Brexit Referendum Superthread

First Up

murphaph wrote:

The UK is a totally different economy to say Germany, which sells, from inside the EU desirable products to the whole world. It's a disaster waiting to happen.

Correct. The UK has global competitive advantage in services, in large part because English is the global language of commerce. They have no such advantage in manufacturing. If service exports to the EU are curtailed by Brexit they are seriously fooked because for sure their exports of goods will be.

Sam Russell

First Up wrote: »

Correct. The UK has global competitive advantage in services, in large part because English is the global language of commerce. They have no such advantage in manufacturing. If service exports to the EU are curtailed by Brexit they are seriously fooked because for sure their exports of goods will be.

The trouble with services is that the internet is making it possible for an architect in Westport to service a building project in Boston just as easily as if (s)he was based in New York. The benefit of being 'local' is fast disappearing for services. Service industries will be global - irrespective of FTA or tariffs.

On the other hand, Mercedes reduced their list price by 10% across the board late least year which happens to be the WTO tariff for motor cars. On the other hand, I cannot see the European market paying 10% extra for a Nissan Quaskai built in Sunderland, and I can see Nissan moving production to Hungary, Slovakia, or the Czech republic. However, I can see BMW and Mercedes getting 10% extra for their prestige models in London if WTO tariffs are added.

Even if tariffs are not a barrier, customs delays will be - how can just-in-time production work for Nissan if a shipment of engines is stuck in Calais for three days? So manufacturing will need to be rejigged post a hard Brexit.

whatstherush

123shooter wrote: »

rules and regulations of one size fits all with terms and conditions laid down by others.

Ya who needs rules and regulations, UK BSE burgers for everyone!

First Up

Sam Russell wrote:

The trouble with services is that the internet is making it possible for an architect in Westport to service a building project in Boston just as easily as if (s)he was based in New York. The benefit of being 'local' is fast disappearing for services. Service industries will be global - irrespective of FTA or tariffs.

Not so for financial services in the EU. Unless the UK is granted passporting rights they will be excluded from the market.

Sam Russell

First Up wrote: »

Not so for financial services in the EU. Unless the UK is granted passporting rights they will be excluded from the market.

Financial services are regulated. So if regulated within the EU by the local Central Bank they will be OK (except the BofE will be outside the EU).

Likely there will be mass movement of financial transaction out of London to Paris, Frankfurt, Luxembourg (or perhaps Dublin). The only 'passporting' by the UK financial services will be at the airport.

solodeogloria

First Up wrote: »

Not so for financial services in the EU. Unless the UK is granted passporting rights they will be excluded from the market.

Good afternoon!

This is why I mentioned regulatory equivalence for third countries as a part of MiFID II (Markets in Financial Instruments Directive II).

The directive makes it possible for countries who are deemed equivalent on the basis of regulation to passport into the EEA.

The point is that this is very possible and the Commission have made it possible in the directive. The UK will implement MiFID II on January 2nd. Lots of investment banks and hedge funds are implementing the requirements as we speak.

There is still far far too much fearmongering going on at a very early stage in negotiations. The EU member states need continued access to financial services in the UK. People like Wolfgang Schäuble have acknowledged this.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

recedite

ambro25 wrote: »

There is far less 'unease' about the EU in the countries you mention, than there seems to be in the UK.

Witness the Greek's steadfast pro-EU vote at the height of the financial crisis in 2015, the Dutch sending Wilders packing last year, the French sending Marine packing this year <...>

If Greece was out of the EU they could devalue their currency and then trade their way back into solvency through hard work. As it is now, they have become dependent on EU loans to pay for their dole money. That's why they opted to stay in. But its a vicious circle for them, and they know it. Greece is like a junkie needing his fix.

Le Pen got 34% in the recent Presidential elections. Not bad for the leader of a fringe party that used to only get between 5 and 10% of the vote a few years ago.

Wilders increased his number of seats in the Dutch parliament this year from 12 to 20. Not bad for one guy. And because Rutte refused to work with him, they were unable to form a government.

It’s 83 days since the Dutch general election returned prime minister Mark Rutte’s Liberals at the head of the polls, but still there’s no sign of a workable coalition government – and Geert Wilders is seeing the exclusion of his right-wing Freedom Party becoming ever less politically sustainable.

So I'm not sure what your definition of "sent packing is" but if you mean "did not win a majority" then I suppose you are right, even though that would not expected of a minority party anyway.

The fact is though, both Wilders and Le Pen have a strongly growing support base. Which must be interpreted (at least in part) as growing unease with certain EU policies.
Its not just in the UK.

ancapailldorcha

recedite wrote: »

Le Pen got 34% in the recent Presidential elections. Not bad for the leader of a fringe party that used to only get between 5 and 10% of the vote a few years ago.

Macron got 66% which is considerable given that En Marche! is less than 18 months old.

recedite wrote: »

Wilders increased his number of seats in the Dutch parliament this year from 12 to 20. Not bad for one guy. And because Rutte refused to work with him, they were unable to form a government.
So I'm not sure what your definition of "sent packing is" but if you mean "did not win a majority" then I suppose you are right, even though that would not expected of a minority party anyway.

That's democracy though.

recedite wrote: »

The fact is though, both Wilders and Le Pen have a strongly growing support base. Which must be interpreted (at least in part) as growing unease with certain EU policies.
Its not just in the UK.

LePen was soundly defeated in the French elections. En Marche! currently enjoys a majority in the French government. Like Jeremy Corbyn's Labour party, Wilders has been beaten. Whether or not they can bounce back depends heavily on how Brexit plays out. So far, it's been a farce.

First Up

recedite wrote:

If Greece was out of the EU they could devalue their currency and then trade their way back into solvency through hard work.

With what and to where? Greece's industrial base is very narrow and mostly in relatively low value added sectors. It would take an export boom of gigantic proportions to make much difference and they don't have the capacity to increase output by that much.

Meanwhile the cost of their imports would rise immediately.

Nor is tourism the solution; the Greek tourism sector is close to capacity and employing more chambermaids and waiters is not going to lead economic recovery.

The EU bail-outs bought them time to re-structure their economy and introduce greater efficiencies. They have done little of it so far.

recedite

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Macron got 66% which is considerable given that En Marche! is less than 18 months old.

A good result yes, but Macron is not a newbie; he was previously a Minister for finance in the Socialist administration. What he has done is to correctly foresee the downfall of the socialists, and he has repositioned himself in a new party slightly to the right of them.

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Like Jeremy Corbyn's Labour party, Wilders has been beaten. Whether or not they can bounce back depends heavily on how Brexit plays out. So far, it's been a farce.

The difference is that the UK Labour party is a long established major party. One that was recently capable of forming an overall majority, but now gets far less support than that in the elections.

Wilders, on the other hand, is just one guy on the rise. In every election, he gets more seats than in the previous one.

ancapailldorcha

Both fair points.

I think it might be a bit early to declare the wave of populism to be over. A lot rides on the upcoming German elections which Merkel looks like winning.

If Brexit proves to be a success, something I doubt then the likes of Wilders and LePen will be emboldened, as will the Visegrad group. So far though, it looks messy at best.

Professor Moriarty

recedite wrote: »

A good result yes, but Macron is not a newbie; he was previously a Minister for finance in the Socialist administration. What he has done is to correctly foresee the downfall of the socialists, and he has repositioned himself in a new party slightly to the right of them.
The difference is that the UK Labour party is a long established major party. One that was recently capable of forming an overall majority, but now gets far less support than that in the elections.

Wilders, on the other hand, is just one guy on the rise. In every election, he gets more seats than in the previous one.

Untrue. In 2010, the Party for Freedom had 24 seats. In 2012 they had 15 seats.

Since inception, the Party for Freedom has gained these percentages of votes:

2006: 5.89%
2010: 15.45%
2012: 10.08%
2017: 13.1%

This constitute an increase in vote share of 7.21% over 11 years.

At that rate, Geert will be dead before he gets enough votes to form a government.

Capt'n Midnight

123shooter wrote: »

Because you claim you get better deals for your produce as a member of the EU.

Japan has a 38% tariff on imported beef. Soon that'll be zero % for Irish exporters.

It'll get interesting up north.

https://sluggerotoole.com/2009/04/29/our-people-may-be-british-but-our-cows-are-irish/

Ian Paisley, the fire-breathing DUP leader, came to see Tony Blair in the midst of the 2005 Foot and Mouth crisis in the UK and in an attempt to take advantage of the looser restrictions on movement of cattle in the south than in the north said, “Our people may be British but our cows are Irish”.

Capt'n Midnight

It's not just the financials offshoring because of Breit.

http://www.bbc.com/news/education-40532060

King's College London could become the first British university to open a European campus since the referendum.

King's has been collaborating with Technische Universität Dresden on a research initiative, known as Transcampus, since 2015.

But, according to Times Higher Education, an "offshore King's College Europe" is now on the cards.

recedite

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

as will the Visegrad group

Looks like that will gradually be eclipsed by CEDC, now that Austria has aligned with them.

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

At that rate, Geert will be dead before he gets enough votes to form a government.

I think he prefers to be in a position to influence government. Something like Farage, or even our own Shane Ross.

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Japan has a 38% tariff on imported beef. Soon that'll be zero % for Irish exporters.

It just shows the hypocrisy of the EU insisting that a free trade with the UK would be "cherrypicking", while at the same time its a "progressive" deal when signed with Japan.
Anyway, whats to stop the UK from signing a similar deal?
Oh yeah, I nearly forgot; EU rules forbidding a current member state from negotiating a unilateral deal with an outside country.
If they have any sense in the UK, they will prepare such a deal secretly, and then sign it with Japan (and others) immediately after the Brexit process has completed.

steddyeddy

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Japan has a 38% tariff on imported beef. Soon that'll be zero % for Irish exporters.

It'll get interesting up north.

https://sluggerotoole.com/2009/04/29/our-people-may-be-british-but-our-cows-are-irish/

Seriously it's their problem at this stage. Stay in the UK and out of the EU and suffer. The DUP should have backed a special status for the North.

123shooter

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Japan has a 38% tariff on imported beef. Soon that'll be zero % for Irish exporters.

Koji Tsuruoka Japan's ambassador to the UK said in a radio 4 interview that the negotiations so far took 4 years and 3 months and reckons it could be many months even years before the deal is signed with the EU.

In which case the UK and others could be in there before hand and British beef long eaten before a tariff free Irish steak gets there.

As Trump says today 'he can do the deals quick' ..........with the UK.

This is like .......my dads bigger than your dad and your not walking down our road.

Professor Moriarty

recedite wrote: »

Looks like that will gradually be eclipsed by CEDC, now that Austria has aligned with them.
I think he prefers to be in a position to influence government. Something like Farage, or even our own Shane Ross.

It just shows the hypocrisy of the EU insisting that a free trade with the UK would be "cherrypicking", while at the same time its a "progressive" deal when signed with Japan.
Anyway, whats to stop the UK from signing a similar deal?
Oh yeah, I nearly forgot; EU rules forbidding a current member state from negotiating a unilateral deal with an outside country.
If they have any sense in the UK, they will prepare such a deal secretly, and then sign it with Japan (and others) immediately after the Brexit process has completed.

No other party would touch him with a barge pole.

Professor Moriarty

123shooter wrote: »

Koji Tsuruoka Japan's ambassador to the UK said in a radio 4 interview that the negotiations so far took 4 years and 3 months and reckons it could be many months even years before the deal is signed with the EU.

In which case the UK and others could be in there before hand and British beef long eaten before a tariff free Irish steak gets there.

As Trump says today 'he can do the deals quick' ..........with the UK.

This is like .......my dads bigger than your dad and your not walking down our road.

There is a flaw in your logic. Britain will have to negotiate a trade deal with Japan first. The EU is much further down that road. Also, Japan has much to gain from its FTA with the EU. More wishful thinking by May and her merry band, I'm afraid.

123shooter

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

There is a flaw in your logic. Britain will have to negotiate a trade deal with Japan first. The EU is much further down that road. Also, Japan has much to gain from its FTA with the EU. More wishful thinking by May and her merry band, I'm afraid.

I dont know they would be dealing with one person there and then and not having to deal with someone who has to go back and confer with others before they get an answer.

Junkyard Tom

123shooter wrote: »

In which case the UK and others could be in there before hand and British beef long eaten before a tariff free Irish steak gets there.

British beef is banned from Japan. The Japanese are not going to do any deal with Britain on Beef until they see what sort of regulatory system the British adopt in the wake of Bexit, whenever the hell that will be complete.

123shooter

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

British beef is banned from Japan. The Japanese are not going to do any deal with Britain on Beef until they see what sort of regulatory system the British adopt in the wake of Bexit, whenever the hell that will be complete.

1 year and 9 months or less isnt it?

First Up

recedite wrote:

It just shows the hypocrisy of the EU insisting that a free trade with the UK would be "cherrypicking", while at the same time its a "progressive" deal when signed with Japan. Anyway, whats to stop the UK from signing a similar deal? Oh yeah, I nearly forgot; EU rules forbidding a current member state from negotiating a unilateral deal with an outside country. If they have any sense in the UK, they will prepare such a deal secretly, and then sign it with Japan (and others) immediately after the Brexit process has completed.

"'Cherrypicking" refers to the UK trying to hold on to the bits of EU membership that it likes. Japan is not in the EU and even with a trade agreement, its trade with the EU will still be subject to customs procedures. The UK wants to leave the EU but hold on to the benefits of single market membership.

The EU has trade arrangements with all third countries and they apply to all EU members under a Common External Tarrif. That's sort of the point of a single market.

The UK will need to agree trade arrangements with all countries and trade blocs - including the EU. It will be interesting to see how they do in replicating the trade terms they currently enjoy.

123shooter

First Up wrote: »

"'Cherrypicking" refers to the UK trying to hold on to the bits of EU membership that it likes. .

Who says this you? Britain has told them they are out and out is out.

Billy86

123shooter wrote: »

I dont know they would be dealing with one person there and then and not having to deal with someone who has to go back and confer with others before they get an answer.

What can Britain offer Japan that will make Japan stop looking towards the EU and shift their priorities over to Britain enough to get that deal done before any potential EU one?

whatstherush

recedite wrote: »

Oh yeah, I nearly forgot; EU rules forbidding a current member state from negotiating a unilateral deal with an outside country.

This is a prime example of the simple thinking the runs through every brexiters/nativist thinking. The big bad EU forbids countries from make third party trade deals for the hell of it.

The UK is currently part of the single market meaning any goods exported to the other 27 are not subject to any custom checks. If the UK was allowed to have unilateral trade deals which had different tarrifs/regulations to the rest of the 27 what happens to the frictionless exporting they currently have with the rest of the 27. Where does the check to apply the EU tarrif happen if imported goods from unilateral deal were re-exported to the EU, which would be a definite possibility on any goods where the unilateral tarrif was lower than the EU tarrif.

Enzokk

recedite wrote: »

Looks like that will gradually be eclipsed by CEDC, now that Austria has aligned with them.
I think he prefers to be in a position to influence government. Something like Farage, or even our own Shane Ross.

It just shows the hypocrisy of the EU insisting that a free trade with the UK would be "cherrypicking", while at the same time its a "progressive" deal when signed with Japan.
Anyway, whats to stop the UK from signing a similar deal?
Oh yeah, I nearly forgot; EU rules forbidding a current member state from negotiating a unilateral deal with an outside country.
If they have any sense in the UK, they will prepare such a deal secretly, and then sign it with Japan (and others) immediately after the Brexit process has completed.

While the UK is part of the EU there is no need to negotiate anything with any other countries. In any case I would expect any other trade deal negotiations will want to look at what relationship the UK has with the EU as well as this will surely play a role in what relationship you want with a country. Or are people under the impression that everyone should just trade with all other countries without any tariffs and consequences be damned?

123shooter wrote: »

Koji Tsuruoka Japan's ambassador to the UK said in a radio 4 interview that the negotiations so far took 4 years and 3 months and reckons it could be many months even years before the deal is signed with the EU.

In which case the UK and others could be in there before hand and British beef long eaten before a tariff free Irish steak gets there.

As Trump says today 'he can do the deals quick' ..........with the UK.

This is like .......my dads bigger than your dad and your not walking down our road.

Australia and the US did a quickie trade deal due to the man crush Michael Howard had with George Bush Jnr. There was concerns about the speed the deal was done and basically rushed through. It also meant that due to the deal Australia focused their trade towards the US instead of looking at the closer markets in Asia. These things are complex and take time and if the UK doesn't want to heed history they may find the good news of various quick trade deals will be overshadowed in a few years by still sluggish economic data due to the rush to conclude trade agreements without ensuring that they are actually in the national interest.

The critics were right. Ten years after the Australia–United States Free Trade Agreement, or AUSFTA, came into force, new analysis of the data shows that the agreement diverted Australia’s trade away from the lowest-cost sources. Australia and the United States reduced their trade with the rest of the world by US$53 billion and are worse off than they would have been without the agreement.

Even key officials involved in the talks had doubts about whether the deal they could negotiate in the time they were given would serve the national interest.

The costs of Australia’s “free trade” agreement with America

First Up

123shooter wrote:

Who says this you? Britain has told them they are out and out is out.

But they claim (to the gullible UK electorate) that even when out they will be able to negotiate seamless and "frictionless" trade terms that replicate what they presently enjoy. They have taken delusion to new levels.

Sam Russell

123shooter wrote: »

Who says this you? Britain has told them they are out and out is out.

Britain have said they will negotiate a great deal with the EU on cake. They will be able to have their cake and eat it. The response from the EU was there will be no cake.

Junkyard Tom

123shooter wrote: »

1 year and 9 months or less isnt it?

Not a hope unless it's a cliff-edge Brexit which would be disastrous for Britain.