What is chance?

Hagar7

Seriously?
Here's the reason I ask and does anyone have a story like it,this I find utterly incredible.
Was at a funeral in Edinburgh 2 months ago,my aunt's sister died.
The minister told the following story which I and the folk at the funeral found utterly fascinating,her two sons confirmed it was true afterwards.

My aunt Mary lives in America,New York just now but previously lived in Santa Monica,Cal.
5 years ago her sister Helen was over for a visit and one day asked my aunt if she wanted to head down to Hollywood for a few hours,my aunt said aye so they both jumped in the car.
After walking down the boulevard for about 20 minutes my aunts sister shouted 'There's a woman across the road wearing my old coat I donated to a charity shop 4 months ago.'!!!
My aunt laughed and said 'no way can that be your old coat.'
So Helen and my aunt crossed the road and asked the woman if she would say where she bought it from.
The woman replied that she was in a charity shop in Edinburgh 2 months previously and spotted the coat which she liked and bought it,pronto.
My aunt and her sister couldnt believe it and explained what had happened to the woman.
What are the chances of that happening on any given day,at that exact time,with the population of the USA and happening exactly in Hollywood,talk about eerie,it must be billions to one anything like that happening.

dreamers75

Few years ago a bomb went somewhere in Africa and on the news was a reporter reporting on the news and in the background was a lad wearing a mate of mines St Pats jersey that he donated.

So chances are reasonably high.

(wish i had the pic to post)

NachoBusiness

The chances are very very slim, unless the woman was obsessed with your aunt's sister, followed her to the charity shop, bought the coat and had then followed her to the states.

Hagar7 wrote: »

.. so they both jumped in the car.

Just because they were in America doesn't mean they had to act like Starsky & Hutch.

Annasopra

I remember hearing a story about my Grandmother from Galway was in Canada and she admired a Womans scarf. They got chatting. Apparently they discovered the woman with the scarf was my Grandfathers girlfriend 50 years back.

Totofan99

Have a read of this OP:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Littlewood%27s_law

FortySeven

I was once in a taxi on the way to work and a phone started ringing under the passenger seat, I pulled it out and the driver said to answer it as someone must have left it. I answered it and it was my flatmate looking for his phone, he had lost it in a taxi. I thought I was on a wind up show.

Hagar7

Joeytheparrot wrote: »

I remember hearing a story about my Grandmother from Galway was in Canada and she admired a Womans scarf. They got chatting. Apparently they discovered the woman with the scarf was my Grandfathers girlfriend 50 years back.

That's incredible mate,again it must be a billion to one chance.

As for myself well it's 1971 and I'm on holiday in St Ives,I get the train to Birmingham and then from there to Motherwell.
As I was going on the train I noticed this lass struggle with a pram and I takes it off her and she gets her child on the train.
Anyway,I goes into a carriage and she asks if I'd mind if she could join me,I sez no bother at all.
After gabbing away for 10 minutes or so,I asked her where she was heading,she said she was going to her aunt's in Scotland after splitting from her hubby and that she'd never been to Scotland before,I asked her whereabouts and she said Hamilton and I told her my aunt lived there.
I then asked what her aunts name was and she replied Margaret Coffey from Fairhill and I said no wayyyyy,she asked why I said that and I told her my aunt Eileen's hubby has a sister called Margaret,it turned out that was the person she was going to live with,I'm thinking how eerie considering the population of Scotland was around 4.5 million and she just happened to be on the same train at that exact time.

Saw this earlier in The Guardian btw.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/12/sisters-separated-40-years-ago-in-korea-reunited-working-in-same-us-hospital?CMP=EMCNEWEML6619I2

Hagar7

Totofan99 wrote: »

Have a read of this OP:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Littlewood%27s_law

That's very interesting,cheers.

sbsquarepants

donegaLroad wrote: »

My uncle is a maths teacher and he couldn't figure out what the chances were.

Apparently they were quite good:D

discus

I was in the stags head in Dublin, in for an afternoons pint after getting outta work at 1630. Was chatting to some American tourists, who were typically enough talking about their ancestors from Ireland, how and when the great great aunt left Ireland to come to america etc. They mentioned she had worked in a pub as a maid, witnessed a murder in the lodgings above the pub and had then come across to America. I remember the oul lad behind the bar telling me a similar story about the Stags Head... called him over, got him in on the chat... sure he whipped out some book that he had cuttings and such. There was the story in a diary about that very incident. Made the americans day.

the groutch

I once won the Spanish Lottery without even buying a ticket.
What are the chances of that?

sbsquarepants

About 5 years back, my missus answered the phone in her parents house, she was collecting mail and watering plants while her parents were on holiday. It was a Australian woman looking for a guy with the same surname, she'd got the number out of the phone book, but there were hundreds of them - this was the first one she rang.
My missus being the yappy type, got talking to this woman who told her she was looking to find a guy she'd slept with 20 years previously to tell him he had a son! She asked her could she help in any way, my missus told her she'd try but it's a very common surname in Ireland so not to get her hopes up. The woman gave her some details, she comes home and tells me the story and I knew the guy, we were in school together, I passed on the womans number and he duly got in touch and shortly after flew to Australia to meet his kid for the first time. They have been in regular contact ever since!:)

TerrorFirmer

A while ago I was in Dublin and walking past the restaurant near where that girl died on the street after going into shock, after she accidentally ate satay sauce at said restaurant.

"It was here that poor girl died", I said to my girlfriend, and promptly stood on something. Looked under my runner and it was...a peanut.

Really strange, didn't quite know what to make of that coincidence.

diomed

There are probably many more coincidences that we do not spot at the time.
My sister was on holiday in Africa and recognised a woman she knew as a young girl about 50 years before. The woman had a hand deformity.

Birneybau

TerrorFirmer wrote: »

A while ago I was in Dublin and walking past the restaurant near where that girl died on the street after going into shock, after she accidentally ate satay sauce at said restaurant.

"It was here that poor girl died", I said to my girlfriend, and promptly stood on something. Looked under my runner and it was...a peanut.

Really strange, didn't quite know what to make of that coincidence.

That's nuts!

Boom_Bap

One day I drove past my first car. I was delighted to see that it was still going and it got me thinking back to my plan of trying to buy back my 3 or 4 cars I've had over the years if I ever got spare cash together.

5 minutes later, I seen my second car parked in a car park. I went straight home and looked at pictures as I was a little unsure of the reg and thought it couldn't possibly happen that I see my first 2 cars within minutes of each other. It was definitely it.

I've decided that if I ever see either again....well, mainly the second one, that I would make a cash offer to the current owner.

diomed

I was on a visit to the UK years ago, and took the London to Margate train. I got off at my station about half-way to Margate. About five days later I took the same train back to London and the same two backpackers were in the carriage. They said something foreign, possibly about co-incidences.

westcoast66

I went to London for a weekend about 10 years ago. I met this swedish girl on the train from Gatwick and had a chat with her about London. Next day I bumped into her in a shop near Leicester square!

sashafierce

This post has been deleted.

Maximus Alexander

Hagar7 wrote: »

As for myself well it's 1971 and I'm on holiday in St Ives

How the hell are you getting an Internet connection in 1971??

diomed

westcoast66 wrote: »

I went to London for a weekend about 10 years ago. I met this swedish girl on the train from Gatwick and had a chat with her about London. Next day I bumped into her in a shop near Leicester square!

That is called stalking.

Jawgap

Sat in a pub in Lerwick in Shetland a few years ago with a couple of colleagues enjoying a post-work, project completed celebratory pint.

Given it's late afternoon / early evening, the place was deserted apart from us. Door opens and in walks two guys I haven't seen from school who happen to be there diving.

It was a late one after that, and the flight the next day with a raging hangover was unforgettable for a whole different set of reasons!

osarusan

I got an email telling me a corrupt African politician had died and how there could be loads of money in it for me, and then a few days later I got ANOTHER EMAIL about a different corrupt politician with loads of money!

What are the chances!!!!!

ColeTrain

diomed wrote: »

I was on a visit to the UK years ago, and took the London to Margate train. I got off at my station about half-way to Margate. About five days later I took the same train back to London and the same two backpackers were in the carriage. They said something foreign, possibly about co-incidences.

More than likely "not that gobshiite again"

one man clappin

I went to the World Cup in USA in 1994 with a package tour.
I went with 3 other lads who I had not met before but one of the lads had contacts and phone numbers for people in the US.

So Ireland qualified for the second round and had to play Netherlands in Orlando. Myself and another lad decided that we would stay on and travel to Orlando and go to the match.
We got a phone numer for a man in Orlando and asked him would he mind putting us up for a few nights for the game.
Travelled down to Orlando and the man met us at the airport and I thought "**** I know this man". I could not figure out how I could though as it was my first time out of the country.
Turns out the American guy was in Ireland the year before on holidays. He was travelling at night from one town to another and got lost. He called into a pub I was drinking in and ended up staying the night getting drunk.

Robsweezie

the rapper?

Hagar7

the groutch wrote: »

I once won the Spanish Lottery without even buying a ticket.
What are the chances of that?

Allo señor,ees eez Pedro here,I am your long lost cousin from Glasgow,how are you.:D

Hagar7

sbsquarepants wrote: »

About 5 years back, my missus answered the phone in her parents house, she was collecting mail and watering plants while her parents were on holiday. It was a Australian woman looking for a guy with the same surname, she'd got the number out of the phone book, but there were hundreds of them - this was the first one she rang.
My missus being the yappy type, got talking to this woman who told her she was looking to find a guy she'd slept with 20 years previously to tell him he had a son! She asked her could she help in any way, my missus told her she'd try but it's a very common surname in Ireland so not to get her hopes up. The woman gave her some details, she comes home and tells me the story and I knew the guy, we were in school together, I passed on the womans number and he duly got in touch and shortly after flew to Australia to meet his kid for the first time. They have been in regular contact ever since!:)

What are the chances of that considering the surname being so popular.

weemcd

So one day I had a ball of change in my bag and I was gonna go over to the shop and put it in the coin sorting machine, get a voucher from it and use it in the shop to buy snacks. I had no idea what was in the bag, I just threw it all into the machine, a few coins were rejected, different currency etc. Anyway, I get my voucher and walk around the shop and pick 3 random items, not even thinking about the price. I got to the till and handed over the items, when it came to paying for them, the amount on the voucher from the machine was the exact amount the items I picked cost. The numbers of it blew me away, I could have picked anything in a huge shop, but that specific combination cost exactly the same as the voucher I had. Weird

The Corinthian

What are the chances of your parents meeting? Falling in love (or otherwise having sex)? Of that particular sperm from your father fusing with that particular egg from your mother? And the chances of both sets of grandparents getting together and making your parents?

Now ask yourself, had it not worked out that way; had your parents never met, or a different sperm reached the egg... how would it change the above questions?

dashoonage

7

Earthhorse

I like Terry Pratchett's bit about odds: "Scientists have calculated that the chances of something so patently absurd actually existing are millions to one.
But magicians have calculated that million-to-one chances crop up nine times out of ten."

There was a woman who once avoided rolling 7 after 154 rolls on the craps table. The odds of doing that are 1 in 1.56 trillion. Now all you need to do is calculate how many people have rolled at the craps table to determine whether it was overdue or not.

http://content.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1901663,00.html

The Corinthian wrote: »

What are the chances of your parents meeting? Falling in love (or otherwise having sex)? Of that particular sperm from your father fusing with that particular egg from your mother? And the chances of both sets of grandparents getting together and making your parents?

Now ask yourself, had it not worked out that way; had your parents never met, or a different sperm reached the egg... how would it change the above questions?

You're right! I'd be taller!

libelula

I love this one- by yer man whatzisface...

“Not only have you been lucky enough to be attached since time immemorial to a favored evolutionary line, but you have also been extremely- make that miraculously- fortunate in your personal ancestry.
Consider the fact that for 3.8 billion years, a period of time older than the Earth's mountains and rivers and oceans, everyone of your forbears on both sides has been attractive enough to find a mate, healthy enough to reproduce, and sufficiently blessed by fate and circumstances to live long enough to do so.
Not one of your pertinent ancestors was squashed, devoured, drowned, starved, stranded, stuck fast, untimely wounded, or otherwise deflected from it's life quest of delivering a tiny charge of genetic material to the right partner at the right moment in order to perpetuate the only possible sequence of hereditary combinations that could result - evetually, astoundingly, and all to briefly- in you.”

HiGlo

Ha! Loving these stories....

I was reading them all thinking, I don't have a story to tell....

But I do! haha About 3 years ago or so I went to Paris for a few days to visit a friend who was living there. We were out and about one day, can't remember where we were on our way to, and had hopped on the metro. We switched lines along the way but when we got on the train we realised we were going the wrong way so got off at the next stop. Debarked the train and there's a girl I know sitting there! She was an intern in our company about 4 years earlier and hadn't seen or heard of her since....
In a city of whatever million people, I took the wrong train and bumped into the only other person I know in the city! haha

Hagar7

The Corinthian wrote: »

What are the chances of your parents meeting? Falling in love (or otherwise having sex)? Of that particular sperm from your father fusing with that particular egg from your mother? And the chances of both sets of grandparents getting together and making your parents?

Now ask yourself, had it not worked out that way; had your parents never met, or a different sperm reached the egg... how would it change the above questions?

To be or not to be,that is the two questions.

Hagar7

HiGlo wrote: »

Ha! Loving these stories....

I was reading them all thinking, I don't have a story to tell....

But I do! haha About 3 years ago or so I went to Paris for a few days to visit a friend who was living there. We were out and about one day, can't remember where we were on our way to, and had hopped on the metro. We switched lines along the way but when we got on the train we realised we were going the wrong way so got off at the next stop. Debarked the train and there's a girl I know sitting there! She was an intern in our company about 4 years earlier and hadn't seen or heard of her since....
In a city of whatever million people, I took the wrong train and bumped into the only other person I know in the city! haha

That puts me in mind of the time I visited Renton Cemetery on Sept 18th,1980, to visit Jimi's graveside,( met his dad too).
Anyways,the day before,I took a wonder around Seattle and saw the was a huge Zoo so I took a stroll over and the first people I met in the place came from Paisley,just 18 miles from my own town.

The Corinthian

Earthhorse wrote: »

You're right! I'd be taller!

Actually you wouldn't be you. It would be someone else, but the discussion on the unlikeliness of them ever existing would be the same.

Hagar7 wrote: »

To be or not to be,that is the two questions.

It's one really. You just don't know which one until it's asked.

This Fat Girl Runs

Around 8 years ago I went to Paris for a week. Got to know the people staying in the hostel and we all went out for drinks one night. At the pub, we met a group of Irish lads on holiday. Turns out one of them lived in the same apartment block as I did.

What are the odds?

Satts

Hagar7 wrote: »

Seriously?
Here's the reason I ask and does anyone have a story like it,this I find utterly incredible.
Was at a funeral in Edinburgh 2 months ago,my aunt's sister died.

What are the chances of your Aunt's sister also being your Aunt ?

Maximus Alexander

Satts wrote: »

What are the chances of your Aunt's sister also being your Aunt ?

Surely that would depend on how many sisters your parents have?

Eugene Norman

Maximus Alexander wrote: »

Surely that would depend on how many sisters your parents have?

Unless there was adoption or something an aunts sisters, being also one of your parents' sisters, is an aunt.

Eugene Norman

Totofan99 wrote: »

Have a read of this OP:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Littlewood%27s_law

I think littlewood is exagerating how many "events" we would notice. Not one per second. But the idea still stands, it just would take longer than a month.

Also people forget the numerator. An article I was reading about two brothers killed in 2003 in Finland, cycling at the exact same time – pretty much – at opposite ends of a village by two different but related drivers ( related but not from the village and in the village without knowledge of each other being there) pointed out that the real thing you should take away from the story -- where the odds of it happening to the brothers are indeed very very low -- is that it was in Finland in 2003. The article was written in 2010 in the US but the author knew about it because it became news in the US, and worldwide. Not front page but widely reported.

In short how ever small the odds they needed to be multiplied by the number of days in say a decade* and number of cyclists on the planet.


* assuming something like this happens once a decade.

Maximus Alexander

Eugene Norman wrote: »

Unless there was adoption or something an aunts sisters, being also one of your parents' sisters, is an aunt.

Your aunt's sister could be your mother, so not an aunt.

RoadhouseBlues

About 10 years ago I worked in Pittsburgh for a while. I was in the middle of city one evening at the bus stop. This American and his daughter came up to me looking for directions. They were from another state. I said sorry and explained I had just moved over from Ireland and was just finding my way myself. They asked me what part of Ireland I was from, and proceeded to tell me about the B & B they stayed at a month earlier that is just 10 mins from my home place:-)
Also when my mother died, I was leaving the hospital and I had no money. I was broke. I had been driving to the hospital daily and I needed money for petrol. I walked down the steps of the hospital and was heading to the car wondering what I was going to do, and just happened to glance down and found 20 Euros on the ground. Was it luck or chance or something else. I will never know.

Eugene Norman

Maximus Alexander wrote: »

Your aunt's sister could be your mother, so not an aunt.

He would have said mother. This isn't a riddle.

Maximus Alexander

Eugene Norman wrote: »

He would have said mother. This isn't a riddle.

It's After Hours - it can be a riddle if we want it to be.

Anyway, he was presumably talking about his parent's brother's wife's sister. An aunt's sister, but not an aunt.

Hagar7

Maximus Alexander wrote: »

It's After Hours - it can be a riddle if we want it to be.

Anyway, he was presumably talking about his parent's brother's wife's sister. An aunt's sister, but not an aunt.

That is correct MA,it saves any arguments.:)

Satts

Maximus Alexander wrote: »

It's After Hours - it can be a riddle if we want it to be.

Anyway, he was presumably talking about his parent's brother's wife's sister. An aunt's sister, but not an aunt.

His parent's brother's wife would be his Aunt in law and not his Aunt.

An Aunt in law is a completely different animal.

Satts

Maximus Alexander wrote: »

Surely that would depend on how many sisters your parents have?

No, your Aunt's sister is still your Aunt.
The very fact your Aunt would have a sister suggests the parent had at least two sisters. If they had more or not is irrelevant.

Senna

My uncle was in a restaurant in New York and the waiter turned out to be a good friend of mine who grew up across the road from me. That's the small world part of the story. Later that evening my uncle went to Giant Stadium to watch a game and the same friend was sitting in the row of seats behind him, in an 80000 seater stadium.

Notavirus.exe

I won a race against a million other little sperms.