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General Election - Feb 26th Megathread

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    #3062
    My name is URL
    Registered Users Posts: 25,068 ✭✭✭✭My name is URL


    Billy86 wrote: »
    We've even got a minister for health lined up!

    http://i.imgur.com/u9e18uX.gif
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CH4B2R5XAAE3h3u.png

    Super Hans would be no good

    Gerard ftw


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    #3063
    recylingbin
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,001 ✭✭✭recylingbin


    My name is URL wrote: »
    Isn't that your man that was caught along with his canvassers, stealing other candidates literature from people's letterboxes?

    Your heart would truly bleed for the man /s

    No, no.
    *apparently* his canvassing staff were removing Hogan's leaflets from postboxes to read them.


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    #3064
    Chain Smoker
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,484 ✭✭✭Chain Smoker


    Longford not having a rep will be very interesting imo. The whole of the midlands is pretty deeply engrained in local politics and this is a chance for both the representatives and the people to snap out of it. I gather a lot of the FG vote in Longford actually went to the Westmeath candidate, which just underlines how disliked Bannon is in the area.

    Happy Labour got the 7th seat, they f*cked up hugely but it's better them having some kind of opposing voice.


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    #3065
    The Rape of Lucretia
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,440 ✭✭✭The Rape of Lucretia


    Chain Smoker wrote: »
    Longford not having a rep will be very interesting imo.

    Curious. How so ?
    Does anyone really care where TD come from once they are all in the Dail and the only people really of consequence are the cabinet.


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    #3066
    My name is URL
    Registered Users Posts: 25,068 ✭✭✭✭My name is URL


    Chain Smoker wrote: »
    Happy Labour got the 7th seat, they f*cked up hugely but it's better them having some kind of opposing voice.

    A lot of people are being very short-sighted in celebrating Labour's demise.

    Whatever one might think of them as a party in recent times, they had by far the greatest amount of outwardly socially liberal reps than any other party.

    Loads of people have switched to candidates that shout about being social and liberal but don't have the first idea about many social or liberal issues when it comes to governance.

    I'm not defending Labour... they did deserve to take a beating, but the revelry by some is premature.


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    #3067
    StewartGriffin
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,284 ✭✭✭StewartGriffin


    The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »
    Does anyone really care where TD come from once they are all in the Dail and the only people really of consequence are the cabinet.

    30,000 Kerry folk just raised their hands.


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    #3068
    StewartGriffin
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,284 ✭✭✭StewartGriffin


    My name is URL wrote: »
    A lot of people are being very short-sighted in celebrating Labour's demise.

    Whatever one might think of them as a party in recent times, they had by far the greatest amount of outwardly socially liberal reps than any other party.

    Loads of people have switched to candidates that shout about being social and liberal but don't have the first idea about many social or liberal issues when it comes to governance.

    I'm not defending Labour... they did deserve to take a beating, but the revelry by some is premature.

    I agree. They historically attract a good balance between intellectual and Trotsky-ite candidates. In theory, these should be the best people to run a small country, unfortunately in practice this hasn't quite worked out.
    I think they will bounce back, they are a party with good structure and the Labour name, (which is international,) will soon attract a new harvest of candidates.

    I was amazed that the Marriage Referendum failed to rescue Labour. The party who facilitated the vote for this "Massive Historic event," :rolleyes: were flushed down the toilet less than nine months after this splurge of public emotion. Remember Panti and Rainbows and comparisons with the emancipation of Rosa Parks?

    Feck that, what about the water charges?


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    #3069
    The Rape of Lucretia
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,440 ✭✭✭The Rape of Lucretia


    StewartGriffin wrote: »
    30,000 Kerry folk just raised their hands.

    Bats enough to elect two buffoons, bats enough to raise their hands.


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    #3070
    Iwasfrozen
    Registered Users Posts: 16,250 ✭✭✭✭Iwasfrozen


    StewartGriffin wrote: »
    30,000 Kerry folk just raised their hands.
    I say we jettison Kerry.


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    #3071
    Phoebas
    Registered Users Posts: 9,370 ✭✭✭Phoebas


    My name is URL wrote: »
    A lot of people are being very short-sighted in celebrating Labour's demise.

    A lot of people wrote FF's obituary a few years ago and they were wrong.
    Same with Labour. A party that have been around for as long as them aren't going to be down for long.


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    #3072
    StewartGriffin
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,284 ✭✭✭StewartGriffin


    Iwasfrozen wrote: »
    I say we jettison Kerry.

    Kerry says they jettison us.


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    #3073
    Iwasfrozen
    Registered Users Posts: 16,250 ✭✭✭✭Iwasfrozen


    Phoebas wrote: »
    A lot of people wrote FF's obituary a few years ago and they were wrong.
    Same with Labour. A party that have been around for as long as them aren't going to be down for long.
    Labor is the party of James Connolly, it's the party of Liberty Hall, the trade union movement and the urban middle class public sector workers. These are areas SF and AAA-PBP can't fill. Labor is far from dead.


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    #3074
    The Rape of Lucretia
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,440 ✭✭✭The Rape of Lucretia


    Some of the leftest 30% of Ireland will toy with AAA, SF lefter that labour, but it will never be enough to be coherent or a majority. The labour party is sufficiently centrist, as it always has been, to be able, periodically, to coalesce with the centre. If anything, the rise of a strong enough pole for the portion of the left that isnt left enough, is that it will leave a more uniform Labour party which will find it easier to form coalitions with assorted combinations of FF, FG, Greens, SDs.


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    #3075
    Chain Smoker
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,484 ✭✭✭Chain Smoker


    The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »
    Curious. How so ?
    Does anyone really care where TD come from once they are all in the Dail and the only people really of consequence are the cabinet.
    It's not about where the TD comes from exactly though, it's about where they're going to get their votes from in the next election, and there absolutely is a strong local bias in the midlands to the point that it generally hasn't been worth your while courting votes from the other county.
    It seems fairly obvious to me that local services will get a more favourable showing if there's a voice of dissension there (e.g. Ming ****eing on about turf in Roscommon) and it has very much been the case in the past that the county lines would be fairly strictly adhered to with all that stuff but hopefully this signals a bit of a change.

    Bannon done such an awful job over the past few year and arrogantly assumed he'd get in just because he was the only Longford candidate that stood a chance, if the county bias weren't a thing he wouldn't have came close.
    My name is URL wrote: »
    A lot of people are being very short-sighted in celebrating Labour's demise.

    Whatever one might think of them as a party in recent times, they had by far the greatest amount of outwardly socially liberal reps than any other party.

    Loads of people have switched to candidates that shout about being social and liberal but don't have the first idea about many social or liberal issues when it comes to governance.

    I'm not defending Labour... they did deserve to take a beating, but the revelry by some is premature.
    Yep, I've had a few on facebook who seem actively angry that they got the seventh seat, I don't understand it at all.


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    #3076
    Custardpi
    Registered Users Posts: 2,807 ✭✭✭Custardpi


    StewartGriffin wrote: »

    I was amazed that the Marriage Referendum failed to rescue Labour. The party who facilitated the vote for this "Massive Historic event," :rolleyes: were flushed down the toilet less than nine months after this splurge of public emotion. Remember Panti and Rainbows and comparisons with the emancipation of Rosa Parks?

    Feck that, what about the water charges?

    I wasn't amazed at all. It appears to me that many Labour supporters mistook people agreeing with them on one or two particular issues for support which could be translated into Labour votes. The reality however is that people vote for a party not based on just whether they agree or disagree with the policies the party is most visible on but according to the priority in which they rank various political issues.

    In pretty much any democracy you care to name surveys show that it is "bread & butter" issues - their own income & outgoings, jobs in their local area, healthcare, schools etc which tend to come at the top of people's priorities when voting.

    Even if people agreed with Labour on the marriage referendum if other parties were able to convince them that they would be better off financially or that healthcare would be improved or whatever their own particular interest was then the latter issues would trump any enthusiasm they previously had for Labour's social policies.

    Like it or not the prospect of having to pay huge water bills once the caps come off to an entity constructed in highly questionable circumstances was always going to play a more important role in the decision making process of many people than the fact that their gay uncle or sister or whatever could now marry their partner, regardless of how strongly they might have supported that.


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    #3077
    Jack Killian
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,663 ✭✭✭Jack Killian


    StewartGriffin wrote: »

    I was amazed that the Marriage Referendum failed to rescue Labour. The party who facilitated the vote for this "Massive Historic event," :rolleyes: were flushed down the toilet less than nine months after this splurge of public emotion. Remember Panti and Rainbows and comparisons with the emancipation of Rosa Parks?

    Feck that, what about the water charges?

    I don't understand why doing A would cause people to suck up spin and lies about B ?

    Each action should be judged on its own merit, with the would be that they get a few right.

    FF's smoking ban & FG aiming to fix the SME owners' PAYE allowance would be other examples.

    In addition the referendum was passed by people, not parties; in face their contempt by illegally campaigning with badges in Leinster House would have put many off and risked the "desired result.


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    #3078
    KomradeBishop
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,981 ✭✭✭KomradeBishop


    Good article here about the election:
    https://brianmlucey.wordpress.com/2016/03/05/cognitive-biases-and-election-2016/

    I don't agree with a lot of peoples narrative in the media and online, about this being any kind of a 'defeat' for Fine Gael though.
    They may not have done well, but since they are practically the same as Fianna Fail, and collectively have enough votes to run the country, I don't really view it as a defeat at all myself - I view it as being just as bad, as if all the votes went to just Fianna Fail, or just Fine Gael.


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    #3079
    The Rape of Lucretia
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,440 ✭✭✭The Rape of Lucretia


    KomradeBishop wrote: »
    I don't agree with a lot of peoples narrative in the media and online, about this being any kind of a 'defeat' for Fine Gael though.

    I dont think any reasonable viewing of the results can consider it a defeat. Being the most voted for, and having the highest seat count, undeniably means that FG won the election.
    We have moved away from the 2 1/2 party system where a win meant an overall majority or a labour supported coalition. We have a wider political spectrum now, without the hangups of 1922.
    The winning one is the one with most seats, and in the driving seat to have the biggest muscle in any coalition negotiations.
    FG clearly won this election.


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    #3080
    K-9
    Registered Users Posts: 43,311 ✭✭✭✭K-9


    A better campaign and no Enda and they'd have 31/32% and 60 seats no bother.

    Mad Men's Don Draper : What you call love was invented by guys like me, to sell nylons.



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    #3081
    The Rape of Lucretia
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,440 ✭✭✭The Rape of Lucretia


    K-9 wrote: »
    A better campaign and no Enda and they'd have 31/32% and 60 seats no bother.

    Which wouldnt have any great effect on the coalition formation dynamic even if so.


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    #3082
    K-9
    Registered Users Posts: 43,311 ✭✭✭✭K-9


    The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »
    Which wouldnt have any great
    effect on the coalition formation dynamic even if so.

    Labour would normally get 11/12 seats from their vote but were transfer toxic. 70-75 seats and a deal could be done with the IA or Independents.

    Mad Men's Don Draper : What you call love was invented by guys like me, to sell nylons.



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    #3083
    Billy86
    Closed Accounts Posts: 23,495 ✭✭✭✭Billy86


    Replace Kenny with someone else and all the same people would give out about that someone else, too. All part of being a political leader in difficult times, or a political leader not from Fianna Fail.


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    #3084
    Custardpi
    Registered Users Posts: 2,807 ✭✭✭Custardpi


    As lacklustre as Kenny was on the campaign it's hard to think of a senior FG representative who could definitely have done a better job, though there does appear to have been a lot of mutterings from the back benches about how it was run, the message put out etc.


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    #3085
    The Rape of Lucretia
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,440 ✭✭✭The Rape of Lucretia


    K-9 wrote: »
    Labour would normally get 11/12 seats from their vote but were transfer toxic. 70-75 seats and a deal could be done with the IA or Independents.

    Why would labour get more seats if FG had ditched Enda and won 60 seats ?


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    #3086
    Custardpi
    Registered Users Posts: 2,807 ✭✭✭Custardpi


    The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »
    Why would labour get more seats if FG had ditched Enda and won 60 seats ?

    Possibly a higher FG vote would include transfers to the junior partner, thus pushing a few more Labour candidates over the line. How realistic that is I'm not sure.


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    #3087
    Synode
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,967 ✭✭✭Synode


    K-9 wrote: »
    A better campaign and no Enda and they'd have 31/32% and 60 seats no bother.

    I agree. Enda needs to be removed immediately


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    #3088
    Custardpi
    Registered Users Posts: 2,807 ✭✭✭Custardpi


    Synode wrote: »
    I agree. Enda needs to be removed immediately

    Replaced by who, Coveney?


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    #3089
    K-9
    Registered Users Posts: 43,311 ✭✭✭✭K-9


    The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »
    Why would labour get mor
    e seats if FG had ditched Enda and won 60 seats ?

    An extra 5% for FG would mean more transfers for Labour.

    Mad Men's Don Draper : What you call love was invented by guys like me, to sell nylons.



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    #3090
    Custardpi
    Registered Users Posts: 2,807 ✭✭✭Custardpi


    K-9 wrote: »
    An extra 5% for FG would mean more transfers for Labour.
    Theoretically yes, but it's not always as cut & dry as that. It's possible that a more successful strategy in terms of securing FG 1st preferences would not necessarily have attracted voters who gave subsequent preferences to Labour candidates.


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    #3091
    My name is URL
    Registered Users Posts: 25,068 ✭✭✭✭My name is URL


    http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2016/revealed-taoiseach-offers-half-of-cabinet-seats-to-keep-power-in-extraordinary-plan-34514998.html
    The Taoiseach Enda Kenny is making an extraordinary behind-the-scenes attempt to form a government of 80 seats, in which Independents and TDs from smaller parties would comprise over half the Cabinet, the Sunday Independent can reveal.

    It has also been learned that Mr Kenny has assured Fine Gael ministers that he will resign as leader of the party if he is not elected as Taoiseach.

    Could be bullcrap as it's the Sindo, but interesting all the same.


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