers. :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 684 ✭✭✭ ianburke


    i thought you didn't use betfair? there is no money up anyways i've been waiting to lay as i don't fancy the guy.

    i thought you were retired since last year...in another thread(2months back) you claimed to be working. surely you should have backed on betfair before telling us the cert? peanuts matched on this bloke i've been monitoring the market for the last day or two no sign of any proper bets coming


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 541 ✭✭✭ poa


    Show us your "bet slip" with a screen grab cheers. :)

    I don't go in for screenshotting my bets, nor do I get off on aftertiming either.
    A man's word is a man's word. That's good enough for me.
    I am not coming on here tipping this saying I lumped 10K on this etc am I? No.
    I am being straight, 73.50 is the max I can get on Paddypower.
    Now I am waiting for more liquidity on Betfair exchange so I can lump on.
    You see sometimes one has wait to get matched at value odds, get it?
    If the tip isn't for you, no problem.
    My contribution to this forum is to try and help people with a nice tip at good value odds, so they can make money.
    And what is your contribution in comparison? You slag my posts, as if they are bull.**** or something? You think I have to prove anything to you with a screenshot? No.
    How about you contribute something rather than trolling my posts?
    Or making some useful tips yourself?
    You see when it comes down to it, that's what people want to read.
    Not look at screenshots of someones bets feeding their ego.
    In the last 16 years of gambling I got asked for tips many times, and rarely gave them.
    Only when I have quality insider information, or I consider something a dead cert.
    Reason being I don't like losing money, nor do I like to see other lose money.
    So when I say my source is reliable, that's that.
    When I say I am backing this, that's that.
    I am not interested in doubters like yourself.
    Either lump on, or don't. I don't care either way; nor do I care if you believe what I say or not.
    What I do know, is that this tip is solid and will make me money.
    Sure as night follows day.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Bryce Pitiful Poplar


    Only the very inner circle over at Endemol would know who's lined up for £1m worth of future product sponsorship/appearances.

    Sure Alex is the current fav, but Hughie @7 is the only one going short, and perhaps the least annoying of the stooges.
    Fair enough though Alex and a few of those younger ladies (Aussie, Laura & twins) are the only ones that won't break mirrors.
    Certainly top3 for Alex. The lad with the tattoos that left probably needs an orange square 'highly irritant' logo label attached.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 541 ✭✭✭ poa


    ianburke wrote: »
    i thought you didn't use betfair? there is no money up anyways i've been waiting to lay as i don't fancy the guy.

    i thought you were retired since last year...in another thread(2months back) you claimed to be working. surely you should have backed on betfair before telling us the cert? peanuts matched on this bloke i've been monitoring the market for the last day or two no sign of any proper bets coming

    OK I will answer all your questions here.
    I had 3 revenue streams. A share in a business, a job, and gambling.
    Of the 3 gambling was my biggest income over the last 16 years.
    Last year I retired from work at 38 and bought my apartment. I then sold my share in a business. Gambling on a heavy level was the last thing of 3 to wind down. Partly because I didn't want to turn pro-level and put in 16-18 hour days; and partly because I don't need the income from it now.
    Typically I put 2-3 months research into each bet, and bet 500-2K per bet these days 3-4 times a year. I like boxing, Oscars, politics, tennis, bets.
    Sometimes I will also get involved in reality/specials markets if I have quality insider information.
    Over the years I have done OK from gambling and got what I wanted out of it. But the cost is that I am now limited with most of the major bookies to nothing. I can still lump on when I drive to the North, or use friends to place bets for me.
    I still use Paddypower and Betfair exchange, although I prefer Paddypower as I like the cash in cash out rather than depositing via Paypal from one of my bank accounts.
    On occasion I have been invited to lump on as part of a syndicate, reason being we can move markets with backing and laying in volume in order to get better odds on the exchange.
    Personally at my peak I regularly lumped 5 figures on. As part of syndicates I lumped on 6, and together the max I was part of was 7. In my 16 years I was in on a 7 figure bet 3 times. These bets were dead certs at very low odds.
    I don't win all the time, and there are upsets sometimes on odds-on favourites, that is a given.
    I have lost 12K on a single 50/50 bet when there was an upset. And over the years have lost 1-5K in a day many times. But I have also won many times and this has offset the losses.
    One can have a good run, and a bad run; that's gambling for you.
    I don't just come on here and go on about all the big wins, I talk about the losses too. That is the mark of a true gambler, someone who tells it as it is.
    I consider these bets to be solid; Bremain, Cannon, Fury, Clinton.
    Like I said before, I don't give tips unless I consider it a dead cert, or I have solid insider information.
    With Cannon, I consider my source to be very reliable.
    I hope that answers your questions.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Bryce Pitiful Poplar


    Actually Alex to be in the Top3 @2.0, isn't the worst idea in the world, actually fairly good.
    Double you ROI with perhaps circa only 20% risk factor in the real world,
    (or 0% risk at all if you landed a miniaturised spy drone in through the window over in W14).

    bigbruv.png

    Still available as a selection within an mixed accum (W'Hill), unlike some other upcoming novelties.

    top3fin.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 684 ✭✭✭ ianburke


    it's fine you posted a tip and it's 4/1 no problem. but there is no money coming on betfair for whatever reason.

    the bookies will be quick to limit when they see a big bet on a market like that. pp max liability here is less than 1k so a bet of 200 and you can kiss your account goodbye if it wins or if he shortens in price. the shop would be the place to do it surely?


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 541 ✭✭✭ poa


    Only the very inner circle over at Endemol would know who's lined up for £1m worth of future product sponsorship/appearances.

    Sure Alex is the current fav, but Hughie @7 is the only one going short, and perhaps the least annoying of the stooges.
    Fair enough though Alex and a few of those younger ladies (Aussie, Laura & twins) are the only ones that won't break mirrors.
    Certainly top3 for Alex. The lad with the tattoos that left probably needs an orange square 'highly irritant' logo label attached.

    I will say this.
    Mokkingbird.com handle bookings for both Vicky Pattison and Alex Cannon.
    Channel 5 have plans for Alex.
    Alex is set up to win Big Brother.
    I think you get the point.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 541 ✭✭✭ poa


    ianburke wrote: »
    it's fine you posted a tip and it's 4/1 no problem. but there is no money coming on betfair for whatever reason.

    the bookies will be quick to limit when they see a big bet on a market like that. pp max liability here is less than 1k so a bet of 200 and you can kiss your account goodbye if it wins or if he shortens in price. the shop would be the place to do it surely?

    Lack of liquidity is the reason.
    Its early days, so money has yet to be lumped on.
    Hence why I am holding off to get matched at bigger odds when the layers add weight.
    I want to see a small drift from 4.0 before I lump on.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Bryce Pitiful Poplar


    [email protected], [email protected] and perhaps one of the better looking token ladies @4.5+ (for top3 places) featuring in a mixed accum could be a good 3 way.
    The rest of them, in the superficial series might just get the ugly stick as a prize.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 541 ✭✭✭ poa


    [email protected], [email protected] and perhaps one of the better looking token ladies @4.5+ (top3) featuring in a mixed accum could be a good 3 way.
    The rest of them, in the superficial series might just get the ugly stick as a prize.

    I quite fancy: Bremain, Cannon, Fury, Clinton.
    I am on in singles anyway, but an accumulator would be a nice little top up.
    Bremain and Clinton are in the bag. The only risk is Fury, but I feel its minimal.
    With Cannon, my source gave me some very heavy wins on Jim Davidson, and James Hill winning CBB respectively.
    The funny thing is, I never get involved with BB; only CBB. But I got a Skype call today from my source with solid insider information.
    Too good to resist when it comes from that source. Usually I only get information on CBB, so when BB insider knowledge comes its something special and certain for sure.
    I can tell you there are some very, very heavy hitters waiting for market liquidity to lump on Cannon when the layers wake up.
    These people very rarely make errors when it comes to reality/special bets.
    I reckon the layers wake up this week, liquidity comes, and then it's time to lump on the Betfair exchange.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 541 ✭✭✭ poa


    [email protected], [email protected] and perhaps one of the better looking token ladies @4.5+ (for top3 places) featuring in a mixed accum could be a good 3 way.
    The rest of them, in the superficial series might just get the ugly stick as a prize.

    I am hoping for Hughie to shorten to create enough market distortion to cause a drift on Cannon from 4.0 out to 5.0 or even 6.0
    I reckon there is more value to be had this week on our jolly.
    All aboard passengers, have your tickets ready, the train to winnersville will soon be departing.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 541 ✭✭✭ poa


    Nearly 27K total with 8K matched on Cannon at the moment.
    I need the layers to wake up to provide more liquidity in the market.
    Nothing available at 5.5.
    What we need here is some market distortion this week.
    I want to see 1-2K available at 5.0 or 6.0 to make it value.
    73.50 allowed on Paddypower at 4.3 is a joke.
    The bookies don't want the liability on our jolly as he is home and hosed already.


  • Registered Users Posts: 684 ✭✭✭ ianburke


    haven't heard that term "market distortion" in a while! you're not the same guy who did his balls on boyhood to win the oscars a few years back?

    the layers will run a mile when they see any money coming on alex. these markets are the same every year. drib drab until it gets down to the final few. even sticking up a 20 quid every day or so is hard to get matched. surely the bookies is the place to bet on this as you have a wide choice at roughly the same price.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 541 ✭✭✭ poa


    ianburke wrote: »
    haven't heard that term "market distortion" in a while! you're not the same guy who did his balls on boyhood to win the oscars a few years back?

    Market distortion is a common term by layers and backers on the exchange.
    Sometimes backers aren't familiar with it though.
    We could do with some right now to force a drift on Cannon. Hughie shortening or another runner will be enough to cause it. This is the irony of the exchange, layers are always in the market when you don't need them; but thin on the ground when one does.
    All I want is someone to put up 1-2K at 5.0 or 6.0 this week. I may have to take what I can get trickling it on down to 4.0; but its frustrating on a dead cert when one wants value.
    And with regards to that guy, no it's not me.
    I wouldn't be surprised if the staff at Mokkingbird.com and all of Vicky Pattisons friends and family are on Cannon. His bookings are full up for this year thanks to Channel 5.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 541 ✭✭✭ poa


    A busy couple of months winning.
    Bremain this Thursday.
    Fury on 9th July.
    Cannon around 17th August.
    Then just sit back and wait for Clinton to win POTUS in November.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Bryce Pitiful Poplar


    One concern would be that the winner would ideally need to be the type that could host or at least co-present future reality/chat type shows, not sure whom out that bunch could do that best. Even 30sec TV ads for hair-gel etc also need a certain type to perform. Maybe you've all seen RoryMc selling Santander's financial services on screen, it's not pretty, he's best kept out on the open greens.

    i.e. Talk with good intonation, listen, process, whilst also taking direction from a voice in the ear and knowing which camera/script to look at. Requires a bit of grey matter along with unlimited screen energy. The Aussie girl seems to have some smarts and looks.

    Imagine everyone on the show is booked up for the next year pantos, supermarket openings and xmas lights switch ons.
    They're not a pretty bunch this year with a few exceptions, reckon that will ultimately separate the top3 from all the others.


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 541 ✭✭✭ poa


    I wonder if Channel 5 approached Mokkingbird.com after they had selected Cannon from their books; in the same way that I'm A Celebrity selected Vicky Pattison to be their winner. Simon Cowell has used agencies for years to select his X-Factor winners. So I suppose it's no surprise the reality shows do the same. Funny how Vicky and Cannon are having a showmance these days isn't it? Just a coincidence they are both under the Mokkingbird wing of course. She gets to win IAC, and he gets BB. Good business for all concerned.


  • Registered Users Posts: 37,371 ✭✭✭✭ Mellor


    poa wrote: »
    Personally at my peak I regularly lumped 5 figures on. As part of syndicates I lumped on 6, and together the max I was part of was 7. In my 16 years I was in on a 7 figure bet 3 times. These bets were dead certs at very low odds.
    In the previous thread you said people in the syndicate each put on 7 figures. Not you are saying it was between you. You realize how story changing means people won't believe it.
    There no point saying you bet 7 figures if you only invested $1000 yourself.
    How many people in the syndacate? Equal shares?

    You also said you were going to place 7 figures on a tennis match. But bailed on advice from a pro. That suggests it wasn't a syndicate that time, but your own bet.
    On occasion I have been invited to lump on as part of a syndicate, reason being we can move markets with backing and laying in volume in order to get better odds on the exchange.
    On an exchange? That's not how it works.
    Betting large volumes will cause the price to decrease, your average price will be less by betting that way.

    That is the mark of a true gambler, someone who tells it as it is.
    I consider these bets to be solid; Bremain, Cannon, Fury, Clinton.
    As you know, I share some of these picks with you.
    In particular I like Fury. I posted this in the other thread not sure if you seen it.




    You've already placed a 1k @ 1.9 bet with PP? And you are placing another 1K after the Bremain wins (I think it will too btw) sfor $2k total. Or is it 1k total.

    If you've already place it,, no harm 1.9 is a good price. But I think the odds might creep up before the fight. Better than 1.9 is available now in shops and online with a few bookies, I'd expect 1.95 or 2.0 to open up (2.25 with BWin)


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 541 ✭✭✭ poa


    Mellor wrote: »
    In the previous thread you said people in the syndicate each put on 7 figures. Not you are saying it was between you. You realize how story changing means people won't believe it.
    There no point saying you bet 7 figures if you only invested $1000 yourself.
    How many people in the syndacate? Equal shares?

    You also said you were going to place 7 figures on a tennis match. But bailed on advice from a pro. That suggests it wasn't a syndicate that time, but your own bet.


    On an exchange? That's not how it works.
    Betting large volumes will cause the price to decrease, your average price will be less by betting that way.



    As you know, I share some of these picks with you.
    In particular I like Fury. I posted this in the other thread not sure if you seen it.




    You've already placed a 1k @ 1.9 bet with PP? And you are placing another 1K after the Bremain wins (I think it will too btw) sfor $2k total. Or is it 1k total.

    If you've already place it,, no harm 1.9 is a good price. But I think the odds might creep up before the fight. Better than 1.9 is available now in shops and online with a few bookies, I'd expect 1.95 or 2.0 to open up (2.25 with BWin)

    Give it a rest lad, seriously.
    You already killed a thread. Now you are killing this one fast.
    I have given my tips, either lump on or don't. But spare us all from your trolling and stupid questions.
    I have already given enough information on me personally, and my gambling history. That's enough.
    You may or may not be aware, but no one cares about my gambling history; so you shouldn't either.
    No one wants to read your trolling or questions about me either, it's boring and just kills a thread fast by derailing it.
    You know what people like to read about? Insider information and tips that are going to make them money. Value bets like this one with odds of 4.0
    Take my advice, lay off all the questions about me. Post your opinions on this tip; or better still post some tips of your own.
    For the record, the only one getting shown up by your posts is yourself here; not me.
    You see people are grateful for a winning tip, people that kill threads like yourself are just seen as a dick.
    Now have you got all that crystal clear?
    Good, then best of luck with your bets.


  • Registered Users Posts: 37,371 ✭✭✭✭ Mellor


    poa wrote: »
    Give it a rest lad, seriously.
    You already killed a thread. Now you are killing this one fast.
    I have given my tips, either lump on or don't. But spare us all from your trolling and stupid questions.
    Why you getting so annoyed?
    If there no spurious at play, they should be routine questions.
    I have already given enough information on me personally, and my gambling history. That's enough.
    You may or may not be aware, but no one cares about my gambling history; so you shouldn't either.
    No one wants to read your trolling or questions about me either, it's boring and just kills a thread fast by derailing it.
    You know what people like to read about? Insider information and tips that are going to make them money. Value bets like this one with odds of 4.0
    There has been a posters in past who posted similar tips and advice. Backed up by claims of betting success, even screenshots. Encouraging others to follow suite. But it was all fabricated. Which is a pretty shitty thing to do to other posters.
    Those people were obviously banned. It's looked down upon, for obvious reasons. Surely you understand that, and why people try to protect themselves.
    For the record, the only one getting shown up by your posts is yourself here; not me.
    You see people are grateful for a winning tip, people that kill threads like yourself are just seen as a dick.
    Now have you got all that crystal clear?
    Good, then best of luck with your bets.
    Drop the act. And lay off the person abuse mate. No need for it.
    Take my advice, lay off all the questions about me. Post your opinions on this tip; or better still post some tips of your own.

    I'm not trying to have a go at you. I'm genuinely interested in the Tyson Fury bet/tip. Most of my betting in on fight sports. I was discussing it here as you mentioned it, I didn't see a boxing betting thread.

    I'll be taking Fury. But I think he may creep up in odds when the big Russain money comes in.
    What do you think? Safer to take it now, or take the risk in waiting. Could be the difference in


  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Regional Abroad Moderators Posts: 2,574 Mod ✭✭✭✭ TrueDub


    Folks, this thread is a mess. I'm not interested in handing out bans or cards, yet, but everyone needs to watch their step. The Boards rule is "don't be a dick", and it's being violated by several people here. If you can't say something constructive, please don't post.

    There will no more warnings - bans are my next step. Think before you post, whatever you're planning on posting!


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 541 ✭✭✭ poa


    Still only 73.50 max bet allowed with Paddypower.
    And no liquidity on Betfair exchange.
    In between a rock and hard place with this one.
    It's like Scotty T all over again, dead cert favourite from day one, but can't get any weight on with the bookies.
    Looks like collect my Bremain winnings Friday then drive to the North to lump on Cannon it is then.

    http://imageshack.com/a/img923/3470/mi7x09.jpg


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Bryce Pitiful Poplar


    Hughie still going short on most of the books, along with the Alex chap for top3 position is a fairly safe combo. There's bound to be a lady the final three too. Hughie is probably the least offensive, the harmless chap is a like the bloke for the IT crowd, with less testosterone, obviously.

    Probably worth differentiating between 'insider information' and 'very strong inclination supported by events and calculated logic' however. They're similar but different. 80% chance he'll do well or even win, but only direct 1st hand information from the series producer could verify. The show is full of twists and tales, the tattoo lad had by far the most media attention of all contenders combined, yet sizzled out very early.

    They keep saying this one is the very last series, if only it was.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 541 ✭✭✭ poa


    Hughie still going short on most of the books, along with the Alex chap for top3 position is a fairly safe combo. There's bound to be a lady the final three too. Hughie is probably the least offensive, the harmless chap is a like the bloke for the IT crowd, with less testosterone, obviously.

    Probably worth differentiating between 'insider information' and 'very strong inclination supported by events and calculated logic' however. They're similar but different. 80% chance he'll do well or even win, but only direct 1st hand information from the series producer could verify. The show is full of twists and tales, the tattoo lad had by far the most media attention of all contenders combined, yet sizzled out very early.

    They keep saying this one is the very last series, if only it was.

    For obvious reasons, I cannot reveal my source. But I can tell you my biggest wins on CBB on Jim Davidson and James Hill came from their inside information. However they don't usually get information on BB only CBB.
    Scotty T was another one I got a call about, and that was before he was even confirmed as going into the house; so I wasn't sure, but backed on the reliability of the source against my instinct to be honest.
    I then regretted not lumping more on Scotty T as it became apparent he was the producers pick to win from day one.
    I see the likes of Hughie as a decoy, or false favourite if you like. The producers don't want to make it too obvious who their jolly is to early on as the ratings dip.
    It was the same modus operandi with Scotty T last time. Editted out and not given a main narrative in the house early on. The loud ones (like Hughie) took the early edits. Then later they brought the jolly to the front with more edits, so it looked a convincing win, and pumped the ratings up.
    I am going 2K in on Cannon, and wouldn't be driving an hour to the North for nothing I can promise you that. Nice odds of 4.3 means its value.
    I won't be waiting until the final week when he goes sub 2.0 to lump on.
    Put it this way, I know some very, very heavy hitters that are backing on this source as soon as the liquidity in the market comes from layers.
    It may take 1-2 weeks for the layers to lump on, but soon the market will wake up to Cannon being the producer's chosen one.
    I regard this as safe as betting on Bremain or Clinton, that is how sure I am.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Bryce Pitiful Poplar


    4.3 certainly is good value, 2.0 for top 3 position is also great.
    Another plus, is that this tv market is available in a few places as an Accum selection with other mixed/sport events.

    Separately If the Bremain goes ahead, surely it can only be a matter of time for Osbourne to be next Con leader.
    DC will be looking for extended holiday time later in 2016.

    at 7.0 value, Lads have this sticking out, most others only 4.5 for GO.
    Boris as low as 3.0 is probably a staged stooge in all the recent drama.
    Pity the two novelty markets can't be combined i.e. 30.1 or 14.


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 541 ✭✭✭ poa


    4.3 certainly is good value, 2.0 for top 3 position is also great.
    Another plus, is that this tv market is available in a few places as an Accum selection with other mixed/sport events.

    Separately If the Bremain goes ahead, surely it can only be a matter of time for Osbourne to be next Con leader.
    DC will be looking for extended holiday time later in 2016.

    at 7.0 value, Lads have this sticking out, most others only 4.5 for GO.
    Boris as low as 3.0 is probably a staged stooge in all the recent drama.
    Pity the two novelty markets can't be combined i.e. 30.1 or 14.

    Interesting points, I concur.
    With regard to Osborne; Cameron, Osborne, Boris, were all Bullingdon Club members. Cameron and Boris in 1987, and Osborne 1992 respectively.
    The way it works is they will have done a deal between them. I reckon Boris agreed to take the hit on Brexit, in return for PM after Cameron. Osborne isn't next in line, Boris is. The Cabinet will back whoever Cameron chooses to be his successor; and that will be Boris over Osborne.
    That's the way the Bullingdon Club work, jobs for the boys.
    So I reckon backing Boris for next PM is a tasty bet.

    http://imageshack.com/a/img924/8622/GIyox1.jpg

    http://imageshack.com/a/img921/8093/ry39mz.jpg


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