Winter Storm Jonas (E. USA)

bnt

I've been seeing reports of models predicting a storm for several days now, and the models are firming up. Weather Underground has coverage here, while the Washington Post is predicting two feet of snow coverage in the DC area.

Key points:

• This is long-duration event, with snow forecast for 36 hours or so.
• Models are converging on storm onset in the noon-to-5 p.m. period on Friday.
• Conditions are the worst after dark Friday continuing through Saturday night.
• Thunder snow is possible Saturday.
• Winds may gust to 40 mph on Saturday, causing whiteout conditions and some blowing and drifting snow. Strong winds east of the District toward the bay.
• Biggest forecast uncertainty is near and especially southeast of the District, where there remains some potential for a dry slot that would interrupt the snow and potentially result in a brief changeover from snow to sleet, cutting down accumulations.

[Metro trains and buses will close all weekend]

If you're flying to that area of the USA this weekend, onward travel could be a problem.

sparrowcar

Looks serious enough.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-35374741

Snowfall predictions
◾24ins (60cm) - NE Virginia
◾20ins - Washington DC
◾12-18ins - Philadelphia
◾14ins - Kentucky
◾10ins - New York City and Long Island

maquiladora

NWS maximum potential snowfall map currently shows 32 inches for Washington DC. The highest ever recorded there over a 3 days period is 28 inches.

yorlum11

Anyone want to follow it through out the day you can on Earth cam.

A bit of lamp post watching in Belmont, NC http://www.earthcam.com/usa/northcarolina/belmont/?cam=belmont

As it moves north just find cam location here http://www.earthcam.com/network/

Follow progress also on accuweather radar http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/virginia/weather-radar?play=1

Could be historic, especially for DC

Missymoohaa

yorlum11 wrote: »

Anyone want to follow it through out the day you can on Earth cam.

A bit of lamp post watching in Belmont, NC http://www.earthcam.com/usa/northcarolina/belmont/?cam=belmont

As it moves north just find cam location here http://www.earthcam.com/network/

Follow progress also on accuweather radar http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/virginia/weather-radar?play=1

Could be historic, especially for DC

Thanks very much for those links Yorlum, in the first one it's snowing at the moment it will be very interesting to keep checking in to see it's progress.
When we can't get this weather ourselves it's good to watch it unfold in another country.

Missymoohaa

Also just a question, does anybody know of any similar sites to this one in Washington DC where I could follow a discussion of the weather as it progresses today? Slow day in work, obviously :P;)

Or if any of our boardsies are living in/visiting Washington DC at the moment, if they could post updates and/or pictures, I'm sure the rest of us would be very appreciative.

Mafra

Am I right in thinking that much of the US had unseasonably warm winter temperatures until quite recently?

maquiladora

RobertKK

Mafra wrote: »

Am I right in thinking that much of the US had unseasonably warm winter temperatures until quite recently?

In December in New York on the warmest days the temperatures were in the low 20'sC.
When they should be wrapped up to stay war, they were in t shirts and shorts.

Worst affected areas by the snow storm will get 3 feet of snow according to CNBC.

Gandhi

Mafra wrote: »

Am I right in thinking that much of the US had unseasonably warm winter temperatures until quite recently?

Christmas Eve was shorts and T-shirt weather here (just outside Philadelphia) but the last few weeks have been very cold. Struggling to get above freezing point during the day, and regularly getting down to -10C at night. With the ground so cold, the snow should stick.

nacho libre

RobertKK wrote: »

the lucky areas affected by the snow storm will get 3 feet of snow according to CNBC.

I have a family member, who does not like snow at all, in the area predicted to get over a foot of snow. How i wish we could experience such an event in this country. It is good to see heavy snowfall, but it's just not the same as witnessing it at home

Wanderer78

any good live news streams following this? thank you

Mafra

Gandhi wrote: »

Christmas Eve was shorts and T-shirt weather here (just outside Philadelphia) but the last few weeks have been very cold. Struggling to get above freezing point during the day, and regularly getting down to -10C at night. With the ground so cold, the snow should stick.

Wow unbelievable to go from one such extreme to another so quickly! I'm so jealous. I know it's going to be very hard on a lot of people too though. Feel a little guilty about that when people struggle and suffer. It's easy for those who have means and are younger.
That said my eyes will be wide watching the footage. Sounds like my kind of fantasy.

maquiladora

Wanderer78 wrote: »

any good live news streams following this? thank you

Local news in Baltimore http://www.wbaltv.com/nowcast

up for anything

Another live stream:



Watch a blizzard pummel Washington, D.C., from Paul Ryan's balcony live stream

tylercollins

4 live streams here https://tvnweather.com/live/

bnt

Overnight snowfall estimates from NOAA HRRR:

wicklowdub

BBC weather has said this storm will reach British Isles by Tuesday, any potential for an event?

Lucreto

Been watching a Webcam of Time Square and the poor city workers trying to clear the paths.

He did a good job when I checked 2 hours ago but now I see he wasted his time.

Gonzo

wicklowdub wrote: »

BBC weather has said this storm will reach British Isles by Tuesday, any potential for an event?

The only potential we will get from it is mild and rain, we are back locked into the same pattern of muck that we suffered for months although hopefully the rain wont be as bad as what we had during the first half of winter.

bnt

If you're looking for a technical discussion of the storm, the NOAA Storm Prediction Center has a good one here. Simple version: warm moist air from the Caribbean is being pulled north and pushed on to the East Coast by an anticyclone that's somewhere over Newport News at the moment. When that moist air rides over a layer of cold air, the moisture condenses in to snow at the boundary and drops out:

SPECIAL 06Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM WASHINGTON-DULLES AND NEW YORK CITY SAMPLED A SATURATED THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR HEAVY SNOW WITH ESSENTIALLY A SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER AROUND 500-600 MB AND AN AGGREGATION-CONDUCIVE NEARLY ISOTHERMAL THERMAL LAYER BETWEEN 700-850 MB. COLLOCATION OF AMPLE MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND WEAK STATIC STABILITY...WHICH IS LARGELY RELATED TO THE NORTHEASTWARD-SURGING MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT PER WATER IMAGERY...WILL SUPPORT MULTIPLE WSW/ENE-ORIENTED INTENSE BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW.

JCX BXC

Anywhere to get some recent pictures of the ongoing event? Tried googling but to no avail

bnt

Some pictures from today are here, such as this from Washington DC:



There's a report of drivers stranded on I-75 in Kentucky overnight, due to ice.

HighLine

Good timelapse below from The Whitehouse overnight.

https://twitter.com/NBCNightlyNews/status/690927601989210112

Mafra

bnt wrote: »

Some pictures from today are here, such as this from Washington DC:



There's a report of drivers stranded on I-75 in Kentucky overnight, due to ice.

Omg that's like porn!
Or can I say that here!?!

RobertKK

Thank God we are getting away with nothing very bad like that, so far 8 people have died from the blizzard.

HighLine

Some of the sights on these storm chaser cameras show an amazing amount of snow. Check out the one at Hagerstown right now :eek:

https://tvnweather.com/live

Tactical

bnt wrote: »

Some pictures from today are here, such as this from Washington DC:



There's a report of drivers stranded on I-75 in Kentucky overnight, due to ice.

That is something else.

One day I hope to be in the right place at the right time to experience something like that. It would be utterly amazing.

Tactical

HighLine wrote: »

Some of the sights on these storm chaser cameras show an amazing amount of snow. Check out the one at Hagerstown right now :eek:

https://tvnweather.com/live

Fantastic to see.

If I ever win the lotto......

jamo2oo9

Travel ban in NYC according to CNN.

bnt

The BBC now has a nice photo gallery, here.

NYC travel ban was from 14:30 local, I believe - 1/2h ago. There's more snow to come overnight.

power pants

will get dublin get any of this soon?

Wanderer78

power pants wrote: »

will get dublin get any of this soon?

in the form of rain, yes, on tuesday

nacho libre

http://abcnews.go.com/Lifestyle/national-zoos-giant-panda-tian-tian-enjoying-snow/story?id=36470580

A panda, named Tian, is clearly loving the snow in Washington. I would be too if i was there, Tian.

Reckless Abandonment

RobertKK wrote: »

Thank God we are getting away with nothing very bad like that, so far 8 people have died from the blizzard.

Approx 86 people a day die on US roads. Not to sound disrespectful but I wonder could a storm like this actually reduce road deaths . As in less people on the roads. But the media make more of it

youreadthat

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

Approx 86 people a day die on US roads. Not to sound disrespectful but I wonder could a storm like this actually reduce road deaths . As in less people on the roads. But the media make more of it

I doubt it helps much because NE America has the best public transport anyway and most of the population of the USA aren't being affected.

bnt

Back in 1999, I landed in Toronto the day after they got hit with about 16" of snow. The newspaper headlines were all about that, but most things seemed to be working: the highways were clear, the subway was running, but the snow had drifted a lot and the streets had to be plowed regularly. I loved it - it was literally the first time in my life i had seen more than a few snowflake, having spent most of it up to that point in either South Africa or London. The locals were not quite as appreciative.

RobertKK

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

Approx 86 people a day die on US roads. Not to sound disrespectful but I wonder could a storm like this actually reduce road deaths . As in less people on the roads. But the media make more of it

Death toll now is at least 17 dead from the storm.

They still are weather related deaths, and it is why travel bans and people are being told to stay indoors, and in Washington DC, they have volunteers to help people unable to clear their driveways.
It is not uncommon for people to get heart related problems and to die while shoveling snow in very cold weather.

I would love to see a major snowstorm, but not in Ireland. After December 2010 I know the state becomes near non existent as you are left to defend for yourself, and the only bit of the state that will come to one's aid when snowed in is the army in an emergency.
Back in the 1980s when the country was poorer I remember the snow ploughs came out to rural roads.

New York is expected to get over 30 inches of snow.
Parts of West Virginia got 40 inches of snow.

Patty O Furniture

Mafra wrote: »

Am I right in thinking that much of the US had unseasonably warm winter temperatures until quite recently?

I remember watching CNN/NBC News on CNBC, that tourists were shocked to see no snow & walking around in t-shirts+shorts in 16c

Gandhi wrote: »

Christmas Eve was shorts and T-shirt weather here (just outside Philadelphia) but the last few weeks have been very cold. Struggling to get above freezing point during the day, and regularly getting down to -10C at night. With the ground so cold, the snow should stick.

Was watching CNN Fri nite & all day today, Baltimore was expected to get around about 30" of snow

Tactical wrote: »

That is something else.

One day I hope to be in the right place at the right time to experience something like that. It would be utterly amazing.

TV is on in the background & CNN happened to chat to a couple from Ireland who came over for a visit & was shocked to see the snow, but when asked if they have plans for the day, they remained aloof & said take a walk in the snow & go for dinner & a drink, I am Irish he said

bnt wrote: »

Some pictures from today are here, such as this from Washington DC:



There's a report of drivers stranded on I-75 in Kentucky overnight, due to ice.

I heard this fella on CNN Jim Ferry Basketball coach, talking bout being stranded for 13 hrs there & going over to other coaches with kids, keeping them calm & had also mentioned that the team had been away on longer trips including to Ireland last year, i was thinking as soon as i saw the name Ferry, Ireland may come into it?

up for anything

In the photo you're all quoting that shows the guy clearing snow off his car - why? Where does he think he's going to be driving in knee deep snow?

GSF

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

Approx 86 people a day die on US roads. Not to sound disrespectful but I wonder could a storm like this actually reduce road deaths . As in less people on the roads. But the media make more of it

Less heatstroke too and no forest wildfires. Lol. Looks likes someone's trying to spin for snow to get better tv coverage.

WheatenBriar

Those are snow drifts mostly which in gale force winds will obviously bury cars
Washingtons three airports only measured at most 30 inches which is a lot alright,two and a half feet,biggest amount ever at Baltimore, 2nd and third biggest at Dulles and Reagan
But the drifts in photos are not indicative of the amount that fell

In the January 1982 Blizzard here in Ireland by the way,drifts in the wicklow mountains buried trees, yes trees in the wicklow mountains and at modest altitude where people lived
Those drifts reached 30 to 40 feet high and that was here in little old Ireland

bnt

I saw on CNN that the unofficial snowfall figure for New York's Central Park is 26.8", which (if confirmed) will break the previous record from 1869. The Mayor of Washington DC has called out the National Guard to help with the clearup, including helping people who may be stranded.

I agree that that picture includes the effects of drifting, but drifting always happens and is part of the impact that the snow has. It means that snowfall figures like the one from Dulles Airport are inevitably an indirect proxy measure of the impact of the storm, but you know we'll also hear about the cost in $ Billions ...

HighLine

up for anything wrote: »

In the photo you're all quoting that shows the guy clearing snow off his car - why? Where does he think he's going to be driving in knee deep snow?

Did you ever try clear nice fresh, dry and fluffy snow? Nice and easy right. Wait a few days when it becomes compacted and the bottom layer turns to ice... not so easy.

It's like when it does actually snow over here (like 2010)... roads were left unploughed, it then becomes compacted and melts a bit forming an ice layer, then it snows more and then finally the councils send the ploughs out a few days later who can do nothing about the ice layer.

HighLine

Here is another timelapse. Wow! Just wow! :eek::eek::eek::eek:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJrZFiZcIgs

RobertKK

https://twitter.com/weeddude/status/691029959385677824

I shiver at the thought of doing that.

RobertKK

HighLine wrote: »

Here is another timelapse. Wow! Just wow! :eek::eek::eek::eek:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJrZFiZcIgs

You can see in that video where the wind picked up and drifting started.

JCX BXC

HighLine wrote: »

Did you ever try clear nice fresh, dry and fluffy snow? Nice and easy right. Wait a few days when it becomes compacted and the bottom layer turns to ice... not so easy.

It's like when it does actually snow over here (like 2010)... roads were left unploughed, it then becomes compacted and melts a bit forming an ice layer, then it snows more and then finally the councils send the ploughs out a few days later who can do nothing about the ice layer.

Temps are to pick up alot over the next few days though.

WheatenBriar

Carnacalla wrote: »

Temps are to pick up alot over the next few days though.

Aye,but I remember being in Washington a few years ago and it was raining torrentially on top of a foot and a half of frozen snow and it was not moving, the rain was pooling on top of it
A continental climate can freeze snow at night very hard like cement

WheatenBriar

Jfk :eek:

https://twitter.com/tristateweather/status/690972859754246144

Lirange

Those are snow drifts mostly which in gale force winds will obviously bury cars
Washingtons three airports only measured at most 30 inches which is a lot alright,two and a half feet,biggest amount ever at Baltimore, 2nd and third biggest at Dulles and Reagan. But the drifts in photos are not indicative of the amount that fell. In the January 1982 Blizzard here in Ireland by the way,drifts in the wicklow mountains buried trees, yes trees in the wicklow mountains and at modest altitude where people lived.Those drifts reached 30 to 40 feet high and that was here in little old Ireland

That was up in the Wicklow Mts. Over 30 yrs ago. This happened in middle of Manhattan and other major cities. You can try and downplay this and big up past events "in little old Ireland" all you like. But it's a bit silly to minimise the scale of this event.

And you just had the temerity to type only and 30 inches in the same sentence without framing the only in quotes. But yeah those softies across the pond making a fuss. Nothing like the salt of the earth weather steeled Irish who just get on with it so.