26th December - King George et al

Shemale

May as well kick things off for one of the best days racing in the years.

Reckon there is about 90 races on a normal Stephens Day and the challenge is not to get too drunk or you will try bet on them all.

uxiant

Ground is good to soft, soft in places at Kempton with some rain predicted in the next few days.

My thoughts are really the same as they were a few weeks ago. I have this nagging doubt about Don Cossack when the pressure is really on. He seems to really switch off in his races these days and I just wonder if he'll get caught out here in a race run at a frenetic pace. He didn't look like the winner turning for home in the Punchestown Gold Cup before staying on strongly and even at Down Royal I didn't really feel as if he traveled like a 3m superstar although I may be nit picking a bit there. At Cheltenham Uxizandre ran him into the ground when he made a few mistakes and I just wonder if he might one of those horses who smashes up weaker Grade 1 opposition but just falls short at the real top level.

There's too many concerns about Vautour to back him at 3/1. As I said previously I'm sure he'll stay as he put 15L between two very good horses up the hill in the JLT and connections seem to think the same. The concern is his two best runs have been at Cheltenham on good ground and Mullins has always stressed he is very hard to get fit so we may not see his best until March. I love the horse but there's too many concerns to back him in a race like this at the prices.

Cue Card never really fulfilled his promise but he has showed signs he can do it this season. His Betfair Chase victory was sensational even if Conti was below his best and the summer break as well as the breathing op seemed to have done him the world of good. He has tons of pace but also stays, jumps, is tactically versatile and he's my idea of the winner.

Silviniaco Conti has had his issues and the big drift before the off in the Betfair Chase was telling but if anyone can get him back to his best it's Paul Nicholls and I think he'll come on for that and challenge for the places. This is a better race than last year or the year before so winning is probably a stretch for him.

I'm not sure Smad Place will back up his excellent Hennessey run and even if he did I think more would be required to win. The initial talk of swerving the King George makes me think the seasonal goal was to win the Hennessey and he may not be able to reproduce that effort just a month later. Even though he put them away with ease First Lieutenant was 3rd and breathing issues have come too light since regarding Saphir de Rheu and running on the old ground on the outside probably was no help either so it wasn't the strongest race.

Can't have Al Ferof or Valseur Lido. Al Ferof has never been good enough to win this before and I can't see how he's good enough now in a stronger renewal. He's also probably better fresh and over 2 and a half as well. A lot of people seem to like Valseur Lido each way but I don't see it at all. He looks pretty exposed now as he was unable to bridge the gaps to the best novices last year so unless marathon trips bring more improvement (which he doesn't get in the King George) I can't see much more in him. He has to step up significantly to even place here.

Road to Riches is going to the Lexus and I doubt the other two will run looking at Betfair.

Holding off until closer to the day as bookies will likely push out the odds but the selection has to be Cue Card for me.

Huntley

Cue Card can drop the bit now so he can be delivered differently which is an advantage. His last two races were hack arounds, Silviniaco Conti couldn't go fast enough for him and he basically won hard held. He crumbled two years ago, injuries had nothing to do with it Silviniaco Conti pushed him hard from a long way out and he emptied. The jockey said the same after the race but it was clear as day watching it. He doesn't need to race like that this time but I'd have reservations about what he will find when he needs to go deep in to the tank. Which he will, this is a King George. Smad Place is the key pace angle and I hope he'll push it hard enough. They are going to take a lead with Vautour but I'd expect Ruby to take it up at least 5 or 6 out, he's got the horse to do it he should make use of him. The later they deliver Vautour the more chance you are giving Don Cossack, his jumping will come under strain if you force him to go quicker than he's comfortable with. Vautour will win if they aren't too conservative with him.

Dr. Bre

I had a bet on smads place today even tho betting was suspended. Is my bet safe?

The Mig

It's a purely fascinating race that if it was run 10 times we could 5 different winners. 5 being Vautour, Don Coss, Cue Card, Conti and Smad place. I'm gonna side with Vautour to gallop them into the ground. Saver on Conti for the Hat Trick

Gavin "shels"

Storm Eva can you kindly f**k right off!

kfallon

Just noticed Richard Johnson heads to Huntingdon on 26th, he must be promised a winner or two. None of his rides jump out at me but there is an unraced ex-pointer in the bumper for Hobbs and he also rides The Tailgater for Jonjo.

I've a few small bets done for St Stephens day. Vatour for KG.

My Christmas betting revolves around Sizing Gold in the Paddy Power on Sunday. I've him backed at 14s and 12s.

akelly02

After looking through a bit of form and my conclusion is that don cossacks jumping isnt up to the standard required to win against this lot. Has a great engine but that will be no use when he starts to lose a place or 2 when the heat is turned on

Chesty08

akelly02 wrote: »

After looking through a bit of form and my conclusion is that don cossacks jumping isnt up to the standard required to win against this lot. Has a great engine but that will be no use when he starts to lose a place or 2 when the heat is turned on

100% agree.. It's whether the form/rejuvenation of Cue Card is that good or Vautour (is the best in the Race) can live up to the hype.

Chesty08

Think il go in Faugheen, Douvan & Vautour at 8s

Then a cover on Cue at 4s

Chesty08

Dove Mountain 7/4 3:40 Wolves

Previous course winner, Gordon Elliott trained & Jamie Spencer rides.

Gordon Elliott only horse going on the AW. Not sure 7/4 is a reasonable price

Peintre Celebre

TheTorment wrote: »

I've a few small bets done for St Stephens day. Vatour for KG.

My Christmas betting revolves around Sizing Gold in the Paddy Power on Sunday. I've him backed at 14s and 12s.

I have 25/1

Peintre Celebre

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

I have 25/1

Very nice! How long ago was that?

Peintre Celebre

TheTorment wrote: »

Very nice! How long ago was that?

Just over a week ago it was widely available

Peintre Celebre

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

Just over a week ago it was widely available

Great price you have. Best of luck

Ill settle for my prices once it wins!!

posturingpat

akelly02 wrote: »

After looking through a bit of form and my conclusion is that don cossacks jumping isnt up to the standard required to win against this lot. Has a great engine but that will be no use when he starts to lose a place or 2 when the heat is turned on

Couldn't disagree more,if his jumping is ever going to cause him to lose ground it'll be if they go a muddling place and he has to fiddle a few that he can be slow. When he's asked for a big 1 at a good gallop he jumps them brilliantly and will make ground on the others. I'm having a right good go on him in the morning and will be shopping around hoping someone goes 3/1.

ShaneU

My picks for the day

Douvan
Don Cossack
The New One
Native River
Marracudja
Derrynane e/w
Officer Sydney e/w

Good luck everyone and merry Christmas

Copper_pipe

Merry Christmas from all @ The Inside Track

Seeing as it's Christmas and me being in the festive mood I'll share my best bets with Ye for the festive racing. I've only 2 at the moment but will have a few more tonight/tomorrow morning.

We've gotten strong word for Jers Girl straight from the trainers mouth. It's running Saturday at Leopardstown in the 1:20 and is currently 4/1. She's been working very well at home and there expecting a win from her. Gavin Cromwell its trainer, called the mare a beast. Said this is just a stepping stone to Cheltenham in March. He's very confident. The horse won by 10l last time and it could well of been 20l. She gets a mare's allowance against the boys and she will be very hard to beat.

In the Leopardstown bumper on the 26th. A a guy who works in one of the leading bookies was telling us that theyve been getting a number of calls to put up Derrynane in the bumper @ Leopardstown.. It's never run before but that's always a good sign. On Monday it was only horse in the race with the jockey already booked who was Jane Mangan. The Trainer had only 2 horses last season and one came 2nd and the other won @ Punchestown. Jane Mangan rode both. Looks as if he buys them, wins with them and sells them
The horse that won was bought by JP. Was expecting it to be 20/1 but you can get 33/1 on PP. Go each way obviously.


Should hopefully have a few more to post before the racing starts!

Chesty08

Copper_pipe wrote: »

Merry Christmas from all @ The Inside Track

Seeing as it's Christmas and me being in the festive mood I'll share my best bets with Ye for the festive racing. I've only 2 at the moment but will have a few more tonight/tomorrow morning.

We've gotten strong word for Jers Girl straight from the trainers mouth. It's running Saturday at Leopardstown in the 1:20 and is currently 4/1. She's been working very well at home and there expecting a win from her. Gavin Cromwell its trainer, called the mare a beast. Said this is just a stepping stone to Cheltenham in March. He's very confident. The horse won by 10l last time and it could well of been 20l. She gets a mare's allowance against the boys and she will be very hard to beat.

In the Leopardstown bumper on the 26th. A a guy who works in one of the leading bookies was telling us that theyve been getting a number of calls to put up Derrynane in the bumper @ Leopardstown.. It's never run before but that's always a good sign. On Monday it was only horse in the race with the jockey already booked who was Jane Mangan. The Trainer had only 2 horses last season and one came 2nd and the other won @ Punchestown. Jane Mangan rode both. Looks as if he buys them, wins with them and sells them
The horse that won was bought by JP. Was expecting it to be 20/1 but you can get 33/1 on PP. Go each way obviously.


Should hopefully have a few more to post before the racing starts!

nice to hear. Have both of these backed, Also heard something for Derrynane

realdanbreen

Copper_pipe wrote: »

Merry Christmas from all @ The Inside Track

Seeing as it's Christmas and me being in the festive mood I'll share my best bets with Ye for the festive racing. I've only 2 at the moment but will have a few more tonight/tomorrow morning.

We've gotten strong word for Jers Girl straight from the trainers mouth.

So the trainer,Gavin Cromwell, called and told you this?

Copper_pipe

realdanbreen wrote: »

So the trainer,Gavin Cromwell, called and told you this?

A very close relation of mine was on a stag recently and Gavin Cromwell was on it too. He couldn't have talked it up any more. They really are expecting the win from her but there are no certainties in Racing.

Peintre Celebre

I fancy a fair few tomorrow. Backed the West Wizard at Kempton 6/1, backed Keltus in the last there who didn't fare too badly last time and he should be competitive in a race like this got 16/1.

At leop C'est Notre Gris is a big price each way in the handicap hurdle at 20/1 and I'm tempted to back Heaney despite concerns over the trip at 12/1


A machine runs tomorrow RASHAAN. If he was trained by Willy he'd be odds on for this be sorry if he is beaten

hawkeyethenoo

Copper_pipe wrote: »

A very close relation of mine was on a stag recently and Gavin Cromwell was on it too. He couldn't have talked it up any more. They really are expecting the win from her but there are no certainties in Racing.

there is no such thing as a tip in a grade 1/2 race.

hawkeyethenoo

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

A machine runs tomorrow RASHAAN. If he was trained by Willy he'd be odds on for this be sorry if he is beaten

trained by mullins and this would be a 1/3 shot on what its done. really hope it wins the triumph for the owners and trainer.

BumperD

Jers Girl is a cracking jumper, meets the hurdles on a perfect stride and flys over them really low. Her knee action suggests she likes it soft. As much as I like her, Rahsaan has better form in the book and despite having to concede weight, should be tough to beat. One of many cracking races on the card. GL on all your selections

Chesty08

Spot on Bumper. It's a cracking race and even both Gordon Elliott horses aren't to be ruled out.

As much as I like Jers Girl, I'm definitely nothing going in big. One for interest.

Francie Barrett

Ground in Ireland is surely going to be utterly bottomless.

closcriobh

Is it just me or are people overlooking Silviniaco Conti's changes in the KG? Although it's a much stronger renewal then last year he was impressive last year. Nicholls said he wasn't perfectly happy with him before he raced LTO so assuming he comes on from that run 9/1 could look quite big I think.

BorneTobyWilde

System overload.
I simply cannot take in the amount or races
Where does one begin.

redzerdrog

Silvianco should be 2nd fav to vautour imo

the groutch

not a big price, but I see Elliott goes back to Wolverhampton with Dove Mountain.
looks a very weak race and I'd be surprised if he got beat.

Francie Barrett

1:50 Huntingdon - Polo Springs my bet of the day for tomorrow. This one was last seen nearly two years ago when it won two races on the trot in a very nice fashion. A 20lb hike in the ratings to 95 looks harsh, but the horses that finished behind it in the last run have all progressed, won races and been bumped up to a handicap rating in the low hundreds. Reckon this one is already really well handicapped off a mark of 95, but with a 10lb claimer on-board, you're looking at what must be the best handicapped horse of the day. The owners love this mare and have been dying to see it back on track, so hopefully we see a great training performance tomorrow. 15/2 best price now, may get a little better tomorrow morning.

Gavin "shels"

the groutch wrote: »

not a big price, but I see Elliott goes back to Wolverhampton with Dove Mountain.
looks a very weak race and I'd be surprised if he got beat.

Page 1, 12th post

Copper_pipe

Hi all,

There is a lot of racing on today. 11 meetings. We had our work cut out for us but we had a few days to study the form. We’re going to post up our Best Win Bets and Best Each Way Bets. Focus on the best win bets and follow the star system for all. Bet responsibly.

Best Win Bets:

Outlander 11/10 2:10 Limerick ★★★★★

Triple bumper winner and a Grade 2 winning novice hurdler. Made a good impression when getting the better of Free Expression on chase debut at Punchestown last month, and the likelihood of more to come now. He is a great jumper and he can make it 2 from 2 in this sphere over the same rival today.

Altior 6/4 12:50 Kempton ★★★★

He is as short as 14-1 for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival in March and looked the real deal when beating Maputo there in the Grade 2 trial last month. We have been sweet on him all season so far and tipped him up every time he ran and won. He likely has even more to offer and has sound prospects of keeping his winning spree going. He is unbeaten over hurdles and he looks a horse to follow today and in the future. Open Eagle may be the one to chase him home.

Native River 2/1 2:00 Kempton ★★★★

In a stable tour his trainer said the following "He is a our best staying novice chaser this year. It was a very pleasing effort at the Hennessy meeting when beating Un Temps Pour Tout. He is an easy horse to train - he does his galloping then he eats and he doesn't pull in his race, will race behind on the bridle and when you ask for it he finds. We will take him to Kempton for the Kauto Star Novices Chase. He has everything going for him and is a really nice horse." He is in top form and is going for a hat trick of wins after winning at Exeter and beating the well regarded Un Temps Pour Tout by 4 Lengths in a grade 2 at Newbury. Has won over this distance previously so no worries there. Big chance.

Vigil 1/1 12:45 Leopardstown ★★★

High-class bumper performer won twice here and was fifth in the Cheltenham Bumper for the last two years. He relishes an ease in the ground and has loads of toe. Runs well fresh and should go very close if he runs up to form.

Avellino 7/4 3:30 Down Royal ★★★

This four year old filly looks a very interesting proposition following debut second at 40/1 behind the Willie Mullins-trained winner Lucky Pass at Fairyhouse. He finished 12l clear of the third, with the well-fancied Sunni May another 4 1/2l away in fourth. That was her debut and more can be expected today, especially as she gets age and sex allowances. Should prove hard to beat.

___________________________________________________________

Best Each Way Bets:

Jer’s Girl 4/1 1:20 Leopardstown ★★★

We've gotten strong word for Jers Girl straight from the trainers mouth. She's been working very well at home and they're expecting a win from her. Gavin Cromwell its trainer, called the mare a beast. Said this is just a stepping stone to Cheltenham in March. He's very confident. The horse won by 10l last time and it could well of been 20l. She gets a mare's allowance against the boys and she will be very hard to beat. We’ve lumped on it each way. There has been support for other horses in this race too so she’s not a cert by any means but we’re confident.

Alcala 5/1 1:40 Wincanton ★★

Made a winning reappearance in great style by 16l. He ran 4th in a top novice hurdle after that. That race was won by Shantou Village who looks a really classy horse. His last run was a real good fourth in a Grade 3 Handicap over the fixed brush obstacles at Haydock. That was over 2 mile 7f on soft ground, this is over 2 mile 5f. Paul Nicholls five-year-old didn't quite see out the 2m 7f trip at Haydock. He is expected to run a big race off 1lb lower now back in distance today. He is also down in class today which will suit. Good each way chance.

Irish Bulletin 9/1 3:15 Limerick ★★

This horse looks a right job horse, I’ve been watching him since July. It looks as if he has been stopped with one race in mind. He won over course and distance on this day last year. He was a very well backed horse that day and he won with relative ease. That was a hurdle race, he is now running over fences. He has had 3 runs in beginners chases to get his handicap mark. Those races were hotly contested races, the second of which was won by Douvan. He has gotten a very nice mark after those 3 runs. I get the feeling that he was not off on any of those days. He is trained locally to the track and his owner JP McManus nearly always has a horse set aside for this meeting every year. This horse will love the ground and I wouldn’t be surprised if he was on a going day today. He is 5lb well in on his hurdles rating and he is unexposed whereas most of these are not. There’s a good chance this one ends up a much shorter price.

Derrynane 33/1 3:25 Leopardstown ★

A friend of ours who works in one of the leading bookies in Ireland was telling us that the connections of this horse rang earlier in the week to request a price for it. He said they staked a nice each way sum. It's never run before but that can be a good sign as its an unknown on paper. On Monday it was only horse in the race with the jockey already booked which was Jane Mangan. The trainer had only 2 horses run last season. One came 2nd at 25/1 and the other won at the Punchestown Festival at 33/1. Jane Mangan rode both. The trainer mainly only buys horses if he thinks it will win a bumper. When it does he sells them for a lot more than he paid for them. The horse that won at Punchestown was bought by JP McManus for a large sum since. This horse is 33/1 and unproven but the vibes are good. Have a small each way bet.

Francie Barrett

Limerick and Wetherby off.

corny

Anyone else think Old Guard is good value against Faugheen?

pugw

corny wrote: »

Anyone else think Old Guard is good value against Faugheen?

Thought that myself

Copper_pipe

Trends Guide:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
*  Aged 6 or 7 (or a previous winner)
*  French bred
*  Won or placed last time out in the past 40 days
*  Won over 3M+
*  Won multiple Grade 1 chases
*  Finished in first 3 in last season’s King George and/or Gold Cup
*  Finished in first 3 in the Betfair Chase last time
*  Finished in first 3 in Denman Chase and/or Aintree Bowl
*  Trained by Paul Nicholls
 
Trends Predict:
1st: Silviniaco Conti
2nd: Vautour
3rd: Valseur Lido
Form Analysis:
Don Cossack was badly hampered at Cheltenham in the Ryanair Chase in March but has won his four subsequent starts in impressive fashion. Two of them were Grade 1’s including a win in the G1 chase at the Punchestown festival. He beat Djackadam and Cue Card derisively that day and he is the highest-rated jumper in training.

He is pretty much bomb proof and very consistent. He does have to improve again to take this race as there are some up and coming types. I wouldn’t put it past him though to find more improvement. The only doubts about this horse are his age and his breeding. He may be a year too old according to the trends and being an Irish bred is unfavorable as 9 of the last 10 winners were French bred.  Other than that there really are no real kinks in his armor.
He has yet to face Vautour though. He is 9 from 10 for Willie Mullins and he dominated as novice hurdler then novice chaser at the last two Cheltenham Festivals. After his win at last seasons Cheltenham festival it looked as if he had the world at his feet. He shaped as if in need of the race when seeing off Ptit Zig at Ascot on reappearance. Overall impression is still very much that he is a top notch horse. This is his first run beyond 2m 5f but he gives the impression that he will stay.

If anything I think he could be a better horse over this trip. I remember Ruby Walsh saying a few seasons back that this horse will improve when he goes over longer trips. That is scary to think that this horse could be even better that what we have seen. He has been electrifying so far and has shown a tremendous turn of foot, which is seldom seen on soft ground. He has been ridden from the front in the past, I think he may be held up a bit more today. Irish horses haven’t had a good record in this race in the past but I think both Don Cossack and Vautour are special horses that don’t come along very often.

Smad Place who was a top class staying hurdler has shown a vast improvement over fences this season. He got a operation on his palette in the summer to fix his breathing and that has really helped him. He won here first time up from Fingal Bay and he then won the Hennessy Gold Cup in scintillating style from the front. He jumped so good throughout and never looked like losing. That was a graded handicap race, this is a step up in class for him but he is in the form of his life. This big grey horse is sure to set a good pace and he is primed for a big run again.
Silviniaco Conti bids for a hat trick of wins in this race. He outstayed Cue Card in 2013 and Dynaste in 2014, but his record elsewhere has certainly had its ups and downs. It was disconcerting that he was put in his place so severely by Cue Card at Haydock five weeks ago in the betfair chase, in a race he’d won on the two other occasions that he contested it second time out. A lot of the trends point in his favor, he is sure to run a good race but I can see him coming up a bit short this year. The two main Irish challengers look the ones to be on. Cue Card who won that race at Haydock, comes her looking to try and win this race for the 4th time of asking. He just doesn’t seem to give his true running around here though. I couldn’t have him because of that. Of the others Valseur Lido may do the best but he has a lot to find on some of these, mainly his stablemate Vautour.
Verdict:
I can see Smad Place taking it up and kicking on around the final bend and taking a few lengths out of the field with his flawless jumping. Don Cossack and Vautour won’t be too far away. They should prove too good for Smad Place and go past him over the last. It should be a battle royale all the way up the Kempton straight and I think Vautour could have too many gears for Don Cossack. If he win’s he’ll be a very short price for the Gold Cup. 
Prediction:
1st: Vautour
2nd: Don Cossack
3rd: Smad Place

Backstreet Moyes

corny wrote: »

Anyone else think Old Guard is good value against Faugheen?

Faugheen is the best 2 mile hurdler around and the reigning champion hurdler.
Old Guard won handicaps and was all out to beat Supreme Medici who is below champion hurdle class.

Chesty08

Chesty08 wrote: »

Spot on Bumper. It's a cracking race and even both Gordon Elliott horses aren't to be ruled out.

As much as I like Jers Girl, I'm definitely nothing going in big. One for interest.

Gordon Elliott's Campeador 8s into 3s

This is a really interesting race now. Jers Girl now out as big as 9/2

Dubron

Copper_pipe wrote: »

Vigil 1/1 12:45 Leopardstown ★★★

High-class bumper performer won twice here and was fifth in the Cheltenham Bumper for the last two years. He relishes an ease in the ground and has loads of toe. Runs well fresh and should go very close if he runs up to form.

Avellino 7/4 3:30 Down Royal ★★★

This four year old filly looks a very interesting proposition following debut second at 40/1 behind the Willie Mullins-trained winner Lucky Pass at Fairyhouse. He finished 12l clear of the third, with the well-fancied Sunni May another 4 1/2l away in fourth. That was her debut and more can be expected today, especially as she gets age and sex allowances. Should prove hard to beat.

___________________________________________________________


Alcala 5/1 1:40 Wincanton ★★

Made a winning reappearance in great style by 16l. He ran 4th in a top novice hurdle after that. That race was won by Shantou Village who looks a really classy horse. His last run was a real good fourth in a Grade 3 Handicap over the fixed brush obstacles at Haydock. That was over 2 mile 7f on soft ground, this is over 2 mile 5f. Paul Nicholls five-year-old didn't quite see out the 2m 7f trip at Haydock. He is expected to run a big race off 1lb lower now back in distance today. He is also down in class today which will suit. Good each way chance.

What the Racing Post Spotlight comments are for these horses:

Vigil:
High-class bumper performer won twice here and twice fifth in the big one at Cheltenham; relishes an ease, has loads of toe and quite the ride for veteran Tommy Treacy to get here.

Avellino:
Sole four-year-od filly looks a very interesting proposition following debut second behind the Willie Mullins-trained winner Lucky Pass at Fairyhouse; finished 12l clear of the third, with the well-fancied Sunni May another 4 1/2l away in fourth.

Alcala:
Made a winning reappearance and hasn't fared badly on the figures in Graded company since, fourth in Grade 3 handicap over the fixed brush obstacles at Haydock (2m7f, soft) last time; not fully exposed and warrants respect back down in class.

You really need to stop this!

Gringo180

These Grade 1 races over here really are appalling. Only 4 runners and another odds on shot heading the market.

Peintre Celebre

Copper_pipe wrote: »

Hi all,

There is a lot of racing on today. 11 meetings. We had our work cut out for us but we had a few days to study the form. We’re going to post up our Best Win Bets and Best Each Way Bets. Focus on the best win bets and follow the star system for all. Bet responsibly.

Best Win Bets:

Outlander 11/10 2:10 Limerick ★★★★★

Triple bumper winner and a Grade 2 winning novice hurdler. Made a good impression when getting the better of Free Expression on chase debut at Punchestown last month, and the likelihood of more to come now. He is a great jumper and he can make it 2 from 2 in this sphere over the same rival today.

Altior 6/4 12:50 Kempton ★★★★

He is as short as 14-1 for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival in March and looked the real deal when beating Maputo there in the Grade 2 trial last month. We have been sweet on him all season so far and tipped him up every time he ran and won. He likely has even more to offer and has sound prospects of keeping his winning spree going. He is unbeaten over hurdles and he looks a horse to follow today and in the future. Open Eagle may be the one to chase him home.

Native River 2/1 2:00 Kempton ★★★★

In a stable tour his trainer said the following "He is a our best staying novice chaser this year. It was a very pleasing effort at the Hennessy meeting when beating Un Temps Pour Tout. He is an easy horse to train - he does his galloping then he eats and he doesn't pull in his race, will race behind on the bridle and when you ask for it he finds. We will take him to Kempton for the Kauto Star Novices Chase. He has everything going for him and is a really nice horse." He is in top form and is going for a hat trick of wins after winning at Exeter and beating the well regarded Un Temps Pour Tout by 4 Lengths in a grade 2 at Newbury. Has won over this distance previously so no worries there. Big chance.

Vigil 1/1 12:45 Leopardstown ★★★

High-class bumper performer won twice here and was fifth in the Cheltenham Bumper for the last two years. He relishes an ease in the ground and has loads of toe. Runs well fresh and should go very close if he runs up to form.

Avellino 7/4 3:30 Down Royal ★★★

This four year old filly looks a very interesting proposition following debut second at 40/1 behind the Willie Mullins-trained winner Lucky Pass at Fairyhouse. He finished 12l clear of the third, with the well-fancied Sunni May another 4 1/2l away in fourth. That was her debut and more can be expected today, especially as she gets age and sex allowances. Should prove hard to beat.

___________________________________________________________

Best Each Way Bets:

Jer’s Girl 4/1 1:20 Leopardstown ★★★

We've gotten strong word for Jers Girl straight from the trainers mouth. She's been working very well at home and they're expecting a win from her. Gavin Cromwell its trainer, called the mare a beast. Said this is just a stepping stone to Cheltenham in March. He's very confident. The horse won by 10l last time and it could well of been 20l. She gets a mare's allowance against the boys and she will be very hard to beat. We’ve lumped on it each way. There has been support for other horses in this race too so she’s not a cert by any means but we’re confident.

Alcala 5/1 1:40 Wincanton ★★

Made a winning reappearance in great style by 16l. He ran 4th in a top novice hurdle after that. That race was won by Shantou Village who looks a really classy horse. His last run was a real good fourth in a Grade 3 Handicap over the fixed brush obstacles at Haydock. That was over 2 mile 7f on soft ground, this is over 2 mile 5f. Paul Nicholls five-year-old didn't quite see out the 2m 7f trip at Haydock. He is expected to run a big race off 1lb lower now back in distance today. He is also down in class today which will suit. Good each way chance.

Irish Bulletin 9/1 3:15 Limerick ★★

This horse looks a right job horse, I’ve been watching him since July. It looks as if he has been stopped with one race in mind. He won over course and distance on this day last year. He was a very well backed horse that day and he won with relative ease. That was a hurdle race, he is now running over fences. He has had 3 runs in beginners chases to get his handicap mark. Those races were hotly contested races, the second of which was won by Douvan. He has gotten a very nice mark after those 3 runs. I get the feeling that he was not off on any of those days. He is trained locally to the track and his owner JP McManus nearly always has a horse set aside for this meeting every year. This horse will love the ground and I wouldn’t be surprised if he was on a going day today. He is 5lb well in on his hurdles rating and he is unexposed whereas most of these are not. There’s a good chance this one ends up a much shorter price.

Derrynane 33/1 3:25 Leopardstown ★

A friend of ours who works in one of the leading bookies in Ireland was telling us that the connections of this horse rang earlier in the week to request a price for it. He said they staked a nice each way sum. It's never run before but that can be a good sign as its an unknown on paper. On Monday it was only horse in the race with the jockey already booked which was Jane Mangan. The trainer had only 2 horses run last season. One came 2nd at 25/1 and the other won at the Punchestown Festival at 33/1. Jane Mangan rode both. The trainer mainly only buys horses if he thinks it will win a bumper. When it does he sells them for a lot more than he paid for them. The horse that won at Punchestown was bought by JP McManus for a large sum since. This horse is 33/1 and unproven but the vibes are good. Have a small each way bet.

I don't want to come across as condescending or anything just an observation. You have a subscription tipping site and I wish you the best with it but no tipster who is in anyway shrewd would be tipping horses in bumpers or maiden hurdles especially unraced ones. Assuming your friend is a trader he should know there are bets every single day by connections on horses, hundreds each way that are no hopers

corny

Nuts102 wrote: »

Faugheen is the best 2 mile hurdler around and the reigning champion hurdler.
Old Guard won handicaps and was all out to beat Supreme Medici who is below champion hurdle class.

I wasn't suggesting Old Guard is a better horse. There's little question i'm relying on a sub par performance from Faugheen.

Just think Old Guard will be best of the rest and wouldn't take it on blind faith Faugheen just needed the run last time. I think it'll be close if Faugheen reproduces the Morgiana form.

uxiant

Gringo180 wrote: »

These Grade 1 races over here really are appalling. Only 4 runners and another odds on shot heading the market.

Easily the best novice chase of the year for me. 4 of the best horses from their respective yards and a short priced favourite who's well worth taking on.

When races are this competitive I don't mind the field sizes.

petes

What happened A Toi Phil the last time, could only see text commentary? That much racing on!!

Wicklow Brave

uxiant wrote: »

Easily the best novice chase of the year for me. 4 of the best horses from their respective yards and a short priced favourite who's well worth taking on.

When races are this competitive I don't mind the field sizes.

Spot on. Brilliant race. Doesn't need to have the current four and then ten no-hopers just to make it a big field for no purpose other than just having a big field.

Backstreet Moyes

corny wrote: »

I wasn't suggesting Old Guard is a better horse. There's little question i'm relying on a sub par performance from Faugheen.

Just think Old Guard will be best of the rest and wouldn't take it on blind faith Faugheen just needed the run last time. I think it'll be close if Faugheen reproduces the Morgiana form.

If Faugheen reproduces his Morgianna form he will still beat Our Guard. He was overweight and unfit the last day i see no reason why he won't improve a tonne.

If you think he will be best of the rest you can back him at Evs to finish ahead of The New One.

Backstreet Moyes

De Bromhead is known for improving horses massively when he puts them over fences, his horses jump very well.

Sizing John is the highest rated hurdler he has sent chasing and i think he could have a good chance today, but Douvan could be special.

He could beat Douvan today, but i think 5/4 w/o Douvan is the bet of the day.

Johner

Nuts102 wrote: »

De Bromhead is known for improving horses massively when he puts them over fences, his horses jump very well.

Sizing John is the highest rated hurdler he has sent chasing and i think he could have a good chance today, but Douvan could be special.

He could beat Douvan today, but i think 5/4 w/o Douvan is the bet of the day.

7/4 on Betfair sportsbook.