Cheltenham Festival Day 3 - St.Patricks Day Thursday 17th March

Clique

13:30 · JLT Novices' Chase (Grade 1) (Registered As The Golden Miller Novices' Chase) (Class 1) (5YO plus) 2m 4f

14:10 · Pertemps Network Final (Listed Handicap Hurdle) (Class 1) (5YO plus) 3m

14:50 · Ryanair Chase (Grade 1) (Registered As The Festival Trophy Chase) (Class 1) (5YO plus) 2m 5f

15:30 · Ryanair World Hurdle (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4YO plus) 3m

16:10 · Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate (Grade 3 Handicap Chase) (Class 1) (5YO plus) 2m 5f

16:50 · Trull House Stud Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2) (Registered As The Dawn Run Mares' Novices' Hurdle) (Class 1) (4YO plus) 2m 1f

17:30 · Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (Amateur Riders) (Class 2) (5YO plus) 3m 2f

I said

Is road to riches going for this or gold cup?

posturingpat

I said wrote: »

Is road to riches going for this or gold cup?

I'd say Gold Cup because Valseur Lido's going Ryanair.

mountgomery burns

C'mon Gigginstown, save my festival!!

closcriobh

After a wipeout today, surely Thistlecrack can be one of the bankers of the week to come good! Will back him in a single and treble him up with Vautour and Limini.

posturingpat

With the week I've had my confidence is dented big time. I had considered having my first ever 4 figure bet on a horse on Thistlecrack this past month or so but with how my confidence is I can't do it and I'm having less than half of that on. He's 11/8 at the minute but I'm gong to sit tight and try get 6/4. I honestly can't see him beat but as I've said the punting confidence isn't high.

Vautour is an absolute monster of an animal but couldn't be backing him. As much as he's a better horse than the others in the race by quite a bit the prep he's had surely closes the gap and not many horses not spot on for the day win at Cheltenham no matter what quality they possess.

beertons

Thoughts on Bloody Mary in the 16.50?

Gringo180

Johns Spirit 6/1

nehe milner skudder

Gringo180 wrote: »

Johns Spirit 6/1

good?

nehe milner skudder

I'm on salubrious

I said

beertons wrote: »

Thoughts on Bloody Mary in the 16.50?

E/w chance and causes of causes e/w for me.
Will decide in morning on thistlecrack and vautour got stung on UDS today and still can't figure out new to this towns run

Gringo180

nehe milner skudder wrote: »

good?

No value at all left in his price. He has came right down from 25/1 the last few weeks. Scandalous price now.

mickmackmcgoo

Each way double tomorrow for me . Lami serge and Cole harden.

racso1975

Anybody have opinions on bloody mary or three musketeers?

PressRun

nehe milner skudder wrote: »

I'm on salubrious

This one worth a few quid? Saw him at 18/1 on Paddy Power in from 25/1.

Lost a bit of money at Cheltenham last year, so I've been keeping my distance this year. Still tempted to stick a small bet on.

Wicklow Brave

If you're considering steaming into Thistlecrack, remember Yanworth on Trials Day v today. TC's race fell apart that day. A more unexposed type like Alpha des Obeaux or Aux Ptits Soins may be a safer alternative to steaming into TC a l Yorkhill today v YW. I'm not saying TC won't win and he might still be value even at odds against but keep this in mind when deciding who you're gonna punt.

sdoc13

Have Backed Garde le Victoire with skybet money back as free bet if it looses.

I think Tranquil de seuil is a serious price at 20s in the ryanair chase.

Couldnt back vatour if he is supposed not to be 100%. As today proved horses must be 100% and have things go right on the day to win at cheltenham. Intersting that Powers are best price Vatour and worst price Road to Riches.

Johns spirit would make my festival.

Have a decent bet on the Giant Bolster ew and have backed indian Castle at 20s ew 5 places with 365.

Waiting on Limni for a treble.

Wouldnt be surprised to see at least 2 of the shorties beaten tomorrow and wont be getting stuck in to any of them albeit I think Limni the strongest chance.

Will back 1 or 2 in the pertemps just not sure yet who. JPs two If in dout and Leave it at dawn look right contenders.

Mgoraf

I think Garde Le Victoire is a serious e/w bet to nothing at 4/1. He's beaten Bristol De Mai the 3 times they have met and Fox Norton who he beat last time ran a good race in the Arkle on Monday not far behind the very talented Sizing John.

sdoc13

sdoc13 wrote: »

Have Backed Garde le Victoire with skybet money back as free bet if it looses.

I think Tranquil de seuil is a serious price at 20s in the ryanair chase.

Couldnt back vatour if he is supposed not to be 100%. As today proved horses must be 100% and have things go right on the day to win at cheltenham. Intersting that Powers are best price Vatour and worst price Road to Riches.

Johns spirit would make my festival.

Have a decent bet on the Giant Bolster ew and have backed indian Castle at 20s ew 5 places with 365.

Waiting on Limni for a treble.

Wouldnt be surprised to see at least 2 of the shorties beaten tomorrow and wont be getting stuck in to any of them albeit I think Limni the strongest chance.

Will back 1 or 2 in the pertemps just not sure yet who. JPs two If in dout and Leave it at dawn look right contenders.

Have backed All hell let loose in the pertemps at 40/1 1pt ew. Serious line of form through Diamon King. Beaten 4l geting 6lbs. Diamong king was off 136 that day and won today off 149. Definately overpriced and with 5 places worth a shot

posturingpat

Giant Bolster goes for the Kim Muir I've already Cause of Causes covered but i'll have to have a go on GB too. Conditions will suit perfectly and they've booked young Finnie Maguire who's not the most widely known Amateur but is a talented kid and won't be fazed by the occasion. 139 is some mark if they've been playing with him.

kc71

Only started following these threads this Cheltenham but enjoying the genuine attempts to put people who have less knowledge of the sport on to value bets and reasoning (less so enjoying the after timing but hey ho).
A bit off topic maybe but does anyone know if David Casey writes a daily column or blog as I'd trust his opinion on how straight Vautour actually is. Also does anyone have a link or info on what Tony Mullins was saying specifically for final two days on preview nights (I saw onle report but never got past day2).

Josses Hill (assuming now that they know to ride him prominently) and Whisper EW each and double tomorrow for me.

Mad_Dave

1:30 Garde La Victoire win
2:10 Rathpatrick e/w
2:50 Al Ferof e/w
4:10 Empire of Dirt e/w
5:30 Doctor Harper win

Small treble vautour/limini/thistlecrack just for the fun.

Likely wait till the morning to put any money on, so if anyone has any thoughts on my selections ?

nehe milner skudder

PressRun wrote: »

This one worth a few quid? Saw him at 18/1 on Paddy Power in from 25/1.

Lost a bit of money at Cheltenham last year, so I've been keeping my distance this year. Still tempted to stick a small bet on.

think he is well handicapped and won at festival before. good yard. nice price. like young sean bowen as a jockey.

Shane732

Hoping the bookies have had their good day -

• Vautour
• Thistlecrack
• Limini
• Garde La Victorie

Various singles, doubles, trebles, fourfolds......

mountgomery burns

To me, Thistlecrack is as bompbroof as they come while having to jump around over 3 miles.

The form with Reve De Sivola is by a million miles the strongest form of any of these and on a line through At Fishers Cross (which again has to have soe leeway as he is a seriously flaky horse) has Alpha Des Obeaux well held.

Don't understand the Good ground concerns, he motored home at Aintree and was going to beat Alpha Des Obeaux well in my opinion.

Has the course form, would have 5 grade 1s on the bounce but for getting hampered. It's a weak race and hes a good horse. Anyone betting on any race should only bet what they can afford to lose, all I'm saying is I'm backing him with confidence and confidence that the price generous.

JP Liz V1

Outlander, Arpege Dalene, Josses Hill, Ballycasey and Robins Reef e/w

idnkph

With a few good favourites being beat so far and leaving me a bit light in the wallet in backing saphir de rhue tomorrow and giant bolster ew.

paddy no 11

Kicking the day off with GLV - the rot stops here!

gazza1

Pretty rotten day today tomorrow can only be better surely.

Had a decent chunk on Cole Harden ew. I think he could give Thistlecrack a real race tomorrow. Either way I just can't see him out of the frame.

Also had an ew on Josies Hill. Looks decent value and The giant Bolster in the last

GL2A

cruais

Have gone for a small ew treble

Bristol de mai
Missed approach
Johns spirit

Thoughts?

saywhatyousee

Bristol de mai 5/1
Missed approach 11/1
Road to riches w/o vautour 11/4
Thistlecrack 6/5
Stilleto 10/1
Tea in transvall w/o limini 17/2 e/w
Sambremont 16/1

Francie Barrett

Ok lads, no more dicking about, time to get winners on the board!

1:30 - The decision to switch Garde La Victoire from the Arkle to this race looks prescient after Douvan demolished the opposition on Monday. The French bred horses have a great record in this kind of race, so I am not surprised that they feature prominently in the betting. Think this is very close, with anything in the first 5 having a chance. Have to give GLV the nod at 4/1 however. It's unbeaten in 3 runs over fences, and has already beaten Bristol De Mai (who has admittedly gone onto good things after that defeat). The clincher for me is that this is also likely to be Johnson's best chance of a winner this festival, and I am sure in his first year of being Champion Jockey, he'll be eager to have at least one Cheltenham winner.

Chesty08

Could be a day for Nicholls tomorrow with the ground drying out more, I can see it favouring more of his horses

going in on a few e/w

Warriors Tale 20/1
Aux Ptits Sions 20/1
Vibrato Valtat 33/1
Mon Par rain 40/1


Vautour has become the Cheltenham banker! Be crazy seeing him go off at even money

A double with Limini there


Grade La Victoire & Cause of Cause e/w double!

ShaneU

4 seconds today, really losing confidence.

Bristol De Mai
If In Doubt E/W
Vautour
Aux Ptits Soins E/W
Fingal Bay E/W
Smart Talk E/W
Cause of Causes E/W

jimjamcos

Lads, tomorrow's the day for the big Win Treble. I know it's muggy but:

Vautour: Does Mullins really need to run a horse who's "only 90% fit" in a standard Gr1 race when he has another viable favourite? No. Does everything we know about the genius trainer hint at anything towards him being a risk-taker? No.

Vautour is 100% fit and he's running in tomorrow's race for the same reason Annie ran in World Hurdle two years ago, and numerous other examples. Ruby wants winners and Willie wants Ruby on every possible horse while Ricci follows whatever Willie wants. Ricci clearly wanted Vautour in Gold Cup but Ruby didn't and as a result neither did Mullins. In terms of form, Vautour is miles ahead of anything in race and any evens tomorrow morning will be a gift. Meade doesn't think trip suits RTR and I predict a similar type of honourable run to that of First Lieutenant against Cue Card few years back, VL, AF and Dynaste can't overturn King George form with Josses likewise from Supreme run, TDS and Smashing probably need soft to show best, while rest are handicappers.

Thistlecrack: Unbeaten this season and as stated would be 12months unbeaten but for unlucky run at Punchestown festival in a hot race last season. Has beaten nearest rivals and it'll take something extraordinary from an unexposed type like UPS to beat him. Ground is no issue, he settles, jumps, travels and stays. As long as jockey is awake, he wins.

Limini; Unbeaten mare, form of her maiden has worked out well. Mullins has a line on nearest rival Smart Talk from when she beat Morning Run over Christmas but they've been massively bullish about Limini. When asked about rest of week after Yorkhills win today, Mullins mentioned her straightaway even before the soon-to-run odds-on Un De Sceaux. If she jumps round, she wins.

If I can get anything near 8/1 about this treble in morning I'll be having a good bet!

nehe milner skudder

jimjamcos wrote: »

Lads, tomorrow's the day for the big Win Treble. I know it's muggy but:

Vautour: Does Mullins really need to run a horse who's "only 90% fit" in a standard Gr1 race when he has another viable favourite? No. Does everything we know about the genius trainer hint at anything towards him being a risk-taker? No.

Vautour is 100% fit and he's running in tomorrow's race for the same reason Annie ran in World Hurdle two years ago, and numerous other examples. Ruby wants winners and Willie wants Ruby on every possible horse while Ricci follows whatever Willie wants. Ricci clearly wanted Vautour in Gold Cup but Ruby didn't and as a result neither did Mullins. In terms of form, Vautour is miles ahead of anything in race and any evens tomorrow morning will be a gift. Meade doesn't think trip suits RTR and I predict a similar type of honourable run to that of First Lieutenant against Cue Card few years back, VL, AF and Dynaste can't overturn King George form with Josses likewise from Supreme run, TDS and Smashing probably need soft to show best, while rest are handicappers.

Thistlecrack: Unbeaten this season and as stated would be 12months unbeaten but for unlucky run at Punchestown festival in a hot race last season. Has beaten nearest rivals and it'll take something extraordinary from an unexposed type like UPS to beat him. Ground is no issue, he settles, jumps, travels and stays. As long as jockey is awake, he wins.

Limini; Unbeaten mare, form of her maiden has worked out well. Mullins has a line on nearest rival Smart Talk from when she beat Morning Run over Christmas but they've been massively bullish about Limini. When asked about rest of week after Yorkhills win today, Mullins mentioned her straightaway even before the soon-to-run odds-on Un De Sceaux. If she jumps round, she wins.

If I can get anything near 8/1 about this treble in morning I'll be having a good bet!

20/1 for new customers with pp

BorneTobyWilde

My picks EW
Outlander 4-1 1.30
Ruacana 50-1 2.10
Vibrato Valtat 40-1 2.50
Aux Ptits Soins 20-1 3.30
Tenor Nivernais 20-1 4.10
Awesome Rosie 40-1 4.50
Midnight Prayer 25-1 5.30

I expect all will win by 5 lengths.

rossom

1.30 Cheltenham

Black Hercules 6/1

This looks a wide open contest and I'm plumping for the 7 year old Black Hercules representing the all conquering Willie Mullins. 4th in the Champion Bumper 2 years ago and a decent novice hurdler who disappointed when favourite for the Albert Bartlett, Black Hercules should be 3-3 over fences but for a last fence fall on his final start when having the race sewn up. His previous defeat of Definitely Red now looks good with that rival subsequently splitting RSA winner Blaklion and 4 Miler runner up Native Gallery and in a wide open race I think he'll go well under Ruby Walsh. I'm not massively confident in a wide open affair but I think he should go close at an each way price.


2.10 Cheltenham

If In Doubt 11/1

I was really impressed with If In Doubt's win on his return to hurdles on his last start and, given that race has worked out well, I think the 6lb rise leaves Philip Hobbs' inmate still on a good mark of 146. Having shown some strong form over hurdles in defeat behind Saphir De Rheu and stablemate Fingal Bay in handicaps back in early 2014, If In Doubt finished what was meant to be his last start over hurdles with a credible 9th in this contest to end that season off a mark of 140. He then embarked upon a 'failed' chasing campaign whereby, although he showed some good form and nearly snatched 3rd in last years RSA, it was purely his engine that got him to run with credit as he was always an awful jumper of a fence. It wasn't until December last year that Hobbs ditched chasing plans and If In Doubt was very impressive when returned to hurdles on Stephen's Day with success at Wincanton. Held up in last, despite having an awful lot to do heading to 2 out it seems Tom O'Brien was confident he had a lot of horse under him as he perfectly judged the ride to win going away by over 2L. That race looks very strong form with the 3rd, 5th & 6th winnning next time out and 6lb rise still leaves him ahead of the handicapper in my eyes. With champion jockey Dickie Johnson on board, I can see him weaving through the field late on this 8 year old and I'm confident he can get him home in front.


2.50 Cheltenham

Vautour 5/6

I would have backed Vautour had he run in the Gold Cup and he looks pretty much home and hosed in my book. Having put in one of the most breathtaking performances to land last years JLT, Vautour hasn't done a whole lot wrong this season either and was only mown down very late on by Cue Card in the King George and I think he'll definitely appreciate the return to a left handed track and Cheltenham. Last year’s Gold Cup 3rd Road To Riches is probably the main threat on paper but I'd be very, very surprised if he's good enough to beat Vautour over this trip. I don't buy for one second that Vautour is only '90% fit' like Rich Ricci said as, if there was any issues, he just wouldn't be running. I really hope we see another performance of the magnitude of last year and I feel it's a case of how far as opposed to if.


3.30 Cheltenham

Thistlecrack 5/4

I'm absolutely shocked to see 5/4 available about Thistlecrack as if he was trained by a more fashionable yard he would be odds on and I think Colin Tizzard's 8 year old is an absolute banker. In 3 starts this year, Thistlecrack has absolutely blown away the opposition and I don't think anything in this field comes close to him. The yard have already though about going straight for the Gold Cup as a novice chaser next year given how highly they rate him and I will be sat there gobsmacked if he doesn't win this impressively.


4.10 Cheltenham

Niceonefrankie 20/1

Jonjo O'Neill looks to have plotted up John's Spirit much like Holywell was on Tuesday but, although he's won 3 times at Cheltenham they've all been on the old course and his form on the new course isn't nearly as impressive. At 6/1 if he wins then fair play but I'm siding with Niceonefrankie who represents the Venetia Williams yard who have won this race 3 times and had 5 places from just 16 runners and who I think can go very well here. An incredibly impressive winner over C+D off just a 3lb lower mark in December 2014, Niceonefrankie has run just 3 times since and he certainly bounced back to a good level of form on his latest start when a battling second to Taquin De Seuil who looked absolutely thrown in off his mark. The 3rd home Cogry is a good yardstick to be measured off and I think that outing last month will have put this 10 year old spot on for this. The excellent Charlie Deutsch takes an invaluable 5lb off and if on a going day I think Niceonfrankie can take things up a good way from home and prove very difficult to peg back.


4.50 Cheltenham

Smart Talk 7/1

Limini has looked a very smart prospect to hurdles for Willie Mullins and it will be a surprise if she is beaten but Brian Ellison's Smart Talk has achieved an awful lot on the racecourse and I think 7/1 for a horse rated 149 looks a huge price. A very progressive mare, Smart Talk comes here on the back of Grade 2 win at Doncaster where she ran out an impressive winner despite a horror mistake at the 3rd last where she beat more experienced mares. Back into novice company today, I just can't see her out of the first 3 and I can see her giving Limini a real race and I think she can come out on top.

5.30 Cheltenham

Upswing 9/1

Current favourite Doctor Harper looks to have been plotted up for this race by last years winning connections and I couldn't put anyone off backing him. I do, however, think that Jonjo O'Neill's Upswing looks ahead of the handicapper off a mark of 139 and I think he's primed to run a huge race. If taking aside his last run when pulled up in the Welsh National in treacherous conditions (Jonjo's yard were in poor form), then Upswing is a very progressive chaser and his 2nd at Cheltenham to Sausalito Sunrise back in November reading very well with the winner now rated 19lb higher. With course form in the book and with the excellent Derek O'Connor in the saddle, I'm more than happy to take on the less experienced chase Doctor Harper and I'll be surprised if Upswing doesn't fill one of the 5 places on offer.

dickenson famous5

Going for ew treble today outlander. Valseur lido. Upswing

HarshOstrich

Just a word of warning for backers of Richard Johnson and Philip Hobbs horses,they have had a horrible run of luck over the first 2 days , Johnson in particular with a couple of falls and Hobbs horses are not performing to there best so far.
I went for Bristol de mai in the first, yes he was beaten by GLV on his chasing and seasonal debut but he probably needed it and is now a really good jumper, GLV was quite sticky at his jumps the last day and if he does the same today Bristol de mai will be away and gone.

I've also done the vautour, thistle crack and limini treble as I think they should win easily.

Doctor harper has been absolutely laid out for the last race, price will tumble before the off, get on.

In the pertemps I'm interested in mall dini as he's a horse I've followed, he travels so well in his races but doesn't seem to then see the race out ,tongue tied first time today I expect another good run with Davy Russell onboard

I said

I said wrote: »

E/w chance and causes of causes e/w for me.
Will decide in morning on thistlecrack and vautour got stung on UDS today and still can't figure out new to this towns run

Vautour win and Alpha de obeaux e/w

closcriobh

Boyles the first to go EVS on Vautour...

beertons

13.30 Outlander@5/1
14.10 Missed Approach@11/1
14.50 Vatour@10/11
15.30 Thistlecrack@6/5
16.50 Bloody Mary@11/1
17.30 Sambremont@16/1

Lucky 63 ew, 10c per line.

Francie Barrett

2:00 - Round Tower 4/1
2:50 - Vautour 10/11
3:30 - Thistlecrack 5/4
5:30 - The Giant Bolster 14/1

modmuffin

rossom wrote: »

Black Hercules 6/1
If In Doubt 11/1
Vautour 5/6
Thistlecrack 5/4
Niceonefrankie 20/1
Smart Talk 7/1
Upswing 9/1
.

All aboard the rossom train!

Wicklow Brave

1:30 L'ami Serge 8/1 and Zabana 10/1

2:10 Arpege D'alene 14/1 and Saddlers Encore 14/1

2:50 w/o Vautour - Josses Hill 11/1, Al Ferof 6/1, Vibrato Valtat 16/1

3:30 Cole Harden 7/1, At Fishers Cross ew w/o Thistlecrack 14/1

4:10 Johns Spirit 6/1, Ballycasey ew 18/1

4:50 Smart Talk 7/1, Bantam ew w/o Limini 14/1

5:30 Cause Of Causes 6/1

Wicklow Brave

Wicklow Brave wrote: »

1:30 L'ami Serge 8/1 and Zabana 10/1

2:10 Arpege D'alene 14/1 and Saddlers Encore 14/1

2:50 w/o Vautour - Josses Hill 11/1, Al Ferof 6/1, Vibrato Valtat 16/1

3:30 Cole Harden 7/1, At Fishers Cross ew w/o Thistlecrack 14/1

4:10 Johns Spirit 6/1, Ballycasey ew 18/1

4:50 Smart Talk 7/1, Bantam ew w/o Limini 14/1

5:30 Cause Of Causes 6/1

Add:
3:30 Aux Ptits Soins 16/1

Vautour/Thistlecrack/Limini treble aswell for the craic.

Ben Gadot

Nothing mad today:

€2.50 win patent: Thistlecrack, Garde La Victoire, Cause of Causes.

50c win lucky: Vautour, Zabana, Leave at Dawn, Alpha Des Obeaux

50c ew lucky: Mall Dini, Limini, Josses Hill, Full Shift

Rooy

Small e/w accumulator today based on tips here ;

Accumulator (4) Each-Way

14.10 If In Doubt @ 11/1 (GP)
16.10 Johns Spirit @ 6/1 (GP)
16:50 Smart Talk @ 7/1 (GP)
17.30 Doctor Harper @ 11/2 (GP)

king Henry 14

Does anyone know if desoto county will get into the county hurdle tomorrow

Shane732

Can't decided whether to go in big with Thistlecrack

No balls today.