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Buy now or wait for sanity to return to the market?

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245

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    #32
    Irish_rat
    Registered Users Posts: 2,554 ✭✭✭Irish_rat


    The problem is mainly in Dublin. Outside that general area house prices are relatively affordable.

    Galway, Cork and Limerick you can probably get a good 3bed semi detached just over 200k. But prices should be capped on new builds, I see they are increasing them where I am on new phases.


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    #33
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Irish_rat wrote: »
    prices should be capped on new builds, I see they are increasing them where I am on new phases.

    That sounds like a recipe to reduce the supply of new builds, the exact opposite of what the market needs.


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    #34
    carfax
    Registered Users Posts: 3,771 ✭✭✭carfax


    Sadie High Stud wrote: »
    Hoping to buy as soon as possible before prices get crazy altogether.

    That said people talk about sanity, realistically prices were unrealistically low over the last few years and anyone lucky enough to have the funds to buy then are laughing. It's very hard to see prices drop to those levels again as even though people are trying to claim things are like before and people are buying like in the Celtic tiger it's very different now.

    Banks are not lending very easily, people have bigger deposits (or at least have a deposit unlike with 100% mortgages), prices are still well below the height of the boom but are climbing and one of the biggest differences of all is there is no supply.

    Pretty much word for word what my input would have been.


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    #35
    KomradeBishop
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,981 ✭✭✭KomradeBishop


    Graham wrote: »
    That sounds like a recipe to reduce the supply of new builds, the exact opposite of what the market needs.
    No, that's a measure to put a cap on the price of new builds...

    'Supply and Demand' analysis of the property market, and property prices, is extremely simplistic - the sheer number of distortions affecting the property and rental market now, from high private debt, low social housing building, restricted availability of credit, even stuff like AirBnB - the state of the property market, can not be reduced to simple 'supply and demand' statements of how things 'should' be done.


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    #36
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    KomradeBishop wrote: »
    No, that's a measure to put a cap on the price of new builds...

    I'm keen to understand how that's gong to reduce the costs of labour and materials for example or how it's going to encourage developers not to hoard land...


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    #37
    Barely Hedged
    Closed Accounts Posts: 992 ✭✭✭Barely Hedged


    Villa05 wrote: »
    BH I belive you are intelligent enough to understand that price bubbles are not only created by bad lending practices, they can also be created by restricting supply which is currently happening

    And what about when supply is increased gradually alongside wage increases?

    My main point was that It's foolish to think that the only time to buy is in a downturn .There's plenty of good opportunities to buy in a rising market. Rising prices are not insane, as the OP would like to believe and are natural, even though supply is tight


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    #38
    KomradeBishop
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,981 ✭✭✭KomradeBishop


    Graham wrote: »
    I'm keen to understand how that's gong to reduce the costs of labour and materials for example or how it's going to encourage developers not to hoard land...
    I'm keen for you to show me anywhere the person you replied to, claimed it would do such things...


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    #39
    Barely Hedged
    Closed Accounts Posts: 992 ✭✭✭Barely Hedged


    Walter H Price wrote: »
    but there's zero value in Dublin like a be struggling to get a 3 bed in a decent suburb for under 300k.

    I love these statements about the property market. I can't get a house in a 'decent' suburb. The level of self denial is astronomical


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    #40
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    KomradeBishop wrote: »
    I'm keen for you to show me anywhere the person you replied to, claimed it would do such things...

    Which bring us full circle to my initial point. Capping prices is going to do nothing to increase supply, quite the opposite.


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    #41
    El_Dangeroso
    Users Awaiting Email Confirmation Posts: 5,620 ✭✭✭El_Dangeroso


    Irish_rat wrote: »
    Galway, Cork and Limerick you can probably get a good 3bed semi detached just over 200k.

    Ehhh, No, you're clearly not bidding in these markets if you think that's the case.


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    #42
    Walter H Price
    Registered Users Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭Walter H Price


    Barely Hedged wrote: »
    I love these statements about the property market. I can't get a house in a 'decent' suburb. The level of self denial is astronomical

    Not sure how thats self denial , we could easily afford a house in somewhere like Finglas , Clondalkin , Ballymun , Darndale , Coolock , Tallaght etc... now but we've absolutely no interest in living somewhere like that, neither of us are working class , were both professionals and are currently earning two decent salary's.

    Similarly were not looking for a 3 bed in D4 , Malahide , Portmarnock or Howth and complaining about prices.

    We've been looking in areas like Swords , Castleknock ,Santry , The Navan Road , Aishington , Ashtown etc... and there's no doubt the houses in theses areas and others are overvalued now again and as soon as new building starts up prices will fall , that's why were waiting.


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    #43
    KomradeBishop
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,981 ✭✭✭KomradeBishop


    Graham wrote: »
    Which bring us full circle to my initial point. Capping prices is going to do nothing to increase supply, quite the opposite.
    You claimed it would reduce supply, not merely 'do nothing to increase' supply (i.e. have a neutral effect) - which is simplistic/unbacked. Aain, what the poster put forward, had nothing to do with trying to rectify the supply.


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    #44
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    KomradeBishop wrote: »
    You claimed it would reduce supply, not merely 'do nothing to increase' supply (i.e. have a neutral effect) - which is simplistic/unbacked. Aain, what the poster put forward, had nothing to do with trying to rectify the supply.

    Now I think about it, capping prices on new builds as suggested isn't likely to reduce supply. It's going to stop it.


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    #45
    1st dalkey dalkey
    Registered Users Posts: 241 ✭✭1st dalkey dalkey


    Dont know if you saw Fr. Peter McVerry on RTE last night. He pointed out that with prices and bank rules combined, only those on 70K or more can look at buying in Dublin. That, he pointed out, is just 20% of the population. What of the other 80%?
    There is only one solution and that is a return to councils building their own housing and renting it locally.
    We need approx 25k housing units every year. The local authorities should build at least 10% of that amount in a properly functioning market and be capable of increasing that output to 50% in a poorly functioning market, as we have now.
    It will be expensive, but so is rent allowance and hotel rooms, social and health problems arising from this crisis.
    In the 40's, 50's and 60's, when we were truly broke, we managed to build thousands of council houses. But back then we had politicians who cared about the people. I saw all the current crowd visiting Kilmainham for the commemoration. What a shower of hypocrites.


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    #46
    KomradeBishop
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,981 ✭✭✭KomradeBishop


    Graham wrote: »
    Now I think about it, capping prices on new builds as suggested isn't likely to reduce supply. It's going to stop it.
    That's a simplistic, unbacked claim. There's nothing to suggest, that house prices need to be sky-high, for supply to increase. Indeed, it's been shown earlier, that there is a massive massive falloff in the supply of social housing for starters - one among a very wide range of factors, having a negative effect on the housing market.

    These issues are far more complicated, than simplistic recitations of supply-and-demand based thinking.


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    #47
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    1st dalkey dalkey wrote: »
    There is only one solution and that is a return to councils building their own housing and renting it locally.

    It's one solution, it's not the only solution and it wouldn't help those who are just outside qualifying for social housing.


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    #48
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    KomradeBishop wrote: »
    That's a simplistic, unbacked claim.

    To a simplistic unbacked proposal.


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    #49
    KomradeBishop
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,981 ✭✭✭KomradeBishop


    Graham wrote: »
    To a simplistic unbacked proposal.
    I don't defend the original proposal, but that doesn't justify making unbacked claims about it.


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    #50
    cnocbui
    Registered Users Posts: 19,746 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Graham wrote: »
    It is not a 'sense of scarcity' there is genuine scarcity in the current market. As a nation we are not building enough houses to meet demand, as has been the case for the last few years. For as long as this continues, prices will continue to rise all be it at a rate tempered by the availability of, and access to finance.

    Anyone else not living in Dublin notice how Dublin 'is' Ireland to most people?

    The 'Nation' has plenty of houses, they just aren't in Dublin. Prices outside Dublin are arguably too low.

    Ireland, like many countries, has a 'capitalisation' problem. Policies to encourage decentralization might be in order.


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    #51
    sKeith
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,404 ✭✭✭✭sKeith


    1800+ properties just in Dublin for under 300k [according to myhome.ie]


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    #52
    1st dalkey dalkey
    Registered Users Posts: 241 ✭✭1st dalkey dalkey


    The decentralisation card has already been played with uneven results, to say the least.
    There are some nice and affordable houses in the state. But if you work in Dublin a nice affordable house in Wexford or Leitrim is not a solution.
    So, no, Dublin is not Ireland, but neither are Wexford or Leitrim.


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    #53
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    KomradeBishop wrote: »
    I don't defend the original proposal, but that doesn't justify making unbacked claims about it.

    Its been well publicised that many developers are refusing to build at the moment as they don't see it being worth their while so capping prices of new houses will have an effect.

    Obviously prices rising is not what people want either but strong incentives for builders and developers such as tax rebates etc would be a better option than talk of capping prices as this would enable them to be more profitable at a lower selling price.

    Developers also need better access to credit, a building development takes a long time from initial land purchase to all units occupied and stricter lending is making it impossible for developments to be financed. Its unrealistic to expect builder/developers to fund large portions of this from their own pockets with no money coming in.


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    #54
    Barely Hedged
    Closed Accounts Posts: 992 ✭✭✭Barely Hedged


    Walter H Price wrote: »
    Not sure how thats self denial , we could easily afford a house in somewhere like Finglas , Clondalkin , Ballymun , Darndale , Coolock , Tallaght etc... now but we've absolutely no interest in living somewhere like that, neither of us are working class , were both professionals and are currently earning two decent salary's.

    Similarly were not looking for a 3 bed in D4 , Malahide , Portmarnock or Howth and complaining about prices.

    We've been looking in areas like Swords , Castleknock ,Santry , The Navan Road , Aishington , Ashtown etc... and there's no doubt the houses in theses areas and others are overvalued now again and as soon as new building starts up prices will fall , that's why were waiting.

    Or maybe you're not 'professional' enough.

    Ask yourself when are they going to be building anymore houses below 300k in these areas and that will give you your answer as to when you can afford to live in your chosen locations


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    #55
    Irish_rat
    Registered Users Posts: 2,554 ✭✭✭Irish_rat


    El_Dangeroso wrote: »
    Ehhh, No, you're clearly not bidding in these markets if you think that's the case.

    If you're trying the buy in really expensive suburbs like Douglas, Salthill and Annacotty then expect a lot more near 300k.

    But I didn't say the very best semi d's in the best locations.


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    #56
    El_Dangeroso
    Users Awaiting Email Confirmation Posts: 5,620 ✭✭✭El_Dangeroso


    Irish_rat wrote: »
    If you're trying the buy in really expensive suburbs like Douglas, Salthill and Annacotty then expect a lot more near 300k.

    Closer to 400K for Saltihill, AND it will be a crap BER and need about 40K of work to bring it up to date.


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    #57
    psheaser
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 41 ✭psheaser


    Franklythefish a quick search into myhome.ie price change section shows that asking prices have been dropping consistently all year in all areas of Dublin besides SCD.

    Media have vested interest in the property market so I would not quote any of them as viable research.


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    #58
    Eric Cartman
    Registered Users Posts: 26,283 ✭✭✭✭Eric Cartman


    due to planning laws, lack of space and repositions being slow, if your looking for a house in Dublin 2, 4, 6, 6w, 14 or 18 or the more affluent areas of south county dublin - you may aswell buy now, those houses aren't devaluing significantly for decades.

    However if your looking at places like swords, ashbourne, tallaght, and other new build locations then only time will tell, may be worth a punt, could save yourself 50k by holding off a few years, but by the time this happens interest rates will be climbing again, so on balance you may lose.


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    #59
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    psheaser wrote: »
    Franklythefish a quick search into myhome.ie price change section shows that asking prices have been dropping consistently all year in all areas of Dublin besides SCD.

    Myhome.ie Q1 2016 Property Report
    Dublin
    Stock +5.35%
    New Instructions +1.5%


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    #60
    highly1111
    Registered Users Posts: 967 ✭✭✭highly1111


    Korbin Flaky Okra wrote: »
    Couldn't agree more with you. Well done and every best wish in your new home. Good to hear a positive story from someone who struggled through the recession and endured the tumultuous rental market. It doesn't matter if your forever home fluctuates in value..it's irrelevant as you are buying it to live in longterm. The best of luck.

    Thanks! Can't wait....just need to pack now!! ðŸ˜


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    #61
    ongarite
    Registered Users Posts: 8,204 ✭✭✭ongarite


    1st dalkey dalkey wrote: »
    Dont know if you saw Fr. Peter McVerry on RTE last night. He pointed out that with prices and bank rules combined, only those on 70K or more can look at buying in Dublin. That, he pointed out, is just 20% of the population. What of the other 80%?
    There is only one solution and that is a return to councils building their own housing and renting it locally.
    We need approx 25k housing units every year. The local authorities should build at least 10% of that amount in a properly functioning market and be capable of increasing that output to 50% in a poorly functioning market, as we have now.
    It will be expensive, but so is rent allowance and hotel rooms, social and health problems arising from this crisis.
    In the 40's, 50's and 60's, when we were truly broke, we managed to build thousands of council houses. But back then we had politicians who cared about the people. I saw all the current crowd visiting Kilmainham for the commemoration. What a shower of hypocrites.

    Councils are never going to build the homes in the volumes required and it exactly what they shouldnt do. The perception of council built estates is very poor in Ireland.
    What the councils are doing now, buying sections of privately developed estates is the way forward.
    Its a win-win for the councils, low cost relatively to developing site from scratch and it leaves maintenance to the management agents of the private estates..

    The stats that they only built 75 units last year is skewed by the above.


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