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Using Poker for teaching Calculated Risk Taking workshop

  • 08-02-2016 10:16am
    Registered Users Posts: 4,015 ✭✭✭ FrankGrimes

    I'm going to be running a workshop in which project managers are taught about managing risk by assessing the probability of a risk occurring and gauging the severity of the impact were it to happen (high probability + high severity = high risk which needs to be managed). Idea is to convey the concept that at times it is ok to make a decision which has a non-zero risk so long as the trade-off against the potential benefits is positive (i.e. instead of not being comfortable backing any decision which involves some level of risk, which is often the case).

    I think Poker would give a good mechanism for running an effective way to illustrate risk calculation in a fun way. Idea being that we need to separate the decision from the outcome. So if you go all-in pre-flop with 3h10h heads-up and end up catching a flush on the river against AA, yeh it might look to the uninitiated like a great decision, but the odds made it a poor call.

    Wanted to see if anyone has suggestions for classic scenarios in poker that represent good cases for using to demonstrate good judgement/risk calculation vs. bad (i.e. not profitable in the long-term)?

    We'll be using concepts like identifying the Known Knowns (e.g. after the flop you can calculate the probability of your hand hitting the nuts) and Known Unknowns (what the opposition is holding) etc. So after demonstrating simple concepts like one hand vs the other, I'd like to then bring calculating pot odds, and % of your stack into the consideration as they also effect decision making. I know just the basics of poker play so thought I'd ask for some thoughts from those with more knowledge in case there's good scenarios you can think of off top of head that would work well to illustrate a concept in a workshop like this. Thanks.