Future of the Boeing 747..

pepe the prawn

I've always had a major softspot for the 747. The size, look, shape and heritage of it make it an iconic aircraft.

But is its time coming to an end? The Airbus A380 firmly grasped its position, particularly with heavy carriers such as Emirates, Air France Etc.. Virgin are retiring their 747 fleet, KLM still retain some 747's, Air France have already retired theirs, Emirates only use the 747 for cargo, with BA being the exception by modernising and refitting some, but not all, of their 747 fleet and predict extended usage until at least 2020. There are other carriers across the world using it, Saudi Arabian Airlines, Quantas, Air China, to name just a few, but I'm unsure of their future plans or current status with regard to the 747.

Lufthansa are Europes exception, with them being the largest operator of the new 747-800, I think at 19 aircraft.

Competition from Airbus has seen quieter, more efficient engines and increased seating become the all important selling point, with the A380 being its main contender. Even offerings from Boeing itself sees the 777 and 787 satisfy intermediate gaps where the 747 once dominated, perhaps nudging the 747 closer to extinction.

Its main hope at the moment seems to be in cargo, where it is still dominates the market for weightlifting, capacity and hauling abilities. But I wonder will sufficient cargo orders be enough to keep this aircraft in production? It would be a sad day for the skies if the 747 is parked globally.

Lockheed

The last hope for the 747 is cargo, and currently we are in a slump in the global air cargo market that has seen carriers like Martinair retire their MD11s and Air France Cargo retire their 747s. There's not much hope now, i'm afraid to say

smurfjed

Saudi Arabian Airlines

Should retire their passenger aircraft in the next few months, will be left with 2x -8F, VVIP 744 / 743 and 2x 747-SP.

pepe the prawn

smurfjed wrote: »

Should retire their passenger aircraft in the next few months, will be left with 2x -8F, VVIP 744 / 743 and 2x 747-SP.

Any idea what the planned replacement for the passenger carrying aircraft are?

smurfjed

Lots and lots of these.....

pepe the prawn

smurfjed wrote: »

Lots and lots of these.....

May I ask, have you ever flown a 747, and if so, what did/do you think of it? Does its reputation with aircraft enthusiasts spread across to those who have flown it?

Tenger

I think its fair to say that wide body twins killed the future of the B747, in particular the B773.

Nibs05

The future is economical twin engine aircraft, I.E A350, B777x, 747 will continue on in a freight market, the A380 won't be around in 20-30 years time.

Irish Steve

Nibs05 wrote: »

The future is economical twin engine aircraft, I.E A350, B777x, 747 will continue on in a freight market, the A380 won't be around in 20-30 years time.

There is the issue of runway and gate slots, and if you can carry 600 people using 1 slot or 2, that will be a significant factor at some airports. JAL were using 747's for domestic routes because they could get huge numbers on them, which solved the problem of how to provide the service.

There's a lot more to the operating economics between 2 engines and 4, the total capacity for both freight and passengers is also a significant consideration. Don't be in too much of a hurry to be writing off the very large aircraft just yet,

Senecio

Irish Steve wrote: »

JAL were using 747's for domestic routes because they could get huge numbers on them, which solved the problem of how to provide the service.

I remember taking a 777-200 from Tokyo to Meiji once. Strange experience being on a wide body for all of 65 mins.

smurfjed

Never got to fly the aircraft, but have lots of time in the classic simulator....

elastico

Irish Steve wrote: »

JAL were using 747's for domestic routes because they could get huge numbers on them, which solved the problem of how to provide the service.

What is the shortest possible turnaround time for an A380?

Considering the short flight duration it would not require full catering service, number of bags would be a lot less, it could be refuelled much quicker, just a top up each landing etc.

Globally building new airports and / or expanding existing airports is only going to get more difficult, and with ever increasing global population and passenger numbers then landing slots will become more of an issue.

AndyBoBandy

Senecio wrote: »

Strange experience being on a wide body for all of 65 mins.

Plenty of people would have taken an A330 from DUB-SNN or vice versa for all of 25-35 minutes, which I believe (possibly according to Wikipedia though) was the shortest A330 route in existence, and quite possibly the shortest twin isle route.
You'd always see new passengers on board for the hop from SNN back to DUB in the mornings.

(I'd also hazard a guess people flew the route in the Aer Lingus 747's)

Tenger

AndyBoBandy wrote: »

Plenty of people would have taken an A330 from DUB-SNN or vice versa for all of 25-35 minutes, which I believe (possibly according to Wikipedia though) was the shortest A330 route in existence, and quite possibly the shortest twin isle route.........

At one point in their history EI operated both the shortest and the longest A330 route simultaneously.....SNN-DUB and DUB-ORD.
Long term those short cycles resulted in a long term higher wear and tear on the original EI A333's.

In the past (80's?) EI used to offer a one way DUB-SNN flight on the B747 with bus service back to Dublin. It was a great way to allow people to experience flights for the first time. A long time previously (1950's) EI also introduced "Starlight" flights which were night flights offered a lower price than usual.


As an aside, EI operated an A330 DUB-CWL-DUB on consecutive Sat/Sunday a few years back for a 6 Nations rugby fixture. Fares were dirt cheap on the empty sectors so a group of airliners.net members did a trip report on it. EI got wind of it and had gift bags ready for them. They had the run of the A330 cabin for the 25-30 minute flight and photo ops in the J Class cabin and cockpit on the ground in Dublin on the Saturday. I think they all went spotting in Dublin before going back on the Sunday morning.

Rawr

As a young lad, I remember being granted a rather amazing treat. Through a mate of my father's (who I guess worked for IE or DUB , I can't remember which), myself & the mate's son were brought to the old Team Aer Lingus hanger to be shown around some of the IE aircraft there, including an example of my absolute favourite.

My younger self (and current self to a certain degree), had always been in awe of the 747 Jumbo Jet. I couldn't fathom the awesome technology involved in getting such a massive plane into the air. It's scale and beauty were beyond compare to me.

And so back then in the hanger, to my delighted shock, there was real life Aer Lingus 747.

My memory is still in pieces, but I remember that the plane itself was in many pieces as well. This was in the late 80's so IE's 747's were still in use, and I'm going to guess that this 747 must have been going though a C-check. We climbed a scaffold to get onto the passenger deck, which had been stripped of most of the seats, but the galley was still there as well as an amazing spiral staircase. This in itself was amazing to me. Imagine! Stairs on a plane! Madness

We went up those stairs and for likely the only time in my life, I sat at the controls of a 747. This was an older 747, so it also included an engineer's station in the back. It was almost as if we were on a ship from Star Trek.

I had also gotten the chance to do that same with one of the IE 737s, but it just wasn't the same. (Still awesome, but....you know)

In the many years since then, the experience stayed with me. Although I never felt the desire to pilot a 747 in my adult years, I had always wanted to travel aboard one (To this day this remains an item on my bucket-list). However, in the 2 long-haul journeys I have taken in my life so far, I traveled on an A340 and old A300 respectively. Both experiences were lovely as they were (well..the A340 one was...), but the aircraft simply lacked the beauty of that 747. It's a silly complaint, and really it took nothing away from my journeys, but it was something I wished for.

As time passes, I accept that my chances of flying on a 747 are dwindling. Unless I book with KLM or British Airways for my next long-haul journey, it will probably will be something else that would carry me. The skys are awash with B777s, and A330s and their twin-engined ilk.

My current and more achievable ambition is to fly on the equally awesome A380. However despite its incredible scale, it simply isn't the same. The modern A380 somehow lacks the soul in the design of the 747. So...it's safe to assume that I'll miss it when it is gone

My hope is that the 747-8 keeps the passenger version going a little longer, before the whole lot are converted into freighters, or cut up for scrap.

The Rape of Lucretia

Senecio wrote: »

I remember taking a 777-200 from Tokyo to Meiji once. Strange experience being on a wide body for all of 65 mins.

It is nice. I remember in the 80s Air France, and I think Alitalia, used to use A300 around short enough hops in Europe. It was always much nicer than the DC9s, 737s etc. Was also on a BA 767 from Heathrow to CDG which felt very odd.
Is there any benefit ot future for wide bodies for 1-3 hours flights, or is narrow body without competition for that ?

Also sorry to see the 747 fade. Nothing looks as impressive. Even the A380 size is sort of lost by its uniformity. 747 is still such a site to see its bulk lift off the ground.

cowboyBuilder

It's very sad, not just the 747 but the A380 too - 4 engined planes are doomed, it's all about the long range twin engined planes now like the 777, and A330/350 ... boring zzzzzzzzzz

cowboyBuilder

AndyBoBandy wrote: »

Plenty of people would have taken an A330 from DUB-SNN or vice versa for all of 25-35 minutes, which I believe (possibly according to Wikipedia though) was the shortest A330 route in existence, and quite possibly the shortest twin isle route.
You'd always see new passengers on board for the hop from SNN back to DUB in the mornings.

(I'd also hazard a guess people flew the route in the Aer Lingus 747's)

Yep school tour in the late 1980s we went down to Shannon !!

draiochtanois

This post has been deleted.

salmocab

cowboyBuilder wrote: »

Yep school tour in the late 1980s we went down to Shannon !!

Yeah first trip on a plane alright bunratty castle and bus home. Imagine trying to organize 40 kids onto a plane now for a short trip.

OldMrBrennan83

This post has been deleted.

roundymac

I flew upstairs with SAA on a 743. Very cramped and claustrophobic.
I flew LHR - CDG on an A300 with Air France. 40 mins and still got a meal and a bottle of wine, now thats service.

Tenger

roundymac wrote: »

....
I flew LHR - CDG on an A300 with Air France. 40 mins and still got a meal and a bottle of wine, now thats service.

Like the old days on DUB-LHR with EI and BMI.... drinks, a meal, hot bevy and maybe another drinks if we were holding. I never minded those 15 min holds at LHR!

Irish Steve

The late BA LHR to DUB was sometimes challenging in terms of time available for meal service. I can still remember (a long time ago) a flight back where they started handing out trays before we'd gone over Windsor, and they were still collecting trays as we came over Howth, and if memory serves me correctly (which it might not at this stage) it was a 1-11, so not a huge number on it. We got routed direct across Wales, so no useful dog legs to give the cabin more time to sort out everything. As for the times when they put a Tristar on the route, we'll gloss over them, suffice to say that the cabin crew earned their money on those sectors!

cowboyBuilder

roundymac wrote: »

I flew upstairs with SAA on a 743. Very cramped and claustrophobic.
I flew LHR - CDG on an A300 with Air France. 40 mins and still got a meal and a bottle of wine, now thats service.

I didn't know the 743 existed, I thought it went from 200 to 400 series ...

AndyBoBandy

Remember the 747SP ?

It was a shortened version of the original 747-100 designed for uber long haul, 45 were built (primarily for Middle East customers), and they just look so adorable.

smurfjed

-300, i have no idea as to how many were built, but they had a great upperdeck..

roundymac

cowboyBuilder wrote: »

I didn't know the 743 existed, I thought it went from 200 to 400 series ...

Very similer in appearence to the 744 but without the wing tips.

ohnonotgmail

Irish Steve wrote: »

The late BA LHR to DUB was sometimes challenging in terms of time available for meal service. I can still remember (a long time ago) a flight back where they started handing out trays before we'd gone over Windsor, and they were still collecting trays as we came over Howth, and if memory serves me correctly (which it might not at this stage) it was a 1-11, so not a huge number on it. We got routed direct across Wales, so no useful dog legs to give the cabin more time to sort out everything. As for the times when they put a Tristar on the route, we'll gloss over them, suffice to say that the cabin crew earned their money on those sectors!

I remember that from when i used to do regular trips to london in the 90s. I've never seen cabin crew move so fast. it was like a benny hill sketch at times.

cowboyBuilder

AndyBoBandy wrote: »

Remember the 747SP ?

It was a shortened version of the original 747-100 designed for uber

It was a beauty !

I think NASA still fly one (SOFIA) with a telescope mounted on the back and do circles over the pacific for some observation.

Good doc here

I remember as a kid my uncle took us to the hanger in DUB and there was a 747 SP (Air India I think) in for repair and we got to go aboard.

great days.

BoatMad

The 747 still remains the only aircraft I feel utterly comfortable in , knowing it's virtually indestructible and all those engines


Twin engine wide bodies. Boring

Any I've sailed the Atlantic. Far better way to go

Blut2

That old American Airlines silver livery still looks fantastic. Really unusual looking compared to generic modern ones. Its a shame they discontinued it.

AndyBoBandy

I think it was just unpainted, polished aluminium on AA

must have saved them a fortune in paint!

smurfjed

The -400 has about a 20,000 kg higher MTOM than the -300, plus its a two crew glass cockpit aircraft rather than round dials with a flight engineer.

Last time that I jumpseated on a -SP, we landed on RWY 23 in LHR

Unfortunately this is the future for most Classic B747's

smurfjed

must have saved them a fortune in paint!

and fuel...

cowboyBuilder

smurfjed wrote: »

and fuel...

Really, it would add up to that much weight ?

I suppose it would when you add it all up..

jimbis

Paint on a 747 is around the 500kg mark as far as I know.

smurfjed

http://www.boeing.com/commercial/aeromagazine/aero_05/textonly/fo01txt.html

This explains why airlines don't strip their aircraft.

Davidth88

AndyBoBandy wrote: »

Remember the 747SP ?

It was a shortened version of the original 747-100 designed for uber long haul, 45 were built (primarily for Middle East customers), and they just look so adorable.

If my addled memory serves me right SAA ( South African ) had some SPs because they had to fly the long way from London -> Capetown , they were not allowed to overfly any African countries at the time.

PanAm flew them of course, not sure on what route but they appeared at LHR all the time.

AndyBoBandy

And here is one;

Irish Steve

The sound track has been deleted in recent times, but for a special landing of a 747sp, have a look at this video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rK1zLd2EwK0

They had to work hard to get the aircraft into this runway, everything about the margins was tight, and they for sure planted it firmly at the beginning of the runway, the flex of the wings as they unloaded was "interesting" to watch.

Have to admit that despite its reputation, of the wide body jets, the nicest from a passenger point of view was the DC10, as it was pressurised lower, so more comfortable on a long flight. One of these days, maybe I will get to travel on a 380 to see what the latest large aircraft is like, my brother's been to Aus on them a couple of times, and has been happy with the experience. My most recent long haul was a 340 to Namibia from Gatwick, and that was not a bad flight, but we weren't in economy, so its not a fair comparison to the rest.

The King of Dalriada

Was lucky enough to get the chance to fly the 747 classic for a few years. Great aircraft. Handled like a big Seneca!

Irish Steve

The King of Dalriada wrote: »

Was lucky enough to get the chance to fly the 747 classic for a few years. Great aircraft. Handled like a big Seneca!

I never got to fly the real thing, Saddam messed up airline recruitment at just the wrong time for me, but did over 50 hours in the classic and 400 sims, pussy cat to fly, and yes, very much a big Seneca, handled beautifully.

One visit, the instructor set it up at 20 miles from Kai Tak (long time ago) and then talked a non pilot (my wife) through flying the rest of the approach and landing, while I did the P2 stuff, which worked out fine. OK, light aircraft, CAVOK, no wind, but it was still impressive to see how he talked her through it, and that it came together with no dramas, even though it was the difficult end. Very different story with some wind, but that's for another day

cowboyBuilder

AndyBoBandy wrote: »

And here is one;

Lovely pic !!

Is that a 707 in the background ?

Actually for great pics check out shannon airport in the 1980s on Airliners.net ... awesome stuff..

smurfjed

Yep, cargo B707 operated by TMA of Lebanon...

Neilw

I flew on one this month for the first time in over 20 years, really is a nice place to be. I was lucky to get the upstairs cabin with Lufthansa.

Bebop

Blut2 wrote: »

That old American Airlines silver livery still looks fantastic. Really unusual looking compared to generic modern ones. Its a shame they discontinued it.

I remember reading somewhere that Airbus do not offer the polished bare metal finish, apparently they use a high-tech anti corrosion treatment that stains the alloy skin, AA had to adopt a different livery for their Airbus aircraft

Cookiemunster

Bebop wrote: »

I remember reading somewhere that Airbus do not offer the polished bare metal finish, apparently they use a high-tech anti corrosion treatment that stains the alloy skin, AA had to adopt a different livery for their Airbus aircraft

AAs new livery is fleet wide, not just Airbus aircraft.

BuffyBot

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-07/boeing-quarterly-airplane-deliveries-slip-as-747-767-decline

Well, another four will be made anyway..

smurfjed

Unfortunately it doesn't say if they are Freighters or VIP aircraft.

de biz

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/boeing-adds-four-747-8fs-to-backlog-423996/