Sunday Times B&A Poll 15/11/15

Jawgap

FG up again......

https://twitter.com/thejournal_ie/status/665598729135632385

BoJack Horseman

That poll is all over the shop.

The far-left are on 9% yet on most other polls they barely reach 1%?

We're expected to think that Murphy & Coppinger are 1/3rd the popularity of FG?

Though, what is consistent is that the alt coalition is still well ahead of the incumbents.
Poll after poll is showing, Kenny will not be reelected Taoiseach.

Get ready for government Taoiseach Adams/Martin

Uncle Ben

The good news however is that Labour have dropped again. Should keep Jack O Connor and his union happy.

BoJack Horseman

Actually, looking at the other polls, this one from "Behaviour & Attitudes" does seem rather odd.

Last week's Milward Brown put the SP/PBP alliance at less than 1%
The week before RedC put them at 1%.

The last B&A poll put them at 5% & now they have doubled their Month-on-month score (while increasing their rating 10-fold on the other polling companies).

seems odd.

whatawaster

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

That poll is all over the shop.

The far-left are on 9% yet on most other polls they barely reach 1%?

We're expected to think that Murphy & Coppinger are 1/3rd the popularity of FG?

Though, what is consistent is that the alt coalition is still well ahead of the incumbents.
Poll after poll is showing, Kenny will not be reelected Taoiseach.

Get ready for government Taoiseach Adams/Martin

It is not an alternative coalition. Neither will go in to government with the other. Don't know why you keep banging this drum

BoJack Horseman

whatawaster wrote: »

It is not an alternative coalition. Neither will go in to government with the other. Don't know why you keep banging this drum

Of course it is.... Do people not understand that someone has to govern?
And on consistently 1/3rd of the vote, it's not going to be the incumbents.

I will when their respective leaders, Adams & Martin, declare publicly that they will never enter coalition with each other.... just like they did vis-a-vis Fine Gael.

Berkieahern

Uncle Ben wrote: »

The good news however is that Labour have dropped again. Should keep Jack O Connor and his union happy.

I expect they'll get a jump in support in the next poll, once the Dissident Republican votes comes in to play!

zl1whqvjs75cdy

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

I will when their respective leaders, Adams & Martin, declare publicly that they will never enter coalition with each other.... just like they did vis-a-vis Fine Gael.

The two men clearly hate each other. It'll never happen.

BoJack Horseman

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

The two men clearly hate each other. It'll never happen.

Then they can say so!

Adams, Martin.... rule out coalition together... just as you both did with FG.

(of course that means with 70% of the parties refusing coalition, there can be no government at all!)

aliveandkicking

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Then they can say so!

Adams, Martin.... rule out coalition together... just as you both did with FG.

(of course that means with 70% of the parties refusing coalition, there can be no government at all!)

If the current poll numbers translate into seat numbers (I have my doubts but lets say they do) FF will be the king makers. The question becomes do FF want to be the junior partner in a coalition with FG or the senior partner in a coalition with SF?

I still maintain that on the day there will be a shy FG vote to bring them well above 30% but the electorate would want to cop on quickly the potential of a Martin/Adams double act is closer than they might think.

goal_kicker

im beginning to think that a FG renua coalition may be on the cards , the economy is improving and the causes of labour ( gay marriage and a liberalisation of abortion law ) have been achieved , the looney left are unelectable and sinn fein are still too toxic for most

the media in ireland over represents the left politically , silently i think FG have much more support

Berkieahern

goal_kicker wrote: »

im beginning to think that a FG renua coalition may be on the cards , the economy is improving and the causes of labour ( gay marriage and a liberalisation of abortion law ) have been achieved , the looney left are unelectable and sinn fein are still too toxic for most

the media in ireland over represents the left politically , silently i think FG have much more support

There link up with dissidents will be the final nail in labours coffin!

Jolly Red Giant

The reason for the discrepancy is because the B&A polls don't use filters like the other polling companies.

The filters used by Red C etc skew the polls in favour of FG/LP. They over-poll A, B, and C1s and also skew the poll based on the likelihood that A, B. C1s are more likely to vote.

B&A use filters but not in the same way as the others and don't skew things like the others.

The real figures are the core numbers and these indicate relatively little movement for FG/LP with FG bouncing between 18%-20% and the LP stuck at 4%-5%

The core numbers for today's poll are

FF 14%
FG 18%
SF 17%
Lab 5%
Ind/others 19%

Undecided 26%

The interesting aspect of this poll (on a polling sample of 321) is the numbers for Dublin - which show the following

FG 21%
SF 20%
AAA/PBP 17%
FF 14%
LP 9%
Renua 2%
Indo Alliance 2%
GP 2%
Other Indos (including many left independents) 13%

If these numbers are remotely accurate on election day there will be massive changes in the representation in Dublin (with the LP losing all their seats).

the groutch

goal_kicker wrote: »

im beginning to think that a FG renua coalition may be on the cards , the economy is improving and the causes of labour ( gay marriage and a liberalisation of abortion law ) have been achieved , the looney left are unelectable and sinn fein are still too toxic for most

the media in ireland over represents the left politically , silently i think FG have much more support

I think you're overestimating Renua's popularity. They've been wavering between 1% and 2% in every poll, and will do well to hold the 3 seats of the incumbent TDs in the party, let alone add more.

BoJack Horseman

the groutch wrote: »

I think you're overestimating Renua's popularity. They've been wavering between 1% and 2% in every poll, and will do well to hold the 3 seats of the incumbent TDs in the party, let alone add more.

Yeah, I don't think Billy Timmons will be returned in Wicklow.

The God Squad with 2 seats will likely be an irrelevance come the next GE.

BoJack Horseman

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

That poll is all over the shop.

The far-left are on 9% yet on most other polls they barely reach 1%?

We're expected to think that Murphy & Coppinger are 1/3rd the popularity of FG?

Though, what is consistent is that the alt coalition is still well ahead of the incumbents.
Poll after poll is showing, Kenny will not be reelected Taoiseach.

Get ready for government Taoiseach Adams/Martin

Plenty of money to be made for someone thinking this is likely to happen.

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/irish-politics/irish-general-election/taoiseach-after-next-election

With Ladbrokes, you can get 5.1 on Adams or Martin being Taoiseach. Add in McDonald and you get 4.34 like this

48% of your stake on Martin @ 8/1
29% of your stake on Mary Lou @ 14/1
23% of the stake on Adams @18/1

If you think that its likely (more than 50% probability) to be one of them, that's a great return!

RobertKK

A FG/FF coalition could happen, but then maybe both would rather stay separate so not to destroy the other given how similar they are.

BoJack Horseman

Deleted User wrote: »

Plenty of money to be made for someone thinking this is likely to happen.

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/irish-politics/irish-general-election/taoiseach-after-next-election

With Ladbrokes, you can get 5.1 on Adams or Martin being Taoiseach. Add in McDonald and you get 4.34 like this

48% of your stake on Martin @ 8/1
29% of your stake on Mary Lou @ 14/1
23% of the stake on Adams @18/1

If you think that its likely (more than 50% probability) to be one of them, that's a great return!

I have 10 bones on the next government being FF/SF @ 15/1.

the hookers & blow are on me!

Godge

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

I have 10 bones on the next government being FF/SF @ 15/1.

the hookers & blow are on me!

Those are good odds.

Jolly Red Giant

I was talking to a member of the AAA who was polled by RedC this evening.

He was asked who he intended to vote for at the next election and was given a list

Green Party or Independent
Fianna Fail
Fine Gael
Labour Party
Sinn Fein.

When he asked what would happen if he answered AAA/PBP and he was told it would be recorded as such.

This is an example of the type of prompting that RedC engage in with their polls - and is potentially the reason (along with their filtering and focus on the higher social classes) why AAA/PBP have been consistently low in RedC polls.

banquo

No idea what the next govt will look like. The only realistic options at this point in time are:

– FG/FF (FF will never accept being the lower party)
– FG/SF (Would need a serious concession from SF, i.e. the abdication of Adams which I presume is their plan all along, still unlikely)
– FF/SF (Can't see the FF membership ever accepting this)
– FG minority govt with occasional support from FF. Bit mad but a possibility.

Nobody else has the numbers. Though it's worth pointing out that there's about 10% of undecided / ind voters that don't make up their minds until the week of the election then they all tend to swing one way. Happened in '07 and to a lesser extent in '11.

Edit: Added in FG/LAB with courting of Inds on a bill-by-bill basis – the potential for posturing-based trouble here come budget time (depending on how Renua do) illustrates the very real possibility of multiple general elections between 2016 and 2021.

Berkieahern

Jolly Red Giant wrote: »

I was talking to a member of the AAA who was polled by RedC this evening.

He was asked who he intended to vote for at the next election and was given a list

Green Party or Independent
Fianna Fail
Fine Gael
Labour Party
Sinn Fein.

When he asked what would happen if he answered AAA/PBP and he was told it would be recorded as such.

This is an example of the type of prompting that RedC engage in with their polls - and is potentially the reason (along with their filtering and focus on the higher social classes) why AAA/PBP have been consistently low in RedC polls.

And what about the dissident option?

Jawgap

banquo wrote: »

No idea what the next govt will look like. The only realistic options at this point in time are:

– FG/FF (FF will never accept being the lower party)
– FG/SF (Would need a serious concession from SF, i.e. the abdication of Adams which I presume is their plan all along, still unlikely)
– FF/SF (Can't see the FF membership ever accepting this)
– FG minority govt with occasional support from FF. Bit mad but a possibility.

Nobody else has the numbers. Though it's worth pointing out that there's about 10% of undecided / ind voters that don't make up their minds until the week of the election then they all tend to swing one way. Happened in '07 and to a lesser extent in '11.

Edit: Added in FG/LAB with courting of Inds on a bill-by-bill basis – the potential for posturing-based trouble here come budget time (depending on how Renua do) illustrates the very real possibility of multiple general elections between 2016 and 2021.

I'd say there could be some kind of deal done - FF might agree to abstain on no confidence motions in return for FG implementing (or not implementing) certain specific measures. It's possible, but not probable.

I can't see FF going into coalition with anyone as a junior partner, as they've seen repeatedly what happens to junior coalition partners.

The most likely outlook, in my view, is about 24 months of instability - like the early 80s with 2 to 3 Dails over a relatively short period.

Lockstep

If AAA/PBP get anything close to 9% nationwide, I'd be extremely surprised.

the groutch

probably not, but they'll have double digit support in Dublin (bar maybe Dublin South or whatever it's called now), and should take 7 or 8 seats.

hatrickpatrick

This isn't good news, but it's not disastrous either. With the combined strength of independents and other pro-reform parties nearing the mid-twenties, a small rise for them or a small drop for FG could see the next Dail having no majority grouping which can't be outvoted on legislation by others.

hatrickpatrick

Jawgap wrote: »

The most likely outlook, in my view, is about 24 months of instability - like the early 80s with 2 to 3 Dails over a relatively short period.

By what mechanism would that happen? Is it truly inconceivable that the Irish cabinet could abandon their ridiculous preconception that they have to win 100% of Dail votes 100% of the time or call an election?

Quin_Dub

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

By what mechanism would that happen? Is it truly inconceivable that the Irish cabinet could abandon their ridiculous preconception that they have to win 100% of Dail votes 100% of the time or call an election?

The problem is that the 1st time a minority government is defeated on a vote , the opposition will call for a vote of no-confidence - Not that they'd be guaranteed to win it , but repeatedly having to fend off no confidence votes would mean that absolutely nothing gets done.

Zubeneschamali

Jawgap wrote: »

FF might agree to abstain on no confidence motions in return for FG implementing (or not implementing) certain specific measures.

"Divert taxpayers money to my constituency or else" isn't really a position the FFers will want to say out loud, and they have no other actual positions that they care about, except Ministerial positions (where they get to divert taxpayers money to their friends and constituents without so much publicity).

So I think FF will prefer coalition + cash to support of a minority govt with no way to put their hands in our pockets.

Lockstep

The latest RedC poll has the following:
FG: 31%
Labour: 7%
FF: 19%
SF: 18%
Independents: 14%
AAA/PBP: 4%
SD: 3%
Renua: 1%
Greens: 2%
Others: 1%

Interesting stuff as it's so different from the B&A poll, with FG and AAA/PBP polling at a 5% difference.

Iwasfrozen

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

"Divert taxpayers money to my constituency or else" isn't really a position the FFers will want to say out loud, and they have no other actual positions that they care about, except Ministerial positions (where they get to divert taxpayers money to their friends and constituents without so much publicity).

So I think FF will prefer coalition + cash to support of a minority govt with no way to put their hands in our pockets.

Every politician is like that. Still better a crock who hasn't been a terrorist than a crock who has (SF I'm looking at you)