Frampton vs. Santa Cruz

Joe Musashi

The fight is on for the summer in New York. Exact venue and date still to be announced.

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/frampton-face-santa-cruz-wba-featherweight-crown-205640166--box.html

Who wins?

Andre 3000

At the moment I'm leaning towards Leo by clear unanimous decision. Too busy and too much volume. Carl will need a KO I think. Should be a great fight though.

Henno30

It really comes down to whether or not Carl cracks hard enough to get Leo's respect. If Santa Cruz thinks he can absorb Carl's shots he will overwhelm and stop him. I did not think Frampton looked at all capable when Quigg finally took the fight to the inside against him. Leo throws huge volume and is a big man. I don't think Carl will be able to live with it.

walshb

This is physically a tougher fight than Rigo. As Henno says, if Carl cannot discourage LSC, he is in for a hard night. Carl's team need to come up with a plan B, and that plan should be a real slick defense. Make LSC miss as much as possible and counter him mid to close range for the night to earn a points win. Carl may need to be Mayweather like to win this. Shoot a lot less, but make the shots count whilst avoiding punishment. Carl is a complete boxer, but when you are meeting world class oppostion with strength and volume, doing the complete boxing routine can become very diffciult to sustain.

megadodge

pac_man wrote: »

When I look at Santa Cruz fight, I think his style is effective rather than intelligent. In many ways Quigg and Santa Cruz have alot of similarties. The high guard makes them hard to really tag, they both come forward in straight lines and they've a reliance to fighting on the inside.

Some people might question will Frampton start to wilt under the constant pressure of Santa Cruz given the fact that his output in the second half of the Quigg fight was low. I don't think he will. I've a feeling he may over-trained for that fight and the move up in weight will suit Frampton.

I will admit that I've a disliking towards Santa Cruz but that's more down to the way Haymon has managed him than his ability. He did look lacklustre in them fights in which he was fighting sparring partners for stupid money but recently I was really impressed with his performances particularly against Mares.

If Frampton can keep this at range which is doable but difficult given the height,reach and relentlessness that Cruz possess, Id fancy him to win. It's going to be a long night with lots of sidestepping.

Very good breakdown.

I too wasn't too gone on Santa Cruz (as a fighter) but have been quite impressed with him in the last two years. However, I think Carl is the better boxer and can outbox him with clever movement and punch-picking.

You mention that a step up in weight might help Carl's stamina and maybe it will, but it's still a worry for me. I expect Carl to be ahead after 7-8 rounds, but can he hold Santa Cruz off in the later rounds? That's where the fight will be won and lost in my opinion.

walshb

pac_man wrote: »

I had a look at the latter stages of his fights against Kiko and admittedly
he looked a bit tired in them but not to the stage were he was out on his feet.Fighting on the backfoot constantly for 12 rounds is going to have that effect and I wouldn't expect it to be any different with Santa Cruz.

It will be interesting to see how Santa Cruz reacts when he might not have the big fanfare that he gets in the west coast. There might be more Irish if Lee is on the undercard.

If we're bringing in fans as a possible reason for Carl winning we're clutching.

walshb

pac_man wrote: »

It affects both fighters. Who do you fancy to win?

I'd have to lean with LSC. Like a few champions today, there seems something a little fragile with Carl. I just can't see Carl keeping LSC off him for the 12 rounds, and he won't overly trouble LSC with his power. A grind down stoppage win for LSC is probably the most likely outcome.

SHOVELLER

Cannot wait for this. Barclays is a superb venue. Should be some occasion.

Too close to call IMO.

walshb

pac_man wrote: »

What do you find vulnerable about him? I think Frampton is the bigger puncher in this, Santa cruz gets most of his knockouts from an accumulation of punches.

I don't think Carl loses from single shot connections. I think Carl won't have the pysical presenece to keep LSC off him for long enough, and I have a feeling that Carl won't be up for a real bruising fight against a bigger man who is very busy, tough, strong and who can throw from all angles. LSC has decent power, enough to hurt Carl. And, with the volume and pace he sets that power will be amplified. Carl need to be ultra slick and defensive to stand a chance here, as well as getting off enough of his own offense to win rds.

BTW, punch for punch I think they're about even as regards force. Carl isn't a big puncher.

Johner

Late stoppage or points win for Santa Cruz, I think he'll just have too much for Frampton and will be all over him from the get go.

SHOVELLER

Tickets booked this morning through the pre-sale.

Great venue for a great occasion.

Digital Society

At least he will get well paid i suppose. Pity it had to end this way.

walshb

Digital Society wrote: »

At least he will get well paid i suppose. Pity it had to end this way.

Little bit of a cryptic post this?

akelly02

why would he not fight rigondeoux? am i missing something

Too Tough To Die

akelly02 wrote: »

why would he not fight rigondeoux? am i missing something

Short version; less money, bigger chance of losing, and losing badly.

Chieftain

Anyone know if this will be on TV over here. Thought it would have been on SKY but cant see it listed anywhere

awec

Chieftain wrote: »

Anyone know if this will be on TV over here. Thought it would have been on SKY but cant see it listed anywhere

Sky Sports 1 I thought?

About 1am on the Sunday morning (31 July) ?

Chieftain

Ah sound, I had just looked on the Sky Sports boxing site and it wasn't mention under the 'Boxing on Sky'. That's good news, should be a good fight

Terrontress

Still no news on who is broadcasting it?

Surely there would be a big enough market for it.

If it is Box Nation, is it possible to subscribe for one night?

Chieftain

still doesn't seem to be any news on this - with a bit of luck BoxNation will pick it up at the last minute

Johner

It's been confirmed on BoxNation.

Johner

https://twitter.com/boxnationtv/status/756093491739058177

Chieftain

nice one, am delighted with that

walshb

Very little debate on this fight. It's the first fight in quite a while that I have been looking forward to. I won't catch it live as I just can't do stupid o'clock anymore. Who's going to brave it out and who's going to sleep it out?

boxer.fan

walshb wrote: »

Very little debate on this fight. It's the first fight in quite a while that I have been looking forward to. I won't catch it live as I just can't do stupid o'clock anymore. Who's going to brave it out and who's going to sleep it out?

I think we might be a bit concerned for Frampton after his lacklustre win against Quigg. In general, his form previous to that would have lead me to believe he had a good chance against LSC.
He has said that the move up in weight is making a difference in his prep this time but I'm not convinced.
Am hoping for a good competitive match.

Johner

I don't think LSC will give Frampton a moment's peace. Will be on him from the first bell and I'm not sure Frampton will have enough to hold him off for 12 rounds. Can't wait though and am hoping Frampton does the business but can see a late LSC stoppage.

walshb

Johner wrote: »

I don't think LSC will give Frampton a moment's peace. Will be on him from the first bell and I'm not sure Frampton will have enough to hold him off for 12 rounds. Can't wait though and am hoping Frampton does the business but can see a late LSC stoppage.

I see it the same, but can Carl use LSC aggression against him? Being very slippy and unorthodox. Spoiling and stealing and constant moving. Carl can box very well in all motions. It's a huge ask. Carl needs to really disrupt and spoil Leo's fluid aggression.

boxer.fan

walshb wrote: »

I see it the same, but can Carl use LSC aggression against him? Being very slippy and unorthodox. Spoiling and stealing and constant moving. Carl can box very well in all motions. It's a huge ask. Carl needs to really disrupt and spoil Leo's fluid aggression.

It should be interesting to find out how strong LSC is compared to Quigg. I don't think he will have anywhere near the same strength which might allow Carl crack him one or two well timed good ones.
Dammit I'm talking myself into a late night.

walshb

boxer.fan wrote: »

It should be interesting to find out how strong LSC is compared to Quigg. I don't think he will have anywhere near the same strength which might allow Carl crack him one or two well timed good ones.
Dammit I'm talking myself into a late night.

Not sure the strength comparison is of relevance. Quigg did nothing the whole fight. Carl's issue is LSC volume and pace, as well as his fairly heavy hands and reliable chin.

boxer.fan

walshb wrote: »

Not sure the strength comparison is of relevance. Quigg did nothing the whole fight. Carl's issue is LSC volume and pace, as well as his fairly heavy hands and reliable chin.

I get the whole volume & intensity that LSC will bring. But it's possible Carl might earn some early respect with a few well placed & timed shots.

Morrison J

pac_man wrote: »

Surely the move up in weight along with the absence of an IBF checkweight will be to Frampton's benefit.

My thinking too. He was very dry on the scales before the Quigg fight.

It's crucial that Carl makes LSC feel his power in order to keep him off him as much as possible. Also think moving up in weight should help Carl's stamina which will prove a big factor against an action fighter like LSC.

I'm giving Frampton a slight edge in this one but it's basically a 50/50. Brilliant fight that should be getting far more coverage from the press.

Morrison J

walshb wrote: »

Not sure the strength comparison is of relevance. Quigg did nothing the whole fight. Carl's issue is LSC volume and pace, as well as his fairly heavy hands and reliable chin.

Wouldn't call Santa Cruz heavy handed at all. He's the opposite if anything.

Frampton's lateral movement will be key as well as his ability to throw clean short hooks. Putting it out there that I think the counter right hook will be huge on the night. Kiko Martinez KO shot comes to mind.

At the end of the day the fight will come down to whether Frampton can make LSC feel his power enough to keep off the pressure as much as possible. If not Carl could be in for a tough night.

Not entirely sure why but I'm confident enough he'll get through this.

Kaiser84

walshb wrote: »

Very little debate on this fight. It's the first fight in quite a while that I have been looking forward to. I won't catch it live as I just can't do stupid o'clock anymore. Who's going to brave it out and who's going to sleep it out?

It won't be a 5am job like a Vegas fight, mate.

Kaiser84

Take it back, sorry!!. Runnimg time has Frampton in the ring at 4.10am.


I'm changing my mind about this fight by the hour.

Looking forward to seeing Garcia back in the ring too.

SHOVELLER

Might have a spare ticket for this if anyone is in the city saturday.

walshb

Kaiser84 wrote: »

It won't be a 5am job like a Vegas fight, mate.

True. I had forgotten that it's East Coast. I may well make it.

Just saw your edit. 0400? That's gonna' be tough.

walshb

Morrison J wrote: »

Wouldn't call Santa Cruz heavy handed at all. He's the opposite if anything.

.

I think he can bang a bit. Not massive, but heavy shots with snap. Enough to trouble Carl if he lands clean.

The more I think of it the more I feel that Carl simply needs to be James Toney like to win here. That effective use of the opponent's aggression against him. Making him miss, making him tire, making him second guess committing; all the while countering with crisp and telling shots. This fight could well be won and lost in the pocket. Carl is good in the pocket. How good against a strong quality fighter is the question.

barney4001

think I back cruz for inside distance Frampton 15/8 with powers

Diddley Squat

Kaiser84

Gutted I didn't go over for this. War Frampton!!

Kaiser84

barney4001 wrote: »

think I back cruz for inside distance Frampton 15/8 with powers

He's now 9/4 to win and 10/3 to win on points (was 5/2 this morning)

His odds have drifted slowly the last 10 days, but 10/3 from 5/2 to win on points is a hell of a jump since the weigh in.

Kaiser84

walshb wrote: »

I think he can bang a bit. Not massive, but heavy shots with snap. Enough to trouble Carl if he lands clean.

The more I think of it the more I feel that Carl simply needs to be James Toney like to win here. That effective use of the opponent's aggression against him. Making him miss, making him tire, making him second guess committing; all the while countering with crisp and telling shots. This fight could well be won and lost in the pocket. Carl is good in the pocket. How good against a strong quality fighter is the question.

I don't like Carl's inside game all that much, but he's great at judging the distance. He'll have to get in and out quickly, use lateral movement and not let himself get backed onto the ropes.

Santa Cruz might throw over 100 punches a round, but if Frampton can make him miss and hurt him early doors, Santa Cruz won't be throwing so many punches.

This fight hinges on whether Frampton carries power up to Featherweight, in my opinion. He'll judge the distance to get past Santa Cruz's jab, he has good timing, he has excellent footwork, good ring IQ, but, can he make Santa Cruz respect his power enough to deter him from throwing lots of power punches?


I was 50/50 and changing my mind most of the week, but I think now that Frampton is going to win.

Kaiser84

Morrison J wrote: »

Wouldn't call Santa Cruz heavy handed at all. He's the opposite if anything.

Frampton's lateral movement will be key as well as his ability to throw clean short hooks. Putting it out there that I think the counter right hook will be huge on the night. Kiko Martinez KO shot comes to mind.

At the end of the day the fight will come down to whether Frampton can make LSC feel his power enough to keep off the pressure as much as possible. If not Carl could be in for a tough night.

Not entirely sure why but I'm confident enough he'll get through this.

Read back and looks like I stole your post. Agree big time on the short hooks, if/when Frampton closes the distance, he'll be looking to slip Santa Cruz's shots and whip those hooks in. He has power in both hands.

It's gonna be really tough, but with the right game plan he can definitely win.

Burial.

I find it hard to think of a way Carl can keep Santa Cruz off him enough for 12 rounds. Santa Cruz will throw so many punches that he'll win rounds on output alone. Frampton has to box a perfect fight, nothing less will do. The reach advantage is significant so Frampton will have to be super quick and sharp getting in and getting out without receiving much leather in return. And trying to go toe to toe with Santa Cruz simply won't work as few or any can compete with his intensity and love of a brawl. Santa Cruz's body attack is highly underrated as well.

Santa Cruz appears to have good whiskers and I'm not buying this whole thing of Frampton being a big puncher, he's got above average power. People say Carl will feel more natural at this weight and his power will improve but if that were the case should have been butchering lads at 122 and you could hardly say he was drained massively at that weight. Carl though has a great brain and is a terrific little fighter, so if anyone can find a way it's him. I'd be thrilled if he got the win it would be one of the best nights in Irish Boxing history. However I cannot see past Santa Cruz.

walshb

Carl for me for me is an ordinary puncher. Can hurt you, but not really stun you bad. Certainly nothing to suggest a harder-heavier puncher than LSC!

YFlyer

On any pub in Limerick City?

megadodge

pac_man wrote: »

Conrad Cummings currently on boxnation, doesn't look great.

Right from the off I just felt Cummings won't really amount to much. I've seen him a few times now and he just reminds me of another Eamon O'Kane. Far too straight-forward and too easy to hit.

With his style he could be in some exciting fights though.

Dick phelan

The reach advantage is fecking massive for LSC, odds stacked against Carl here unfortunately i'v been getting more and more confident in my pick of LSC points just think the reach and workrate will be too much for Carl to overcome

megadodge

My big worry for Carl is the later rounds. I believe his better skill levels will have him ahead by 6-7 rounds, but after that will he be able to withstand the relentlessness of the Mexican? I hope so, but it's what makes it such an intriguing fight.

megadodge

Really looking forward to seeing Mikey Garcia again. One of my favourite fighters of recent years and it's so annoying that his career has been so badly stalled.

Will be interesting to see how rusty he is.

What time is ring walk for Frampton?