Aintree Grand National

denmania

Any idea if Paddy are non runner no bet and 5 places in shops? I know they are online.

Gavin "shels"

Should be I'd imagine.

May as well use this as the Grand National thread! Anyone have any fancies as of yet?

Some good break downs of trends here:
http://grand-national.betting-directory.com/trends.php

JJs Left Hand

The only trend you need to concern yourself with is that Many Clouds won it last year and he'll win it again this year

FortuneChip

JJs Left Hand wrote: »

The only trend you need to concern yourself with is that Many Clouds won it last year and he'll win it again this year

Hmm, first half of your story checks out - happy to agree with the second.

He was effortless last time out at Kelso against two horses that at the time I thought might be decent, Unioniste & Sausalito Sunrise.

I like Conti's jumping, but trip has to be an issue.

So yeah, Many Clouds

posturingpat

Get the darts out.

Nulty

Very hard to oppose Many Clouds. Hes the epitome of a Grand National horse.

Would love to know if Double Seven will make it. Betfair says no.

Struggling to find anything better than Many Clouds. Will wait for the day I think

cson

If it comes up soft-ish I'd fancy Morning Assembly to place.

4068ac1elhodqr

'Victor has 6pl, NRNB, 1/4.

May stick some of these wildcards on the end of mixed e/w accum combos:
Ballycasey x61
Black Thunder x51
Just A Par x34

cson

Hayden Black Pail wrote: »

'Victor has 6pl, NRNB, 1/4.

May stick some of these wildcards on the end of mixed e/w accum combos:
Ballycasey x61
Black Thunder x51
Just A Par x34

Fair play, lots of places would go to 1/5 for it with the extra place.

mountgomery burns

When you think about it lads, 6 places in a race with 40 horses in it is cat.

matthew8

mountgomery burns wrote: »

When you think about it lads, 6 places in a race with 40 horses in it is cat.

No it's not, even 1/4 odds 4 places in a 40 runner race are punter favourable terms. There could be 1000 runners and 1/4 odds 4 places would still be punter favourable terms, let alone 1/4 odds 6 places.

cruais

I went a small eachway on highland lodge 50/1.

Nulty

I dont understand mathew8. Can uou explain?

matthew8

Nulty wrote: »

I dont understand mathew8. Can uou explain?

Imagine a race with 1000 runners, all with the same chance of 1 in 1000, and hence odds of 999/1. At 1/4 the odds a place, the place odds are 999/4, 250.75 in decimal form, which translates to a .3988% chance of placing. Multiply by the 1000 runners, and this gives a 398.8% place book, and given there are 4 places on offer this is favourable to the punter. If the horses don't all have the same chance in this 1000 runner race, the place book will go even lower than 398.8% as markets that are more spread out are better for each way betting (think about the way a maiden with an odds on favourite and several no hopers is a good race to have an each way bet in).

cson

I'd have to agree with Nulty here; fag packet maths;

40 Runners/4 Places = 15% Chance
8 Runners / 3 Places = 38% Chance
16 Runners / 4 Places = 25% Chance
5 Runners / 2 Places = 40% Chance

That's with an even chance for each runner etc - I'm certain someone with a basic grasp of mathematical probabilities would be able to fine tune that a lot more.

That being said; I'd be surprised if the bookmakers turn a profit on this race if any of the top 10 in the betting win it/ or indeed a punter favourite jockey like Ruby (AP before he retired) wins it.

mountgomery burns

cson wrote: »

I'd have to agree with Nulty here; fag packet maths;

40 Runners/4 Places = 15% Chance
8 Runners / 3 Places = 38% Chance
16 Runners / 4 Places = 25% Chance
5 Runners / 2 Places = 40% Chance

That's with an even chance for each runner etc - I'm certain someone with a basic grasp of mathematical probabilities would be able to fine tune that a lot more.

That being said; I'd be surprised if the bookmakers turn a profit on this race if any of the top 10 in the betting win it/ or indeed a punter favourite jockey like Ruby (AP before he retired) wins it.

And APs horse and to a lesser extent Rubys have been heavily punted for the last number of years and yet have only managed a win each.

How much did they make off Shutthefrontdoor last year I wonder?

carman2011

cson wrote: »

I'd have to agree with Nulty here; fag packet maths;

40 Runners/4 Places = 15% Chance
8 Runners / 3 Places = 38% Chance
16 Runners / 4 Places = 25% Chance
5 Runners / 2 Places = 40% Chance

That's with an even chance for each runner etc - I'm certain someone with a basic grasp of mathematical probabilities would be able to fine tune that a lot more.

That being said; I'd be surprised if the bookmakers turn a profit on this race if any of the top 10 in the betting win it/ or indeed a punter favourite jockey like Ruby (AP before he retired) wins it.

thats not taking into account the fact that in a 40 runner field horses will be a much higher price to place than in an 8 runner field,
matthews analysis is more correct.....and 6 places is actually huge value

cson

mountgomery burns wrote: »

And APs horse and to a lesser extent Rubys have been heavily punted for the last number of years and yet have only managed a win each.

How much did they make off Shutthefrontdoor last year I wonder?

Feck all! Most we're paying 5/6 places and he finished 5th!

I don't have the time to go back through it but I'd imagine Ruby/AP have frequently finished in the first 5/6 in that time.

carman2011 wrote: »

thats not taking into account the fact that in a 40 runner field horses will be a much higher price to place than in an 8 runner field,
matthews analysis is more correct.....and 6 places is actually huge value

Oh I agree - as I titled it; its fag packet maths.

pugw

The last samurai was impressive the last day! Is 12s a bit tight though? Finding it hard to zero in on anything this year probably give the Druids nephew another go and maybe a small bet on the exchange on carlingford lough

Hulk Hands

6 places is insane value, that place book will only add up to around 400% if theyre lucky. Two great bad e/w events next week, the masters and the GN. E/W doubles between the two are the type of thing most bookies would like to take you out the back and put a bullet in your head for

Hulk Hands

cson wrote: »

I'd have to agree with Nulty here; fag packet maths;

40 Runners/4 Places = 15% Chance
8 Runners / 3 Places = 38% Chance
16 Runners / 4 Places = 25% Chance
5 Runners / 2 Places = 40% Chance

That's with an even chance for each runner etc - I'm certain someone with a basic grasp of mathematical probabilities would be able to fine tune that a lot more.

10% chance i'd assume you meant? The basic idea using Matthews example is if every horse is 39/1, then you get 39/4=9.75/1 on the place, so you'd lose slightly on 40 runners 4 places in a basic 100% book.

5 places gets you 9.75/1 on a 7/1 shot, with bookmakers losing 14% or so on the place side.

6 is 9.75/1 on a 5.7/1 shot.

Odds fluctuate up and down obviously and they wont offer a 100% win book but the 6 places remains great value with any horse theyve competitively priced

JJs Left Hand

Many Clouds
Holywell
The Last Samuri
Morning Assembly

There's the shortlist. Have Clouds already backed and will back the other 3. Throw them into a tricast combination as well.

longshotvalue

The race could really suit Boston Bob. Right kind of animal for the job as well, near Grade 1 horse that likes good ground and should stay up the long run in for sure..

cson

aidankkk wrote: »

The race could really suit Boston Bob. Right kind of animal for the job as well, near Grade 1 horse that likes good ground and should stay up the long run in for sure..

Would his jumping concern you though? I know they don't go fast but it is a stern test of jumping.

Hulk Hands wrote: »

10% chance i'd assume you meant?

Actually meant 6/40 = 15% (Being the 6 places).

But overall - yeah 6 places is big value in a handicap like that. Will be interesting to see if BetVictor are worst price on everything as a result. Would doubt it as the industry probably see this as a loser to winner type race (lose short term and hope to retain ~10% of transient punters which would make it a winner).

cson

JJs Left Hand wrote: »

Many Clouds
Holywell
The Last Samuri
Morning Assembly

There's the shortlist. Have Clouds already backed and will back the other 3. Throw them into a tricast combination as well.

Would think Holywell was primed for that Cheltenham race; they weren't expecting something to beat him there. Would be wary for that reason.

JJs Left Hand

It'll be nearly 4 weeks on so wouldn't worry me. Won the novice race at Aintree by half the track after winning the handicap in 2014.

The whole complexion of this race has changed with the compressed weights and the easier fences. The race is just a long distance handicap now with a different type of fence where the highest rated horses will come to the fore.

Horses like Many Clouds, Holywell and Silviniaco Conti are Grade 1 animals. I'd have serious concerns about the latters stamina so happy to go with the former pair. Morning Assembly still has improvement in him over fences and personally think he's a mid 150s horse. Think he'll stay but unless these types of fences light him up altogether I don't see him turning the form around with Holywell. Will still have a small play.

Have been very impressed with The Last Samuri in his last 2 runs. Decent ground, the increased distance and his jumping all positives. Curious to know will Bailey throw the hood or another type of headgear on. McCain did and he improved for it but the stable switch has exposed that McCain is stone useless so he might not need it anymore.

Clouds has been there and done it. Top weight not a concern since he won it last year carrying 11 9. If you've seen the jockey cam video released this week you'll see his ears pricked at every fence. He ****ing loved it. Still only 9 and this year he's been trained to the day for this race whereas last year the Gold Cup was the main target.

Can't wait for it.

Stacksey

Ucello Conti to win the National @ 33's and Jacque Ricoh to be hailed as a hero after for his ride in the THYESTES(but obviously not riding the horse in the national)

PressRun

What about Cause of Causes? Would he be worth a few quid? Finished 7th/8th last year, if I remember correctly.

Backed Soll last year on advice, but I'm not sure he even finished the race!

4068ac1elhodqr

Whilst the 6pl with Victor is splendiferous,
may be worth considering that only 19 horses finished the race out of the field of 39 last year.

Therefore what about opting for Faller Insurance markets closer to the big day?
Reduced places/prices. An umbrella in the rain as such.

on the weather... Fri+Sat 9th (long-range forecast):
20% chance of rain from NW, 11oC, cloudy, mostly drying ground.

the groutch

Can't imagine any bookies being in a hurry to offer fallers insurance in the GN

4068ac1elhodqr

Indeed few and far between.
But there may be a few with Faller Insurance on the day itself, or maybe night just before. Reduced price/places of course.

If 50% of the field don't make it, having e.g. FI at only 4pl in real terms may be worth consideration.

Hulk Hands

Hayden Black Pail wrote: »

'Victor has 6pl, NRNB, 1/4.

May stick some of these wildcards on the end of mixed e/w accum combos:
Ballycasey x61
Black Thunder x51
Just A Par x34

You get away with this nonsense on the gambling forum, please dont pollute this place with it. It's an e/w multiple. Odds are either fractions - 33/1, or decimals - 34.0

handsfree2

Surely any shortlist includes saint are

Tenorio

My five to fill first five places together with my reasoning(I use the word loosely)

Wonderful Charm
Nicholls stated clealy before season began that this horse would have GN as sole objective -horse has to have good ground and goes best fresh.Ran a decent second on Dec 11 and was entered for Grimthorpe but pulled out because of soft ground.Taken to Wincanton on April first for a racecourse gallop and Sam TD in his Saturday RP column expressed delight wiith horses performance and confirmed as his GN mount.Horse correctly priced by bookies in my opinion throughout winter but generous odds available on BF and I have backed at three-figure prices (a tenner here,a tenner there)to win a five-figure sum. Handicapper awarded 11-3 and Nicholls observed that WC was a" high-class horse"and " and did not complain-in line with his rating in any event. I acknowledge negatives in relation to horses claims,no need to point them out-a calculated acceptance of risk on my part.Soft ground on the day would be a disaster and I have provided for this possibility by having a decent bet on Goonyella at 33/1

Just a Par
Great victory at Sandown end of last season,Nicholls confirmed GN as sole objective at start of season ,remarking horse " was all about stamina".Two moderate runs early in season,ran OK when second at Exeter on prep run.Will be ridden by Sean Bowen,a great talent,in my opinion,gets on like a house on fire with horse.I acknowledge holes in this horses form but feel that in the later stages of race his stamina will kick in and he may have enough in hand to catch any horse ahead of him

Many Clouds
First in to my ante-post book at 20/1,not touched since-claims obvious


Triolo D,Alene
Nicky stated at start of season would be aimed at GN-has oserved that he proved stamina when winning Hennessy and ability to handle track/fences when winning Topham.Fairly treated by handicapper in my opinion and could run big race.Showed great zest when winning on seasonal appearance,a shade disappointing in next race,but not a tremor in market after and Nicky did not seem concerned.Jeremiah McGrath rides

Hadrians Choice
Returned from injury to run OK race .Proven in large field handicaps and could have a few pound s in hand on his best form.Nicky has observed that his jumping technique in earlier years was not up to required GN standard but that the changes to fences and improvements in his jumping technique justified aiming horse at GN.

The same quality bottle of wine will be opened in Tenorio Towers on the Saturday night win,lose or draw.Best of luck to all players

average_runner

Usually go with this formula:

Horse under 11 in weights
Solid jumper
Has the stamina
Runs near the front
Skipped Cheltenham
And not a horse that previously ran the national unless they won it or are hedge hunter:)

Usually means I have 3 horses left, backed them eac way.

Had the winner around 10 times out of the last 15 years.

Won't be backing Many clouds this year.

Bangor Billy

That weight stat is out of date. If you only back horses carrying less than 11st you would have missed 5 of the last 7 winners.

4068ac1elhodqr

If anyone is a bit superstitious, perhaps this (from the oracle) may be worth a consideration for the big day:
image link
Will reveal after x34 thanks, to gauge if there's enough interest in it...

Peintre Celebre

Hayden Black Pail wrote: »

If anyone is a bit superstitious, perhaps this (from the oracle) may be worth a consideration for the big day:
image link
Will reveal after x34 thanks, to gauge if there's enough interest in it...

What are you talking about?

4068ac1elhodqr

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

What are you talking about?

Look at the image, there's a prediction for the winner of the GN.

BumperD

Hayden Black Pail wrote: »

Look at the image, there's a prediction for the winner of the GN.

You cannot be serious? Is the article from the National Enquirer? It starts off talking about the moon phase. I have my own ways of trying to find a winner but surely reading horiscopes from the tabloids is a step to far.

BumperD

Bangor Billy wrote: »

That weight stat is out of date. If you only back horses carrying less than 11st you would have missed 5 of the last 7 winners.

Very true. Weights seriously compressed last few yrs. There are none running out of the handicap anymore (before, you might have 10) - means that those at the foot of the wights, even if they have 20lbs in hand, won't get into the race.

4068ac1elhodqr

BumperD wrote: »

You cannot be serious?.

Just another variable to consider in this lottery event, will update after the event. The rest of April's forecast (on the above linked image) seems very spot on anyway...

BumperD

No.

Gregk961

Hayden Black Pail wrote: »

If anyone is a bit superstitious, perhaps this (from the oracle) may be worth a consideration for the big day:
image link
Will reveal after x34 thanks, to gauge if there's enough interest in it...

Tumbleweed

Bangor Billy

Hayden Black Pail wrote: »

Just another variable to consider in this lottery event, will update after the event. The rest of April's forecast (on the above linked image) seems very spot on anyway...

Surely you will be too busy spending your winnings to update on here.

4068ac1elhodqr

Bangor Billy wrote: »

Surely you will be too busy spending your winnings to update on here.

Perhaps, perhaps, just heading over at B&Q to look at their wheelbarrows now

Hulk Hands

This is a new low for this place

convert

Yet again, can you *please* report posts if you have an issue rather than taking matters into your own hands.

ON ZEE BRIDLE

Lads which one of the Cheltenham winners do you think will run a stinker at Aintree?

posturingpat

ON ZEE BRIDLE wrote: »

Lads which one of the Cheltenham winners do you think will run a stinker at Aintree?

On the Fringe, Nina gave him a serious ride to get him up and he's definitely not as good as he was last year and a week less to recover.

longshotvalue

ON ZEE BRIDLE wrote: »

Lads which one of the Cheltenham winners do you think will run a stinker at Aintree?

I have to admit im usually the first one boading that train but im not sure this year, some of them have way too much in hand. Annie might be beatable on a flat track and that race could spring a surprise. Thistlecrack , Vautour, Douvan et all wil be very hard to beat. On the Fringe might struggle , blacklion wont win.

There looks likely to be some very small fields.