2016 Arc

tryfix

A bit early in the season to be thinking of the Arc but the Arc picture is beginning to materialise and we could do with a thread for Arc news and views.

Paddy Power odds + others odds for the non quoted on PP.

Postponed 5/1, Minding 5/1, Harzand 10/1, US Army Ranger 10/1, A Shin Hikari 10/1 ( other bookmakers ), New Bay 12/1, Duramente 10/1, Almanzour 16/1, Makahiki 16/1?, Found 16/1, So Mi Dar 20/1. Zarak 20/1, One Foot in Heaven 25/1. Order Of St George 25/1.

The stand out there is A Shin Hikari at 10/1, best horse in the world ATM, likes all kinds of going and the Japanese are obsessed with winning the Arc so he should run in it, worth thinking about before he runs at Ascot. Found 20/1 with some bookies is probably not good enough but has the race as her target.

Pinesky

I wonder is the Arc an afterthought for English and Irish trainers . English Derby & king George seem to be the prime targets with juddmonte/ Irish champion next .
French trainers train specifically for the Arc .it takes a champion to win the summer and autumn principal races .

HarshOstrich

It took me a while to come around but only bad luck could see postponed beaten in my eyes.
Visually he has been very impressive

posturingpat

I don't think it can be read literally but a Shin Hikari last run was from a different planet. Postponed won't see which way he went if that runs as good as it looked. Have a funny feeling this postponed bubble will be bust before the year is out.

tryfix

posturingpat wrote: »

I don't think it can be read literally but a Shin Hikari last run was from a different planet. Postponed won't see which way he went if that runs as good as it looked. Have a funny feeling this postponed bubble will be bust before the year is out.

It's hard to know at this time of the year. There's a huge chance the Japanese horse will end up a very short price and then flop in the Arc.

I thought Postponed was going to be awesome after winning the Voltigeur as a 3yo and then he was a bit disappointing being more of a Gp2 horse as a 4yo when his King George win was in a substandard renewal of that race. This year he's a much stronger and faster horse ( up to OR 124+ ) whatever Varian is doing is working ) and the Dubawi's improve with age.

He's likely to win the King George again this year from where his price for the Arc will drop. His trainer managed to get a 4th in the Arc out of Kingston Hill and Postponed has already got winning experience at Longchamp in last year's Arc trials. He's a fair price ATM for the most obvious winner bar Hazarand.

If Hazarand goes on to win the Irish Derby or King George or Irish Champion Stakes then he becomes the most likely winner.

tryfix

I forgot to stick in Fascinating Rock into the prices quoted in the OP, he's a 16/1-20/1 shot for the race, has top soft ground form and is being trained for the Arc according to Weld.

Do ye think he's up to winning at the 12f trip in the Arc?

Wicklow Brave

Yeah if it's soft, Fascinating Rock has a big chance. Decent price.

I liked Found for the race earlier in the season but I'm thinking now she just isn't as good as I thought she was.

Minding would be my fancy atm. Not really ground dependent, getting weight. She'd beat Harzand off levels imo and Postponed or any other older colt would find it very difficult giving her 11lbs. The trip in that company wouldn't be a problem aswell by October.

Harry Angstrom

Yutaka Take is enough to put me off A Shin Hikari.

Lt Dan

Yes A Shin Hikari's run was impressive on bad ground, but let us not get too carried away here. Bar New Bay, who was in a bad need of a run and apparently has feet issues, who did he beat? I am not sure about whether New Bay is that good, but the rest of the field was not Group 1 material.

diomed

Run at Chantilly in 2016.

tryfix

Is this the Arc winner? Harzand showed great resolution and plenty of tactical speed yesterday but the winning performance was moderate enough. We don't know if he was undervooked yesterday but with the antibiotic excuse it's fair to say he was and he was comfortably on top again at the very end.

ATM he's the most likely winner ( decent price too ) as he will now be trained for the Arc and the record of such well targetted Derby winners in the Arc is excellent.

tryfix

Looking through the odds there's an awful lot of dodgy prospects close up in the betting. The 2 Japanese horses A Shin Hikari ( flop ) and Duramente ( ruled out after injury ) are still in the betting at 16/1 with horses like Deauville and far worse hopes not far behind them.

I see A Shin Hikari and Found conqueror My Dream Boat back on 189/1 for the Arc. He's a young fast improving GP1 winning horse who hasn't raced beyond 10f yet but it was he who finished like a train against proven stayers in the top class POW at Ascot. Tasty...

Warper

I fancy Le Croissanaire, is being trained for the race and so far unbeaten though fillies have a horrible record in the Arc, only the brilliant filly Zarkava has won it. Still she looks good

Peintre Celebre

Warper wrote: »

I fancy Le Croissanaire, is being trained for the race and so far unbeaten though fillies have a horrible record in the Arc, only the brilliant filly Zarkava has won it. Still she looks good

There have been three fillies win since Zarkava


Le Croissanaire is unbeaten and could be anything really but I'd question how good the fillies are in France this year. Still stand by Order of St George but the Arc can be a funny race and at Chantilly it could be funnily run

Itziger

Warper wrote: »

I fancy Le Croissanaire, is being trained for the race and so far unbeaten though fillies have a horrible record in the Arc, only the brilliant filly Zarkava has won it. Still she looks good

Wha'????

Treve? Remember her?

Warper

Itziger wrote: »

Wha'????

Treve? Remember her?

Ya sorry dont know how i forgot her - duh

So maybe the tides are turning again - Minding would have a great chance if she were to run as well

califano

Urban Sea!

Shemale

califano wrote: »

Urban Sea!

She went to deed poll....

Lt Dan

Shemale wrote: »

She went to deed poll....

And mother to both Galileo and Sea The Stars

tryfix

Big Arc Trial on in a few minutes at Saint Cloud. The unbeaten monster stayer Vazirabad ( shades of Order Of St George ) going back to 12f and taking on the likes of Eagle Top and Erupt who've gone backward after looking top class. The danger looks to be the Fastnet Rock colt One Foot In Heaven a son of that fine French mare Pride who bids to prove that he's got enough about him to get competitive in the Arc.

uxiant

Vazirabad is a gelding so can't run in the Arc.

tryfix

Nice type the winner Silverwave, likes the trip and was a 5 1/2l 10th to Golden Horn in last year's Arc. He'd a horrific draw in 17th in last year's Arc and is worth respecting if he's better drawn in this year's. Erupt in 2nd had an awful lot of ground to make up from the rear and stayed on well.

Silverwave was beaten 12l by A Shin Hikari in that Prix D'Ispahan. That's two winners of top Gp1s from that race since that were thrashed out of sight in it, what the hell is the story with A Shin Hikari?

Lt Dan

tryfix wrote: »

Nice type the winner Silverwave, likes the trip and was a 5 1/2l 10th to Golden Horn in last year's Arc. He'd a horrific draw in 17th in last year's Arc and is worth respecting if he's better drawn in this year's. Erupt in 2nd had an awful lot of ground to make up from the rear and stayed on well.

Silverwave was beaten 12l by A Shin Hikari in that Prix D'Ispahan. That's two winners of top Gp1s from that race since that were thrashed out of sight in it, what the hell is the story with A Shin Hikari?

Perhaps we should not, despite winning well in Hong Kong and despite running on unfavored ground in France and being his first European race, and subsequent form (and who was in that race) maybe, we should be careful in estimating the quality of the Japanese horse's win in France. I wonder how much of that race was down to jockey errors on part of the other horses for giving so much to the Japanese horse. You saw in the how Dettori and co were quick to attack the Japanese just before the bend at Ascot.

If you watch the pre race footage of the horse in the saddling area, you would see he was giving his groom a very hard time before going into the parade ring

Cox said that My Dream Boat got no run in France, and New Bay (who I am not sure about) had set backs (hoof problems)

tryfix

Things are hotting up for the Arc, the formerly imperious Order Of St George is supposedly heading there and is available at from 12/1 up to 20/1 with Sky Bet. If he turns up it wouldn't be a huge surprise if he made the frame, if he turns up fully on song and gets a bit of cut in the ground then what a race we're in for. It seems his Melbourne Cup weight has put his Australian owners off that race and pushed them towards the Arc. Thoughts? I think he makes a nice ew bet at the current odds.


Paddy Power odds

Postponed 3/1
Almanzor 7/2
Le Cressonniere 11/2
Makahiki 7/1
Found 8/1
Minding 8/1
Harzand 10/1
Left Hand 12/1
Fascinating Rock 16/1
Order Of St George 16/1
Silverwave 20/1
So Mi Dar 20/1
Idaho 25/1
Midterm 25/1


Out of that bunch I still sort of like Harzand, forgive him his injury stained Leopardstown run and he's a proper champion class 12f horse.

Like the Japanese horse for his unflashy easy win in his trial but 7/1 is crap considering how close Midterm and the other horse were to him.

How good is Postponed when Highland Reel got so close to him at York and let the form down at Leopardstown?

The fillies Le Cressonniere and Minding would be high on my list of potential winners if they turn up, simply because there's not much brilliance on display from the rest with Almanzor unlikely to run.

Lt Dan

tryfix wrote: »

Things are hotting up for the Arc, the formerly imperious Order Of St George is supposedly heading there and is available at from 12/1 up to 20/1 with Sky Bet. If he turns up it wouldn't be a huge surprise if he made the frame, if he turns up fully on song and gets a bit of cut in the ground then what a race we're in for. It seems his Melbourne Cup weight has put his Australian owners off that race and pushed them towards the Arc. Thoughts? I think he makes a nice ew bet at the current odds.


Paddy Power odds

Postponed 3/1
Almanzor 7/2
Le Cressonniere 11/2
Makahiki 7/1
Found 8/1
Minding 8/1
Harzand 10/1
Left Hand 12/1
Fascinating Rock 16/1
Order Of St George 16/1
So Mi Dar 20/1
Idaho 25/1
Midterm 25/1


Out of that bunch I still sort of like Harzand, forgive him his injury stained Leopardstown run and he's a proper champion class 12f horse.

Like the Japanese horse for his unflashy easy win in his trial but 7/1 is crap considering how close Midterm and the other horse were to him.

How good is Postponed when Highland Reel got so close to him at York and let the form down at Leopardstown?

The fillies Le Cressonniere and Minding would be high on my list of potential winners if they turn up, simply because there's not much brilliance on display from the rest with Almanzor unlikely to run.

Is New Bay going to the Arc or are they keeping him for the British Champions Stakes? A lot to ask of Midterm to run here despite a good come back run in the prix neil. Would like soft ground

But for his recent run (giving weight it should be noted), I would not be dismissive of Fascinating Rock, we nearly forgot about him

gc2685

What about Protectionist, currently trading at 300+ on the fair for small money. German horses are consistently underrated and this lad has looked a beast since he came back to Wohler from Australia.

Lt Dan

gc2685 wrote: »

What about Protectionist, currently trading at 300+ on the fair for small money. German horses are consistently underrated and this lad has looked a beast since he came back to Wohler from Australia.

They have some fine stayers. Definitely underrated and Wohler is an excellent trainer. Remember 2013 King George winner and Arc contender (before she got ill, Murtagh's last ride in the Arc) Novellist? Of course there is Danedream (other German Trainer)

Protectionist won a big Group 2 in France the year he won at Melbourne.

Ignore his form in Australia after that. I am convinced that most of the trainers haven't a clue how to deal with quality horses, and if they are geldings , all the better at least they can be flogged.

Protectionist, in Australia, after winning Melbourne, and being 10- 15 F horse in France and Germany, was made run at 7-8 f on being weights (beaten by horses carrying as less as 8-2 stone)

It is remarkable, regardless of the standard of racing in Germany, that he got back to winning ways so quickly. Compare that to say, Sea Moon

tryfix

Lt Dan wrote: »

Is New Bay going to the Arc or are they keeping him for the British Champions Stakes? A lot to ask of Midterm to run here despite a good come back run in the prix neil. Would like soft ground

But for his recent run (giving weight it should be noted), I would not be dismissive of Fascinating Rock, we nearly forgot about him

I can't see any stories saying that he won't run and has Fabre anything better to send there, as a Dubawi who finished 3rd last year and who could be reasonably expected to improve a few lbs I can't see why they wouldn't run him again.

My problem with Midterm is that he was no great shakes early in the season and is flattered by his proximity to Makahiki in the Arc TriaL. He's entitled to come on plenty for that run but surely not enough to be up to challenging for an Arc win.

Can't figure what's going on with Fascinating Rock, why didn't he run in Leopardstown at his ideal trip? If he's well I'd imagine they'll keep him fresh for an attempt to win a seconD English Champion stakes. He'd be worthy of respect if he ran in the Arc but what are the chances that he'll turn up there?

tryfix

gc2685 wrote: »

What about Protectionist, currently trading at 300+ on the fair for small money. German horses are consistently underrated and this lad has looked a beast since he came back to Wohler from Australia.

The 300/1 tells you of the likelihood of his turning up for the Arc. Worth a nibble on the off chance but don't expect to get a run for your money.

I'm a bit surprised Zarak ain't quoted, he has followed practically the same path as New Bay did last year and he was a closing 1L second to Almanzor over 10f.

Lt Dan

tryfix wrote: »

I can't see any stories saying that he won't run and has Fabre anything better to send there, as a Dubawi who finished 3rd last year and who could be reasonably expected to improve a few lbs I can't see why they wouldn't run him again.

My problem with Midterm is that he was no great shakes early in the season and is flattered by his proximity to Makahiki in the Arc TriaL. He's entitled to come on plenty for that run but surely not enough to be up to challenging for an Arc win.

Can't figure what's going on with Fascinating Rock, why didn't he run in Leopardstown at his ideal trip? If he's well I'd imagine they'll keep him fresh for an attempt to win a seconD English Champion stakes. He'd be worthy of respect if he ran in the Arc but what are the chances that he'll turn up there?

Midterm being Midday's first might have something to do with it. Stoute has no one else either.I would not be surprised if they will send him to both the Arc and British Champions Stake if he got into the top 7 at the Arc (yes, I know, only 2 weeks between the races). Real question is, who will ride him? Will not be Smullen or Moore. Who has Frankie got? Midterm is not even guaranteed to run well at the British Champions Stakes. Would prefer to see him run in another Group 2 (where though?) and then just prepare for next year.

New Bay on the other had, I am not too convinced that he is a 12 f horse, but, he ran reasonably well at Leopardstown considering his draw (yes the winner was drawn next to him but New Bay had big issues at the start of the year, like many French horses) He is too good not to try the Arc, but depending on who turns up (which we won't know until a few days after the Arc) I would like to see him try the British Champion Stakes. I assume they have Flintshire for the Breeders Cup Turf (and I am doubtful he will match any decent European based horse, maybe he is another Main Sequence under a different trainer, and , er the drugs)

Fascinating Rock? I wonder would they consider trying both Arc and British Champions Stakes , hardly (I, know, only two weeks apart)? Smullen would not want to miss both horses so probably the later? Good money in that British Champions Stakes. It was not so long ago that FR was Weld's big Arc hope and Smullen not sure about Harzand and the Derby but referring to the Leger (Weld of course was quick to rule nothing out)

Speaking of the British Champions Stakes, that too might be a cracker. They are moving the race to new ground at Ascot, hoping for good ground. There are some horses coming back from injury or bad form who might take up a spot. Eg Midterm, Dar Re Me, New Bay....

Peintre Celebre

Had a small bet on New Bay at 36 on bf after he won a gr.2 a few weeks ago I was still quite pleased with his run in the champion. He might not be good enough but you can easily see him coming in the first four or five. Still not on the Postponed band wagon. I'd be raging if he was good enough to win an Arc

Lt Dan

uxiant wrote: »

Vazirabad is a gelding so can't run in the Arc.

Surprised that he did not try out for one of the Cups in the UK (Yorkshire Cup Prize money is okay) and then try Melbourne . He already won in Dubai against the mighty Big Orange, so travelling won't be an issue and ground might be suitable. Suppose they had notions of Group 1 glory instead.

Lt Dan

tryfix wrote: »

Nice type the winner Silverwave, likes the trip and was a 5 1/2l 10th to Golden Horn in last year's Arc. He'd a horrific draw in 17th in last year's Arc and is worth respecting if he's better drawn in this year's. Erupt in 2nd had an awful lot of ground to make up from the rear and stayed on well.

Silverwave was beaten 12l by A Shin Hikari in that Prix D'Ispahan. That's two winners of top Gp1s from that race since that were thrashed out of sight in it, what the hell is the story with A Shin Hikari?

He got a little lucky and the other jockeys gave the horse way too much rope, thinking that he would not like the ground and the travelling will affect him? I would love to have seen how that race would have panned out if ran again (I know, we could say that about a lot of races ) It is not like that race was completely full of no hopers . We knew that New Bay had issues and Fabre, in fairness warned people about him

But, then, to make those comments about Shin, one has to remember his performance in the Hong Kong Cup where he beat the likes of Free Eagle and a number of genuine multiple Group 1 winning Hong Kong hardy horses

In defence of Shin, the cameras were on him at Ascot. He was going mental in the saddling area, never mind the parade ring. He might not have wanted it that soft and the faces on the connections when interviewed before the race was a lot more than just being humble and being thankful that they are they . People had learned from France, he was not given any time in the lead, and he kinda did not like it up them. I doubt that was the real Shin that day.

Shame, because it takes some balls and money to bring a horse over, from Hong Kong, where they might not do well in Europe (many HK horses are ex European, look at Dan Excel, Military Attack and Designs on Rome, all raced in UK and Ireland) The expenses of keeping them in Europe, when they might be going into the HK season looking to win nice races that offer more prize money than a Group 1 in Europe. Another Hong Kong Group 1 sprinter/miler sadly died in France this season - Gold Fun, formerly of Ger Lyons

Lt Dan

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

Had a small bet on New Bay at 36 on bf after he won a gr.2 a few weeks ago I was still quite pleased with his run in the champion. He might not be good enough but you can easily see him coming in the first four or five. Still not on the Postponed band wagon. I'd be raging if he was good enough to win an Arc

It would be nice that a horse like Postponed lives up to his hype. I am not too convinced either but based on what he has done since July 2015, he absolutely deserves to win.

I have no qualms with Varian and Atzeni. However, because of the "military man" owner and his public humiliation of Luca Cumani, whose patience with the horse now has Varian enjoying the fruits, I would not want this horse to win. Petty , I know. http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/postponeds-owner-i-wont-take-excuses/2138987/latest/#newsArchiveTabs=last7DaysNews

Anyone have any views on the French Oaks-Guineas winner? Is she all that? 3 year old fillies have a super record in winning and placing. The trainer seems to be able to turn poo into gold this year. French Derby and Irish CS as well with the other horse. He also has that Frankel Group winning horse as well.

From O'Brien's yard, Minding would be asked a lot to run in this, would be unfair she had a long season, but she will hardly be asked to train on next year ? Head to the Breeders Cup instead? Found, would love to see her get a big one, I think most people would. If she got a close to perfect ride she is in with a shout. Highland Reel? He likes to run prominently so no, and it would be his 7th race of the season. Will Seventh Heaven will have to be given a proper shot if the ground is decent, surely she deserves a go on her own merits?

Dermot Weld's Harzand? Has not beaten the older horses yet, but only had one chance at a trip most people who like racing said, no chance. He is hardy considering he nearly missed Epsom. Heart says he will win, for the sake of Smullen, Weld , Sea The Stars and Irish Racing. Alas doubtful. Fascinating Rock? WOuld Weld run both? He might want to run him elsewhere like the British Champion Stakes at a distance Weld knows that he is good on?

Then there is Juddmonte horses. New Bay, worth a punt each way, I would be happy with his run at the IC . He was the best of the older male horses and had to give weight to the mighty Found, and the French Derby winner and Filly (and even, 3 year old) of the Year, Minding. He had a horrible start to the season through no fault of his own. I do not understand why Midterm would run especially when he definitely will not have a "regular" jockey in the likes of Moore, Smullen (regular Juddmonte jockey) or even Frankie on board? Give it to Ted Durcan? Stoute is legendary for getting horses to do the impossible eg Conduit, Harbinger and Workforce, but come on!!

tryfix

There are likely to be a few supplementary entries for the Arc and they could really shake up the betting.

On Postponed, he deserves a lot of respect for the simple fact that he can run to 124, which is likely higher than the rest of the field bar Almanzor? when his new rating comes out. That puts Postponed into the places in the Arc if he can match his normal level this year and there's every reason to believe that he will relish a battle which could result in him adding a few pounds to his previous best.

I wish Flintshire would turn up, drugs or no drugs he's been awesome this year and his previous form was very good in the Arc.

Lt Dan

tryfix wrote: »

There are likely to be a few supplementary entries for the Arc and they could really shake up the betting.

On Postponed, he deserves a lot of respect for the simple fact that he can run to 124, which is likely higher than the rest of the field bar Almanzor? when his new rating comes out. That puts Postponed into the places in the Arc if he can match his normal level this year and there's every reason to believe that he will relish a battle which could result in him adding a few pounds to his previous best.

I wish Flintshire would turn up, drugs or no drugs he's been awesome this year and his previous form was very good in the Arc.

Flintshire's times in the US have been excellent. But, taking take aside (can't really) who has he beaten in the three races he has had ?

Long way away, and while I have no doubting on Chad Brown, a legitimate top turf trainer, I would wait and see who from Europe turns up at the BC Turf race. I suspect his inability to finish off a race might come back to haunt him. Or, he could be the new Main Sequence

tryfix

Lt Dan wrote: »

Flintshire's times in the US have been excellent. But, taking take aside (can't really) who has he beaten in the three races he has had ?

Long way away, and while I have no doubting on Chad Brown, a legitimate top turf trainer, I would wait and see who from Europe turns up at the BC Turf race. I suspect his inability to finish off a race might come back to haunt him. Or, he could be the new Main Sequence

There's a gulf between what Main Sequence achieved ( OR 115 winner of the Lingfield Derby trial who had gone into a tailspin after the Derby ) in Europe before he left and the level of form reached by Flintshire ( OR 123 winner of Gp1s in all 3 seasons and 2nd in 2 Arcs ). If you want to compare Flintshire to any horse then Youmzain ( 2nd in 3 Arcs ) is the one most similar.

I take your point about what Flintshire has beaten. What has changed for the horse is that he's now showing a burst of speed that he didn't seem to have when he was racing in Europe where he seemed to be to one paced in his races. He looks transformed and since he was a serious animal before, who knows where he's at now?

Lt Dan

tryfix wrote: »

There's a gulf between what Main Sequence achieved ( OR 115 winner of the Lingfield Derby trial who had gone into a tailspin after the Derby ) in Europe before he left and the level of form reached by Flintshire ( OR 123 winner of Gp1s in all 3 seasons and 2nd in 2 Arcs ). If you want to compare Flintshire to any horse then Youmzain ( 2nd in 3 Arcs ) is the one most similar.

I take your point about what Flintshire has beaten. What has changed for the horse is that he's now showing a burst of speed that he didn't seem to have when he was racing in Europe where he seemed to be to one paced in his races. He looks transformed and since he was a serious animal before, who knows where he's at now?

Sorry when I referred to Main Sequence, I was referring to the consecutive group 1 wins.

Yes, poor example, shocking even, as Flintshire did very well in Europe wining one and placing in pretty much all the group 1s that in ran in (bar 1st Arc and poor ground in the Grand Prix St Cloud in 2014) , and then there is a win and place in Hong Kong and place in Dubai.

Good call sending him to Chad Brown rather than Bill Mott,. Brown is getting a lot of very good European horses like Sea Calasi who does not seem to mind good ground any more.

Despite my doubts as to whether he will win when the Euro's come (and that won't be Brown's fault) when I ask myself who from the Euro camp, that is likely to go to the Breeders Cup, I begin to struggle. Be shocked if Minding went for the Turf or even any race (but, they flogged Legatissimo) not sure about Seventh Heaven. As for the 3 year old colts? Meh, beat Aidan wished he had the Gurka. Deaville? Wings of Desire? Dar Mi So? (gosden's filly, not sure of her name) What will the French do? Wow , realising that the colts have been meh this year bar the older horses.

Love to see Flintshire try Japan Cup (might be tough as that is not long from Breeders) and /or return to Hong Kong (not sure there is any point there)

tryfix

EDIT: Got that very wrong..

Lt Dan

tryfix wrote: »

O'Brien is down to 3 potential runners in the Arc with just Order Of St George, Highland Reel and Sir Isaac Newton left in. Not exactly the strongest hand, with Highland Reels needing Good to Firm to give him any chance, Sir Isaac Newton is outclassed and OOSG has never even run in a 12f race in his life.

Just send Found and Highland Reel. Because OSG is lightly raced might as well give him a shot, whatever damage to be done on his stud reputation has been done already. Never harmed Yeats .

What is wrong with Found?

Actually, their Breeders Cup Team will hardly be that strong? Is Minding going over?

Wicklow Brave

tryfix wrote: »

O'Brien is down to 3 potential runners in the Arc with just Order Of St George, Highland Reel and Sir Isaac Newton left in. Not exactly the strongest hand, with Highland Reels needing Good to Firm to give him any chance, Sir Isaac Newton is outclassed and OOSG has never even run in a 12f race in his life.

I think you mean the Caulfield Cup?

tryfix

Wicklow Brave wrote: »

I think you mean the Caulfield Cup?

Oops, sorry about that, I just skimmed the article and made a fool of myself..

The shame of it..

BumperD

Interesting to see what runs for Weld. I guess we will know more tomorrow.

convert

So Dettori is now looking for a ride in the Arc after Weld has pulled Fascinating Rock from the race after poor work this morning:

Dettori's agent, Ray Cochrane:
"He gave him a spin and he felt it wasn't fit enough to go.

"Frankie is now looking for a ride in the Arc."

http://www.irishracing.com/news?headline=Fascinating-Rock-To-Miss-Arc&prid=178369&prt=L

tryfix

Down to 19 and the front ones in the betting look a little short in price in such a competitive race.


Paddy Power odds

Postponed 2/1
Makahiki 5/1
Found 13/2
Almanzor 3/1
Harzand 8/1
New Bay 10/1
Left Hand 16/1
OOSG 16/1
Highland Reel 16/1
Silverwave 20/1
Zarak 20/1
Savoir Vivre 40/1
Talismanic 40/1
Siljans Saga 40/1
One Foot In Heaven 40/1
The Grey Gatsby 50/1
Migwar 50/1
The Juliet Rose 50/1
Vedevani 100/1


Hard to make much sense of the race, there are too many question marks over most of the field.

Almanzor the best horse in the field but his trainer was aiming him at the English Champion Stakes and he does look a 10f horse but there's enough stamina in his DI of 1.67 to say he could stay 12f handily enough.

Postponed has done nothing wrong but 7/4 in places on him is a terrible price to be taking on him holding off the 3yo classic horses.

Found ... 2nd again?

Could fancy Highland Reel on the good ground and the track big time for a place at the decent price he is but his last run looked like that of a tired horse.

Makahiki is plenty short but that could be because he's ready to win here.

Harzand.... The right type of Derby winning class horse for 12f at Chantilly, but on the ground?

Thoughts?

Wicklow Brave

I was actually strongly considering backing Le Cressionairre before she was pulled. I've been thinking since I might just keep it simple and back Postponed but I'll probably stay loyal to Found after backing her at Epsom, Ascot and Leopardstown. I don't know enough about the Japanese yoke tbh, seems plenty short. I couldn't really be having Harzand. I'm tempted by New Bay and also have Highland Reel, OOSG, Zarak and Silverwave under consideration. Most likely I'll just back Found though lol. Surprised Coolmore aren't running Minding and Seventh Heaven, or even US Army Ranger and Idaho. The two fillies would most certainly have strong chances imo. Thought they would throw everything to try and get Postponed beat. Despite what connections are saying, also half expecting Almanzor to rock up in this with Le Cress out.

longshotvalue

Highland Reel is certainly the value here at 25/1 . On form over 1m4 on good ground he wont be too far behind Posponed. Easily the worst Arc in living memory. I wouldn't back yet though as im not sure he is running.

What would get interesting is the combined AOB Parimutuel bet on the day, which could be very good value with 3 decent darts all at a decent price, and a huge amount of luck involved here

Lt Dan

aidankkk wrote: »

Highland Reel is certainly the value here at 25/1 . On form over 1m4 on good ground he wont be too far behind Posponed. Easily the worst Arc in living memory. I wouldn't back yet though as im not sure he is running.

What would get interesting is the combined AOB Parimutuel bet on the day, which could be very good value with 3 decent darts all at a decent price, and a huge amount of luck involved here

Easily the worse? Bit harsh?

King George winner 2015 and 2016, French Derby 2015 and 2016, Irish and English Derby winner 2016, Proven Group 1 filly in Found (well BC Turf winner 2015) , a horse coming back into form in Silverwave who is also a Group 1 winna , Irish Champion Stakes winner of 2014 (possible, but meh all the same,did nothing at 12f) and 2016..............

Some of the same horses that ran in this years IC are going to run in the Arc.

Granted it does not look too excited with the removal of some of O'Brien's actual good 3 year old fillies (colts are just not that good this year) and the probably none appearance of the French Guineas/French Oaks winner

Peintre Celebre

I have to disagree Aidan no way is this the worst Arc. Almanzor or Harzand would both be above average Arc winners, even New Bay who was third last year to Golden Horn who was a well above average winner. Just because we may not know the extent of the Japanese's form he could prove well above average too.

I'd say this is better than Treve's second arc and definitely Solemia.

longshotvalue

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

I have to disagree Aidan no way is this the worst Arc. Almanzor or Harzand would both be above average Arc winners, even New Bay who was third last year to Golden Horn who was a well above average winner. Just because we may not know the extent of the Japanese's form he could prove well above average too.

I'd say this is better than Treve's second arc and definitely Solemia.

Yer probably right , i'm not at all convinced about any of them i suppose. Harzand i wouldn't rate at all. Almanzor maybe if he wins this will lok like a superstar.

Johner

aidankkk wrote: »

Yer probably right , i'm not at all convinced about any of them i suppose. Harzand i wouldn't rate at all. Almanzor maybe if he wins this will lok like a superstar.

I don't rate Harzand either, this years UK & Irish 3 year old's don't excite me at all.