80th La Flèche Wallonne (1.UWT) - Wednesday 20th April 2016

MPFGLB

The race where it all comes down to the final steep 1.3 km up hill finish Mur de Huy
Average gradient 9.3% ; Maximum gradient 26%



Startlist: http://www.procyclingstats.com/race/La_Fleche_Wallonne_2016_Startlist

Video Preview:
http://cyclinghub.tv/post.php?id=1518

Main Contenders : Dan Martin, Alejandro Valverde , Sergio Heano
Also among the favourites are Julian Alaphilippe, , Joaquim Rodriguez, , Enrico Gasparotto, Roman Kreuziger, , Michael Albasini, Tom-Jelte Slagter, Danni Moreno, Wout Poels, Tim Wellens, Rui Costa, Wilko Kelderman

I am interested in seeing how Carlos Betencur goes here ....did very well in 2013.
Also two good outsiders for a podium place/top 4 imo are Jelle Vanendert and Lars Petter Nordhaug

manwithaplan

Dan has a tendency to find himself a bit poorly positioned for the final effort in this race. Getting a good spot at the bottom of the hill is very hard and he's often launched a brilliant effort but from too far back. Alaphilippe looked very good on these sorts of finishes last year but I'm not sure about his form. Maybe Valverde just because he's always ready for this one and LBL.

MPFGLB

Lets hope Dan has his positioning sorted this year as can hopefully deliver

Raam

I'm hoping Ettix will be able to help him with the positioning. That's one thing they are usually good at.

MPFGLB

Well he seems pretty confident

http://www.irishexaminer.com/sport/other-sports/dan-martin-hoping-to-go-one-better-in-belgium-return-393806.html

Borderfox

Gentlemen start your engines!!

Pudsy33

Really hoping Dan does the business, as it's the one race he really loves that he hasn't won. You'd have to think Valverde is the man to beat, he's just so damn consistent on this climb. Don't expect J-Rod to be very good as he's been ropey this season. Henao was might impressive in Pais Vasco but I don't think this is quite hard enough for him. Albasini another one to watch, OGE will let him off the leash for once and he's very very consistent here too. Of the rank outsiders, keep an eye out for DeTier, Lammertink, and Rusty Woods.

Podium of 1. Dan, Valverde, Albasini for me.

brocbrocach

I have a feeling Wellens will do it
+ Dani Moreno will be dangerous if himself and Valverde do the oul one two

TheBlaaMan

FWIW


Race starts at 10:40am BST

Finish at around 3:37pm BST

Live video from 1:15pm BST

Pudsy33

brocbrocach wrote: »

I have a feeling Wellens will do it
+ Dani Moreno will be dangerous if himself and Valverde do the oul one two

Wellens will attack on the last climb but blow up again I suspect. They are a dangerous one two combo alright, thankfully Dan has his own partner in crime with Allaphillipe.

I can't wait

brocbrocach

Yeah I'd forgotten Dan is pairing up with Alaphillippe! The tactics of that will be great. You'd assume Movistar will do their best for Valverde and Moreno will be bait, but that might work too. I'd be a bit scared the two Quicksteppers will get in each others way - I can't see either of them getting preference.

Pudsy33

The climb is an every man for himself kinda thing tbh. Once they get Dan to the bottom near the front then that's all you can do. If Allaphillipe gets up it quick than Martin, more power to him! Patience is key, and I hope Dans experience comes to the fore. On the Wellens point, his attack will stick one day, I just think it's more likely in Liege or Amstel than here.

MPFGLB

Wellens was very strong at Amstel....he flew pass Kreuziger and held the peloton off for an age into strong wind

Thing was he may have succeeded if anyone went with him ..or if he left it till Gasperotto went .....all part of the learning experience I guess

Pudsy33

Dans task just got a little easier, Henao is a DNS as his biological passport is investigated

MPFGLB

The whole Heano thing is strange...SKY suspended him before in 2014 and now he is being investigated by Cycling Anti Doping Foundation

The SKY slant is the Heano being Colombian and training all winter at altitude his blood values are difficult to interpret but what about all the other Colombians in the peloton including his cousin, Uran, Quintana, etc ...does not seem to be an issue for them ?

I am as far as I looked at it I'm not a great supporter of the definitive stamp of BP...its more an indicator ...but after the Kreuziger case that seemed to take ages but was never fully explained Heano could have a long road ahead of him

Taxuser1

MPFGLB wrote: »

The whole Heano thing is strange...SKY suspended him before in 2014 and now he is being investigated by Cycling Anti Doping Foundation

The SKY slant is the Heano being Colombian and training all winter at altitude his blood values are difficult to interpret but what about all the other Colombians in the peloton including his cousin, Uran, Quintana, etc ...does not seem to be an issue for them ?

I am as far as I looked at it I'm not a great supporter of the definitive stamp of BP...its more an indicator ...but after the Kreuziger case that seemed to take ages but was never fully explained Heano could have a long road ahead of him

read Ross Tucker on this topic this morning.
I honestly think this is an altitude thing. And as you know, I'm quite dubious, Ted.

MPFGLB

Not a fan of Ross Tucker....tend to side with the Cycling Podcasts view on him as reveled in their Podcast on Chris Froome's data release last year

The point i was making was that the altitude as pertaining to other Colombians does not seem to be an issue. So to put it at the door of altitude alone does not explain the issue in my book

And after Kreuziger long suspension there was no real resolution on his BP nor on what the problem was in the first place...hence my skepticism over the BP as a fit for purpose tool

neris

trek riders on the ground again, they always seem to have riders crash

stecleary

neris wrote: »

trek riders on the ground again, they always seem to have riders crash

3 of them :eek:

neris

stecleary wrote: »

3 of them :eek:

yep n a broken collar bone for schleck

Pudsy33

I haven't spotted a single Ettixx man in about 20kms

montac

Pudsy33 wrote: »

I haven't spotted a single Ettixx man in about 20kms

There's one off the front now. Bob Jungels. But maybe it's a change of tactic from the cobbled races where they were oh so visible on the front for so long for many of the races - with little reward.

Pudsy33

Ah the Tim Wellens optimistic attack

MPFGLB

There goes Tim Wellens again...you could set your clock by him

neris

hope this isnt a dan been there now only to be shot out the back

neris

cmon dan

Pudsy33

Etixx played it perfectly, just Valverde is too damn strong

neris

dan 3rd

valverde
alphilipe
dan

happytramp

I know it's very prestigious and we have a rider that usually goes well in it..... but surely there's never been a consistently less entertaining race.

pelevin

Possibly could argue Dan should have waited for Valverde to make the first move but almost certainly harsh & simply looks like the strongest man won - and a strong man unafflicted by any self-defeating nerves to open the door for others.

Pudsy33

pelevin wrote: »

Possibly could argue Dan should have waited for Valverde to make the first move but almost certainly harsh & simply looks like the strongest man won - and a strong man unafflicted by any self-defeating nerves to open the door for others.

I think the plan must have been for Martin to attack early and for Allaphillipe to follow wheels. It almost worked too but Valverde is just a freak

dastardly00

Like him or loathe him, you have to hand it to Valverde. Four wins in FW is fantastic.

pelevin

Pudsy33 wrote: »

I think the plan must have been for Martin to attack early and for Allaphillipe to follow wheels. It almost worked too but Valverde is just a freak

Yeah, that would make sense but on such a climb as you say strength will out.

pelevin

dastardly00 wrote: »

Like him or loathe him, you have to hand it to Valverde. Four wins in FW is fantastic.

And the only serious one-day racer who is also a serious GT gc rider. A reasonable ask would be in such a race where are likes of Quintana, Froome & Contador.

Pudsy33

pelevin wrote: »

And the only serious one-day racer who is also a serious GT gc rider. A reasonable ask would be in such a race where are likes of Quintana, Froome & Contador.

I would have been skeptical that they were fast enough, but Froome did well here in the Tour. Still don't think either of those would win though

MPFGLB

As Alex Howes says ...only about 5 riders can win this race. That and the fact that it all boils down to the last 1.3km make it not the best race to watch

https://twitter.com/Ride_Argyle/status/722721667273854977

smurphy29

Boring, predictable race. It seems the finish is just too hard and strangles the race, with no excitement until the final kilometre. An uphill bunch sprint.

A good performance by Dan, but with very little tactical finesse at 15%+ gradients, it's simply a race of brute force to the top. Valverde is simply unbeatable on this climb.

As for the likes of Quintana and Froome, they would not have the kick required to beat the puncheurs, or Valverde, on such a short climb. Their USP is their ability to go very steady, but very fast, up long, hard Alpine mountains. With all the crash risk associated with the spring classics, they'd be risking a lot just going for a potential top 10.

Whatever you say about Valverde, taking his achievements at face value he is - along with Sagan, perhaps - pound for pound the best bike racer in the world. His all-round ability is extraordinary. There is nobody else who can win and perform well in so many kinds of bike races. He can win three-week grand tours, short stage races and one day races; he can climb, time trial and sprint and he is a demon descender. He seems unaffected by conditions, and also appears to maintain a high level right through the calendar. How do you know Valverde is racing to win? Because he has signed on and has a number on his back.

pelevin

Pudsy33 wrote: »

I would have been skeptical that they were fast enough, but Froome did well here in the Tour. Still don't think either of those would win though

No but I like the idea of things not being wholly compartmentalised into, "I'll only race in events exactly suited to my profile." Things like Nibali's ride over the wet cobbles of the Tour a couple of years ago, Kelly winning Liege, Dumoulin in the Vuelta etc. Ototh riders like Quintana & Froome are great in the climbs but these aren't exactly their kind of climbs so . . . Though to a degree I'm talking more about how they should be real challengers in say Liege, I know how extreme this finish here is but I'd still appreciate them being in it rather than doing training blocks wherever.

MPFGLB

I think one of the Movistar DS's said that Valverde turns up at the first winter training camp ready to go ...he is always in form. He is for me the best rider in the peloton but I have no passion to watch him race ...

happytramp

MPFGLB wrote: »

I think one of the Movistar DS's said that Valverde turns up at the first winter training camp ready to go ...he is always in form. He is for me the best rider in the peloton but I have no passion to watch him race ...

I agree wholeheartedly with this. Amazing rider but I'm just not into him. At all.

neris

pelevin wrote: »

I know how extreme this finish here is but I'd still appreciate them being in it rather than doing training blocks wherever.

big squads and too many races on mean that the big hitters can sit out till the GTs or pre GT stage races??

pelevin

neris wrote: »

big squads and too many races on mean that the big hitters can sit out till the GTs or pre GT stage races??

Good point about squad size. I wonder if back a little in the day the squads were more streamlined.

neris

pelevin wrote: »

Good point about squad size. I wonder if back a little in the day the squads were more streamlined.

The other thing is that back in the day of say mercxx or hinault they werent paid as much so had to ride every thing just to make a living plus the calendar for the big teams was probably smaller. They werent going to australia, the middle east, the states or uk to race either. I think in one of the hinault books his team was about 20 riders and they might only be speread over 2 races at a time.

Taxuser1

Quick Step had such a strong hand for the finale - I had backed Alaphilippe for the win ( 12/1) and thought I was on a winning docket. He looked poised to jump around.

Before yesterday, Boylesports had him at 33/1 for 4 places for Sunday' Liege race, now clear 3rd favourite in single figures. Etixx look to have options. Valverde will be left short of options and forced to chase a Martin or Alaphilppe attack and unless Gerrans pulls his finger out, either of the Etixx boys could take it. Probably better Ardennes chances than cobbled chances this year.

Raam

Taxuser1

Valverde was barely out of breath after the line. Alaphilippe was in bits as was Martin.

Unbelievable Jeff.

MPFGLB

Taxuser1 wrote: »

Valverde was barely out of breath after the line. Alaphilippe was in bits as was Martin.

Unbelievable Jeff.

Agree it is unbelievable

Purito seems to have lost his mojo....time was he could tear up that climb at FW

I think LBL will be a very different race with team not allowing OGE & Valverde an easy ride to the line

I think Nibali will have a good go at the title at LBL

manwithaplan

I would be more optimistic about Dan's chances in LBL. I think the extra distance suits him and he is usually canny enough about saving his legs, with a decent team to help. Having said that, Alaphilippe also being in the mix complicates things but I would have thought Dan is more proven over the course and should get the protection he needs. Obviously Valverde will be hard to beat again but LBL is a less straightforward race tactically and he is far from a sure thing.

Taxuser1

i've the two backed anyway. Dan will go where he normally goes if he has the legs. Alaphilippe can wait and see how that pans out and go after he's chased back, or not.

fat bloke

It's a bit mad alright. The whole 200km preamble seems like a complete waste of time and effort. I don't why they don't just blow the whistle at the foot of the climb and have them race to the top altogether. Result would probably be the same and 'twould all be over in less than 5 minutes.

manwithaplan

Marcel Kittel would probably win it then! I agree it's as boring as hell but dragging the legs out of everyone is part of the process - the bunch at the bottom of the Mur wasn't that big.