February 2016 Boards forecast contest (enter by 1st 0300h)

M.T. Cranium

I have been having some problems fully connecting with boards.ie this week, hoping this will show up in a legible form ...

IMPORTANT NOTICE -- As discussed we are moving to a more rigorous contest deadline that takes place before the month really gets going (no free peeks at the data for the first now). This month will introduce the equivalent of the cold water reaching the mid-section ... enter by 0300h on Monday 1st Feb, will set the exact penalties when I get a better handle on how many people are having troubles with boards connection but for now will say probably 1% every 3 hours to 1500h 2nd then something more severe like 1% an hour.

The contest will require the usual five elements and one bonus question as follows:

1. Predict the IMT for the usual five stations, February normals are around 5.3 C.

2. Predict the MAX temp for any station.

3. Predict the MIN temp for any station.

4. Predict the precipitation (PRC) as percentage of normal for the eleven stations normally used.

5. Predict the sunshine (SUN) as percentage of normal for the six stations normally used.

6. BONUS -- Predict the highest temperature in Ireland on Sunday 14th (Valentines' Day) and where that will occur.

Good luck. If anyone can read this but can't post, then send me an e-mail:

podismtc@gmail.com

and I'll be happy to post it for you.

sryanbruen

sryanbruen_______ 4.9 __ 13.8 __ -12.2 __ 63 __ 114 ____ 8.5 - Valentia Observatory

I'm really taking the risk for the minimum temperature!

pauldry

Pauldry_______ 5.2__ 13.5__ -5.1 __ 109 __ 110____ 11- Sherkin



Use your phone to enter

Its beta than pc.

Bsal

Bsal_______ 5.1__ 14.6__ -4.4 __ 115 __ 111____ 11.4 - Sherkin

Timmyboy

Timmyboy_______ 4.9__ 16.4__ -6.3 __ 88 __ 104____ 13.9-Cork Airport

:rolleyes: Just wondering about that maximum temperature prediction...

kindredspirit

kindredspirit____6.6____15.7___-4___121___91_____11.6____Sherkin Island.

sunflower3

Sunflower3_______ 5.0__ 13.2__ -6.1 __ 95 __ 90____ 9.5___ Valentia

John mac

JOhn mac_______ 5.5__ 13.7__ -3.1 __ 120 __ 90____ 10.1__shannon

Schadenfreudia

Schadenfreudia 5.0__ 13.0__ -5.1 __ 115 __ 100____ 9.2__Valentia

dasa29

Dasa29_______ 5.3__ 14.5__ -4.0 __ 115 __ 90____ 11.0___ Valentia

Joe Public

Joe Public______4.5__ 15.9__ -5.9 __ 89 __ 109___ 9.9 Sherkin

DOCARCH

DOCARCH______4.9__ 14.8__ -4.2 __ 110 __ 92___ 10.0 Valentia

200motels

200motels__________ 5.3__ 14.6__ -4.9 __ 111 __ 112____ 11.5- Sherkin

lostinashford

Lostinashford_______ 5.1__ 14.3__ -4.3 __ 112 __ 104____ 10 Shannon

Tae laidir

Tae laidir_______ 5.6__ 13.8__ -5.7 __ 118 __ 104____ 11.1 Sherkin

waterways

Oh dear, hope I get it right to post. This 1986 outfit is so awful! Makes me feel old and discriminated. Thought for a few minutes that my old C64 and Courier12 is back but where is the prompt? ♥

waterways _______ 5.7__ 14.3__ -5.8 __ 133 __ 95 ____ Shannon____13.2

Rikand

Rikand ...... 5.0 ..... 15.5 ...... -6.0 ...... 120 ...... 110 ...... 12.5 valentia

Lumi

Lumi _______ 5.5__ 14.3__ -4.7 __ 120 __ 93____ 8.9__Valentia

mrskinner

Skinner

---

> 5.2____13.9____-6.9____80%____99%____9.9____Valentia

M.T. Cranium

M.T. Cranium ______ 5.1 __ 12.5 __ -5.7 ___ 090 ___ 110 ___ 10.2 Johnstown C

rameire

Rameire___5.2___13.5___-3.0___110___86___7.0 valentia

dacogawa

Dacogawa ___ 5.3 __ 12.1 __ -6 ___ 100 ___ 90 ___ 8.9 Valentia

omicron

omicron_______ 6.3__ 14.0__ -4.0 __ 100 __ 095____ 12- Valentia

jd

JD_______ 5.0__ 14.6__ -5.9 __ 112 __ 106____ 11.3 - Sherkin

mickger844posts

mickger844posts_______ 4.5__ 14.5__ -4.1 __ 115 __ 95____ 8.5 Valentina

Jpmarn

Jpmarn______ 5.0__ 14.5__ -5.5 __ 85 __ 105____ 12.5 Shannon

M.T. Cranium

February 2016 -- Table of forecasts


FORECASTER __________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ____ MAX 14th, loc'm

kindredspirit ___________ 6.6 _ 15.7 _ --4.0 _ 121 _ 091 _____ 11.6 __ Sherkin
omicron________ (-4) ___ 6.3 _ 14.0 _ --4.0 _ 100 _ 095 _____ 12.0 __ Valentia
waterways _____________5.7 _ 14.3 _ --5.8 _ 133 _ 095 _____ 13.2 __ Shannon
Tae laidir ______________5.6 _ 13.8 _ --5.7 _ 118 _ 104 _____ 11.1 __ Sherkin
Lumi _________________ 5.5 _ 14.3 _ --4.7 _ 120 _ 093 ______ 8.9 __ Valentia
John mac______________ 5.5 _ 13.7 _ --3.1 _ 120 _ 090 _____ 10.1 __ Shannon
200motels_____________ 5.3 _ 14.6 _ --4.9 _ 111 _ 112 _____ 11.5 __ Sherkin
Dacogawa ___ (-3) ______5.3 _ 12.1 _ --6.0 _ 100 _ 090 ______ 8.9 __ Valentia
Dasa29________________5.3 _ 14.5 _ --4.0 _ 115 _ 090 _____ 11.0 __ Valentia

Norma L ______________ 5.3 _ 14.5 _ --7.0 _ 100 _ 100 _____ 10.5 __ Valentia

MrSkinner _____________ 5.2 _ 13.9 _ --6.9 _ 080 _ 099 ______ 9.9 __ Valentia
Pauldry________________5.2 _ 13.5 _ --5.1 _ 109 _ 110 _____ 11.0 __ Sherkin
Rameire ____ (-1) ______ 5.2 _ 13.5 _ --3.0 _ 110 _ 086 ______ 7.0 __ Valentia
Bsal__________________ 5.1 _ 14.6 _ --4.4 _ 115 _ 111 _____ 11.4 __ Sherkin

Con Sensus ____________5.1 _ 14.3 _ --5.1 _ 111 _ 100 _____ 10.2 __ Valentia

Lostinashford___________ 5.1 _ 14.3 _ --4.3 _ 112 _ 104 _____ 10.0 __ Shannon
M.T. Cranium ___________5.1 _ 12.5 _ --5.7 _ 090 _ 110 _____ 10.2 __ Johnstown
Rikand ________________ 5.0 _ 15.5 _ --6.0 _ 120 _ 110 _____ 12.5 __ Valentia
JD_________ (-4) _______5.0 _ 14.6 _ --5.9 _ 112 _ 106 _____ 11.3 __ Sherkin
Jpmarn _____ (-8) ______ 5.0 _ 14.5 _ --5.5 _ 085 _ 105 _____ 12.5 __ Shannon
Sunflower3_____________ 5.0 _ 13.2 _ --6.1 _ 095 _ 090 ______ 9.5 __ Valentia
Schadenfreudia _________ 5.0 _ 13.0 _ --5.1 _ 115 _ 100 ______ 9.2 __ Valentia
Timmyboy _____________ 4.9 _ 16.4 _ --6.3 _ 088 _ 104 _____ 13.9 __-Cork
DOCARCH _____________ 4.9 _ 14.8 _ --4.2 _ 110 _ 092 _____ 10.0 __ Valentia
sryanbruen ____________ 4.9 _ 13.8 _--12.2 _ 063 _ 114 ______ 8.5 __ Valentia
Joe Public______________ 4.5 _ 15.9 _ --5.9 _ 089 _ 109 ______ 9.9 __ Sherkin
mickger844posts__ (-5) __ 4.5 _ 14.5 _ --4.1 _ 115 _ 095 ______ 8.5 __ Valentia
_______________________________________________________________

The group consensus calls for a fairly normal February overall, perhaps a bit on the wet side of normal. It seems that all of our regular entrants managed to find a way to log on, and welcome to Timmyboy.

pauldry

13.3c Moore Park first Max

M.T. Cranium

Nice to see that boards is back to a more normal operation, at least on my old setup.

Meanwhile, the first week stats are in (mostly) and with some minor estimating required I have these numbers:

IMT is on 6.4, so far 1.2 above normal. That may shift to a negative value by the end of week two, estimating 4.9 by then.

PRC has averaged just about 150%, JC had to be estimated but most of its available numbers are on the wet days so I am confident that their average was around 125% if not more, so from that the overall average is 150%.

SUN would be 73% if we assume Casement matched Dublin's 101% which is mainly bolstered by a high total on one day that Casement is so far missing, so this estimate may be revisited when I find that data posted.

My guess is that neither max nor min have yet been established but max so far appears to be 13.3 C.

sryanbruen

I think Rameire will be the closest to the Valentine's Day max as according to M.T.'s forecast

M.T. Cranium

I noticed an hourly reading of -3 at Athenry at 0600h today without any chance to see earlier readings there or elsewhere, so would expect some movement of the MIN to be posted here tomorrow and possibly with more hourlies that go even lower.

M.T. Cranium

Confirmed MIN at -3.0 (Athenry on 10th). This may survive to Monday morning which looks capable of going close to -6 C.

IMT after ten days sits at 5.8 C (rounded up) and likely 5.6 after today.

SUN has been improving rapidly, already estimated to be above 100% now.

M.T. Cranium

Confirmed MIN at -3.0 (Athenry on 10th). This may survive to Monday morning which looks capable of going close to -6 C.

IMT after ten days sits at 5.8 C (rounded up) and likely 5.6 after today.

SUN has been improving rapidly, already estimated to be above 100% now.

M.T. Cranium

Several stations have reported -4 for the past few hours so we await the new exact value of the MIN.

Meanwhile, the bonus question is now settled, the highest reading was a chilly 7.6 at Valentia and it was 7.5 at Sherkin, another popular choice. I will be awarding two points for the correct location and one if you guessed Sherkin.

The three closest guesses, each worth eight more points, were Rameire 7.0, sryanbruen and mickger844posts both at 8.5. They all guessed Valentia, so they will all qualify for the double bonus of +2 and end up with 12 points.

The three next closest will all have seven points -- Lumi and Dacogawa each at 8.9 and Schadenfreudia at 9.2 -- they also guessed Valentia and will have one extra point for a total of 10 (7+2+1).

The rest of the field will have scores posted at the end of the month but you can work out yours by going in groups of three down the table, and adding either one or two if you had the right location or second best one Sherkin. There are no further double bonus points so the next best scoring possibility is 8 from 6+2.

The IMT is probably close to about 5.0 after all that cold weather and if we project forward through today, but I will provide a more accurate update from the second week of data this evening.

pauldry

Got to -4.5c n Casement but was -1.3c n Sligo town n Markree is often 4c lower than us on frosty nights so they may have got -5c

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks ...

IMT at 4.9 after week at 3.7 (today should push it to 4.6).

PRC remains close to 153% with the second week 155% of normal.

SUN has improved to 97% with this week at 112 and first week revised to 82%.

further reports on MIN to come, see Pauldry's previous post for details.

Tae laidir

Markee Castle & Casement dropped to -4.5 yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

After three weeks ...

The IMT stands at 5.2, after a week that averaged 5.4 C.

PRC continues to run high, 165% after the third week managed 188% of normal values.

SUN has settled right on normal (100%) after a week that was 106%.

I will speculate that the finishing values will be 5.0, 145% and 105%. The report after four weeks will not quite be "it" but almost. MAX is probably set now, MIN could be threatened.

pauldry

Already -4 tonight

-6 or 7 could be new min

Its even -1c here in sligo town already

Tae laidir

Mullingar -6 at 5am.

Ogimet suggesting -5.9

M.T. Cranium

The IMT was 4.90 after 24 days and I suspect 4.74 after 25 days (the 25th would need to average about 2 C to get to that value. It will probably creep back up closer to 5.0 to end the month but there will be a lot of good IMT guesses looking at the table. And confirmed, --5.9 C at Mullingar the other day.

March forecast thread is open now, bonus is for maximum on 17th (I feel like an idiot telling you what day that is, but this is probably the first year that I haven't )

John mac

gona be hard next month , had temps of 25 to 30 the last 2 weeks .:D

M.T. Cranium

You may get one more day of that this summer.

sryanbruen

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

You may get one more day of that this summer.

Or a few if it's one of the better like me and you say

M.T. Cranium

With one day left, here's an update through four weeks of this leap year February ...

IMT stands at a chilly 4.70 after a week that averaged well below normal at 3.24 C. As today looks no higher than 6 you can expect the month to finish on 4.7 rounded off, but a slight chance of 4.8 being the final number.

PRC is down a bit to 138% thanks to a dry week (except on the south coast) that registered only 59% on average. That will likely finish above 140% as today will provide roughly four times the normal daily amount.

SUN has surged ahead to 116% with a week that had 162% of normal sunshine. Today's generally dull outcome will drop that to 113% (will check the MS and this tracking may not be as accurate as the other measures, so a finish between 110 and 120 per cent can be expected).

Noted that Sunday's lowest minimum of -4.4 C at Markree did not shift the previous low of -5.9, so it would appear we have all our primary stats available for at least an estimate of scoring.

M.T. Cranium

Provisional scoring for February 2016

These scores will be confirmed on Wednesday with any revisions made to the table at that time.


FORECASTER __________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN____Bonus _____ TOTALS

Schadenfreudia _________23 _ 18 _ 12 _ 10*_ 08 ____ 10 ______ 81
Sunflower3_____________23 _ 20 _ 18 _ 05*_ 06 ____ 08 ______ 80
Tae laidir ______________17 _ 14 _ 18 _ 10*_ 09 ____ 04 ______ 72
Pauldry________________21 _ 17 _ 12 _ 07*_ 10 ____ 04 ______ 71
M.T. Cranium ___________22 _ 13 _ 18 _ 04*_ 10 ____ 04 ______ 71
Rikand ________________23 _ 00 _ 19 _ 12*_ 10 ____ 04 ______ 68
JD_________ (-4) _______23 _ 06 _ 20 _ 10*_ 09 ____ 04 __ 72-4=68
Dacogawa ___ (-3) ______20 _ 09 _ 19 _ 06*_ 06 ____ 10 __ 70-3=67
waterways _____________16 _ 09 _ 19 _ 14*_ 07 ____ 01 ______ 66

Con Sensus ____________22 _ 09 _ 12 _ 09*_ 08 ____ 06 ______ 66

Lumi _________________ 18 _ 09 _ 08 _ 12*_ 06 ____ 10 ______ 63
Rameire ____ (-1) ______ 21 _ 17 _ 00 _ 09*_ 05 ____ 12 __ 64-1=63
Joe Public______________ 22 _ 00 _ 20 _ 03*_ 09 ____ 07 ______ 61
MrSkinner _____________ 21 _ 13 _ 10 _ 01*_ 08 ____ 08 ______ 61
sryanbruen ____________ 24 _ 14 _ 00 _ 00*_ 10 ____ 12 ______ 60
200motels_____________ 20 _ 06 _ 10 _ 09*_ 10 ____ 04 ______ 59
Bsal__________________ 22 _ 06 _ 05 _ 10*_ 10 ____ 04 ______ 57
Lostinashford___________ 22 _ 09 _ 02 _ 10*_ 09 ____ 05 ______ 57
John mac______________ 18 _ 15 _ 00 _ 12*_ 06 ____ 05 ______ 56

Norma L ______________ 20 _ 07 _ 09 _ 06*_ 08 ____ 06 ______ 56

mickger844posts__ (-5) __ 22 _ 07 _ 02 _ 09*_ 07 ____ 12 __ 59-5=54
Timmyboy _____________ 24 _ 00 _ 16 _ 03*_ 09 ____ 01 ______ 53
DOCARCH _____________ 24 _ 04 _ 03 _ 09*_ 06 ____ 07 ______ 53
Jpmarn _____ (-8) ______ 23 _ 07 _ 16 _ 02*_ 09 ____ 02 __ 59-8=51
Dasa29________________20 _ 07 _ 01 _ 10*_ 06 ____ 05 ______ 49
omicron________ (-4) ___ 10 _ 12 _ 01 _ 06*_ 07 ____ 04 __ 40-4=36
kindredspirit ___________ 07 _ 00 _ 01 _ 13*_ 06 ____ 04 ______ 31
_______________________________________________________________

* PRC scores were adjusted by minimum progression

The above table will be confirmed or adjusted on Wednesday 2nd and the annual scoring will be updated, and also the winter four-seasons points will be awarded.

Schadenfreudia

Can you not just leave it like that?

M.T. Cranium

Oops, we all missed a warmer reading of 14.1 C at Moorepark on the 21st. Meanwhile some other confirmed data have no bearing on the provisional scoring: PRC was actually 154% and SUN was 112%. MIN confirmed as --5.9 C.

So here is the reworked scoring table with the MAX scores adjusted. My apologies to anyone who bought champagne etc.

Final scoring for February 2016


FORECASTER __________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN____Bonus _____ TOTALS

JD_________ (-4) _______23 _ 15 _ 20 _ 10*_ 09 ____ 04 __ 81-4=77
Rikand ________________23 _ 08 _ 19 _ 12*_ 10 ____ 04 ______ 76
Tae laidir ______________17 _ 18 _ 18 _ 10*_ 09 ____ 04 ______ 76
waterways _____________16 _ 18 _ 19 _ 14*_ 07 ____ 01 ______ 75

Con Sensus ____________22 _ 18 _ 12 _ 09*_ 08 ____ 06 ______ 75

Lumi _________________ 18 _ 18 _ 08 _ 12*_ 06 ____ 10 ______ 72
Schadenfreudia _________23 _ 09 _ 12 _ 10*_ 08 ____ 10 ______ 72
Sunflower3_____________23 _ 11 _ 18 _ 05*_ 06 ____ 08 ______ 71
Pauldry________________21 _ 15 _ 12 _ 07*_ 10 ____ 04 ______ 69
200motels_____________ 20 _ 15 _ 10 _ 09*_ 10 ____ 04 ______ 68
Bsal__________________ 22 _ 15 _ 05 _ 10*_ 10 ____ 04 ______ 66
Lostinashford___________ 22 _ 18 _ 02 _ 10*_ 09 ____ 05 ______ 66
MrSkinner _____________ 21 _ 18 _ 10 _ 01*_ 08 ____ 08 ______ 66

Norma L ______________ 20 _ 16 _ 09 _ 06*_ 08 ____ 06 ______ 65

Joe Public______________22 _ 02 _ 20 _ 03*_ 09 ____ 07 ______ 63
sryanbruen ____________ 24 _ 17 _ 00 _ 00*_ 10 ____ 12 ______ 63
mickger844posts__ (-5) __ 22 _ 16 _ 02 _ 09*_ 07 ____ 12 __ 68-5=63
M.T. Cranium ___________22 _ 04 _ 18 _ 04*_ 10 ____ 04 ______ 62
DOCARCH _____________ 24 _ 13 _ 03 _ 09*_ 06 ____ 07 ______ 62
Jpmarn _____ (-8) ______ 23 _ 16 _ 16 _ 02*_ 09 ____ 02 __ 68-8=60
Rameire ____ (-1) ______ 21 _ 14 _ 00 _ 09*_ 05 ____ 12 __ 61-1=60
Dacogawa ___ (-3) ______20 _ 00 _ 19 _ 06*_ 06 ____ 10 __ 61-3=58
Dasa29________________20 _ 16 _ 01 _ 10*_ 06 ____ 05 ______ 58
John mac______________ 18 _ 16 _ 00 _ 12*_ 06 ____ 05 ______ 57
Timmyboy _____________ 24 _ 00 _ 16 _ 03*_ 09 ____ 01 ______ 53
omicron________ (-4) ___ 10 _ 19 _ 01 _ 06*_ 07 ____ 04 __ 47-4=43
kindredspirit ___________ 07 _ 04 _ 01 _ 13*_ 06 ____ 04 ______ 35
_______________________________________________________________

* PRC scores were adjusted by minimum progression

So in the final analysis, it's congrats to JD, Rikand, Tae laidir and waterways who managed to stay ahead of (or even with) Con Sensus. The higher MAX boosted about three quarters of the scores, left a few static and dropped a few, overall it has made for a tighter finish. The annual race and a report on the winter four seasons sub-contest will be up next in about an hour.

M.T. Cranium

Annual scoring for 2016 and Winter Four Seasons points awarded

FORECASTER __________ Jan _ Feb ___ TOTAL ______ Dec ___ winter total __ points

Tae laidir _______________86 _ 76 ___ 162 _________ 43 _____ 205 _____ 6
waterways _____________ 75 _ 75 ___ 150 _________ 56 _____ 206 _____ 7
MrSkinner ______________83 _ 66 ___ 149 _________ 52 _____ 201 _____ 5

Con Sensus ____________ 73 _ 75 ___ 148 _________ 47 _____ 195 _____ 2

JD____________________ 69 _ 77 ___ 146 _________ 43 _____ 189 _____ 1
Sunflower3 _____________72 _ 71 ___ 143 _________ 47 _____ 190 _____ 1
Lumi __________________71 _ 72 ___ 143 _________ 49 _____ 192 _____ 2
Rikand ________________ 67 _ 76 ___ 143 _________ 69 _____ 212 _____10
mickger844posts ________ 78 _ 63 ___ 141 _________ 58 _____ 199 _____ 4
Schadenfreudia _________ 65 _ 72 ___ 137 _________ 45 _____ 182 _____ 1
lostinashford ___________ 69 _ 66 ___ 135 _________ 61 _____ 196 _____ 3
Bsal __________________ 65 _ 66 ___ 131 _________ 44 _____ 175 _____ -
john mac ______________ 72 _ 57 ___ 129 _________ 33 _____ 162 _____ -
Rameire _______________ 69 _ 60 ___ 129 _________ 37 _____ 166 _____ -
Dasa29 ________________66 _ 58 ___ 124 _________ 41 _____ 165 _____ -
Jpmarn ________________64 _ 60 ___ 124 _________ 31 _____ 155 _____ -
Pauldry________________ 53 _ 69 ___ 122 _________ 46 _____ 168 _____ -
omicron _______________ 76 _ 43 ___ 119 _________ 59 _____ 178 _____ -

Norma L ______________ 52 _ 65 ___ 117 _________ 29 _____ 146 _____ -

DOCARCH _____________ 53 _ 62 ___ 115 _________ 36 _____ 151 _____ -
200motels _____________ 46 _ 68 ___ 114 _________ 51 _____ 165 _____ -
Dacogawa _____________ 52 _ 58 ___ 110 _________ 37 _____ 147 _____ -
M.T. Cranium ___________46 _ 62 ___ 108 _________ 49 _____ 157 _____ -
Joe Public ______________28 _ 63 ____ 91 _________ 41 _____ 132 _____ -
Sryanbruen ____________ 27 _ 63 ____ 90 _________ 53 _____ 143 _____ -
Timmyboy ______________-- _ 53 ____ 53
kindredspirit ____________ -- _ 35 ____ 35 _________ 50 ______ 85 _____ -
________________________________________________________

Well done Tae laidir, waterways and MrSkinner for a fast start to 2016, and to Rikand whose high score in December anchored him to the four seasons top points.

Schadenfreudia

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

My apologies to anyone who bought champagne etc.

One suspected one had not performed as well as one's provisional results indicated

M.T. Cranium

It's unusual that nobody in our group notices a max or min, in my case I recall being on a bit of a road trip around 21st and 22nd so I probably didn't check as much as I normally might. Anyway, I also took the full hit of nine lost points on that one. On to March ...