Brexit Referendum Superthread

A Dub in Glasgo

Another u-turn from May, she has spent months decrying another vote as 'now is not the time' and then goes and puts another vote to the UK. The Tories has some neck

Sam Russell

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Another u-turn from May, she has spent months decrying another vote as 'now is not the time' and then goes and puts another vote to the UK. The Tories has some neck

This could go so badly wrong for the Tories.

First, some hostages - 'Now is not the time' - 'Bexit means Brexit' - 'I will not call a snap GE' plus many more.

Second - NHS in crisis. Hospitals near collapse.

Third - £350 million a week going to the EU should go to NHS. A blatant lie.

Fourth - Austerity is really biting the poor and the JAMS but not affecting the 'Cleaning up Nicely thankyou' crowd.

Chickens coming home to roost. Scotland might go fully SNP. Lib Dems might make serious inroads. Labour might do better than expected, but unlikely. It is a long election campaign.

Interesting times - but not in a nice way.

A Dub in Glasgo

It is a very risky move bordering on stupid, May already has the HoC in the palm of her hand with regard to Brexit. It is very likely that

1. The Lib Dems will gain massively
2. Labour surely cannot go much lower
3. The SNP could put a campaign pledge that states if the majority of MPs returned are pro-independence they will take that as a mandate to start independence negoitations. In this situation, the SNP do not have to retain all their MPs. In effect, turn this general election into an independence issue

Water John

I agree with points 1 and 3, but LB can go much lower.

devnull

Sam Russell wrote: »

This could go so badly wrong for the Tories..

It could if there was an effective Labour party with a proper leader.

There isn't, and May knows that.

ancapailldorcha

Sam Russell wrote: »

This could go so badly wrong for the Tories.

I think your points are fair but you've forgotten 2 things:

1. The Tories are seen, rightly or wrongly as the party of fiscal responsibility and
2. Like Labour, they have a large cohort of dedicated voters who'll vote for them no matter what

Labour will cling on and likely remain the second largest party but I'd say the Lib Dems will make significant gains. Their support for the EU makes them the party of liberal youngsters though that is obviously contingent on them actually voting which might not be too unlikely.

catbear

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

[*]Like Labour, they have a large cohort of dedicated voters who'll vote for them no matter what

Trump got less votes than the two previous republic candidates that lost the presidential race. There's a lot of dedicated Labour supporters who like their republican counterparts may well just stay at home.

catbear

The LibDems have everything to gain on demographic trends. If they can capitalize on Corbyn Labour meaning a vote for regression then they've got a real chance of a heave towards them.

Water John

Tim Farron is out early with a clear statement of purpose. Corbyn has not factored into his message where the voting public are. His message is fine for core old stock LB supporters. That isn't enough.

First Up

I can understand why she has done it from an internal UK political perspective and the Tories will almost certainly gain from it.

But at what cost? Seven weeks during which they should be laying the groundwork for the Brexit negotiations will instead be spent demonstrating how divided the country is.

Great news for the UK's competitors for mobile investment and further ammunition for those in Europe who intend to make life difficult for them.

And that's without factoring in the Pandora's box of Scotland, where this will be in effect a proxy referendum on Independence.

devnull

Her argument about Scotland was that another election or referendum would be divisive....Hypocrite.

catbear

First Up wrote: »

I can understand why she has done it from an internal UK political perspective and the Tories will almost certainly gain from it.

But at what cost? Seven weeks during which they should be laying the groundwork for the Brexit negotiations will instead be spent demonstrating how divided the country is.

Great news for the UK's competitors for mobile investment and further ammunition for those in Europe who intend to make life difficult for them.

And that's without factoring in the Pandora's box of Scotland, where this will be in effect a proxy referendum on Independence.

Oh come on, what in the Tories interests is necessarily in the nations interests.

Their number one priority is power and Corbyn with his head stuck in 1970s socialism policy books as the opposition goalie then it's only instinctual that the Tories should knock it into the back of the net and dominate for the next five years.

Labour are looking at relegation, even the "don't know" option is doing better than Corbyn in the Leadership poll!

If it was so serious it would be hilarious.

Jayop

This makes no sense for me. I know it's just trying to gain a mandate as she herself was never elected PM by the people but I can only see them losing ground and this is a monster distraction during critical negotiations with the EU.

As useless as Corbyn is Labour can gain ground if they go balls out on a pro EU ticket with promises of a second referendum. The problem they have is that Corbyn has been something of a left wing Eurosceptic and was entirely unconvincing during the brexit ref.

Lib Dems will regain ground.

The SNP will run on a indyref ticket and will clean up on the system they have over there.

catbear

First Up wrote: »

I can understand why she has done it from an internal UK political perspective and the Tories will almost certainly gain from it.

But at what cost? Seven weeks during which they should be laying the groundwork for the Brexit negotiations will instead be spent demonstrating how divided the country is.

This isn't about the UK, it's about the Tories.

Corbyn, the opposition goalie is sitting in the goalmouth leafing through some socialist pamphlets from the early 1970s and the Tories are going to put it in the back of the net.

Corbyn isn't a stopped clock, he a moldy calendar in an abandoned prefab at some mine that was shut in the 80s.

There's no reason to vote for Corbyn if he's just waiting for the political narrative to shift to his advantage. Although the Tories might have everyone back down mine yet!

Lemming

catbear wrote: »

The LibDems have everything to gain on demographic trends. If they can capitalize on Corbyn Labour meaning a vote for regression then they've got a real chance of a heave towards them.

The LibDems have been gearing towards an election since the referendum vote farce outcome. If they've done their homework regards getting the message out into third-level institutions, I think they will make massive inroads with younger voters that throw historical class voting patterns to the winds.

I'll be voting for them. As a point, I will be emailing my local MP (Gill Furness in Sheffield; Lab) to ask her what her intentions regards #Wrexsh1t are. If nothing else, it's a shot across the bows.

Sam Russell

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I think your points are fair but you've forgotten 2 things:

1. The Tories are seen, rightly or wrongly as the party of fiscal responsibility and
2. Like Labour, they have a large cohort of dedicated voters who'll vote for them no matter what

Labour will cling on and likely remain the second largest party but I'd say the Lib Dems will make significant gains. Their support for the EU makes them the party of liberal youngsters though that is obviously contingent on them actually voting which might not be too unlikely.

The Tories are the Nasty party. They are in favour of austerity for the poor and largess for the rich. They have cut benefits for the disabled, cut back on the NHS and have it in crisis, and want to go to war with Spain over Gibraltar. They intend to cut Corporation tax and income tax for the rich.

Most of the savings from leaving the EU will be taken up with the 10,000 extra civil servants they will required to replace the 'un-elected bureaucrats in Brussels', and that is just for starters. They have to negotiate all those free trade deals with Vanuatu, and other important trading partners, which requires more civil servants.

Let us hope that the electorate sees through this grab for power.

Lemming

Sam Russell wrote: »

Let us hope that the electorate sees through this grab for power.

Given how abjectly thick the electorate apparently is - given the captain obvious reality of all the #Wrexsh1t promises made - I would not be so confident making such a statement any more.

Sam Russell

Lemming wrote: »

Given how abjectly thick the electorate apparently is - given the captain obvious reality of all the #Wrexsh1t promises made - I would not be so confident making such a statement any more.

We can still hope - even if it is a forlorn hope.

Jayop

It's nearly time for a new thread just on the new election.

First Up

catbear wrote: »

Oh come on, what in the Tories interests is necessarily in the nations interests.

Their number one priority is power and Corbyn with his head stuck in 1970s socialism policy books as the opposition goalie then it's only instinctual that the Tories should knock it into the back of the net and dominate for the next five years.

Labour are looking at relegation, even the "don't know" option is doing better than Corbyn in the Leadership poll!

If it was so serious it would be hilarious.

I already said this. I'm talking about the bigger picture.

ancapailldorcha

Sam Russell wrote: »

The Tories are the Nasty party. They are in favour of austerity for the poor and largess for the rich. They have cut benefits for the disabled, cut back on the NHS and have it in crisis, and want to go to war with Spain over Gibraltar. They intend to cut Corporation tax and income tax for the rich.

I was talking about how they're perceived.

Sam Russell wrote: »

Most of the savings from leaving the EU will be taken up with the 10,000 extra civil servants they will required to replace the 'un-elected bureaucrats in Brussels', and that is just for starters. They have to negotiate all those free trade deals with Vanuatu, and other important trading partners, which requires more civil servants.

I know. I voted Remain. In hindsight, were I not living in Brighton at the time, I'd have been out canvassing for it.

Sam Russell wrote: »

Let us hope that the electorate sees through this grab for power.

Unlikely, partly for the reasons I gave above twinned with the fact that that a significant number of those who wanted Brexit will probably vote Tory or maybe UKIP to keep to the course charted by May.

Sam Russell

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Unlikely, partly for the reasons I gave above twinned with the fact that that a significant number of those who wanted Brexit will probably vote Tory or maybe UKIP to keep to the course charted by May.

But in a GE, voting UKIP might make the Tory lose. FPTP can be cruel.

ancapailldorcha

Sam Russell wrote: »

But in a GE, voting UKIP might make the Tory lose. FPTP can be cruel.

It won't. UKIP were a storm in a teacup and that was before Brexit. They talk about claiming Labour territory in the North but if their new leader can't win in Stoke-on-Trent of all places then they're done.

catbear

This election should finish UKip off. They were always hyperTories but where will the voters they attracted from Labour go now?

I think we've got a few more surprises ahead of us.

seamus

UKIP are functionally a non-entity without Farage. Like the AAA without Paul Murphy. There will of course be a small cohort of supporters, but with their stated aim achieved they have nothing to offer the British electorate. They have no "after Brexit" plans, no negotiating experience and no influence over any aspect of the exit negotiations.

They've also now been caught on the hop. Anyone with half a brain would rename and rebrand UKIP as the conservative Conservatives to build a new voter base on what they have left. But now there's not enough time for that before the snap election. The leader is an unknown nobody and the last anyone heard about them, they were engaging in fist fights in their private meetings.

ancapailldorcha

seamus wrote: »

UKIP are functionally a non-entity without Farage. Like the AAA without Paul Murphy. There will of course be a small cohort of supporters, but with their stated aim achieved they have nothing to offer the British electorate. They have no "after Brexit" plans, no negotiating experience and no influence over any aspect of the exit negotiations.

Paul Nuttall was on Question Time not long ago and the only policy he had that I remember was cutting the foreign aid budget. That's it.

demfad

Lemming wrote: »

Given how abjectly thick the electorate apparently is - given the captain obvious reality of all the #Wrexsh1t promises made - I would not be so confident making such a statement any more.

The problem for the opposition will be the first past the post system.

Conservatives polls are very healthy. That said they could conceivably win with a relatively very low percentage. The Corbyn factor will split the opposition messily. Tories just need to keep enough focus on Corbyn.

BlitzKrieg

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Wasn't 'not having the distraction/sideshow at this critical juncture of negotiations' one of the reasons she gave for refusing the SNPs call for scindyref#2? Seems inconsistent.

Isnt this a move to possibly break indyref #2?

Right now the scots are mostly 50/50 on indyref #2 but we know the majority are against Brexit.

Brexit hasnt taken its massive sh*t on the country yet but May clearly knows it will, if she does nothing and indryref #2 happens 2 years down the line the situation could be bad enough to easily swing that 50/50 to a easy majority for independence.

But having a vote now means in Scotland the issue wont be as much brexit but the desire for another referendum and SNP could lose seats to those against the referendum.

catbear

demfad wrote: »

Conservatives polls are very healthy. That said they could conceivably win with a relatively very low percentage. The Corbyn factor will split the opposition messily. Tories just need to keep enough focus on Corbyn.

But a vote for Corbyn is a vote for Brexit which is a vote for the Tories.

Libdems have to hammer that message home, Corbyn = Tory Lapdog.

demfad

catbear wrote: »

But a vote for Corbyn is a vote for Brexit which is a vote for the Tories.

Libdems have to hammer that message home, Corbyn = Tory Lapdog.

Ergo: It is not possible for Labour to run in coalition with Libdems
Ergo: Easy win for Tories against split opposition.