The Daily bets, Banter & Accumulators thread III

Whosthis

Not really sure where else to post this so here goes. I do very little gambling these days and virtually nothing on football so looking for a more informed opinion. Are the bookies massively overpricing Leicester or is it WOM dictating? Best priced 4/1 away to Arsenal on Sunday looks a little ridiculous to me. Arsenal with one win in their last 5 PL games, Leicester with 4 wins and a draw are certainly the form team. For Sunday's fixture the home v away form is identical in the last 5, 3 wins, 1 loss and 1 draw a piece. Looking at injury and suspension lists it appears that the Arsenal squad is somewhat depleted whilst Leicester are in fine fettle.

With the facts out of the way its time for some supposition. Looks to me like Arsenal have hit their regular midseason slump whilst against any form of logic or reasoning, the preseason relegation contenders Leicester are ready to defy their doubters once again, already sitting five points clear at the summit.

4/1 looks ridiculous to me so unless anybody can persuade me otherwise I believe it's the bet of the weekend and I'll keep nibbling at it unless it's dramatically shortened.

Edit: I meant to post that in the "Daily Bets, Banter, etc" thread. Fat fingered the link on the mobile site, feel free to move.

-=al=-

retalivity wrote: »

Celta to score fh yes @1.9

At home to sevilla in the 2nd leg cdr semi final, 4-0 down already, expect them to come out fighting

Got on this one myself

inforfun

Whosthis wrote: »

Not really sure where else to post this so here goes. I do very little gambling these days and virtually nothing on football so looking for a more informed opinion. Are the bookies massively overpricing Leicester or is it WOM dictating? Best priced 4/1 away to Arsenal on Sunday looks a little ridiculous to me. Arsenal with one win in their last 5 PL games, Leicester with 4 wins and a draw are certainly the form team. For Sunday's fixture the home v away form is identical in the last 5, 3 wins, 1 loss and 1 draw a piece. Looking at injury and suspension lists it appears that the Arsenal squad is somewhat depleted whilst Leicester are in fine fettle.

With the facts out of the way its time for some supposition. Looks to me like Arsenal have hit their regular midseason slump whilst against any form of logic or reasoning, the preseason relegation contenders Leicester are ready to defy their doubters once again, already sitting five points clear at the summit.

4/1 looks ridiculous to me so unless anybody can persuade me otherwise I believe it's the bet of the weekend and I'll keep nibbling at it unless it's dramatically shortened.

About the bolded part..... Arsenal also only lost 1 in those last 5 when they are left with 10 men on the pitch vs Chelsea.

Arsenal the only team this season who did to Leicester what most people would have expected 75% of the teams in the epl to do before the start of the season, i.e giving Leicester a hiding (2-5 in september)

But yeah.. if i had to choose between leicester winning at Arsenal @5 or nec winning at home to PSV (better odds though @5.5) i wouldnt think 2x

retalivity

African champions league, vipers vs enyimba @2.0

Uganda champs vs Nigeria champs, vipers are missing some of their best players... http://mobi.supersport.com/football/caf-champions-league/news/160212/Big_Match_Feature_Vipers_v_Enyimba

inforfun

You are a brave man if you bet on away teams in Africa.

DoctaDee

Something that struck me over the last 2 nights playing Paulista A2 & A3 were the number of BTTS that came in. Just did a quick trawl of the midweek games to show

Paulista A2


Paulista A3


There's a full schedule of games at the weekend - so it maybe something that you'd keep an eye on

Dio On The Doubles

Alloa have somehow been allowed to make their pitch 10 yards narrower for the visit of Rangers tomorrow at the request of their new manager.

http://talkingbaws.com/2016/02/alloa-narrow-pitch-by-5-yards-on-each-side-mark-warburton-isnt-happy/








While Aloa lost by a big margain against Rangers the last two encounters, I think the new manager and narrow pitch will reduce it this time.

Rangers last four games in a row have gone under 2.5 goals. In fact only one of them has gone over 1.5 goals.

http://ie.soccerway.com/matches/2016/02/13/scotland/first-division/alloa-athletic-fc/rangers-fc/2047556/head2head/

I've been taking a quick look on oddschecker and have taken some of

Alloa +3 handicap @2.05 on Coral.

It's around the @1.8 mark on most other books. Expecting this price to get knocked in.

9de5q7tsr8u2im

Im laughing at the amount of people backing leicester to win at the emirates, a draw could be reasonable.. But a win? No way after the thumping they got at home at the king power stadium. Arsenal starting to pick up the pieces now and their motor is back on after the bournemouth game!

xredmanlfcx

LuckyDude12 wrote: »

Im laughing at the amount of people backing leicester to win at the emirates, a draw could be reasonable.. But a win? No way after the thumping they got at home at the king power stadium. Arsenal starting to pick up the pieces now and their motor is back on after the bournemouth game!

I fancied Leicester to avoid defeat at Man City last week and backed them to do so also.

I fancy Arsenal to avoid defeat this week. Arsenal won't defend as badly as City and will be 100% focused for this.

Dio On The Doubles

Price on Alloa already gone in to @1.85 on Coral. Powers are giving @1.67. I think even the @1.8 prices will start to drop this afternoon.

As low as @1.48 on matchbook although I don't know if that can be read into.

mailburner

LuckyDude12 wrote: »

If leicester win their next two games ill happily give every member here 1 million each

LuckyDude12 wrote: »

Im laughing at the amount of people backing leicester to win at the emirates, a draw could be reasonable.. But a win? No way after the thumping they got at home at the king power stadium. Arsenal starting to pick up the pieces now and their motor is back on after the bournemouth game!

wouldnt trust arsenal myself and leicesters away record is better than arsenal at home
we're all potentially 500k richer already so the entire forum is rooting for the foxes:P

magherakid

Dundee v St Johnstone
BTTS 5/6

Sporting Gijon v Rayo Vallecano
Over 2.5 Goals 5/6

Whosthis

LuckyDude12 wrote: »

Im laughing at the amount of people backing leicester to win at the emirates, a draw could be reasonable.. But a win? No way after the thumping they got at home at the king power stadium. Arsenal starting to pick up the pieces now and their motor is back on after the bournemouth game!

As I said in my post I'm no expert on football betting but win, lose or draw the 4/1 about Leicester looks far too big to me. I'd have thought more 5/2 or 11/4 tops. I get your argument about the 5-2 spanking but that was all the way back in September and I think basing an analysis on that result is flawed logic.

Edit: Just to add that using a victory over Bournemouth as a benchmark of form wouldn't be my idea of a sound position to take, they may as well have beaten Chelsea .

clever user name

Like someone said above, Arsenal won't defend as bad as City did. Leicester double chance or draw no bet might be a decent shout, but I really can't see them winning. This is probably Arsenals biggest game of the season so far, they cannot afford to lose.

byronbay2

Going to concentrate on the 2 big Sunday matches (no, not AV-LPool!) this weekend. Leicester over-priced as always at 4/1 to beat Arsenal but, Arsenal being my 2nd-favourite team, I will probably let Leic win unbacked this week. It should be an exciting match and Arsenal's possession football could play into Leic's hands but Arsenal are so dangerous that I can't have a strong opinion either way - one to watch rather than bet on, for me!

On the other hand, Man City were so bad last week that I am very keen to take them on again. Yaya is a real defensive liability at this stage (not great going forward either, atm), City are missing De Bruyne terribly and Spurs are a brilliant counter-attacking team. Kompany (possibly) coming back is the big imponderable - badly needed by City but could be rusty, if he even plays - but I would still be very happy to Lay Man City @ 2.10 on BF, which gives us the Spurs DC @ 1.86, including the 5% deduction.

Lasagna Diarra

Cambuur DC @ 1.85

5 losses in a row

Portadown DC @ 1.95

lost their last 6 league games

Whosthis

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

Portadown DC @ 1.95

lost their last 6 league games

I was looking at that game the other day, Portadown lost their last six, Linfield have won their last six. Based only on that you'd have to say Linfield but results in that league appear to be cointosses and if you dig a little deeper into the recent form the Portadown DC looks a solid enough bet.

DoctaDee

Looking to Ligue 2 for this +1.5 team goal accum: Ajaccio\Auxerre\Nimes & Red Star @ 49.2

Edit .. nah 3/4 .. Nimes shut out 0-0

fuzzydunlop85

Fancy benfica to turn over Porto tonight @ 5/4.Porto gone a bit off the rails lately. Smaller on Jonas/mitrogleau wincasts.

inforfun

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

Cambuur DC @ 1.85

5 losses in a row

Portadown DC @ 1.95

lost their last 6 league games

Manager left earlier this week and the only guy who scores has left for Willem II a few weeks ago.

Lasagna Diarra

inforfun wrote: »

Manager left earlier this week and the only guy who scores has left for Willem II a few weeks ago.

Van de Streek? I remember this guy playing in the Estonian league and now he's a starter in the Eredivisie, that should say a lot about Cambuur's level I guess

shmeee

Rayo Vallecano - Over 4.5
Sporting Gijon v Rayo Vallecano
(Team Corners) 12/02/2016
10/11

Looks like decent value to me.

mailburner

benfica 13/10 won 9 from 10 at home

Whosthis

Whosthis wrote: »

Stake 20.00
Returns 1,246.08
Open

Dortmund vs Hannover
Dortmund - Match Result
1.12
--
--
Open

Paris St-G vs Lille
Paris St-G - Match Result
1.35
--
--
Open

Arsenal vs Leicester
Leicester - Match Result
4.6
--
--
Open

Pescara vs Vicenza
Pescara - Match Result
1.72
--
--
Open

St Pauli vs RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig - Match Result
2.05
--
--
Open

Benfica vs Porto
Benfica - Match Result
2.1
--
--
Open

Augsburg vs Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich - Match Result
1.25
--
--
Open

Barcelona vs Celta Vigo
Barcelona - Match Result
1.07
--
--
Open

An 8 timer for the weekend.
Been a very long time since I've placed bets like this. Games are Fri/Sat/Sun. Apologies for the formatting, copy paste from mobile site.

Fell at the first hurdle. St Pauli won 1-0. Best I can hope for now is the other 7 win and I get my stake back. (Insert crying emoji here)

shmeee

shmeee wrote: »

Rayo Vallecano - Over 4.5
Sporting Gijon v Rayo Vallecano
(Team Corners) 12/02/2016
10/11

Looks like decent value to me.

winner before half time

Now is the time to say Easy

magherakid

Well in shmee

9de5q7tsr8u2im

Schalke are brutal away from home cant see them getting back into this game..
How the hell are they 4th should be barely in top 10, very inconsistent team!
Hoping the DC comes in but looks unlikely..

xredmanlfcx

LuckyDude12 wrote: »

Schalke are brutal away from home cant see them getting back into this game..
How the hell are they 4th should be barely in top 10, very inconsistent team!
Hoping the DC comes in but looks unlikely..

1-1.

Lasagna Diarra

fukking hell Cambuur, they held on for 80 min then crumbled

inforfun

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

Van de Streek? I remember this guy playing in the Estonian league and now he's a starter in the Eredivisie, that should say a lot about Cambuur's level I guess

No. i meant Ogbeche.
VS Streek did well last year, scored quite a few but is now just as miserable as the rest of his team.