Beef 2016

Fireside Solicitor

Any predictions for beef 2016?

Lot of talk here over the Christmas about

Larry's plan for total domination and licking his lips at ifa mess
new trade deals with South America dragging factory prices back to 3.00
Too many calves hitting the system
Export volumes continued decline
Prices to fall badly backend 2016
Bps cuts kicking in

Is there any positives?

tismesoitis

Surely there could be intervention above €3 / kg??

Cassidy2

Fireside Solicitor wrote: »

Any predictions for beef 2016?

Lot of talk here over the Christmas about

Larry's plan for total domination and licking his lips at ifa mess
new trade deals with South America dragging factory prices back to 3.00
Too many calves hitting the system
Export volumes continued decline
Prices to fall badly backend 2016
Bps cuts kicking in

Is there any positives?

Well clough what you think of that.it's a good job I didn't say that

bogman_bass

tismesoitis wrote: »

Surely there could be intervention above €3 / kg??

Intervention is a cross eu program. Romanian R3 bullocks are at 1.73 kg Latvian beef around the same. You would do well to get 1.80/kg intervention price and it would probably have to be less

At 3.00/kg you would probably have half the Romanian herd killed overnight

epfff

Rise slowly in March
Fall slowly from early july to a bottom of 350 for 12 months or so

Grass men to drive the price of cattle mad in a few sales March/April

CloughCasey1

Cassidy2 wrote: »

Well clough what you think of that.it's a good job I didn't say that

Tis Cass. 3euro would be a disaster. I think it will bottom out at 3.60 but sure we don't really know. With IFA fooked and lame duck Ag minister, Larry is more the dictator than ever. If I was in his shoes I'd be the same I guess. Business is business at the end of the day and when you have the majority control of the market and have plenty of money to sweeten lads up then you can set what price you want and the other factories will follow suit.

CloughCasey1

I can see a lot of PT lads pulling the plug on beef!

Cassidy2

CloughCasey1 wrote: »

I can see a lot of PT lads pulling the plug on beef!

And full time.steer beef will fall to 3.4 kg

Bullocks

Do ye think the state of the IFA will make much odds on factory prices next year ? Sure aren't we all saying they were no help all along anyhow and that they were having their money collected by larry so end up a bit obliged to him .
At the end of the day there were more calves born last year and less exported so there will be extra beef for killing this year and next year .
Its up to each and every one of us not to pay more than we can afford for calves / cattle . There is no point out bidding exporters for cattle and then crying when they're finished that there is a glut and beef prices here are bad .
I'd like to see Bord Bia coming up with a few markets for us the flutes , isn't that what they should be doing

blue5000

What price will dairy calves be this spring?

Reggie.

blue5000 wrote: »

What price will dairy calves be this spring?

That'll be the thing?

CloughCasey1

blue5000 wrote: »

What price will dairy calves be this spring?

I don't think they will be as dirt cheap as lads make out.

CloughCasey1

Bullocks wrote: »

Do ye think the state of the IFA will make much odds on factory prices next year ? Sure aren't we all saying they were no help all along anyhow and that they were having their money collected by larry so end up a bit obliged to him .
At the end of the day there were more calves born last year and less exported so there will be extra beef for killing this year and next year .
Its up to each and every one of us not to pay more than we can afford for calves / cattle . There is no point out bidding exporters for cattle and then crying when they're finished that there is a glut and beef prices here are bad .
I'd like to see Bord Bia coming up with a few markets for us the flutes , isn't that what they should be doing

It shouldn't Bullocks but when the cat is away the mice will always play puck. I agree on paying silly money on weanlings is cracked anything I bought here all orange chx or blood red lmx cost between 620 and 740. All well made and will leave me a few quid no matter how things go next yr. As for calves, I don't mind paying 50 extra for a good well made hex as with anything a good start is half the battle. I looked at some weanlings hex and aax in some places late last yr, with a view of buying these instead of sucks and they weren't even close to my own reared sucks in weight at same age. If you buy poorish calves that's what you will have and no amount of fresh grass or meal will make him into a good animal. Bord bia and Ag minister have been all soundbites for last 18mts all mouth and no results.

Dawggone

CloughCasey1 wrote: »

I don't think they will be as dirt cheap as lads make out.

Well they are dirt cheap on the continent, so that will put live exporters out of the market. With all the extra dairy cows in place it should mean a buyers market with plenty choice...

stretch film

Dawggone wrote: »

Well they are dirt cheap on the continent, so that will put live exporters out of the market. With all the extra dairy cows in place it should mean a buyers market with plenty choice...

So is the b/w bull calf looking up the barrel of a gun at this stage on the continent.

Dawggone

stretch film wrote: »

So is the b/w bull calf looking up the barrel of a gun at this stage on the continent.

A resounding yes!
With prices ranging from €5 to €30 per head and a free knackery service, it's inevitable.

stretch film

Dawggone wrote: »

A resounding yes!
With prices ranging from €5 to €30 per head and a free knackery service, it's inevitable.

Not something to lift the spirit of anyone with dairy bulls to sell over next couple of months so. Might lighten the mood for the beef lads in longer term.

Larry has it sown up whether the animal is dead or alive when you farm this far south . He is pretty much the only rendering option with knackery charges of €25 /calf last year blamed on his upping the charges .

Puts a novel spin on the term "floor in the market" .
Take the calf and heres a fiver for luck

Dawggone

stretch film wrote: »

Not something to lift the spirit of anyone with dairy bulls to sell over next couple of months so. Might lighten the mood for the beef lads in longer term.

Larry has it sown up whether the animal is dead or alive when you farm this far south . He is pretty much the only rendering option with knackery charges of €25 /calf last year blamed on his upping the charges .

Puts a novel spin on the term "floor in the market" .
Take the calf and heres a fiver for luck

It won't come to that Stretch...still plenty punters in the country that go cross eyed at the sign of a young calf!
They'll pay top dollar for the calves and barricade meat factories when their dream doesn't come true...

Reggie.

CloughCasey1 wrote: »

I don't think they will be as dirt cheap as lads make out.

Agreed

Reggie.

Dawggone wrote: »

It won't come to that Stretch...still plenty punters in the country that go cross eyed at the sign of a young calf!
They'll pay top dollar for the calves and barricade meat factories when their dream doesn't come true...

Unfortunately that's so true. Amazed at he short memories of some lads at times

stretch film

Dawggone wrote: »

It won't come to that Stretch...still plenty punters in the country that go cross eyed at the sign of a young calf!
They'll pay top dollar for the calves and barricade meat factories when their dream doesn't come true...

Ahh shur I know that .

Usually what I have for sale is the product of concentrating on easy calving and what the heifer will hopefully bring in the future . Nothing new there but usually means its the boat or nowt for my lads .

Putting the auto feeder on ice

Dawggone

Reggie. wrote: »

Amazed at he short memories of some lads at times

+1.

To balance I should add that back in the late '70's (I think), I remember buying calves for 50p and when I came out of the mart people had dumped calves that they couldn't sell into my trailer.
Two or more years later they were worth a fortune....

Anyone here remember those years?

Dawggone

stretch film wrote: »

Ahh shur I know that .

Usually what I have for sale is the product of concentrating on easy calving and what the heifer will hopefully bring in the future . Nothing new there but usually means its the boat or nowt for my lads .

Putting the auto feeder on ice

In fairness they are only a byproduct...

I wouldn't hold off on the auto feeder. Best bit of kit on the farm.

Bullocks

Dawggone wrote: »

+1.

To balance I should add that back in the late '70's (I think), I remember buying calves for 50p and when I came out of the mart people had dumped calves that they couldn't sell into my trailer.
Two or more years later they were worth a fortune....

Anyone here remember those years?

No but i remember the father telling a similar story about trying to sell calves in the mart , couldn't sell them and had a couple put in the trailer while his own were in the ring .
He reckoned 8 fat bullocks bought a tractor for them a few years later aswell .

stretch film

Dawggone wrote: »

In fairness they are only a byproduct...

I wouldn't hold off on the auto feeder. Best bit of kit on the farm.

Boss man would be very put out if I did.

Would need to upgrade housing to accomodate one tbf . Lots of batches in lots of houses atm. Healthy as fleas in fairness but more time consuming than it needs to be .

Limestone Cowboy

Dawggone wrote: »

+1.

To balance I should add that back in the late '70's (I think), I remember buying calves for 50p and when I came out of the mart people had dumped calves that they couldn't sell into my trailer.
Two or more years later they were worth a fortune....

Anyone here remember those years?

Often heard the auld fella telling me the exact same story here!

barnaman

Dawgone you seem to have alot of farming experience; is the suckler herd a thing of the past? Seems heading that way. Have one myself mostly LMX prob nearly 75%pure and I finish to beef. The demand here is for AAX and HEX for the supermarkets. The dairy lads can easily supply that. Looking back at 2015 and cows are expensive to keep just for a calf.

barnaman

Oddly you could buy a house for 15 bullocks in the mid 70s my father said!

Bullocks

barnaman wrote: »

Dawgone you seem to have alot of farming experience; is the suckler herd a thing of the past? Seems heading that way. Have one myself mostly LMX prob nearly 75%pure and I finish to beef. The demand here is for AAX and HEX for the supermarkets. The dairy lads can easily supply that. Looking back at 2015 and cows are expensive to keep just for a calf.

Around here years ago sucklers were usually double or treble sucked so would've been more efficient than what we have now . Any of the single sucks would've been extensive out on the hills and not needed much minding .

barnaman

yeah we seem to be going backwards! We always had sucklers and would have been he and shortorn orginally and some AA and various crosses with them; 1960s and before was a pedigree hereford. anway even I rember in the 80/90s as a gooson we double sucked and the calfs were kept seperate from cows. But by early 90s essentilly gone towards all contintental and getting a LM to suck a calf that is not her own is impossible although at least they are not as mental as they used to be. Personally thinking selling my herd as too much hardship and going all store cattle. Can work PT that way too.

Dawggone

barnaman wrote: »

Dawgone you seem to have alot of farming experience; is the suckler herd a thing of the past? Seems heading that way. Have one myself mostly LMX prob nearly 75%pure and I finish to beef. The demand here is for AAX and HEX for the supermarkets. The dairy lads can easily supply that. Looking back at 2015 and cows are expensive to keep just for a calf.

Was the suckler cow ever a viable proposition?

Keeping a cow simply to rear a calf is a very recent farm enterprise and as far as I can see it has only benefitted the meat processors by opening the doors of markets that demand that quality meat.

When I was a lad all beef was produced from the dairy herd ( purebred breeders not inc.) and I think that there has been a decline in the quality of beef with the introduction of continental beef breeds. They just don't taste as good as the traditional breeds like AA and HE.
Interestingly there is now a gathering momentum for pure Angus beef in the better restaurants here and purebred Angus beef is making €6/kg at the factory. Got me thinking...

barnaman

Shame is noone has an interest in eating quality. THe NZ guys use that system, Eating qulity as opposed to EUROP grading. great article in FWI about AA suckler herd over there and how breed for marbling etc. Assum use ultrasound to test etc.

Next think is will be an oversupply of AA! Works out at about €40 a head bonus scheme and not killed enough to them to see how they kill out. My LMX killed out as R off grass and all Us and some Es with meal. 2016 not giving much meal at all if can avoid it. Price difffernce in grades not make it viable IMO and will get to heavy; looking forward to this 23c a kilo penalty for supplying U grade beef.

J DEERE

Dawggone wrote: »

+1.

To balance I should add that back in the late '70's (I think), I remember buying calves for 50p and when I came out of the mart people had dumped calves that they couldn't sell into my trailer.
Two or more years later they were worth a fortune....

Anyone here remember those years?

My father often talks of it. He remembers suck calves running around the car park at the mart, lads couldn't sell so they just let them off. There was a lady in the parish at the time and she gathered them all up, put together about a hundred and made a solid fortune on them

Miname

J DEERE wrote: »

My father often talks of it. He remembers suck calves running around the car park at the mart, lads couldn't sell so they just let them off. There was a lady in the parish at the time and she gathered them all up, put together about a hundred and made a solid fortune on them

There's fair costs involved with taking 100 calves through to finished. The problem is you can't let them grow for four or five years now.

farawaygrass

Miname wrote: »

There's fair costs involved with taking 100 calves through to finished. The problem is you can't let them grow for four or five years now.

Ya, which is mental. This age limit/movement limit is a disgrace. I rang Bord Bia only the other day as I have cattle that I bought less thsn 70 days ago and asked could they be killed after 35 days in my herd if they were in a Bord Bia herd previously. I was told that "in Bord bias eyes, if cattle are kept 70 days between two farm that will be ok". I asked "so I can sell them so". He said "it depends on the factories as different factories might have different rules, and any rules other than stated regarding movement are made up by the factories". I was gobsmacked.
Also lads will always buy calves/cattle too dear, especially part time farmers(no insult intended). If they don't buy stock back in they could be facing a big tax bill, so better buy cattle and hope for a return than pay money for nothing to the tax man.

nhg

Miname wrote: »

There's fair costs involved with taking 100 calves through to finished. The problem is you can't let them grow for four or five years now.

I think it's the cheapest way to build stock numbers if you have the facilities to rear calves and can hold them to finish - beef calf to finish cattle system.

Bought 3 weaned AAX calves for €1100 in July 2013 sold this July for €5005 - left €3823 after cost, levies, transport etc before on farm costs.

Miname

nhg wrote: »

I think it's the cheapest way to build stock numbers if you have the facilities to rear calves and can hold them to finish - beef calf to finish cattle system.

Bought 3 weaned AAX calves for €1100 in July 2013 sold this July for €5005 - left €3823 after cost, levies, transport etc before on farm costs.

Fair going. Did they get meal or what sort of weights did they come into?

nhg

All got calf nuts until they were put into the shed in November 13, one got beef elite nuts for 6 weeks to finish the other 2 finished off grass - we usually finish all with nuts.

Bought in 24 calves in 2015 and hope to buy in maybe 40 or 50 early calves in the next few months - last year we just bought in calves from 2 farmers & plan to do similar this year...

Cassidy2

nhg wrote: »

I think it's the cheapest way to build stock numbers if you have the facilities to rear calves and can hold them to finish - beef calf to finish cattle system.

Bought 3 weaned AAX calves for €1100 in July 2013 sold this July for €5005 - left €3823 after cost, levies, transport etc before on farm costs.

Costs would be a average of 1 euro a day each

TITANIUM.

nhg wrote: »

Bought 3 weaned AAX calves for €1100 in July 2013 sold this July for €5005 - left €3823 after cost, levies, transport etc before on farm costs.

You must have a great handle on your costs!

barnaman

THats huge money fair play to you. Those worked out better than continetal.

rangler1

farawaygrass wrote: »

Ya, which is mental. This age limit/movement limit is a disgrace. I rang Bord Bia only the other day as I have cattle that I bought less thsn 70 days ago and asked could they be killed after 35 days in my herd if they were in a Bord Bia herd previously. I was told that "in Bord bias eyes, if cattle are kept 70 days between two farm that will be ok". I asked "so I can sell them so". He said "it depends on the factories as different factories might have different rules, and any rules other than stated regarding movement are made up by the factories". I was gobsmacked.
Also lads will always buy calves/cattle too dear, especially part time farmers(no insult intended). If they don't buy stock back in they could be facing a big tax bill, so better buy cattle and hope for a return than pay money for nothing to the tax man.

The 70 days is to do with medicine residues, if there's some found in the meat both farmers in the 70 days can say they didn't give it, whereas if it's 70 days in the one herd it's much harder to deny.
As far as I know Tesco is insisting on 70 days residency on the last farm

nhg

I still use the old blue herd book for this purpose, over on the right hand side I record animal cost & any inward cost - ie transport & levies if purchased from marts & weight when filling in the animals details. Then when sold I record the sale price, grade, weight, price per kg & again any transport, levies etc then in another colum I record the 'what the animal left figure' - it makes interesting reading, btw FRX quiet often leave more €'s than continentals.

I have been doing this since I began farming in 2012 - the accountancy background still at work....

farawaygrass

rangler1 wrote: »

The 70 days is to do with medicine residues, if there's some found in the meat both farmers in the 70 days can say they didn't give it, whereas if it's 70 days in the one herd it's much harder to deny.
As far as I know Tesco is insisting on 70 days residency on the last farm

That's one side of it I suppose. I always had the impression from any factory person that it was Bord Bia rules

rangler1

farawaygrass wrote: »

That's one side of it I suppose. I always had the impression from any factory person that it was Bord Bia rules

It usually is but there are exceptions as bord bia said, I'd say it'll be compulsory in all factories before long

agriman27

rangler1 wrote: »

The 70 days is to do with medicine residues, if there's some found in the meat both farmers in the 70 days can say they didn't give it, whereas if it's 70 days in the one herd it's much harder to deny.
As far as I know Tesco is insisting on 70 days residency on the last farm

This is something I often wondered about, what happens when the boys at the mart who buy cattle and then kill them the next morning, do they ever hear back about any residues or how does that work

rangler1

agriman27 wrote: »

This is something I often wondered about, what happens when the boys at the mart who buy cattle and then kill them the next morning, do they ever hear back about any residues or how does that work

,

The animal would be skipped, the dealer wouldn't be long following it up then.
The only one I was ever involved with was a cow left in over Christmas Week a few years ago and the owner contacted me, wasn't a lot I could do. department guys were all over him and blood tested a lot of his stock, there was no dealer involved and I don't know how it finished

cute geoge

I heard a good one about a cow bought by agent in local mart went straight to factory to show up with antibotic residue in meat.Dept inspected the medicine records in the herd where cow came from and fined the farmer 25% of s.f.p.

Reggie.

Sold 3 bullocks today in delvin mart.
2 AAX bullocks 450kg €1005
1 CHX bullock 480kg €1055

White Clover

Reggie. wrote: »

Sold 3 bullocks today in delvin mart.
2 AAX bullocks 450kg €1005
1 CHX bullock 480kg €1055

Good money for the Angus there Reggie. What age were they?

Miname

Reggie. wrote: »

Sold 3 bullocks today in delvin mart.
2 AAX bullocks 450kg €1005
1 CHX bullock 480kg €1055

Is there much stock going to delvin? I've often meant to go, they have a Friday night sale as well ?