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The Derby

  • 03-05-2016 2:23pm
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,744 ✭✭✭


    I have invested €20, equally divided between Sky Kingdom (160/1) and Abdon (162/1).
    Has anyone any better suggestions?


«134

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24 SlipTheField


    Midterm is going to win the Derby


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,744 ✭✭✭diomed


    Midterm is going to win the Derby
    Yes, the favourite is often a solid pick.
    Favourites or joint favourites have won 86 times from 251 or 34%.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24 SlipTheField


    Midterm isnt the favourite though, is only 3rd fav.

    Minding (with a run) is fav.
    US army ranger is next in the betting with Midterm 3rd in betting.

    5/1 to me is an ew way bet to nothing, struggling to see 3 to finish infront of it.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,744 ✭✭✭diomed


    I use Betfair
    Midterm 5.7; US Army Ranger 5.8; Galileo Gold 10.5; Minding 13.0

    484 horses still entered in the Derby.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,955 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    I like the Aga Khan's major contender Harzand, have nibbled at it on the exchanges at 40 and 42 for small money. Has the breeding, should stay the trip and has form as good as anything. My only worry was Smullen seemed to write off the chances of this one already.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,351 ✭✭✭✭Harry Angstrom


    Might be worth taking the 5/1 Midterm before the Chester Vase. If US Army Ranger wins today, it's unlikely that Midterm's odds will lengthen, and if the Ballydoyle horse gets beat, Midterm's price will shorten.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,955 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    I wonder does that open the Derby up? An average enough Port Douglas clearly being ridden as a pacemaker nearly caught US Army Ranger on the line. If the horse had maybe been held up a little, it would have won.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,955 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    Out to 6's on Paddypower.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 492 ✭✭Wicklow Brave


    Tirmizi who runs in the Derrinstown is Weld's Derby horse. He'd my Derby fancy at 25s.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    Out to 6's on Paddypower.

    He's far better value now than he was an hour ago. I'd forgive him today's performance and I was quite taken by how comfortable the horse was after the race. He'll definitely stay the trip and he's got an evil eye about him that makes me think he won't throw in the towel in a battle.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,162 ✭✭✭Backstreet Moyes


    I wonder does that open the Derby up? An average enough Port Douglas clearly being ridden as a pacemaker nearly caught US Army Ranger on the line. If the horse had maybe been held up a little, it would have won.

    Pourt Douglas is a group 2 winner and both him and US Army Ranger finished 19 lengths clear of High Grounds.

    Midterm beat High Grounds by 9 lengths.

    Us Army Ranger will come on a lot for that today.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,205 ✭✭✭Gringo180


    Nuts102 wrote: »
    Pourt Douglas is a group 2 winner and both him and US Army Ranger finished 19 lengths clear of High Grounds.

    Midterm beat High Grounds by 9 lengths.

    Us Army Ranger will come on a lot for that today.

    Hopefully they dont win it after todays carry on, although I do think his horse Idaho is a lively outsider for the Derby.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,955 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    Galileo Gold out of the Derby - http://www.racingpost.com/news/live.sd?event_id=16594824&category=0

    Really think this could be a year to get a high priced winner.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,772 ✭✭✭byronbay2


    Galileo Gold out of the Derby - http://www.racingpost.com/news/live.sd?event_id=16594824&category=0

    Really think this could be a year to get a high priced winner.

    Ouch for anyone who follows Pricewise. He gave GG as his Derby ante-post tip a few days ago!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,351 ✭✭✭✭Harry Angstrom


    byronbay2 wrote: »
    Ouch for anyone who follows Pricewise. He gave GG as his Derby ante-post tip a few days ago!

    Could never have seen a son of Paco Boy staying the Derby trip. Surprised that Tom Segal put him up in the first place.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 407 ✭✭razorhead


    The Gurkha @ 16's might be worth a punt


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,047 ✭✭✭Itziger


    byronbay2 wrote: »
    Ouch for anyone who follows Pricewise. He gave GG as his Derby ante-post tip a few days ago!

    Could never have seen a son of Paco Boy staying the Derby trip. Surprised that Tom Segal put him up in the first place.
    That and the powerful short neck on him.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,955 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    Galileo Gold out of the Derby - http://www.racingpost.com/news/live.sd?event_id=16594824&category=0

    Really think this could be a year to get a high priced winner.
    Now back in, maybe.

    filth.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32 Deiseland


    Deauville wins the Derby was told back it before this weekend


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,744 ✭✭✭diomed


    Deauville is running in the Dante on Thursday.
    "Back it for the Derby before Thursday" would make more sense.


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,295 ✭✭✭Lt Dan


    Personally love to Stoute get it, and another jockey riding Midterm while Ryan Moore wishes he didn't sign that contract . (:-B Obviously would prefer Moore to be riding Midterm

    Anyone think Bould Bolger's Godolpin horse who won the Leoppy Derby trial and has a pretty good form on good ground,has a chance, if sent to the Derby?

    Speaking of Godolpin, as usual they recently bought someone else's horse , Home of The Brave -shame ,I liked the previous owner's snazy colours


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 282 ✭✭uxiant


    Lt Dan wrote: »
    Personally love to Stoute get it, and another jockey riding Midterm while Ryan Moore wishes he didn't sign that contract . (:-B Obviously would prefer Moore to be riding Midterm

    Anyone think Bould Bolger's Godolpin horse who won the Leoppy Derby trial and has a pretty good form on good ground,has a chance, if sent to the Derby?

    Speaking of Godolpin, as usual they recently bought someone else's horse , Home of The Brave -shame ,I liked the previous owner's snazy colours

    I think he got the run of the race a bit at Leopardstown. Least exposed but Idaho and Shogun were too far back. We know what Shogun's sister did in the Oaks last year when upped to a mile and a half.

    No standout contender for the Derby so far. Port Douglas might just do nothing at home as he was a big priced winner of a Group 2 and maybe is better than we all thought. Don't think US Army Ranger was that bad at Chester but is just a short priced on what he's done on the track. We'll see what Midterm does today.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,955 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    What now? :pac:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,625 ✭✭✭✭Johner


    I'm going to back US Army Ranger at 5's now.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 492 ✭✭Wicklow Brave


    Race is wide open now. If I had to have a bet right now it would be Port Douglas at 20s.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 492 ✭✭Wicklow Brave


    Race is wide open now. If I had to have a bet right now it would be Port Douglas at 20s.

    Gonna stay loyal with Deauville aswell actually. Deauville and Port Douglas my two darts at the Derby I'd say.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,941 ✭✭✭krustydoyle


    Just listened to Hugo Palmer on racing uk and he doesn't know what to do.. Says he'll listen to the horse and decide then..


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,484 ✭✭✭Peintre Celebre


    I think Idaho was the most promising horse I saw in the trials


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    The Trials aren't over yet. There's the French 2000 at the weekend and the Irish 2000 the following weekend.

    The Dante confirmed the strength of last year's Racing Post Trophy form and there's much to ponder yet about the Derby. Remember that Port Douglas finished ahead of Deauville in that race and so did Johannes Vermeer and Marcel.

    Deauville is far from a certain Derby stayer in my book, the same applies to Idaho and Bolger's horse has a perfect pedigree for the Derby.

    The Dante winner is most promising and the most likely winner ( good price still ) but there's a quirk in that brilliant family and it's in the back of my mind that his full brother Eagle Top wasn't the most reliable of horses and flattered to deceive.

    There's another few twists to be had yet in the Derby field. Stoute's Workforce ran poorly in the Dante before destroying the field in the Derby so Midterm could yet reenter calculations. Gosden is bullish enough about Linguistic who's a mile behind on form but a solid stayer from a stable with the best of form for the race.

    Have to think about the likes of Massaat. He hits the Dosage Index marker for a Derby winner and has top class form but there's an awful lot of speed on the dam's side.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 492 ✭✭Wicklow Brave


    The Racing Post was run on softish ground, I wouldn't read the form too literally. I think Deauville showed plenty improvement from 2 to 3 and the Dante was his first run of the season. I think he looks made for the Derby. Most of that applies to Port Douglas aswell. Should US Army Ranger be so much shorter than PD? Wings of Desire that much shorter than Deauville? WoD had already two runs this season so had a race fitness edge over Deauville.

    Idaho and Shogun both shaped like they wanted much further in the Derrinstown and I think they'd be well down the pecking order of O'Brien's Derby horses. Moonlight Magic would have wanted to be beating them a bit more convincingly.

    Agree with you on Massaat.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    The Racing Post was run on softish ground, I wouldn't read the form too literally. I think Deauville showed plenty improvement from 2 to 3 and the Dante was his first run of the season. I think he looks made for the Derby. Most of that applies to Port Douglas aswell. Should US Army Ranger be so much shorter than PD? Wings of Desire that much shorter than Deauville? WoD had already two runs this season so had a race fitness edge over Deauville.

    Idaho and Shogun both shaped like they wanted much further in the Derrinstown and I think they'd be well down the pecking order of O'Brien's Derby horses. Moonlight Magic would have wanted to be beating them a bit more convincingly.

    Agree with you on Massaat.

    I'm no fan of Soft Ground form, it causes strange results such as letting the likes of Noble Mission and Fascinating Rock turn the tables on better animals.


    Deauville has already turned the tables on Foundation so he's probably improved from 2-3 and maybe for better ground. He had a dream run in the Dante compared to Foundation's rough passage in that race so he hasn't necessarily improved all that much.

    My suspicions about Deauville's stamina are based on both his borderline Dosage Index 1.29 ( for a Galileo ) and on his full brother's form. I had high hopes for The Corsican last year but he didn't live up to them and his best form has been at 10f and that's as a mature older horse where they tend to get 12f better in the top grade than they would in the Derby as 3yos. Those kind of borderline Galileo colts tend to stay 12f but not well enough to win the very best races. Deauville's Dante conqueror Wings Of Desire DI 0.73 has far more stamina in his pedigree than Deauville has so the extra 2 furlongs at Epsom should see Wings Of Desire stretch his superiority over Deauville.

    Idaho DI 1.20 is a very similar horse to Deauville with a borderline Epsom pedigree ( for a Galileo ). He's a full brother to Highland Reel who'd had much more racing and better form at the same stage of his career and who was no match for Jack Hobbs in the Irish Derby. It took Highland Reel time to get competitive in proper Gp 1 12f company.

    Shogun could be well suited to 12f although he shouldn't be on Dosage Index 1.75. His full sister Qualify won the Oaks in a freak result and I find Fillies can be a bit odd as regards staying ability compared to their pedigrees, it's significant that there's stamina on the dam side of the pedigree. Shogun has been knocking about in top Gp 1 races as a 2yo with top class collateral form so it's just about possible he could win. O'Brien was supposedly talking him up before the Derrinstown.

    It'll be interesting to see what Moore rides in the Derby. With all the crabbing about US Army Ranger DI 0.79 in the Chester Vase it was fairly pathetic to see the media playing up the inexperience of Wings Of Desire 3rd time out while they slated US Army Ranger's 2nd run without making any allowance for his greenness.

    I reckon Moore will be on US Army Ranger if he runs.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,295 ✭✭✭Lt Dan


    Anyone think that Stoute should give a real consideration to the horse Across The Stars and supplement him. I know his owners are not happy with the result at Lingfield. Frankly, De Soussa was diabolical. I loathe to slate a jockey, but Across The Stars was driven into a cul de sac got stuck and that lead to being unbalanced (which is not helpful for Epsom as Lingfield is possibly the closest resemblance) But he finished well and definitely would have reached at least 2nd.

    Based on how wide opened the race is, and that the owners of this horse is bit of a money man, what would £75,000 be to him to supplement?


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,295 ✭✭✭Lt Dan


    tryfix wrote: »
    The Trials aren't over yet. There's the French 2000 at the weekend and the Irish 2000 the following weekend.

    The Dante confirmed the strength of last year's Racing Post Trophy form and there's much to ponder yet about the Derby. Remember that Port Douglas finished ahead of Deauville in that race and so did Johannes Vermeer and Marcel.

    Deauville is far from a certain Derby stayer in my book, the same applies to Idaho and Bolger's horse has a perfect pedigree for the Derby.

    The Dante winner is most promising and the most likely winner ( good price still ) but there's a quirk in that brilliant family and it's in the back of my mind that his full brother Eagle Top wasn't the most reliable of horses and flattered to deceive.

    There's another few twists to be had yet in the Derby field. Stoute's Workforce ran poorly in the Dante before destroying the field in the Derby so Midterm could yet reenter calculations. Gosden is bullish enough about Linguistic who's a mile behind on form but a solid stayer from a stable with the best of form for the race.

    Have to think about the likes of Massaat. He hits the Dosage Index marker for a Derby winner and has top class form but there's an awful lot of speed on the dam's side.

    Workforce was still placed in the Dante, 2nd. Like him, it was Cape Blanco's first group grace and first race of the 3 year old season. Moreover, while he flopped in the French Derby, Cape made up in the Irish Derby and Irish Champion Stakes. Midterm did not put in a mature performance.

    Watch the video of his Sandown run,Mid Term's action in the first part of the race looked weird like he was already at full pace, he looked uncomfortable (alas only his second race) Can Smullen (who I rate and has proven himself on the big day) take any criticism for how Midterm was ridden? I am not too sure, want to watch it again.

    I hope I am wrong, but I sense that Juddmonte will send him to Ascot , maybe the King Edward. They are not the types that throw a horse into a big race like that for the hell of it. Twice Over flopped badly at the Dante, and he turned out all right. They might look at the bigger picture.

    Stoute should have a look at Across The Stars, and draw a line in the sand over his Lingfield ride.

    If I was Fabre and Bolger I would be really thinking about Epsom with their horses. I would suggest Hanzand and Weld, but knowing Weld he always wants soft and probably wants him for Galway.. (sorry being snooty, Weld is a top trainer and knows what he is talking about)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,351 ✭✭✭✭Harry Angstrom


    Lt Dan wrote: »
    I would suggest Hanzand and Weld, but knowing Weld he always wants soft and probably wants him for Galway.. (sorry being snooty, Weld is a top trainer and knows what he is talking about)

    What race at Galway would be suitable for Harzand? :confused:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    Lt Dan wrote: »
    Workforce was still placed in the Dante, 2nd. Like him, it was Cape Blanco's first group grace and first race of the 3 year old season. Moreover, while he flopped in the French Derby, Cape made up in the Irish Derby and Irish Champion Stakes. Midterm did not put in a mature performance.

    Watch the video of his Sandown run,Mid Term's action in the first part of the race looked weird like he was already at full pace, he looked uncomfortable (alas only his second race) Can Smullen (who I rate and has proven himself on the big day) take any criticism for how Midterm was ridden? I am not too sure, want to watch it again.

    I hope I am wrong, but I sense that Juddmonte will send him to Ascot , maybe the King Edward. They are not the types that throw a horse into a big race like that for the hell of it. Twice Over flopped badly at the Dante, and he turned out all right. They might look at the bigger picture.

    Stoute should have a look at Across The Stars, and draw a line in the sand over his Lingfield ride.

    If I was Fabre and Bolger I would be really thinking about Epsom with their horses. I would suggest Hanzand and Weld, but knowing Weld he always wants soft and probably wants him for Galway.. (sorry being snooty, Weld is a top trainer and knows what he is talking about)

    I'm not saying Midterm is good enough to win a Derby, but he's the Stoute Derby horse and that's the type of horse that wins Derbies and Stoute has a good team of 3yos this year. He ran a stinker in the Dante, was Coltish in the paddock and was at the back fighting the jockey and throwing away his chance. IF HE RUNS in the Derby ( doubt he'll run ) he's likely to be in much better form than he was in the Dante and the extra few furlongs would suit him. Workforce was Stoutes Derby horse when he hung badly in the Dante behind Cape Blanco ( who'd won Gp2 and Gp3 races as a 2yo ). The big difference between the two Stoute horses is that Workforce was a machine at home and Midterm's pedigree was the main thing driving his exalted reputation.

    Weld's horse was impressive but if he was going to win the Derby he'd have been targeted at it. I'm not convinced that Weld has the kind of horses that win Epsom Derbies and he has sent some well fancied flops to Epsom.

    I like the Sea The Stars colts as stayers and they're probably well suited by the stamina test of the Derby. The problem with Across The Stars for me is that I don't rate Humphrey Bogart all that highly.

    O'Brien has sent his best Epsom Derby contenders to the Guineas and Chester in recent years so it's hard to rate Derby Trials such as the Derrinstown and Sandown


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,295 ✭✭✭Lt Dan


    What race at Galway would be suitable for Harzand? :confused:

    I was being a twit when I suggested that, probably should have put one of them smiley faces next to the sentence


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 101 ✭✭Blackclaret


    The Gurkha fairly hosed up, though can see him back in France for the Prix JC, I notice a few talking about stouts STS but knowbody wants to know about the French one , Cloth of stars.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,744 ✭✭✭diomed


    The Gurkha looked good running on a pancake-flat track in a straight line. The time was about a second faster than the fillies race, or put another way at 5 length a second, the fillies would have finished where the colt finished in the Poulains. The Gurkha looked like a big horse and that would be a slight doubt at Epsom.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,101 ✭✭✭klairondavis


    diomed wrote: »
    The Gurkha looked good running on a pancake-flat track in a straight line. The time was about a second faster than the fillies race, or put another way at 5 length a second, the fillies would have finished where the colt finished in the Poulains. The Gurkha looked like a big horse and that would be a slight doubt at Epsom.

    He did win at Navan - albeit only a maiden. He never looked unbalanced coming down the hill there.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,625 ✭✭✭✭Johner


    The Gurkha was very impressive but I'd imagine he beat a very average group of horses. Look at the bunch finish for second with First Selection nabbing second.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,693 ✭✭✭paddyisreal


    I think the Gurkas time was a second slower than the fillies race and with the Crisford horse in second there has to be a doubt over the race. Three of the first four home were also drawn in double figures.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,744 ✭✭✭diomed


    paddyisreal
    Thanks for the correction.
    I made a mistake. I looked up the times but got them ****ways. That then puts The Gurkha in a tight finish with about six fillies if he was in their race. Yes, he was in the colts race, but it was probably correct to say he beat a poor lot.
    Again thanks for the correction. I am a stupid.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    In fairness to The Gurkha the time is somewhat less important than the quality of the field he beat, and we're not sure at this stage how good the horses in behind were as there's a few contradictory strands of form there as there are in the Fillies race as well. Track records are often broken by modest enough horses. The finishing time being dependent on the pace of the race.

    What the Gurkha showed yesterday was very impressive finishing speed and he was drawing away from them the further he was going, in a slowly run race there should have been a sprint to the line amongst the pack in behind and he was pulling away from the pack. The sectionals would probably tell the story if we knew them.

    The Racing Post World Class ratings expert is raving about The Gurkha for The Derby and has a very interesting take on the RPR needed to win a Derby.

    http://www.racingpost.com/horses/home.sd?story=2083271#newsArchiveTabs=last7DaysNews


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,744 ✭✭✭diomed


    I will form my own opinion in the week of the race, but this is what a Betfair poster said about the RP ratings expert.
    "As for kin Sam Walker is just a guy who plucks bogus rating figures out of thin air. Utter wise nodding after the event tripe merchant."


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,744 ✭✭✭diomed


    The Gurkha

    Sam Walker
    "There's also the fact that a mile is unlikely to prove his optimum trip long term - just have a look at his pedigree which is absolutely chock full of stamina."
    My comment
    His dam, Chintz, won over 7f twice as a 2yo, but also failed to win over 8f and 9f in six attempts, 5th, 9th, 6th 4th, 7th, 9th. That is not proven stamina.

    Sam Walker
    "He is by Derby winner Galileo and, while his dam won over 7f at two, the rest of her family is made up almost entirely of middle-distance performers, including classy ones like Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe winner Solemia."
    My comment
    Solemia is not in his family. Solemia’s dam is in the pedigree of Chintz, or to put it another way, one of Solemia’s parents is in her family, Solemia is not.
    What about the one horse closely related to The Gurkha. That is Queen Nefertiti (filly), a full sibling of The Gurkha (same sire Galileo, same dam Chintz).
    She ran six times as a 2yo and 3yo: 3x7f, 2x8f, 1x9f, and like Chintz won on in her first race (7f) but didn’t win at 8f and 9f.

    Sam Walker’s article is full of hyperbole
    "destroyed the field", "looks the horse to beat", "pedigree which is absolutely chock full of stamina", "storming away", "sprinting clear" , "world-class three-year-old colt - he found one"

    Galileo is an influence for stamina and when mated with Chintz produced The Gurkha, so the horse might have middle-distance possibilities.
    But the dam was not proven at middle-distance, and not proven at 8f and 9f.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,295 ✭✭✭Lt Dan


    The Gurkha fairly hosed up, though can see him back in France for the Prix JC, I notice a few talking about stouts STS but knowbody wants to know about the French one , Cloth of stars.

    Yep, being following Cloth's battle with Robin of Navan last year. Looks there were are a few decent enough STS horses this year

    If Stoute's STS horse got a better ride (bloody hell, it is not like the jockey was inexperienced to well bred horses) he would at least got 2nd and maybe won


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    diomed wrote: »
    The Gurkha

    Sam Walker
    "There's also the fact that a mile is unlikely to prove his optimum trip long term - just have a look at his pedigree which is absolutely chock full of stamina."
    My comment
    His dam, Chintz, won over 7f twice as a 2yo, but also failed to win over 8f and 9f in six attempts, 5th, 9th, 6th 4th, 7th, 9th. That is not proven stamina.

    Sam Walker
    "He is by Derby winner Galileo and, while his dam won over 7f at two, the rest of her family is made up almost entirely of middle-distance performers, including classy ones like Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe winner Solemia."
    My comment
    Solemia is not in his family. Solemia’s dam is in the pedigree of Chintz, or to put it another way, one of Solemia’s parents is in her family, Solemia is not.
    What about the one horse closely related to The Gurkha. That is Queen Nefertiti (filly), a full sibling of The Gurkha (same sire Galileo, same dam Chintz).
    She ran six times as a 2yo and 3yo: 3x7f, 2x8f, 1x9f, and like Chintz won on in her first race (7f) but didn’t win at 8f and 9f.

    Sam Walker’s article is full of hyperbole
    "destroyed the field", "looks the horse to beat", "pedigree which is absolutely chock full of stamina", "storming away", "sprinting clear" , "world-class three-year-old colt - he found one"

    Galileo is an influence for stamina and when mated with Chintz produced The Gurkha, so the horse might have middle-distance possibilities.
    But the dam was not proven at middle-distance, and not proven at 8f and 9f.

    I'd agree that his notions about The Gurkha's Derby pedigree are plain ignorant, but as regards ratings etc I don't think he's plucking figures out of thin air. He gives The Gurkha an RPR of 122 which is the equivalent of an OR of 120 because the RPR of horses usually seems to be 2lb higher than the OR.

    To be fair to the horse he gave an 11lb beating to the second horse which has an OR 109 which ran out of its skin. They can't all have been useless behind him and the top French stables were there. His point about 15 of the last 17 Derby winners having posted best RPRs of 117+ at some stage before the Derby seemed to be worth thinking about.

    I'd much prefer US Army Ranger and Wings Of Desire as probable Derby winners than go with the speedy The Gurkha but I've a healthy respect for The Gurkha. The Derby is usually won by exceptional horses and that horse cruised to a 5 1/2l classic win after winning his maiden by 9l and that marks him out as a special horse.

    Looking at The Gurkha's pedigree, I don't think it'll stop him if he's going to run. Chintz's Dam is a Slew Of Gold mare ( out of a Shirley Heights mare ) who produced a two times 12.5f soft ground winner out of the speedy stallion Fasilev. I'd regard Danehill Dancer as a reasonably neutral presence between Grand Dam and Galileo. The Gurkha has a DI of 1.10 which is solid enough ( and better than Deauville 1.29 and Idaho 1.20 ) and very few Galileo's don't stay.

    Basically he's got the same type of pedigree as the brilliant miler Rip Van Winkle who was out of a Stravinsky mare and Rip Van Winkle also had a DI of 1.10. Rip was a fast finishing and staying on 4th beaten 2l by Sea The Stars in a top class Derby with Fame and Glory almost overhauled in 2nd by RPV.

    I'm sticking with US Army Ranger ( if he runs ) regardless of who else runs in the Derby.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 492 ✭✭Wicklow Brave


    I think a lot will depend on how Air Force Blue does at the Curragh on Saturday. If AFB disappoints again then I think The Gurkha stick to a mile, maybe go to 10f, basically what Gleneagles was supposed to do last year. The Gurkha is the best 3yo colt we've seen so far this season and I'd fancy him to beat Galileo Gold in the SJP (although without contradicting myself I don't think GG has been getting the credit he deserves) but I just couldn't fancy TG at Epsom. He settles really well which is an asset of course but after his maiden at Navan, I thought there was no way he'd stay in the Derby and I'm struggling to alter that view after his win at the weekend (more me being stubborn than the horse, mind). Horse has so much pace.

    If AFB does manage to turn it around and wins on Saturday, I think they'll go Prix du Jockey Club with TG. The stable seem to have a huge amount of faith in USAR and last year they didn't even have a Derby colt yet didn't run Gleneagles at Epsom. The Gurkha would a serious stallion prospect for Coolmore if he's won a French 2000G, SJP, Sussex, International/Marois, ICS/QEII, Breeders Cup Mile/Classic by the season's end. I'll be shocked if he runs in the Derby anyway.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,744 ✭✭✭diomed


    Sky Kingdom
    Friday 20th May 15:30 Goodwood Cocked Hat Stakes (Listed) 1m 3f
    This is the race Storm The Stars ran in before the 2015 Derby.

    My Derby bet
    Sky Kingdom 208.44 €64.53 €13,386.27
    Last price matched 310, available at 70
    He probably need to win on Friday to run in the Derby.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,744 ✭✭✭diomed


    tryfix wrote: »
    Chintz's Dam is a Slew Of Gold mare ( out of a Shirley Heights mare ) who produced a two times 12.5f soft ground winner out of the speedy stallion Fasilev.
    I don't take much notice of low level form. Fruela won two races at 2500 metres, a handicap and a claimer, before going on to a 4th in Madrid and a 12th in Mijas. Fruela is not in the pedigree of The Gurkha.


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