Milan - San Remo 2016

TheBlaaMan

Here we go then, the first of five fantastic weekends in the cycling world of the classics/monuments. Paris-Nice and Tirenno-Adriatico have been used to tune the legs and all the other systems and we are about to see some brilliant racing, I think. The race is on Saturday, not Sunday, so get your spin in early and you're set for the afternoon.

Sagan has surely got to break his monument cherry over the coming weeks but, regardless it will be great, mark my words...... So lock up the kids, give the significant other your credit card to get busy in town, stock up on snacks and Belgian beer and hog that telly.

MSR is on a very traditional parcour, nothing unusual to worry about and it is very unlikely to be anything other than a race decided after the Poggio - so far, so normal, but it will still be one to win so there is going to be serious contest at the end. GCN have a good preview of the contenders here, so no need to repeat this.

there are so many great names in even this brief list that is hard to pick one. I'd love to see Sagan take it in the rainbow stripes and if not, Cancellara to do it as a great bookend to his time in this race

Start list is here, http://www.steephill.tv/classics/milan-san-remo/#rosters Sam Bennett starts for Bora Argon but Shane Archbold looks to be carrying their #1 tabard and possibly protected status (......?)

Start time: Sat Mar 9:10 AM GMT
Earliest live video: 12:30 PM GMT
Approximate finish: 4:15 PM GMT

The weather is forecast to be cold and clear with no rain (and let's hope no snow over the Turchino Pass)

Five weekends of great classics begin...........

MPFGLB

The first monument of the year ...and it s the long one..The Primavera to celebrate Saint Joseph on the 19th March (and my birthday)

Scene setter

https://twitter.com/faustocoppi60/status/710535456149078017

Route :
https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x3xwhb8_milano-sanremo-2016-planimetria_sport"]https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x3xwhb8_milano-sanremo-2016-planimetria_sport"]https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x3xwhb8_milano-sanremo-2016-planimetria_sport

Start list
http://www.procyclingstats.com/race.php?id=163615&c=3

The Contenders
https://twitter.com/ProCyclingStats/status/710481731699212288

Written Previews
http://cyclingbetting.co.uk/milan-san-remo-2016

http://www.marmeladrome.co.uk/preview-msr-2016/

Podcast Previews
http://velohuman.com/podcast/the-recon-ride-podcast-milano-sanremo-2016/

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/milan-san-remo-race-preview-with-cancellara-and-cavendish-podcast/

So many questions so little rime (left)
Will EBH lead for Dimension Data or is Cavendish down playing his form ?
Can Kristoff win without Paolini ?
Will Nibali attack on the Cipressa (and win spurred on by a legal induced rage) ?
Will Geraint Thomas attack on the Poggio ?
Will Sagan be second ?
Will Greg Van Avermaat be second ?
Will a very strong Cancelera finish on the podium again ?
Will Kwiatkowski gain hia first win at SKY (and first monument for SKY) ?
Will Bouhanni punch his way to victory ?
Will it all end in a bunch sprint or a reduced group of 4/5 riders ?
How will Sam Bennett fare ?
Will Michael Matthews walk it ?
And what of Valverde...the man for every podium ?

MPFGLB

I propose (if you want) that we put forward your 3 podium selections

And I keep a running tally of points for MSR, RVV, PR & the 3 Ardennes races...

5 - 1st
3 - 2nd
1 - 3rd

I will not score any entries after 11am on the day of the race


My selection is

1 - Cancellera
2- GVA
3- Kwaitatoski

MPFGLB

Weepsie wrote: »

I'm working all day, but have access to computer. Where'd be best for live updates, rolling text commentary?

Go to cyclingfans.com on the day and you will get video & rolling commentary links

Darkglasses

Merged

Darkglasses

MPFGLB wrote: »

I propose (if you want) that we put forward your 3 podium selections

And I keep a running tally of points for MSR, RVV, PR & the 3 Ardennes races...

3 - 1st
2 - 2nd
1 - 3rd

Cool idea!

1st - Peter Sagan
2nd - Alexander Kristoff
3rd - Michael Matthews

SuperSean

1st - Cancellara
2nd - Sagan
3rd - Kristoff

Can't wait for this

Raam

Matthews for the win.

JK.BMC

1st Navardauskas
2nd Matthews
3rd Viviani

Fascinating race as always.
My selection has been knocking on the door for years in this type of race; under the radar a bit, like the World RR last year.

Taxuser1

MPFGLB wrote: »

The first monument of the year ...and it s the long one..The Primavera to celebrate Saint Joseph on the 19th March (and my birthday)

Scene setter

https://twitter.com/faustocoppi60/status/710535456149078017

Route :
https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x3xwhb8_milano-sanremo-2016-planimetria_sport"]https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x3xwhb8_milano-sanremo-2016-planimetria_sport"]https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x3xwhb8_milano-sanremo-2016-planimetria_sport

Start list
http://www.procyclingstats.com/race.php?id=163615&c=3

The Contenders
https://twitter.com/ProCyclingStats/status/710481731699212288

Written Previews
http://cyclingbetting.co.uk/milan-san-remo-2016

http://www.marmeladrome.co.uk/preview-msr-2016/

Podcast Previews
http://velohuman.com/podcast/the-recon-ride-podcast-milano-sanremo-2016/

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/milan-san-remo-race-preview-with-cancellara-and-cavendish-podcast/

So many questions so little rime (left)
Will EBH lead for Dimension Data or is Cavendish down playing his form ?
Can Kristoff win without Paolini ?
Will Nibali attack on the Cipressa (and win spurred on by a legal induced rage) ?
Will Geraint Thomas attack on the Poggio ?
Will Sagan be second ?
Will Greg Van Avermaat be second ?
Will a very strong Cancelera finish on the podium again ?
Will Kwiatkowski gain hia first win at SKY (and first monument for SKY) ?
Will Bouhanni punch his way to victory ?
Will it all end in a bunch sprint or a reduced group of 4/5 riders ?
How will Sam Bennett fare ?
Will Michael Matthews walk it ?
And what of Valverde...the man for every podium ?

i've a blog on some of the best bets here also

http://wheelie1977.blog.com/

Taxuser1

My three selections

Matthews
Cancellara
Swift

RobFowl

Recall the year Cav won he spent TA swinging or pretending to at the back. Sam the man for the win 😎

Decuc500

1. Matthews
2. Bouhanni
3. Boasson Hagen

koutoubia

1st Gavira
2nd Sagan
3rd Van Av.

Leroy42

One of the most boring races on the calender. 291k and at best the first 250 are dull. Maybe something happens on Cipressa but usually the only excitement is on the Poggio.

So basically tune in for the last 30 minutes. Dull as dishwater up to that.

It is only considered a big race because of the history, nobody in their right minds would devise such a race nowadays.

Taxuser1

I'll give anyone 100/1 for Gaviria - this lad is not Eddy Merckx who himself won his first attempt at a Monument, also MSR and also 21.

Look how hard Sagan has found it.

Taxuser1

I'll give anyone 100/1 for Gaviria - this lad is not Eddy Merckx who himself won his first attempt at a Monument, also MSR and also 21.

Look how hard Sagan has found it.

Eamonnator

1) Sagan.
2) Van Avermaet.
3) Kristoff.

koutoubia

I picked Gavira because of he can get get to the finishing straight with a group of 'Big Names' he has the ability to outsprint everyone. There will be so much marking going on that he could be dropped by his team at 250mtrs to go and Etixx badly need a win!

MPFGLB

PLEASE NOTE : You get the points whatever order or place your selection finishes in ..so if you put Ben Swift as 3rd and he wins you get the points for 1st ....points are for the podium not the exact prediction of the podium...this makes it a bit easier to score points

Changed the points scoring so the differential between 1st , 2nd & 3rd is greater to reflect the prestige of predicting a winner and counter the any place on the podium selection

5 = 1st
3= 2nd
1= 3rd


However if you have the exact position on the podium you get a bonus score of 1 point
So if you predict Ben Swift to come 3rd and he does you get 1 + 1 point
If you predict him to come second and he comes 3rd you get 1 point

So if you predict all 3 positions on the podium correctly you can score 12 points...This means that there will be a range of scores

I better stop or I will make it too complicated

Taxuser1

MPFGLB wrote: »

PLEASE NOTE : You get the points whatever order or place your selection finishes in ..so if you put Ben Swift as 3rd and he wins you get the points for 1st ....points are for the podium not the exact prediction of the podium...this makes it a bit easier to score points

Changed the points scoring so the differential between 1st , 2nd & 3rd is greater to reflect the prestige of predicting a winner and counter the any place on the podium selection

5 = 1st
3= 2nd
1= 3rd


However if you have the exact position on the podium you get a bonus score of 1 point
So if you predict Ben Swift to come 3rd and he does you get 1 + 1 point
If you predict him to come second and he comes 3rd you get 1 point

I better stop or I will make it too complicated

i can further complicate it for you :-) just base it on their betting odds with Paddy Power

If Swift wins - 40/1 - 40 points, if he's 3rd, a quarter odds 10 points.

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/cycling/milan---san-remo?ev_oc_grp_ids=45507

MPFGLB

No I haven;t time to do all of that ...sorry

But you can if you want ..tell people what they could have won !!!

Just something simple for me to keep an interest over the 5 races

Taxuser1

mods would shift this to a betting forum and I don't have the time either !

Have to say, something is pushing me towards Swift tomorrow, think he's looking a bit better than last year going on Paris Nice but I do think SKY tactics have never suited this race.

Cancellara to blitz the Poggio tomorrow and the descent - it'll be like old times waiting for him to move. He tried every year bar 2014, this time he looks a lot more powerful if his TTs are anything to go by. I think it makes Kristoff and the sprinters very vulnerable. Possibly a little group offers Sagan's best chance of a win yet. Still think Matthews wins though

MPFGLB

Maybe its my constant mention of Swift in the scoring examples ...subliminal messages

SKY team very strong but they still have not figured out back at HQ how to get the marginal gains out of classics imo

I think it will be a small group away at the end...hence my selection

Taxuser1

MPFGLB wrote: »

Maybe its my constant mention of Swift in the scoring examples ...subliminal messages

SKY team very strong but they still have not figured out back at HQ how to get the marginal gains out of classics imo

I think it will be a small group away at the end...hence my selection

I believe I mentioned Swift first :-)

nialljf

no mention yet of Stybar. is this not a parcours that suits him, or will he be working for Gaviria?

MPFGLB

nialljf wrote: »

no mention yet of Stybar. is this not a parcours that suits him, or will he be working for Gaviria?

I guess there are quite a few potential winners not everyone gets a mention

He may find it hard to get away on the poggio ...looked good at Strade Bianche but Cancelera was stronger in the end

And then there is the possibility that EQS will work for GAV if they forsee a spriint finish

Pudsy33

Can't see Gaviria making it with the favourites to be honest, wouldn't have him as a favourite myself. Matthews is the prime pick as far as I'm concerned, can handle the climbs as good as any and out sprint the competition. GVA is in great form too and sprinting well, interesting to see how he gets on.

Interested to see how Bennett gets on, he did well enough last year but has been off colour do far this season. Hope he makes an appearance anyway to give us something to cheer.

MPFGLB

Pudsy33 wrote: »

Can't see Gaviria making it with the favourites to be honest, wouldn't have him as a favourite myself. Matthews is the prime pick as far as I'm concerned, can handle the climbs as good as any and out sprint the competition. GVA is in great form too and sprinting well, interesting to see how he gets on.

Interested to see how Bennett gets on, he did well enough last year but has been off colour do far this season. Hope he makes an appearance anyway to give us something to cheer.

So is your selection

Matthews
GVA
Bennett

??

Pudsy33

MPFGLB wrote: »

So is your selection

Matthews
GVA
Bennett

??

Nah, I'll go Bouhanni, Matthews, Kristoff for the craic

Bugsy2000

1. Van Avermaet
2. Vanmarcke
3. Cancellara

MPFGLB

Surprised no one has picked Kristoff in first place so far

With Matthews the one most have picked in first place , followed by Sagan

I have on reflection changed my picks and now gone for

1 - Cancellera
2- GVA
3- Kwaitatoski

as I believe it will be a breakaway and not a bunch sprint

harringtonp

Don'r suppose its on TG4, ITV4 or the new free to air Bike channel ?

dastardly00

I hoping Sagan finally does it, but he probably will finish second!

1. Sagan
2. Cancellara
3. GVA

sy

Sagan
Matthews
Kristoff

Think Cancellara and GVA might get away on Poggio as both riding very strongly at the moment but caught before the line. Sagan has to get his timing right.....eventually!!

MPFGLB

They are racing and we have a break

https://twitter.com/TeamDiData/status/711125042348826624

MPFGLB

First piece of drama (though not to do with riders or the weather)

https://twitter.com/inrng/status/711137365960613888

Dr. Bre

Ŵhats the chances of Sam today?

dastardly00

Thankfully there are no injuries being reported from the landslide.
Edit: Seemingly there have been injuries unfortunately.

Here's the official statement from RCS in relation to the detour:

Due to a landslide on the Milano-Sanremo original race course in between Genova Voltri and Arenzano, the Race Direction together with the Police Support Officer decided to divert the race onto the A10 highway, entering in Genova Voltri and exiting in Arenzano to rejoin the original course. This detour is now officially part of the race course.

Pudsy33

Dr. Bre wrote: »

Ŵhats the chances of Sam today?

He's not in the best of form, and we aren't even sure if he's the protected rider, but he did well last year so if it comes to a small group with him in it he has every shot.

MPFGLB

Pudsy33 wrote: »

He's not in the best of form, and we aren't even sure if he's the protected rider, but he did well last year so if it comes to a small group with him in it he has every shot.

Would it not have to be a bunch sprint (with him still there ) for him to have a chance ?

Not sure he has the strength to be in a small group with the likes of Cancellera , Sybar, GVA, EBH, Sagan etc...well not yet anyway....

Hope I am wrong though

griffin100

I stuck a €10 on Sparticus to win by 2 secs or more at 60/1. Worth a punt given his good form.

Pudsy33

MPFGLB wrote: »

Would it not have to be a bunch sprint (with him still there ) for him to have a chance ?

Not sure he has the strength to be in a small group with the likes of Cancellera , Sybar, GVA, EBH, Sagan etc...well not yet anyway....

Hope I am wrong though

Well I don't think he's fast enough in a pure bunch kick with all the world tour guys. Wishful thinking that he will make a reduced group though I agree.

Lusk_Doyle

Sagan to do a kelly down the poggio and tt to the finish.

MPFGLB

What is up with Kristoff hair / head

Strange look foe one so young

MPFGLB

Lusk_Doyle wrote: »

Sagan to do a kelly down the poggio and tt to the finish.

So I'll put you down for Sagan then ?

Lusk_Doyle

MPFGLB wrote: »

So I'll put you down for Sagan then ?

Oh no. Sure GVA will jump him at the finish anyway.

MPFGLB

Lusk_Doyle wrote: »

Oh no. Sure GVA will jump him at the finish anyway.

Ok You are going down as

1=Gav
2=Sagan


and no arguments

Darkglasses

Time to renew my eurosport player subscription

dastardly00

Just under 90km to go!
So another 60km before I switch the coverage on! :pac:

MPFGLB

dastardly00 wrote: »

Just under 90km to go!
So another 60km before I switch the coverage on! :pac:

Ok but you are missing the lovely views of the ligurian riviera