Abigail to bring strong winds Thursday 12th. Gusts to 120km

Iancar29

STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for Donegal, Galway, Leitrim, Mayo and Sligo
Southerly winds, later veering southwest then west, with mean speeds of 55 to 80 km/h, will gust between 100 and 120 km/h. Winds will be strongest near coastal areas, peaking Thursday evening into early Thursday night.

Issued:Wednesday 11 November 2015 08:33
Valid:Thursday 12 November 2015 09:00 to Friday 13 November 2015 06:00


STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Leinster, Cavan, Monaghan, Roscommon, Tipperary and Waterford
Southerly winds, later veering southwest then west, with mean speeds of 40 to 55 km/h, will gust between 90 and 100 km/h.

Issued:Wednesday 11 November 2015 08:00
Valid:Thursday 12 November 2015 09:00 to Friday 13 November 2015 03:00


STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Roscommon
Southerly winds, later veering southwest then west, with mean speeds of 45 to 55 km/h, will gust between 90 and 100 km/h.

Issued:Wednesday 11 November 2015 08:00
Valid:Thursday 12 November 2015 09:00 to Friday 13 November 2015 03:00


STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Clare, Cork, Kerry and Limerick
Southerly winds, later veering southwest then west, with mean speeds of 45 to 55 km/h, will gust between 90 and 100 km/h. Winds will be strongest near coastal areas.

Issued:Wednesday 11 November 2015 08:00
Valid:Thursday 12 November 2015 06:00 to Friday 13 November 2015 03:00

Max gusts as per the GFS hi res

maquiladora

Does't look like much of a threat on the latest GFS, well to the northwest, but still strong enough for western coastlines on the HIRLAM which explains the Orange warning from Met Eireann.



Mean winds on HIRLAM

Rebelbrowser

You might want to amend title to say Thursday 12th, not 13th. If it were slated for Friday 13th then I'd be more worried!

maquiladora

06Z ARPEGE gusts. Touching 130 km/h on the northwest coast.

ninebeanrows

Interesting to see how 12zs go, as 6z GFS went totally against trend.

Jpmarn

This storm has been christened Abigail by Met Eireann and the British Met Office. Mods can you incorporate the name of the storm into the thread title?

maquiladora

Weathercheck wrote: »

Interesting to see how 12zs go, as 6z GFS went totally against trend.

12Z GFS slipped south a little, but still keeps the low quite far off shore, only showing 100 km/h gusts grazing the coasts.
The higher resolution models probably have a better take on it at this stage.

Iancar29

Latest GFS hi res brings in the south coast in the warning too.

maquiladora

12Z HIRLAM a little weaker but still showing a period of strong winds hitting the west coast. Mean winds at 90 km/h here. Force 10.

JCX BXC

Warnings updated at 11am by met eireann.
Just 2 single warnings now, orange for north west coasts and yellow for everywhere else.

STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for Donegal, Galway, Leitrim, Mayo and Sligo
Southerly winds, later veering southwest then west, with mean speeds of 55 to 80 km/h, will gust between 100 and 120 km/h. Winds will be strongest near coastal areas, peaking Thursday evening into early Thursday night.

Issued:Wednesday 11 November 2015 10:00
Valid:Thursday 12 November 2015 09:00 to Friday 13 November 2015 06:00


STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Munster, Leinster, Cavan, Monaghan and Roscommon
Southerly winds, later veering southwest then west, with mean speeds of 45 to 55 km/h, will gust between 90 and 100 km/h. Winds will be strongest near coastal areas.

Issued:Wednesday 11 November 2015 10:00
Valid:Thursday 12 November 2015 06:00 to Friday 13 November 2015 06:00

Larbre34

Finally, a bit of weather.

JCX BXC

Larbre34 wrote: »

Finally, a bit of weather.

In fairness the past few days haven't been exactly calm.

Oneiric 3

This morning's GSM run has an interesting feature following on from Abigail on Friday morning with a sharp shortwave feature bringing even stronger winds to the west coast for a short time.



I am not sure about the GFS but the ECM has picked on this potential wave but does not make much of it, having it much further north and much weaker.

maquiladora

12Z ARPEGE. Gusts.

pad199207

Is the ARPEGE a bit off with the timing? or are they gusts from another system showing for sat eve?

maquiladora

pad199207 wrote: »

Is the ARPEGE a bit off with the timing? or are they gusts from another system showing for sat eve?

Those are total max gusts. Like accumulated rainfall.

Hooter23

The system on Saturday/Sunday is an ex-Hurricane so probably alot of rain winds dont look too bad though

ninebeanrows

GFS still going for that cheeky feature on Friday morning, one to watch

maquiladora

Quite a difference between the 12Z HIRLAM (left) and new 18Z HIRLAM (right)...

Oscar Bravo

ohhh major downgrade!

ninebeanrows

maquiladora wrote: »

Quite a difference between the 12Z HIRLAM (left) and new 18Z HIRLAM (right)...

Assume the 12z Hirlam was still using the 0z global EC data as the base, while the new 18z is incorporating the updated 12z EC.

ninebeanrows

There is that cheeky low on the HIRLAM, using the 12z EC global model data.




Interesting to see what the 18z WRF does using the 18z GFS data.

Oneiric 3

Weathercheck wrote: »

There is that cheeky low on the HIRLAM, using the 12z EC global model data.

The GSM 12z update still showing this feature too, but in a less intense form than the 6z run. Worth keeping an eye on all the same.

ninebeanrows

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

The GSM 12z update still showing this feature too, but in a less intense form than the 6z run. Worth keeping an eye on all the same.

Yea, i think 18z will ramp it up a little, as it will feed in the 18z GFS data

Oneiric 3

WV at 2200hrs

JCX BXC

So what should we expect for tomorrow?

ninebeanrows

Carnacalla wrote: »

So what should we expect for tomorrow?

In advance of the cold front, widespread gale force gusts. Widespread gusts of 50-60mph (80-100kph).

Then a swathe of severe winds will brush into the far north-west during the afternoon, perhaps touching 120kph in exposed coastal districts.

Tomorrow night will see a small short-wave trough approach the north-west coast, probably tightening the pressure gradient to its south, bringing another pulse of strong winds.

This bit remains uncertain, but another area of +50/60mph gusting winds pushing across southern Ireland.... with a slim potential for some higher gusts if the low becomes more developed on future model runs.

Spanish Eyes

Good, get rid of the fekin leaves off the trees in one go.

corsav6

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Good, get rid of the fekin leaves off the trees in one go.

None left to get rid of where I am in mayo

ninebeanrows

Just to need the second phase of strong winds is on Friday morning.

Mech1

Hi again, Just a gentle reminder with the upcoming predicted weather,

I provide the Dublin airport live air traffic control audio feed and you can listen in by clicking here:
http://www.liveatc.net/search/?icao=eidw My feed is the first of the 2 available.

Please dont clutter up the Weather forum discussing aircraft movements, go arounds etc, post on this
thread instead: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057359945

Many thanks.

allthedoyles

From accu weather :

Abigail, the first official named storm by the Met Office, will bring wind, rain and travel delays to parts of Ireland and the United Kingdom from Thursday int Foriday.
Ahead of this storm, there will be gusty showers across Ireland, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales and northern England on Wednesday before a brief period of dry weather arrives Wednesday night.
Even with showers in the forecast, abnormal warmth will continue across Ireland, England and Wales with high temperatures ranging from 12-16 C (53-60 F) and low temperatures of 7-11 C (44-52 F).


On Thursday, Abigail will track just north and west of Ireland and Scotland unleashing a soaking rain and howling winds on the region from late morning through the afternoon.
The heaviest rainfall and strongest winds will be focused from northern Ireland through Scotland. Wind gusts over 85 km/h (50 mph) are expected in these areas with wind gusts of 95-115 km/h (60-70 mph) possible over northern and western Scotland, as well as Orkney and Shetland. Exposed areas could experience even higher wind gusts during the worst of the storm.

Oscar Bravo

TAF for knock issued at 11pm shows the following, the strongest gust they are forecasting is between 10am and 2pm tomorrow at 49 knots , 35 knots between 2pm and 5pm with a big drop off in wind between 6pm and 8pm. plenty of CB activity forecast along with small or snow pellets. a right mix!

Spanish Eyes

corsav6 wrote: »

None left to get rid of where I am in mayo

They are still here though. Dropping a leaf at a time after a spate of them down last week. Just can't wait to see the back of em.

And when it's wet, OMG, slip sliding away!

Mayo and the West seems to get the brunt of any big winds. Hope ye'll be alright during the Winter.

JCX BXC

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

TAF for knock issued at 11pm shows the following, the strongest gust they are forecasting is between 10am and 2pm tomorrow at 49 knots , 35 knots between 2pm and 5pm with a big drop off in wind between 6pm and 8pm. plenty of CB activity forecast along with small or snow pellets. a right mix!

A southerly wind gusting 49kts will be fairly damaging to its operations!

Snow pellets? Sounds fun!

ninebeanrows

Mech1 wrote: »

Hi again, Just a gentle reminder with the upcoming predicted weather,

I provide the Dublin airport live air traffic control audio feed and you can listen in by clicking here:
http://www.liveatc.net/search/?icao=eidw My feed is the first of the 2 available.

Please dont clutter up the Weather forum discussing aircraft movements, go arounds etc, post on this
thread instead: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057359945

Many thanks.

:rolleyes: I'm really looking forward to landing into EIDW at 11.30 tomorrow morning :(

Might just get in before the strongest winds push in.

Hoping i don't get delayed, as looks hairy from midday-4pm

kittyn

Weathercheck wrote: »

:rolleyes: I'm really looking forward to landing into EIDW at 11.30 tomorrow morning :(

Might just get in before the strongest winds push in.

Hoping i don't get delayed, as looks hairy from midday-4pm

I'm flying out at 10.50 tomorrow morning ...... How bumpy will it be WC?

ninebeanrows

kittyn wrote: »

I'm flying out at 10.50 tomorrow morning ...... How bumpy will it be WC?

More difficulty in landing than getting out, as cross-wind issues.

Some mod, perhaps low level severe turbulence around Ireland tomorrow, the earlier you get out the better. If your out by midday you should just experience some mod turbulence, but during the afternoon there is the increased chance you could meet something more severe.

maquiladora

After the 18Z HIRLAM, downgrade is also evident on the 18Z ARPEGE.

JCX BXC

Nevertheless a nice 120km/h gust making it into west clare!

Rikand

Straight into Galway Bay - Dirty weekend away sounds in order

ninebeanrows

Abigail is undergoing RACY. Of note is the elongated centre of the storm.

Padster90s

Weathercheck wrote: »

Abigail is undergoing RACY. Of note is the elongated centre of the storm.

Excuse my ignorance, but whats RACY?

maquiladora

Max gusts got downgraded further on the latest ARPEGE. If this is correct then it should be just a regular Yellow warning for here. Quite stormy up around northwest Scotland still though.

stooge

Padster90s wrote: »

Excuse my ignorance, but whats RACY?

RApid CYclogenesis

Refers to a rapid depression where the pressure falls 24mb in 24hrs. Not sure it applies in Abigail's case though?

Discodog

So ME are saying heavy rain. XC are forecasting some rain - 3mm. yr.no little rain - 1mm

Who's right ?

Padster90s

Winds have picked up a bit in the last hour or so. Up West in Galway.

ComaWhite

Starting to get noisy near Buncrana now too.

otoolepw

"Slea Head to Mizen Head to Carnsore Point, winds north-northwesterly, one thousand and eighty millibars, falling slowly."

Padster90s

Wind has gone from normal breezy to strong breezes that whistle.

Larbre34

Force 5 gusting Force 8 already on Dublin bay, uncomfortable for sea crossings at this stage.