Hung Dail?

u2me

What if Scenarios?

If FG & FF wont go in together the only possible solutions include independents.

Renua etc won't have enough seats to put FG & Lab over the line.

Seems we are destined to have a quick return to the polling stations .

"Yesterday is not ours to recover, but tomorrow is ours to win or lose." Lyndon B. Johnson

u2me

Haughey and O’Malley, Spring and Reynolds, ==> Kenny and Martin?.

Fr Tod Umptious

Which is the best bet for FG.

Don't entertain coalition with FF, regroup under a new leader and try again in a few months to get their message of economic recovery across better.

Or try an alliance with FF for fear that not doing so and forcing another election on tbe people will not be popular.

The thing with the support for independents may be a bit like when a small team draw with a big team in a football match. The big team often win the replay, so do the independents get the damelevel of support if there is an election in 2 months time.

Daroxtar

Less than a quarter of the electorate want FG in power. Less than a quarter of the electorate want FF in power. Neither of them want the other. If they do unite it will be to form a government that the vast majority won't want, yet their combined arrogance and indifference to the public will probably push them together to secure a nice pension top up for a bunch of unwanted, unworthy egotists

stefan.kuntz

Daroxtar wrote: »

Less than a quarter of the electorate want FG in power. Less than a quarter of the electorate want FF in power. Neither of them want the other. If they do unite it will be to form a government that the vast majority won't want, yet their combined arrogance and indifference to the public will probably push them together to secure a nice pension top up for a bunch of unwanted, unworthy parasites.

And what percent want SF in government? Or AAA/PBP or independent?

Have to laugh when hurlers on the ditch selectively talk about arrogance and indifference. Agenda driven bile. Laughable.

Princess Consuela Bananahammock

Hanging them would be a good idea!

Serously, though, I think you'll be voting again. Not that that will do anything.

titan18

Daroxtar wrote: »

Less than a quarter of the electorate want FG in power. Less than a quarter of the electorate want FF in power. Neither of them want the other. If they do unite it will be to form a government that the vast majority won't want, yet their combined arrogance and indifference to the public will probably push them together to secure a nice pension top up for a bunch of unwanted, unworthy egotists

What's the alternative? Do you have one or just complaining for the sake of it?

newacc2015

Daroxtar wrote: »

Less than a quarter of the electorate want FG in power. Less than a quarter of the electorate want FF in power. Neither of them want the other. If they do unite it will be to form a government that the vast majority won't want, yet their combined arrogance and indifference to the public will probably push them together to secure a nice pension top up for a bunch of unwanted, unworthy egotists

Look at it this way, 45% of the population dont want SF and Independents in Government either. Lets see how effective a Government filled with incompetent independents gets on. They have no views or values on anything.

Look at Dublin Central, which is a very working class area. They elected Maureen O'Sullivan in 2011 as an independent. Independents have been soaring in popularity especially Dublin. She got a horrific 8.4% first preference. Versus double digits for all the big party candidates. People are starting to realise, independents are great on paper and useless in reality.

Stark

newacc2015 wrote: »

People are starting to realise, independents are great on paper and useless in reality.

Hear hear. Hard to see how you can form an alternative government when most of the Dail is made up of independents.

Ren2k7

Haven't we had hung Dail's since the late 80's? Coalition bargaining is a fact of Irish politics. The only thing unusal this time is the prospect of FG and FF teaming up in some hellish populist, gombeen alliance. Better get ready for a crazy few years folks.

Mr.Nice Guy

newacc2015 wrote: »

Look at it this way, 45% of the population dont want SF and Independents in Government either. Lets see how effective a Government filled with incompetent independents gets on. They have no views or values on anything.

Look at Dublin Central, which is a very working class area. They elected Maureen O'Sullivan in 2011 as an independent. Independents have been soaring in popularity especially Dublin. She got a horrific 8.4% first preference. Versus double digits for all the big party candidates. People are starting to realise, independents are great on paper and useless in reality.

A bewildering post considering how well independents have performed. I read earlier that 1 in 3 voters went for an Independent. That's a damning indictment of the failure of the main parties. To say they have no views or values is just ignorant. I watched the four main leaders debating and it was just desperate stuff. A slanging match.

As for Dublin Central, they altered the constituency boundary there so perhaps she lost key support. Or maybe she just wasn't any good. To extrapolate from one candidate's disappointing performance that all independents are bad pretty much sums up why the electorate has no faith in mainstream thinking any more.

Fr Tod Umptious

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

A bewildering post considering how well independents have performed. I read earlier that 1 in 3 voters went for an Independent. That's a damning indictment of the failure of the main parties. To say they have no views or values is just ignorant. I watched the four main leaders debating and it was just desperate stuff. A slanging match.

As for Dublin Central, they altered the constituency boundary there so perhaps she lost key support. Or maybe she just wasn't any good. To extrapolate from one candidate's disappointing performance that all independents are bad pretty much sums up why the electorate has no faith in mainstream thinking any more.

Selection of independents can often be cyclical.
One election they do well, as a protest/alternative, the next they do poorly when its realised that they do not have a huge influence.

u2me

Those who seek power or who wish to retain power rarely consider the consequences for others, they act in the moment. They will take any option available to them and in this case it is the FF/FG coalition.

With Kenny facing a heave this will play to FF advantage.

The problem will be duplication of roles and personal power base struggles. Who would be Taoiseach? etc etc

They will probably play the we have to form a FF/FG coalition to avoid the dreaded Sinn Fein rainbow coalition to soften the stance of the hard line members.

The truth is the Troika still have us by the gilhullies (b*lls) so there is limited room for maneuver anyway making the coalition easier to manage for both sides.

FourFourRED

Joan Burton is hung like a horse!

godtabh

FourFourFM wrote: »

Joan Burton is hung like a horse!

Any update on her?

Inquitus

godtabh wrote: »

Any update on her?

The SF candidate won't pick up enough transfers to put her under threat in all likelyhood.

newacc2015

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

A bewildering post considering how well independents have performed. I read earlier that 1 in 3 voters went for an Independent. That's a damning indictment of the failure of the main parties. To say they have no views or values is just ignorant. I watched the four main leaders debating and it was just desperate stuff. A slanging match.

As for Dublin Central, they altered the constituency boundary there so perhaps she lost key support. Or maybe she just wasn't any good. To extrapolate from one candidate's disappointing performance that all independents are bad pretty much sums up why the electorate has no faith in mainstream thinking any more.

If you ask Americans why Sanders is doing so well. It is not because they like him or his policies. It is just they dont like Clinton. Even Clintons camp have said she isnt very like. 1 in 5 people who voted some of the carcass's, were torn between either choosing between Trump or Sanders. They have very different values or views. But they represent an alternative from mainstream parties.

Actually the new boundary would have benefited independents more. They moved the wealthier areas of Glasnevin and Drumcondra into North West. These areas tended to be either FG or FF strongholds. The top 5/6 performing candidates in Dublin Central were big parties (and Former SF Burke). You would expect in a working class areas, where people are more likely to feel alienated from big parties they would have voted Independents.

People are voting for "alternatives" not because they agree with their policies. Most of our referendums end up being a straw poll on people's opinion of the Government. A huge amount of no votes in the first Lisbon treaty was due to the lack of popularity of the Government.

Fr Tod Umptious

Willie O Dea was on the radio earlier very much distancing himself from a FF/FG coalition.

Why ?

Because he said it would make SF the main opposition and thus give them a platform to form the next Govt in the next election.

I found that very defeatist.
He is killing the chances of FF/FG coalition working before it ever got started, but he also has a point I suppose.
Being in opposition give you the chance to promise the moon and stars without having to deliver them.

u2me

I imagine this might be just a bit of cat and mouse from Willie to try give FF the upper hand in any negotiations to follow.

u2me

looks like Joan Burton will probably squeeze in but I doubt she will remain leader for too long after the election

The_Valeyard

u2me wrote: »

looks like Joan Burton will probably squeeze in but I doubt she will remain leader for too long after the election

Could have a point,

Read somewhere that labour are required to have a leadership contest six months after an election if the party in not in power.

Mr.Nice Guy

newacc2015 wrote: »

If you ask Americans why Sanders is doing so well. It is not because they like him or his policies. It is just they dont like Clinton. Even Clintons camp have said she isnt very like. 1 in 5 people who voted some of the carcass's, were torn between either choosing between Trump or Sanders. They have very different values or views. But they represent an alternative from mainstream parties.

Actually the new boundary would have benefited independents more. They moved the wealthier areas of Glasnevin and Drumcondra into North West. These areas tended to be either FG or FF strongholds. The top 5/6 performing candidates in Dublin Central were big parties (and Former SF Burke). You would expect in a working class areas, where people are more likely to feel alienated from big parties they would have voted Independents.

People are voting for "alternatives" not because they agree with their policies. Most of our referendums end up being a straw poll on people's opinion of the Government. A huge amount of no votes in the first Lisbon treaty was due to the lack of popularity of the Government.

Again, you're making sweeping generalisations based on presumably your own anecdotal experiences.

Maureen O'Sulivan retained her seat by the way.

Fr Tod Umptious

Eammon O Cuiv was on TV earlier and ruled out coalition with FG or SF.

Michael Martin earlier said that he expects to be nominated for Taoiseach on March 10th.

So its going to be hard for them to figure out how they will do that.

TCDStudent1

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Eammon O Cuiv was on TV earlier and ruled out coalition with FG or SF.

Michael Martin earlier said that he expects to be nominated for Taoiseach on March 10th.

So its going to be hard for them to figure out how they will do that.

I wouldn't pay too much notice to what o'cuiv says!

Atlantic Dawn

How much does it cost the state to run an election, I'm guessing about €20million?

It will 100% be an FF/FG coalition from this run, they are both too greedy for power to risk a rerun.

KingBrian2

I believe what cost the coalition was the plight of the homeless and SF and FF seized on that. There are many reasons for homelessness but the absence of gvt policy in tackling the problem is part of the disconnect between the gvt parties and the electorate.

u2me

95 of 157 seats filled level pegging FF/FG 28 seats each.

Only viable option is FF/FG Coalition, would it survive the first budget? Rotating Taoiseach? Power base struggles?

They will form the government, line their coffers and fumble along till descent among the FG ranks forces the collapse.

Can Kenny really maintain the confidence of his party in a FF/FG Coalition? Younger ambitious deputies already nipping at his heels.

"The perils of duck hunting are great - especially for the duck." Walter Cronkite -- Au revoir Mr Kenny.

Re-election within a year.

Fr Tod Umptious

Frank Flannery said it best.

Another election in the next few weeks or months would turn Ireland into an open air psychiatric hospital.

Wanderer78

Fr Tod Umptious wrote:

Another election in the next few weeks or months would turn Ireland into an open air psychiatric hospital.

Bit of madness could be fun though

u2me

As good old Friedrich Nietzsche once said "Madness is rare in individuals - but in groups, parties, nations, and ages it is the rule."

Going to be an interesting few months.

FF move ahead in the seats tally......

storker

u2me wrote: »

Only viable option is FF/FG Coalition, would it survive the first budget? Rotating Taoiseach? Power base struggles?

Not to mention annoyed back-benchers. If FF/FG form a government together, roughly half the TDs in each party who would have been in line for a plum job will lose out.

Inquitus

storker wrote: »

Not to mention annoyed back-benchers. If FF/FG form a government together, roughly half the TDs in each party who would have been in line for a plum job will lose out.

They both lost out on that when the public voted!

grindle

newacc2015 wrote: »

People are voting for "alternatives" not because they agree with their policies.

Such an unusual thing to think. The alternatives and the like have been hell for leather reaching for the votes of people who care about specific issues, and this is coupled with a huge influx of new voters who'd initially only registered for the marriage referendum in order to combat "traditional views" and then saw that their vote actually mattered.
They won. Maybe they can win again?
At least they're taking part in the process (although my FB feed could've done without 'Look, Me Vote Now!' Posts).

I'd consider myself economically to the right yet ended up for left leaning parties because their values are more in line with mine.
Anybody who was neutral or negative to a repeal of the 8th? Down the list.
Neutral or negative to the idea of decreasing the influence the church has over schools? Down the list.
Neutral or negative to the decriminalisation of cannabis? Down y'go.
Don't like wind farms primarily due to NIMBYism? PFO.

The main parties made it hard to vote for them when either their party line or their candidates tended to have Victorian views I'd expect of people born a century before me, never mind a few decades. Was I supposed to vote for one of them despite their beliefs making me feel ashamed to?

Elemonator

This is actually so stupid. Whether you support a grand coalition between FG and FF, because of some dated suspicion and mistrust between the two parties that is nearly 100 years old at this stage, holds voters to ransom again. If we were sent back to the polls and their was a credible alternative, I know who I wouldn't vote for.

Inquitus

Elemonator wrote: »

This is actually so stupid. Whether you support a grand coalition between FG and FF, because of some dated suspicion and mistrust between the two parties that is nearly 100 years old at this stage, holds voters to ransom again. If we were sent back to the polls and their was a credible alternative, I know who I wouldn't vote for.

The People have spoken and it's a Grand Coalition or another election, and FF/FG have to fear they will do worse if we are sent back to the polls.

murphaph

100 year old civil war politics aside, what is the ideological difference between FF and FG? It's high time these parties merged IMO. Maybe politics can improve in Ireland if the defining nature of the 2 biggest parties isn't some position their predecessors took on something that happened a century ago.

A coalition between these 2 parties seems like a long overdue step really.

u2me

There is no strong ideological differences between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. They remain slightly left or right of each other on economic or social issues but nothing that can't be overcome.

The civil war divide is part of the past and should not influence the future. I imagine political issues in the form of party position and the dealing out of the various ministry positions will be the greatest hurdles to overcome. A difficult balancing act which will leave many disgruntled on both sides.

Mycroft H

Is FF/Sinn Fein (minus adams)/SD/Others not enough. I could see this happen.

Fr Tod Umptious

Mycroft H wrote: »

Is FF/Sinn Fein (minus adams)/SD/Others not enough. I could see this happen.

Let's say 43+20+3 = 66, that would need 14 others just to get to the minimum for a majority.
14 is a lot to gather and keep under control.
And there is no guarantee FF will get as many as 43.
Doable ? Yes
Stable ? I don't think so.

u2me

buy a lotto ticket more chance of winning than a FF rainbow coalition with SF

Eugene Norman

Inquitus wrote: »

The People have spoken and it's a Grand Coalition or another election, and FF/FG have to fear they will do worse if we are sent back to the polls.

Or people will start voting for parties or people who want to run the place.

KingBrian2

u2me wrote: »

There is no strong ideological differences between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. They remain slightly left or right of each other on economic or social issues but nothing that can't be overcome.

The civil war divide is part of the past and should not influence the future. I imagine political issues in the form of party position and the dealing out of the various ministry positions will be the greatest hurdles to overcome. A difficult balancing act which will leave many disgruntled on both sides.

FF emphasise more spending and subsiding state owned assets kinda like Socialist mantra while FG is a low tax party. Gvt is there to keep the cheques coming in. Produce Irish goods and sell to international trade partners.

Ren2k7

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Being in opposition give you the chance to promise the moon and stars without having to deliver them.

Well it worked for FF didn't it?

TCDStudent1

I think it was Thomas Byrne on a week in politics was saying that there are independents elected with a Fianna Fáil history that could vote for Martin as Taoiseach. If Fianna Fáil do some sort of deal with the Healy - raes to get their vote, I'll lose all faith with politics!

NIMAN

SF don't want any part of Gov, they've made that perfectly clear, so its FF/FG or nothing at this stage.

Fr Tod Umptious

TCDStudent1 wrote: »

I think it was Thomas Byrne on a week in politics was saying that there are independents elected with a Fianna Fáil history that could vote for Martin as Taoiseach. If Fianna Fáil do some sort of deal with the Healy - raes to get their vote, I'll lose all faith with politics!

But sure Bertie relied on the support of Jackie Healy-Rae in all his governments so why would Martin doing the deal with Tweedledum and Tweedledummer surprise you ?

Ren2k7

TCDStudent1 wrote: »

I think it was Thomas Byrne on a week in politics was saying that there are independents elected with a Fianna Fáil history that could vote for Martin as Taoiseach. If Fianna Fáil do some sort of deal with the Healy - raes to get their vote, I'll lose all faith with politics!

Back to the 80's.

1st dalkey dalkey

SF are the third largest party. No getting away from that.
The establishment (FF and FG) know they are on the ropes.
Refuse to form a government and the public blame one or the other.
Form a government and SF become the main opposition, benefiting from every bit of anti government feeling that comes their way.
From an establishment point of view, the least worst option is to go back to the country. Borrow, if necessary, but try to re-establish the two party option.
Once it is gone, one of them are gone. When that happens the establishment is gone.

mrbrianj

Sein Fein have probably the most anti government bounce that they will ever have at the moment - AAA, Independents have taken that. Any increase in their support will have to be based on their own principles and policies from now on.

I cant see where the fear of making them the biggest opposition party is - good performance and communication will strengthen the government party rather than the opposition.

One thing that drives me mad are the elected (mainly FG) saying that "the people have spoken, but we cant to figure out what they are saying" - if you cant figure that out you are in the wrong game!

Sleepy

The right move for Fine Gael is to publicly beg FF to join them as a junior partner in a coalition and then abstain from the vote when FF refuse their offer and nominate Martin as Taoiseach.

When the minority FF government falls within a wet week, FG would surely stand to gain most at a second election?

mrbrianj

They would then run the risk of being looking like sulks putting the party ahead of the country and by doing so giving FF the bounce in the next election.

They dropped the ball big time, I think they have to look as willing as possible to work for the country and let past good work stand and the bad spin fade.