Beef predictions

epfff

Just to throw it out again
What are yeer tea leaves/crystal balls saying for rest of the year

CloughCasey1

epfff wrote: »

Just to throw it out again
What are yeer tea leaves/crystal balls saying for rest of the year

That we'll all close our eyes and plough on as usual!

I said

epfff wrote: »

Just to throw it out again
What are yeer tea leaves/crystal balls saying for rest of the year

The definition of insanity
Keep doing the same thing hoping for a different result.

Reggie.

Few locals around here ain't too happy over larry looking to take slaney meats. They reckon it will drop the price if beef in sept/Aug. Can't say if I agree with them or not

MickeyShtyles

Reggie. wrote: »

Few locals around here ain't too happy over larry looking to take slaney meats. They reckon it will drop the price if beef in sept/Aug. Can't say if I agree with them or not

Think about what will happen when Uk leave the Eu.....

ganmo

Reggie. wrote: »

Few locals around here ain't too happy over larry looking to take slaney meats. They reckon it will drop the price if beef in sept/Aug. Can't say if I agree with them or not

Nobody's happy about that!
The week it was announced icm started playing silly buggers with lamb quotes

Hagimalone

If you had to buy, what age & type of cattle would ye purchase?

CloughCasey1

Hagimalone wrote: »

If you had to buy, what age & type of cattle would ye purchase?

If I had the ground. 9-10mt old Square FR or FRx 280-310kg in Feb/Mar for €400 and keep to 29mt finish

weatherbyfoxer

CloughCasey1 wrote: »

If I had the ground. 9-10mt old Square FR or FRx 280-310kg in Feb/Mar for €400 and keep to 29mt finish

Yep that the way id go anyways..have a few nice u grade limo heifers going to the factory next week...when agent was out looking at them he had more intreast in the 2 pens of fr bullocks next them!..makes you wonder whats the point of lads breeding hi quality continental stock espeicaly with such weight and fat penltys!

blue5000

weatherbyfoxer wrote: »

Yep that the way id go anyways..have a few nice u grade limo heifers going to the factory next week...when agent was out looking at them he had more intreast in the 2 pens of fr bullocks next them!..makes you wonder whats the point of lads breeding hi quality continental stock espeicaly with such weight and fat penltys!

We won't know until they're all gone.....

Few lads that used to rear 20 fr bull calves round here are now gone to 80, when these hit the market, whether it's on the hook or in the mart there is going to be a serious glut. Would quality cattle make more in future? Maybe if a live trade to UK opens up, (but larry won't like that) they won't want to buy holstein sh1te, they already have enough of them. I could be wrong though, maybe our holsteins aren't as bad as theirs:D. Some are already going N at 2.10/kg LW

60% of our beef goes to UK, if they go brexit and bring in beef from Brazil and lamb from NZ we might have to sell to the continent.

I'd be inclined to hedge my bets, buy some cheap fr to keep the place stocked, and a bit of quality in case there's a live trade for them. If brexit goes ahead will there be an export refund?

Just my 2 cents, which of ye pi55ed off pudsey? He was always fairly good on the (crystal) ball.

coolshannagh28

blue5000 wrote: »

We won't know until they're all gone.....

Few lads that used to rear 20 fr bull calves round here are now gone to 80, when these hit the market, whether it's on the hook or in the mart there is going to be a serious glut. Would quality cattle make more in future? Maybe if a live trade to UK opens up, (but larry won't like that) they won't want to buy holstein sh1te, they already have enough of them. I could be wrong though, maybe our holsteins aren't as bad as theirs:D. Some are already going N at 2.10/kg LW

60% of our beef goes to UK, if they go brexit and bring in beef from Brazil and lamb from NZ we might have to sell to the continent.

I'd be inclined to hedge my bets, buy some cheap fr to keep the place stocked, and a bit of quality in case there's a live trade for them. If brexit goes ahead will there be an export refund?

Just my 2 cents, which of ye pi55ed off pudsey? He was always fairly good on the (crystal) ball.

Pudsey could be back in the fold

CloughCasey1

blue5000 wrote: »

We won't know until they're all gone.....

Few lads that used to rear 20 fr bull calves round here are now gone to 80, when these hit the market, whether it's on the hook or in the mart there is going to be a serious glut. Would quality cattle make more in future? Maybe if a live trade to UK opens up, (but larry won't like that) they won't want to buy holstein sh1te, they already have enough of them. I could be wrong though, maybe our holsteins aren't as bad as theirs:D. Some are already going N at 2.10/kg LW

60% of our beef goes to UK, if they go brexit and bring in beef from Brazil and lamb from NZ we might have to sell to the continent.

I'd be inclined to hedge my bets, buy some cheap fr to keep the place stocked, and a bit of quality in case there's a live trade for them. If brexit goes ahead will there be an export refund?

Just my 2 cents, which of ye pi55ed off pudsey? He was always fairly good on the (crystal) ball.

I think (know) it was our very own optimistic ball of positivity Cassidy!

50HX

good cattle will always make good money but when you compare FR v continental at finish stage it's a diiferent game

the game seems to be changing tho and class continentals are loosing out to the FR glut that's starting to come on stream

if you were to believe others then we all should be buying the calves from the dairy herd and driving them on

in my short experience if every one is running up the hill you'r better off to run down the hill

i agree with early post and hedging bets as best you can...limit the exposure

for what it's worth i can't see the brits voting to leave the EU...way too much at stake

the agri side of things in the UK is way down the political pecking order
if they did leave then the UK would have to replace the EU money from their own finances

that's the farmers voting to stay in anyway i thinks, add that number to the elligable irish that can vote and the fact that the Scots couldn't vote yes to leaving the UK nevermind the EU - i just don't see it happening

i'm not up to speed on it but think about, borders again in the north,lack of guaranteed access to EU markets, bundles more red tape, less security

i hope the don't leave for everyones sake

I said

I'll give over the odds for stores again this year thinking this year will be different Rodney

weatherbyfoxer

Another thing i have noticed is the type of beef that people are buying..high quality beef cuts like exspencive steak and roasts are fading out this side of europe..stewing meat,mince,burgers,small cheaper minute steaks..etc.seem to be what the vast majority of people in england and ireland seem to be buying...so if the consumer wont pay for the prime meat from hi quality beef animal the cheaper fr and frx will have to come in to play

Cassidy2

CloughCasey1 wrote: »

I think (know) it was our very own optimistic ball of positivity Cassidy!

Goodman clough.the truth is a killer.

CloughCasey1

Cassidy2 wrote: »

Goodman clough.the truth is a killer.

;-);-);-)

epfff

I'm now realising all the good beef guys with knowledge have left
Bob was always on the spot when I joined here
No insult intended to base and a few more of ye but yeer interests seem to be before the finishing stage

CloughCasey1

epfff wrote: »

I'm now realising all the good beef guys with knowledge have left
Bob was always on the spot when I joined here
No insult intended to base and a few more of ye but yeer interests seem to be before the finishing stage

What do you see in your tealeaves/crystal ball epfff? I'd have to agree with you as these posters like pudsey etc. knew their stuff but with experience we'll all get there. What drives me demented on here are the lads that criticise everyone else's system while not being able or willing to put forward an alternative. My view on what may happen is that prices will remain as is until end of July and may dip to 3.65 base before November and rise again week before Christmas and stabilise at 3.80-90 by February. Anyone who didn't go mad buying before 1st August last yr won't get too badly burnt but anyone who bought from May to end of July last yr will lose their shirt come finishing. There was a a drop of 150 per head after July and prices today are slightly above last spring so wouldn't be buying yearlings to 18mts now as too dear especially the nice continental types. Small bit of value in out of spec/colour framey empty types which are always the ones to look out for. Let the SFP farmers fight over the rest.

Cavanjack

CloughCasey1 wrote: »

If I had the ground. 9-10mt old Square FR or FRx 280-310kg in Feb/Mar for €400 and keep to 29mt finish

You'd be doing well to get them for €400. Any fr round 300kg seems to be making round €550 from what I've seen on mart reports.

CloughCasey1

Cavanjack wrote: »

You'd be doing well to get them for €400. Any fr round 300kg seems to be making round €550 from what I've seen on mart reports.

Which is too dear imo.

barnaman

charolois calves were making €500 in Tipp mart last thursday so some optimists out there! Or else they should be 2 towns over.

I said

Paddock graze buy the value not the type and if it suits me to go to the mart I will if not I'll factory them.
That's my system it works for me

I said

barnaman wrote: »

charolois calves were making €500 in Tipp mart last thursday so some optimists out there! Or else they should be 2 towns over.

Lads go mad for the yella ones

Cavanjack

CloughCasey1 wrote: »

Which is too dear imo.

It is but good value seems hard to get. Then there are lads paying close to €300 for AA calves two weeks old. I would think the fr at 300kg would be better value.

Base price

epfff wrote: »

I'm now realising all the good beef guys with knowledge have left
Bob was always on the spot when I joined here
No insult intended to base and a few more of ye but yeer interests seem to be before the finishing stage

No insult taken and I admire your drive and passion.
I have to admit to developing a very jaundiced opinion of factories as I get older. Years ago when I was breeding (pbr's) and finishing continentals we made good money for what we produced. They were happy days when you got decent money for decent cattle. In fairness our beef enterprise actively contributed to paying off a 20 year mortgage within 10 years in addition to a f/t off farm income - mine.
When the original EUROP(e)/1234 classification was introduced it worked well and everyone was happy. Graders were "real" people. Then came the more refined system +,=,-/1,2,3,4, which was sold to us as the bees knees by the farming organisations, in particular the IFA. The new graders were computer/photographic machines (VIA's) :mad: - don't get me started about mandatory calibrations, independent Auditors etc. It is the biggest load of b****x IMO as it played directly into the hands of the factories and the worst bit is the IFA backed it all the way and it is now the standard.
In Winter 2013 we quit trying to chase the ever changing factory specs. We decided to go back to basics and do what we both enjoyed doing - rearing cattle be them quality continentals, traditional beef or dairy/x - and fulfilling our livestock requirements for SFP.
My view on beef production has become jaundiced over the years due to my personal financial circumstances however yours is a blank page yet to be written.
Best of luck

bogman_bass

IMO winter finishing has always been a mugs game. With the kill as high as it is I see pice holding steady until May. The usual early summer rise will be there but will happen earlier than last year and last less time. The peak will be over before the first week of July as extra cattle start to come on stream. Weather in June during the Euro could be a factor if people break out the BBQs or not

patsy_mccabe

It's very hard to predict the price of Beef. You can look at the numbers of births on bord bia website, animal kill per weeks etc etc but that's only the supply side of things. Equally as important is the demand side of things and since 90% of our beef is exported, that's international demand. Now that could be depending on anything from drought in Australia & USA to fine weather here in Europe. Who knows!

epfff

patsy_mccabe wrote: »

It's very hard to predict the price of Beef. You can look at the numbers of births on bord bia website, animal kill per weeks etc etc but that's only the supply side of things. Equally as important is the demand side of things and since 90% of our beef is exported, that's international demand. Now that could be depending on anything from drought in Australia & USA to fine weather here in Europe. Who knows!

Solid points but short term we should be able to see this

Im going for modest short lived rise June
Steady drop for rest of year to bottom of 350 on first of December

kk.man

I predict once we have a result from Europe Re Slaney then watch it fall like a stone... 3.50 by Christmas. Our factories get spoilt once kill exceed 30k per week

barnaman

Cannot blame Goodman for everything though too much beef in the EU. Devaluation of Brazialian real not helping EU exports either

http://gain.fas.usda.gov/Recent%20GAIN%20Publications/Livestock%20and%20Products%20Semi-annual_The%20Hague_EU-28_2-19-2016.pdf

The Yanks assessment.

visatorro

Is the future for beef not becoming contract rearers for the big feed lots the factories and their agents running. Impossible to compete with them ringside and impossible to operate on the small margins feedlots do. Buy light stock of anybreed or rear your sucklers to the minimum weight required and let go. Keep your spf and take it handy.

Where is AP when you need him?

barnaman

Visa thats the correct assessment imo unless you are a butcher or similar. If SBF goes and it might, who knows if EU will be here 20 years done the line, thats when all gets interesting!

blue5000

visatorro wrote: »

Is the future for beef not becoming contract rearers for the big feed lots the factories and their agents running. Impossible to compete with them ringside and impossible to operate on the small margins feeelots do. Buy light stock of anybreed or rear your sucklers to the minimum weight required and let go. Keep your spf and take it handy.

Where is AP when you need him?

Possibly, but the problem with that is they just take turns buying what's in the ring. There could be €200 difference for stock where that is going on. I still think suckler farmers are better off finishing their own.

visatorro

blue5000 wrote: »

Possibly, but the problem with that is they just take turns buying what's in the ring. There could be €200 difference for stock where that is going on. I still think suckler farmers are better off finishing their own.

Very true but seller's know that feeelots have contracts to fill and can hold for a price on the farm gate possibly. They know to the nearest euro how much they can pay so can pay the money for stock if the trailer isn't full yet.

Base price

visatorro wrote: »

Is the future for beef not becoming contract rearers for the big feed lots the factories and their agents running. Impossible to compete with them ringside and impossible to operate on the small margins feeelots do. Buy light stock of anybreed or rear your sucklers to the minimum weight required and let go. Keep your spf and take it handy.

Where is AP when you need him?

I was very interested in the Bord Bia stand at the Ploughing last year - I think it was Bord Bia. They had a side table showing steak sizes in the plastic pre packed trays used by supermarkets. The optimum sized steak was from a Friesian.
Remember that our (ex) Minister for Tanks and Tractors was pushing dairy expansion for the last few years prior to quota abolition. One wonders was he doing so because we need more milk production or are there other underlying reasons? By increasing dairy cow numbers and therefore their offspring (FR bull calves) it swamps our domestic calf market and plays directly into the hands of factories and their associated feed lots.
Dairy bull calf exports are iffy at the moment (first year post quota) and all but the best quality bulls are making their way to veal sheds in Spain & Holland.
If Bord Bia are correct, Friesian beef are what the factory's customers (UK supermarket chains) want - cheap meat.
I should add that I have not seen the leaba in the last 24 hours so my conspiracy theory maybe be way off the mark

50HX

[QUOTE=Base price;99 By increasing dairy cow numbers and therefore their offspring (FR bull calves) it swamps our domestic calf market and plays directly into the hands of factories and their associated feed lots. [/quote]

i would agree with that which if true beggars the question why are we even trying to compete with cheap meat worldwide when we have this top class grass based product which only a few countries can replicate

we need a new market for our continental beef that we produce

look at ring of kerry lamb and what they did after getting hammered with prices for decades.

my problem with ABP and all factories is what meat ends up where?? if i send a top class heifer to be slaughtered i get x price and she may end up in the US at a higher premium and its Larry et all that cream it

rantin a bit as i need the cot too:(

coolshannagh28

In a subsidised system the trick is to maximise subsidy and minimise losses through the actual trading

kk.man

50HX wrote: »

i would agree with that which if true beggars the question why are we even trying to compete with cheap meat worldwide when we have this top class grass based product which only a few countries can replicate

we need a new market for our continental beef that we produce

look at ring of kerry lamb and what they did after getting hammered with prices for decades.

my problem with ABP and all factories is what meat ends up where?? if i send a top class heifer to be slaughtered i get x price and she may end up in the US at a higher premium and its Larry et all that cream it

rantin a bit as i need the cot too:(

I totally agree where does our cows from QA farms wind up? Is their meat in a QA packet and farmer gets no bonus opposed to the bullocks and heifers from same herd????

Bass Reeves

visatorro wrote: »

Is the future for beef not becoming contract rearers for the big feed lots the factories and their agents running. Impossible to compete with them ringside and impossible to operate on the small margins feeelots do. Buy light stock of anybreed or rear your sucklers to the minimum weight required and let go. Keep your spf and take it handy.

Where is AP when you need him?

Factory's lose money on most cattle from there own feedlots. By the time they have everything paid, labour, feed, buying in cost and capital cost they in general lose money. To try to reduce these losses they have over last 2-3 years run feedlots owned by bigger finishers, in general this reduce labour and capital costs.

Where is AP ???? he told too many home truths and lads were gunning for him so he got the road.

blue5000 wrote: »

Possibly, but the problem with that is they just take turns buying what's in the ring. There could be €200 difference for stock where that is going on. I still think suckler farmers are better off finishing their own.

With prices for 300-350 kg 8-10 months old sucklers over last few week you would be mad to finish same. In general these cattle were making 2.7-3/kg A 350 one was costing 1K Killing at 370kgs these would need a price of 4.2 to make 1550 euro. That is giving you 1.5/kg to put on that weight. If I had these sort of stock I be offloading at present.

Base price wrote: »

I was very interested in the Bord Bia stand at the Ploughing last year - I think it was Bord Bia. They had a side table showing steak sizes in the plastic pre packed trays used by supermarkets. The optimum sized steak was from a Friesian.
Remember that our (ex) Minister for Tanks and Tractors was pushing dairy expansion for the last few years prior to quota abolition. One wonders was he doing so because we need more milk production or are there other underlying reasons? By increasing dairy cow numbers and therefore their offspring (FR bull calves) it swamps our domestic calf market and plays directly into the hands of factories and their associated feed lots.
Dairy bull calf exports are iffy at the moment (first year post quota) and all but the best quality bulls are making their way to veal sheds in Spain & Holland.
If Bord Bia are correct, Friesian beef are what the factory's customers (UK supermarket chains) want - cheap meat.
I should add that I have not seen the leaba in the last 24 hours so my conspiracy theory maybe be way off the mark

The processors make no secret that O= to R- carcasses are more than adequate for the supermarket trade. Continental cattle carcass's are way yoo big for supermarket trade. Nobody wants to cut a striploin in half or a big square lump of beef with no shape or fat on it.

50HX wrote: »

i would agree with that which if true beggars the question why are we even trying to compete with cheap meat worldwide when we have this top class grass based product which only a few countries can replicate

we need a new market for our continental beef that we produce

look at ring of kerry lamb and what they did after getting hammered with prices for decades.

my problem with ABP and all factories is what meat ends up where?? if i send a top class heifer to be slaughtered i get x price and she may end up in the US at a higher premium and its Larry et all that cream it

rantin a bit as i need the cot too:(

We have never branded out beef with the exception of the AA and He schemes. No grass fed brands or REPS brads for beef. Processor do not want that easier and more profitable to sell unbranded beef at 20-30% discount into the UK market.

kk.man wrote: »

I totally agree where does our cows from QA farms wind up? Is their meat in a QA packet and farmer gets no bonus opposed to the bullocks and heifers from same herd????

QA is a racket. Factory's only pay a bonus on about 30% of the streers killed. Rest are outside QA spec.

ganmo

Ap got permanently banned for not serving a week ban, are you a accusing Kovu and greysides of having alterior motives?

Jb1989

"Bass wrote:

Where is AP ???? he told too many home truths and lads were gunning for him.

+1. He had very sensible real life views regarding the problematic beef sector.

Jb1989

Good to see you popped back in,
Good luck with this years buying,
And very true about glas, for those lucky to get in in the first tranches.

coolshannagh28

He hasn't gone away you know

Jb1989

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

He hasn't gone away you know

Yea, hopefully be back soon.

patsy_mccabe

It's amazing the number of posters that have closed accounts. You really notice it when you look at old posts. A lot for a forum where normally everyone is fairly civilised.

Reggie.

patsy_mccabe wrote: »

It's amazing the number of posters that have closed accounts. You really notice it when you look at old posts. A lot for a forum where normally everyone is fairly civilised.

Its the nature of the beast patsy. Forums grow in popularity and then taper off. People will always get fed up after a few years and move on only to return in time again.

Reggie.

poorbeeffarmer wrote: »

13,302 posts Reggie, you have a high boredom threshold Hope all is well fella. Nice shed!

Still alive anyways.
I'd say the rise of twitter has alot to do with it. I notice posters here would have a few hundred posts but may have thousands of tweets. Twitter is easier for posting pics and including main company reps in conversations for example with a forum like this just can't compete.

I said

Reggie. wrote: »

Still alive anyways.
I'd say the rise of twitter has alot to do with it. I notice posters here would have a few hundred posts but may have thousands of tweets. Twitter is easier for posting pics and including main company reps in conversations for example with a forum like this just can't compete.

#fcuk Twitter

Reggie.

I said wrote: »

#fcuk Twitter

Be that as it may ... many from here have migrated over to it.

epfff

And I just asked for predictions of beef price

I get Every thing from profitability to lost friends to social media trends

What a quality forum my arse