Future of dairy farming poll

whelan2

Where do you see yourself if milk price continues as it is? This an anonymous poll

Grueller

Hopefully it won't stay as it is because every other type of farming is fooked and I would hate to see dairy go the same way.

pedigree 6

whelan2 wrote: »

Where do you see yourself if milk price continues as it is? This an anonymous poll

Is this as is for a year or a few years or forever.
Just to clarify it before I vote.

whelan2

pedigree 6 wrote: »

Is this as is for a year or a few years or forever.
Just to clarify it before I vote.

I suppose as it has been for the last year or so

pedigree 6

whelan2 wrote: »

I suppose as it has been for the last year or so

Yea but there might be different answers depending on how long in the future people think the current milk price will continue.
As is for the coming year.
As is for the next 5 years.
As is forever.

carrollsno1

I still want to lease a dairy farm and not to sound like a boll@x but it looks like its going to be no bother finding a farm to lease

Jaysus Christ

Surely the well established dairy men have huge nest eggs built up after 20 years of high prices.

Anyone who got into it recently on the back of the hype, gambled and will most likely lose. But I can't see why they're getting handouts.

pedigree 6

Where's Pontius Pilate when you need him?

Jaysus Christ

pedigree 6 wrote: »

Where's Pontius Pilate when you need him?

Probably milking cows.

pedigree 6

Jaysus Christ wrote: »

Probably milking cows.

If you see anyone coming towards you with 2 16ft lengths of 6×3 's.
RUN.

J.O. Farmer

pedigree 6 wrote: »

If you see anyone coming towards you with 2 16ft lengths of 6×3 's.
RUN.

Even worse if he has someone asking him to carry them up a big hill called cnoc cloigeann

Coolfresian

Definitely reduce numbers and go back to having more drystock. Having a shed full of cattle to sell is a big help along with the smaller milk cheque this year.

Miname

Coolfresian wrote: »

Definitely reduce numbers and go back to having more drystock. Having a shed full of cattle to sell is a big help along with the smaller milk cheque this year.

There's no money in it. You boys stick to milking and we'll keep loosing money.

mf240

pedigree 6 wrote: »

If you see anyone coming towards you with 2 16ft lengths of 6×3 's.
RUN.

Or a milk supply agreement ..

Coolfresian

Miname wrote: »

There's no money in it. You boys stick to milking and we'll keep loosing money.

Neither is going great atm, but with both u get enough to make it worthwhile especially when u have your own calves from the dairy side to finish

mf240

The big question is what do you do instead .

Beef is no better.

Tillage only suits some land .

Forestry is frowned upon.

best of a bad lot?

mahoney_j

Coolfresian wrote: »

Definitely reduce numbers and go back to having more drystock. Having a shed full of cattle to sell is a big help along with the smaller milk cheque this year.

Cattle and dry stock ain't fashionable with some ,cows cows cows and more cows .i agree tho ,have dry stock here and don't plan on changing .i won't be milking less cows tho another 10/15% expansion and that's it

Milked out

Getting bigger here anyway, have at least a half stone put on..

Timmaay

I've never hidden the fact that I won't be a full time dairy farmer all my life ha, I build the milking parlour on the bases that it would well pay back for itself after 10yrs (in reduced labour), I've never been happy to sit still at anything in life and defo have goals well outside farming stil to tick off the list ha. The single labour unit farm is fair too socially isolating for me also I'll admit. I'm aware that there are only 110acres here, yep good enough to make a living off now, but won't necessarily always be, so I'd happily consider a partnership moving forward, once it affords me more freedom from the farm here. I've casually mentioned this to one or two of the neighbours I get on well with, who would be quite fluid and open about the future also.

That's all largely outside of the current slump (however if the current slump remains it could well accelerate me wanting to change), looking at the current slump, I'm happy and prepared to cull and curb production in the short/medium term. It's actually a win win in terms of it helps keep cash flow good (cull sales), improves efficency (removes the lower preforming cows), and reduces the workload on me (winter accommodation stretched as is). But I'll be fully ready to ramp up and buy in next spring if opportunity arises and I can make some sort of profit on them extra animals.

alps

whelan2 wrote: »

Where do you see yourself if milk price continues as it is? This an anonymous poll

Great question Whelan. ...what would I like to do, and what will.the industry allow.me to.do...?

Without an output correction, we're going back to some form of quotas....

Short term play is probably add cows now....

This new quota may come in the guise of an environmental constraint....

Have the numbers greater than you would like to continue. ..

Dawggone

alps wrote: »

Great question Whelan. ...what would I like to do, and what will.the industry allow.me to.do...?

Without an output correction, we're going back to some form of quotas....

Short term play is probably add cows now....

This new quota may come in the guise of an environmental constraint....

Have the numbers greater than you would like to continue. ..

I think you may be correct about the new quotas....

whelan2

mf240 wrote: »

The big question is what do you do instead .

Beef is no better.

Tillage only suits some land .

Forestry is frowned upon.

best of a bad lot?

What about sheep?

Sam Kade

carrollsno1 wrote: »

I still want to lease a dairy farm and not to sound like a boll@x but it looks like its going to be no bother finding a farm to lease

Trying to pay for it coud be a different story.

Sam Kade

Jaysus Christ wrote: »

Surely the well established dairy men have huge nest eggs built up after 20 years of high prices.

Anyone who got into it recently on the back of the hype, gambled and will most likely lose. But I can't see why they're getting handouts.

What handouts?

Dawggone

Sam Kade wrote: »

What handouts?

Lol.
Skiing holidays are soon forgotten!

:)

mahoney_j

Dawggone wrote: »

Lol.
Skiing holidays are soon forgotten!

:)

Oh no there not!!!!

Jaysus Christ

Dairy Aid Payments. If I bought cattle in the mart and lost money on them in the factory, where's my You Bought Cattle To Dear And Got A Kick In The Hole In The Factory Payment.

Sam Kade

Jaysus Christ wrote: »

Dairy Aid Payments. If I bought cattle in the mart and lost money on them in the factory, where's my You Bought Cattle To Dear And Got A Kick In The Hole In The Factory Payment.

Didn't all dairy farmers get that, why are you singling out new entrants?

alps

Jaysus Christ wrote: »

Dairy Aid Payments. If I bought cattle in the mart and lost money on them in the factory, where's my You Bought Cattle To Dear And Got A Kick In The Hole In The Factory Payment.

You had 3 free choices. ...

Choice to buy
Choice of what type of cost/input system you ran
Choice of where and when you sold...

And your on a dairy thread moaning....

Buford T. Justice XIX

whelan2 wrote: »

What about sheep?

Labour, whelan, it's no fun lambing and calving at the same time. Plus there is a huge startoff cost in fencing for sheep.

yewtree

Buford T. Justice V wrote: »

Labour, whelan, it's no fun lambing and calving at the same time. Plus there is a huge startoff cost in fencing for sheep.

definitely agree on this had a average size sheep enterprise (100 ewes going back a few years ago). Spring was torture with calving/lambing going on at the same time. when i got out of the sheep the amount of free cash didn't decrease. I came to the conclusion that the cows were generating the farm profit and sheep sales were only covering their costs. In a mixed enterprise it can be hard to attribute costs to a specific enterprises, so on a dairy farm beef/sheep can help cash flow but in my experience are not that profitable.

Timmaay

mahoney_j wrote: »

Oh no there not!!!!

Any plans for next year ha? Thinking 3valleys here!

mahoney_j

Timmaay wrote: »

Any plans for next year ha? Thinking 3valleys here!

Love to try the Dolomites ,hard beat Austria though .lots of great places in France but just to Fookin expensive

welton john

what skiinng at 20c/l looks like ;-)
http://skicentre.ie/

MF290

Well I am still seriously considering going dairying in the next 5-10yrs depending what happens in the meantime of course, just wondering if skiing ability is mandatory for new entrants?

alps

MF290 wrote: »

Well I am still seriously considering going dairying in the next 5-10yrs depending what happens in the meantime of course, just wondering if skiing ability is mandatory for new entrants?

For certain.....a career of slippery slopes and the odd banana skin....Balance, poise and nimbleness required and a good ability as Dawg says to duck n dive...

Ski grants of course need to be used up in yhe year if receipt so as to ensure their continuance....

pedigree 6

MF290 wrote: »

Well I am still seriously considering going dairying in the next 5-10yrs depending what happens in the meantime of course, just wondering if skiing ability is mandatory for new entrants?

What's mandatory is you have to listen to everyone tell you how much money you're making while watching you're dairy neighbour a mile away being brought to court for non payment of feed and fert bills.

Then you have to read the journal about guys spending 300k euros on milking parlours and wonder how in the name of god is he going to get that back or where did he get it from.

It's the same as any farming except the expenses are higher and don't loose the head thinking just because i'm milking a cow i'm set for life. If you want job security get a civil servant job.

If you want to ski, pallet boards are free.

davidk1394

A partnership near us is gone bust already and only 4 months into a new year in terms of milking. Noticed the pinch on some farmers here asking me to go in and bale toppings after the cows. Raked 1 field for a fella last night got the rake covered in sh#te. Even the price is low there still making more money than any drystock farm

Waffletraktor

pedigree 6 wrote: »

What's mandatory is you have to listen to everyone tell you how much money you're making while watching you're dairy neighbour a mile away being brought to court for non payment of feed and fert bills.

Then you have to read the journal about guys spending 300k euros on milking parlours and wonder how in the name of god is he going to get that back or where did he get it from.

It's the same as any farming except the expenses are higher and don't loose the head thinking just because i'm milking a cow i'm set for life. If you want job security get a civil servant job.

If you want to ski, pallet boards are free.

I gather in the uk it's not the bank that calls in the receivers and forces closure of a farm, but the cake man who doesn't have the same ability to extend finance. Sad for a farm to get that stage but it doesn't sit well with me for someone to threaten someone else's business in the hope of a miracle turn around while lying to their face in the meantime.

MF290

pedigree 6 wrote: »

What's mandatory is you have to listen to everyone tell you how much money you're making while watching you're dairy neighbour a mile away being brought to court for non payment of feed and fert bills.

Then you have to read the journal about guys spending 300k euros on milking parlours and wonder how in the name of god is he going to get that back or where did he get it from.

It's the same as any farming except the expenses are higher and don't loose the head thinking just because i'm milking a cow i'm set for life. If you want job security get a civil servant job.

If you want to ski, pallet boards are free.

I suppose I'm lucky in the sense that I've grown up during both the economic crash and now the agri crash that's happening. Both have left me wary of borrowing, I'd sooner save than work off borrowings. The father happened to ask someone in the bank whether or not they're still lending and was told that if you've a decent degree and the relevant experience working on a dairy farm you'll get finance handy enough, I'd still be wary signing the place over on the dotted line though.
I don't know your neighbour but there are always a few in every parish who would be going to court over bills even if they won the lotto in the morning.
I've seen businesses who continue to expand when all others in the business are struggling by pacing themselves and reusing the rusty nails.

Edit: going down a snowy hill on a car bonnet is about as close to skiing as I'll probably get!

pedigree 6

MF290 wrote: »

I suppose I'm lucky in the sense that I've grown up during both the economic crash and now the agri crash that's happening. Both have left me wary of borrowing, I'd sooner save than work off borrowings. The father happened to ask someone in the bank whether or not they're still lending and was told that if you've a decent degree and the relevant experience working on a dairy farm you'll get finance handy enough, I'd still be wary signing the place over on the dotted line though.
I don't know your neighbour but there are always a few in every parish who would be going to court over bills even if they won the lotto in the morning.
I've seen businesses who continue to expand when all others in the business are struggling by pacing themselves and reusing the rusty nails.

Edit: going down a snowy hill on a car bonnet is about as close to skiing as I'll probably get!

Lol ah you'll be skiing yet.
Just be careful and I mean it to anyone.
There's another farm I know with a new parlour built even the company showed it off at an open day. That the farmer himself owes the whole country money and the guys who put the parlour in are still waiting 18 months on and every auctioneer knows not to sell any stock to him. Never judge a book by it's cover and all that glitters is not gold.

Timmaay

davidk1394 wrote: »

A partnership near us is gone bust already and only 4 months into a new year in terms of milking. Noticed the pinch on some farmers here asking me to go in and bale toppings after the cows. Raked 1 field for a fella last night got the rake covered in sh#te. Even the price is low there still making more money than any drystock farm

If its gone after 4months it obviously was very poorly thought out in the 1st place, it doesn't matter if the price of milk is 50c/l a partnership of the wrong people will not work simple as is.

Topped 6paddocks here after the cows so far myself, the cows took 5days to get through their current paddock, by which time the top 1/2 has hit about 2500. Topping/premowing of some sort is a necessary evil for almost every farmer who is serious about grassland management.

davidk1394

Timmaay wrote: »

If its gone after 4months it obviously was very poorly thought out in the 1st place, it doesn't matter if the price of milk is 50c/l a partnership of the wrong people will not work simple as is.

Topped 6paddocks here after the cows so far myself, the cows took 5days to get through their current paddock, by which time the top 1/2 has hit about 2500. Topping/premowing of some sort is a necessary evil for almost every farmer who is serious about grassland management.

Sorry I meant too add it was set up in 2014 but there was no contract drawn up. 1 lad left with 90 cows and no parlour to milk them in. He leased out the cows to different farmers for 5 years and at the end gets a replacement heifer

carrollsno1

alps wrote: »

You had 3 free choices. ...

Choice to buy
Choice of what type of cost/input system you ran
Choice of where and when you sold...

And your on a dairy thread moaning....

Nobodys forcing you to supply milk though

carrollsno1

Sam Kade wrote: »

Trying to pay for it coud be a different story.

Might not be could be farmers who would rather lease the farm just to be able to service there debts than to be remembered as the one who let the family farm go

Buford T. Justice XIX

carrollsno1 wrote: »

Nobodys forcing you to supply milk though

No, but it's not like you can wake up one morning and start milking cows. It takes 3 years to get from insemination of a cow to a cow calving down, all things going well. The buildings and associated structures have to be there from the beginning also.

It's probably the most capital-sucking enterprise on a farm and if you get to a stage where the capital is, for the most part, already spent, it's relatively easy to hunker down and belt tighten.

The biggest problem with a large loss of dairy farmers is the resultant loss of employment in support services outside the farm gate. Because, lets face it, nobody gives a fcuk if farmers and their farms are dropping like flies. It will only register as a problem when hundreds have to be laid off because there isn't the work there for them.

And at that stage it will be too late.

jaymla627

Buford T. Justice V wrote: »

No, but it's not like you can wake up one morning and start milking cows. It takes 3 years to get from insemination of a cow to a cow calving down, all things going well. The buildings and associated structures have to be there from the beginning also.

It's probably the most capital-sucking enterprise on a farm and if you get to a stage where the capital is, for the most part, already spent, it's relatively easy to hunker down and belt tighten.

The biggest problem with a large loss of dairy farmers is the resultant loss of employment in support services outside the farm gate. Because, lets face it, nobody gives a fcuk if farmers and their farms are dropping like flies. It will only register as a problem when hundreds have to be laid off because there isn't the work there for them.

And at that stage it will be too late.

Good article done on pennsilyvina dairying in America that worked out for every dollar a dairy farmer spent it was worth roughly 2.50 in wages and related business transactions in local econmy it's called the multiplyer effect...
Even more intresting fact was that 9 cows equaled the creation of one job in the state, the government have done very well of dairying the past few years when you add up the huge tax takes they have taken in through dairy related business and of course all the investment that occurred on farm and was spent by co-ops on plant

alps

carrollsno1 wrote: »

Nobodys forcing you to supply milk though

Correct....and that's the beauty of the correction in supply if farmers would do it...

To mention reducing supply, you would automatically think of reducing cow numbers etc. It would be a long winded affair. But the short sharp shock...milk in the slurry tank for a week...

As you said ...nobody is forcing us to supply...

Jaysus Christ

Sam Kade wrote: »

Didn't all dairy farmers get that, why are you singling out new entrants?

Because the new entrants around here are failed tillage and suckler farmers. Some were also failed dairy farmers before becoming failed tillage farmers.
And if they saw a lad down the road making a few euros out of growing cabbage they'd try that, and fail.

Water John

Pedigree, that fellow with the shiny new 20 unit parlour for 120 cows is one of 'the twelve apostles' a renowned dairy discussion group.
One Of IFJ's regular sources of copy.

pedigree 6

Water John wrote: »

Pedigree, that fellow with the shiny new 20 unit parlour for 120 cows is one of 'the twelve apostles' a renowned dairy discussion group.
One Of IFJ's regular sources of copy.

Ah look here. I'm not having a go.
Probably a good businessman and knows what he's doing.
But just the money being charged/made by people putting up units is astronomical.