Dublin V. Mayo impartial predictions

Johngoose · 29-08-2015 6:51pm #1

Who Will win tomorrow in SFC semi-final. Try and be as impartial/neutral as possible. Thanks

DDC1990 · 29-08-2015 7:00pm

A lot of family from Dublin and my Girlfriend is from Mayo. Big personal interest in the game.

From a Kerry point of view I think we match up better with Mayo , and with the GF beside me I'll have to cheer for Mayo.

I think everything has to go right for Mayo to win. I think they will have some tactic with AOS up their sleeve that hasn't been shown yet, possibly with him play in a defensive Midfield role, cutting out options to Flynn and Connolly. If the go with him exclusively at FF then I think Dublin will win.

Dublin have a decent defensive system to go with their potent attack now. I think they put in a huge performance tomorrow and win by 5 or 6 points.

Ultimately I expect them to beat Kerry in the Final, but tomorrow should be the first sighting of how good they are,

Baggy Trousers · 29-08-2015 7:01pm

Mayo 2-13
Dublin 1-12

Big Pussy Bonpensiero · 29-08-2015 7:11pm

Genuinely don't know. Not buying this either about how Mayo will have to be perfect to win. Don't think there's a much between the teams as all the match previews are suggesting. Think Mayo 2-9 are as strong a unit as I've ever seen, and are very capable of neutralising the Dub forwards just like they did in 2012.
Dublin are, overall, a better team, but not by much. If this match was played 10 times I think Dublin would only win 6 of them.
A lot will depend of the full forward lines of both teams, that's where the winning of the game will be. Goes without saying that Cluxton's kickouts will have to be stopped and Dublin will need a plan for AO'S.

If I had to call it, which I don't really like doing tbh when I think both teams are so evenly matched, I would plump for Mayo by 2. Perhaps a bit of Western bias in me..

Anyway, hoping for a spectacle, will be in the Hill giving a (little) bit of support to the men in green & red

johnny osbourne · 29-08-2015 7:14pm

mayo for sam

Paddysnapper · 29-08-2015 7:21pm

Anybody but Dublin!!!!!:rolleyes:

threeball · 29-08-2015 7:24pm

The outcome will depend on whether Dublin are capable of coming up through the gears after a year of walkovers. Mayo have at least had some sort of test against Galway and Donegal but Dublin have had none.
If they can raise the game I think they have the better 15 and more attacking options and expect them to win.
I'm not sure if they can though as they've failed quite regularly to do so in the past and Mayo are much better than the Donegal team that beat them last year. Narrow win either way and impossible to call.

Dirty Dingus McGee · 29-08-2015 7:28pm

Hard to call because Dublin haven't really given a full performance this year however it must be hard to push yourself when you know your going to win playing in 2nd or 3rd gear.I'm expecting them to be close to their best tomorrow

My own opinion is that Dublin based on the talent they have at their very best they are 7 or 8 points better than every other team in Ireland and would have comfortably beaten Kerry in last years final (had they got to it) and will do so should they get past Mayo.

I'd love to see Mayo win and I think Aidan O'Shea playing full forward has added a huge amount to them and Diarmuid O'Connor looks like a really good addition to the team and Tom Parson has been excellent for them. I think they are a better team this year than they were last year.However I just think Dublin have too many classy players and if they click they can destroy any team.

I hope I'm completely wrong and it's an absolute classic and goes right to the wire and Mayo win but I think Dublin might win with a degree of comfort by around 7 points.

Whoever wins this match I think will win the All Ireland as Kerry look very dicey at the back and some team is going to take advantage of it at some stage.

jjdonegal · 29-08-2015 8:02pm

Dublin have never been as quiet. This time last year, a fan on the HStand forum speculated that it was something like 22/23 games to 5 in a row but not a murmur of that type of rubbish this year! Have been unsure all week how it would go but I now believe that we could see Dublin put on a masterclass tomorrow.
Good luck to both sets of fans travelling from near and far and lets enjoy what will hopefully be a cracker.

Xenophile · 29-08-2015 8:09pm

As a Tipp supporter I say Mayo have flattered to deceive not enough competition in Connaught. Dublin to win by six or seven points.

Tipp to win the Minor against all the odds, put a few € on them they were a very good price earlier in the week.

Just noticed you will not even get 2/1 on Tipp at the moment.

Johngoose · 29-08-2015 8:16pm

Very interesting opinions so far. I'm not going to taint the thread by giving my own hunch yet. I will be throwing a few quid on the game. I got burned recently had Kerry -4 against Tyrone!😪

ProudDUB · 29-08-2015 8:21pm

No such things as an impartial opinion imo. Even if you are not from one of the competing counties, odds are you'll still be swayed by your opinion of Dublin, or Mayos AI heartbreaks over the years. And that will affect your prediction of who you think will win, even if it is subconscious. I think that most "neutrals" want Mayo to win the All Ireland, due to their history, and that is why they most of them are picking Mayo to win tomorrow...heart over head if you will.

I think that Dublin will win for 5 reasons.

1. They have better players overall, from 1-15, and on the bench. The bench is not as good as it was in previous years, but it's still damm good.

2. They have better forwards. Bernard Brogan and Dean Rock are both in the running to finish the year as top scorer. For all the kefuffle about Aidan O'Shea's new position, he isn't even in the top 10. And I haven't even mentioned Diarmuid Connolly yet.

3. They have more players who are more likely to step up and up their game for the big occasion, as opposed to letting the occasion and pressure get to them.

4. Stephen Cluxton. 'Nuff said !

5. Because I said so.

29-08-2015 8:33pm

Mayo's defensive performance against Donegal impressed me, Donegal were far from the team they were in their prime but Mayo actually looked solid defensively against a team with the capability to do damage. Over the last few years Mayo were never going to win an All-Ireland as for all the improvements brought about under Horan their naivety at the back meant they would always concede goals in the big games. Having said that Mayo were very open against Galway and Sligo even if they never looked like losing those games. I think Mayo need to use a sweeper in defence, man for man I'm unconvinced they have found an answer at 3 or 6.

Finding the correct balance between negating Dublin's kick out and operating a sweeper will be crucial for Mayo.

Dublin won't be too dissatisfied that they had a scratchy performance against Fermanagh. Against Westmeath though they got frustrated very easily against a kind of improvised blanket defence.

Mayo have a decent record against Dublin but that is pretty much irrelevant really. Dublin were so far off the pace in 2012, they were going to lose against the first decent team they played, 2013 Dublin edged them without being on top form. 2006 is too far back to have any relevance.

Dublin trounced Mayo in Castlebar earlier in the year. A player who did damage that night was Kevin McMenamin and his direct running late in the game along with the engine of Michael Dara McCauley could be key in a game likely to be at break neck pace. We always see the Dublin substitutes tack on the points when 15-20 points ahead and the damage was done when they emptied the bench against Donegal last year but the benches could make the difference tomorrow. Mayo must have the advantage with 15-20 minutes left.

For Jim Gavin its a defining game, he built a strong reputation up to the Donegal match last year, tomorrow will show if Dublin have learned the lessons and come back stronger. For Mayo, its the first year of the new management, they have found a couple of new players here and there but its essentially the guts of the same team for the last number of years. They will be strong again next year regardless but there is only so often you can go close, lose tomorrow and its hard to see where they can find the extra elements to be contenders again next year.

Expectations are high for this game as a spectacle I hope it delivers.

Draw at half time, Dublin at full time 10/1 could be worth a small bet.

greensausage · 29-08-2015 8:35pm

Draw!

The_Honeybadger · 29-08-2015 8:52pm

Very hard one to call. Dublin have more firepower than Mayo, but I wonder if Mayo have a plan to shut down cluxtons kick outs and stop ball going in to the forwards. They should have the better of midfield and could really cause the dubs problems if they get their tactics right. Ultimately though, Dublin have top notch forwards who can score at will with the right ball and Mayo don't. I expect Dublin to pull through, possibly after a replay.

I don't think the majority of Kerry fans (including myself) care who we play in the final. I think we have a 50/50 chance of beating either if we have a fully fit team. Very little between the three teams. We have been basically written off by some after struggling against Tyrone which is exactly the way fitzmaurice will want it going into the final.

Nidgeweasel · 29-08-2015 8:58pm

Very hard to call.

On Dublin, I'm not buying into this bollocks following the Fermanagh game. I think Dublin have been very clever and have been delighted about how it's been played down. There was such tripe doing the rounds about how Dublin were off par and there was a ridiculous amount of talk on the amount Dublin conceded. The only point worth mentioning is that Dublin had Fermanagh beat out the gate without ever having to get out of first gear. Yes they conceded two goals (one after pushing cluxton over the line ffs) and the end score line may have suggested a battle but it was anything but.

The thing that does strike me as a neutral is that it's seems very quiet on the Dublin side of things. Donegal knocked the wind out of the dubs last year in a big way and it's most likely as a result of that. Lets not forget that Dublin were laughably being billed as the greatest team of all time last year on their procession to Sam, not by any Dubs who knew their salt but certainly by the clousters who wouldn't know their local club if it smacked them in the face and the giddy balloons in the media. That will have rubbed off on the team in the aftermath.

So there is now a question mark over this Dublin team which needs answering. That makes them even more dangerous. We all know they are able to play great stuff and are enjoyable to watch but I'm very much looking forward to seeing how they handle the type of physical and tactical test that this Mayo side will give them on the back of last year's defeat to Donegal.

On the game itself, my gut reaction is given the riches Dublin have in the forward line they will be able to come across a score or two that wee bit easier and that could make a massive difference.

Neither team traditionally puts a huge emphasis on defence but you can see the Dubs have become more switched on and focused now with COS in front of the D and their backs not going wanderly wagon every two minutes. Also what I found telling from Mayo against Donegal it was so evident that they were totally focused on not conceding a goal. They knew Donegal wouldn't win without one and were set up well to prevent that. I don't think Barry Moran was any great shakes particularly at the start but although he's been named iirc I cannot see him playing as a sweeper again.

The point is if both teams set up with a renewed focus on defence, which one of the two sides do you think will generate and take a goal chance that bit easier? Again it has to be the Dubs.

That being said, there's no Dublin player who I would think will be head and shoulders above his opposite number. That Mayo back 6 are are outstanding defenders in their own right, hard in the tackle and seriously strong. On the flip side ROC is going to struggle with AOS in a big way. That would be the worry for me from a Dublin point of view. But on the collective Dublin just seem to have that bit too much in all quarters and they've got Cluxton.

Mayo have the superior midfield but again, Dublin have Cluxton so that becomes less of an issue if they can geenrate a score form their wn kick-outs as they typically do.

On that basis you'd think it'd be a Dublin win BUT and it's a big but- This Mayo team is a different animal than all those who have gone before. Even last year, there is a different feel to them now. They seem cold, hard and steely and you feel that there is a belief in them this year that they have had enough, that this is the year and they're going to to do it themselves. Also, their management have been hugely impressive thus far especially with the speed of decision making in play. I'd rank them above Gavin personally thus far.

While my head is leaning towards the Dubs and any logic assessment would say the Dubs I just cannot shake this feeling about Mayo and that they're either going to win the All Ireland this year or will die trying to do so. On that basis I'm having my tenner on Mayo.

I want a Dublin v Kerry final however so hope i'm wrong. Cannot wait tomorrow it's going to be a war.

Big Pussy Bonpensiero · 29-08-2015 9:26pm

Nidgeweasel wrote: »

Very hard to call.

On Dublin, I'm not buying into this bollocks following the Fermanagh game. I think Dublin have been very clever and have been delighted about how it's been played down. There was such tripe doing the rounds about how Dublin were off par and there was a ridiculous amount of talk on the amount Dublin conceded. The only point worth mentioning is that Dublin had Fermanagh beat out the gate without ever having to get out of first gear. Yes they conceded two goals (one after pushing cluxton over the line ffs) and the end score line may have suggested a battle but it was anything but.

The thing that does strike me as a neutral is that it's seems very quiet on the Dublin side of things. Donegal knocked the wind out of the dubs last year in a big way and it's most likely as a result of that. Lets not forget that Dublin were laughably being billed as the greatest team of all time last year on their procession to Sam, not by any Dubs who knew their salt but certainly by the clousters who wouldn't know their local club if it smacked them in the face and the giddy balloons in the media. That will have rubbed off on the team in the aftermath.

So there is now a question mark over this Dublin team which needs answering. That makes them even more dangerous. We all know they are able to play great stuff and are enjoyable to watch but I'm very much looking forward to seeing how they handle the type of physical and tactical test that this Mayo side will give them on the back of last year's defeat to Donegal.

On the game itself, my gut reaction is given the riches Dublin have in the forward line they will be able to come across a score or two that wee bit easier and that could make a massive difference.

Neither team traditionally puts a huge emphasis on defence but you can see the Dubs have become more switched on and focused now with COS in front of the D and their backs not going wanderly wagon every two minutes. Also what I found telling from Mayo against Donegal it was so evident that they were totally focused on not conceding a goal. They knew Donegal wouldn't win without one and were set up well to prevent that. I don't think Barry Moran was any great shakes particularly at the start but although he's been named iirc I cannot see him playing as a sweeper again.

The point is if both teams set up with a renewed focus on defence, which one of the two sides do you think will generate and take a goal chance that bit easier? Again it has to be the Dubs.

That being said, there's no Dublin player who I would think will be head and shoulders above his opposite number. That Mayo back 6 are are outstanding defenders in their own right, hard in the tackle and seriously strong. On the flip side ROC is going to struggle with AOS in a big way. That would be the worry for me from a Dublin point of view. But on the collective Dublin just seem to have that bit too much in all quarters and they've got Cluxton.

Mayo have the superior midfield but again, Dublin have Cluxton so that becomes less of an issue if they can geenrate a score form their wn kick-outs as they typically do.

On that basis you'd think it'd be a Dublin win BUT and it's a big but- This Mayo team is a different animal than all those who have gone before. Even last year, there is a different feel to them now. They seem cold, hard and steely and you feel that there is a belief in them this year that they have had enough, that this is the year and they're going to to do it themselves. Also, their management have been hugely impressive thus far especially with the speed of decision making in play. I'd rank them above Gavin personally thus far.

While my head is leaning towards the Dubs and any logic assessment would say the Dubs I just cannot shake this feeling about Mayo and that they're either going to win the All Ireland this year or will die trying to do so. On that basis I'm having my tenner on Mayo.

I want a Dublin v Kerry final however so hope i'm wrong. Cannot wait tomorrow it's going to be a war.

Said what I was trying to say above and more, excellent post.

WearstheFoxhat · 29-08-2015 9:40pm

Dublin will go into shock tomorrow, first top team they have to play. I predict a riot.

MfMan · 29-08-2015 9:50pm

Would love to see Mayo win it and go all the way, but I just have a hunch that their time is past, that it had to be last year or never. Don't think their backs, e.g. Boyle in particular, are playing as well this year, and Cilian O'Connor has been searching for form all season. Hope I'm wrong.

LeoB · 29-08-2015 10:04pm

Hard to call.

Heart says Dublin but.........

I think this is the best Mayo team Iv ever seen. They have very good ball players all over the field. Their defence is excellent. In Higgins and Keegan they have 2 lads well capable of holding Flynn and Connolly and if they can it could spell trouble for Dublin.

Prouddub is right though. No such thing as impartial opinion when it comes to Dublin. I want Dublin to win but My heart would not begrudge Mayo their day in the sun and I have fancied them from a long way out. So Mayo for me

fermanagh_man · 29-08-2015 10:05pm

Draw game

Dublin to win the replay

corny · 29-08-2015 11:02pm

Its worth noting that for all the talk that Mayo are excellent at the back they conceded 2-18 in March against Dublin. Cunniffe, Boyle, Keegan, Vaughan and Higgins started. In 2013, 5 of the 6 Dublin forwards scored from play. The Dublin backs? They conceded 10 points in March and in 2013 only Andy Moran scored from play. I think my point is everyone, and i mean everyone, was drawn in by Dublin last year prior to the semi, This year i think people are placing far too much importance on Mayo's results against a second tier Galway and a Donegal side who've lost the attacking vigour they had when Jim Mc was in charge. Form between the 2 teams (Dublin V Mayo) is far more relevant for me. Although the new Mayo management adds a different dynamic i can't see it being such a different game that Dublin lose the edge on the scoreboard. Dublin by 4.

keeponhurling · 30-08-2015 12:03am

WearstheFoxhat wrote: »

Dublin will go into shock tomorrow, first top team they have to play. I predict a riot.

Very very even match on paper.
This would be why I'd 51% expect mayo to win, it's the first real test for Dublin.

Dublin have been cruising all year.
At least Mayo knew they needed to bring their A-game v Donegal or they could be out of the championship.

Dublin didn't react well to pressure in last year's semi final.

Either way, I cannot wait for this game

Nidgeweasel · 30-08-2015 12:12am

keeponhurling wrote: »

Dublin didn't react well to pressure in last year's semi final.

Wouldn't say it's anything to do with pressure at all. They won an All Ireland in 2011 in highly pressurised circumstances, they won another All Ireland in 2013 seeing out a close game v Kerry and then seeing off a decent Mayo side despite not being fully at the races themselves on the day.

They came a cropper last year because they didn't have the intelligence on the field or on the line to work it out and started panicking. They were also up against an excellently drilled Donegal side who were ready for everything that was thrown at them. I wouldn't say it was anything to do 'pressure' just a total systems failure and beaten by a better team on the day.

The 'pressure' talk could possibly come into the reckoning tomorrow or after tomorrow because as I've said there is a question mark over the team now having lost last year in the manner they did.

davegrohl48 · 30-08-2015 6:28am

I'll go for Mayo by two in a match where AOS is more about creating space and laying off ball.
- Cillian to goal
- Connolly goal
- Freeman to goal coming in from bench
- MOTM Tom Parsons who I see being used to close off gaps around midfield into defence.
- Classic encounter won with late goal by Freeman setup by Cillian or AOS.

Jippo · 30-08-2015 9:39am

I want the Dubs but I think Mayo will win.

Alvin Holler · 30-08-2015 10:12am

I think all logic points to Dublin. For all this talk about how good this Mayo team have been over the past few years they've only managed to beat one provincial champion (when they just about hung on versus dublin in 2012). Other than that their best victories have been against Donegal and Cork who came through the qualifiers and were nowhere near their best.

I could see Mayo getting on top in the middle and maybe this is the year that Aidan O'Shea can perform when it really matters. But I think it more likely that Dublin will score 2+ goals and they'll win by 4.

harpsman · 30-08-2015 11:28am

For starters I wouldnt be getting too excited about Mayos performance agianst Donegal-Donegal were far from their best and we all know that Donegal at 80% are miles behind the top 3-apart from the 1st halves against Tyrone and Armagh they were very easily contained this year. So defence still has question marks against a Dublin attack with many more options.

Attackwise Aidan does look capable of creating havoc and scoring goals(even though Neil McGee was probably carrying an injury for the goal the other day) so Dublin might have to play a sweeper close in to try to stop him and even then if he gets the right ball will probably get at least one goal chance.

I think Mayo like any team that play Dublin will need to outgoal them by at least one becuase youre not going to stop their forwards racking up a big number of points. ie replicate what Donegal did last year-keep a clean sheet and be ruthless with goal chances of your own

Unfortunately I dont see this happening;prediction:

Dublin 1-17
Mayo 1-15

harpsman · 30-08-2015 11:31am

Nidgeweasel wrote: »

Wouldn't say it's anything to do with pressure at all. They won an All Ireland in 2011 in highly pressurised circumstances, they won another All Ireland in 2013 seeing out a close game v Kerry and then seeing off a decent Mayo side despite not being fully at the races themselves on the day.

They came a cropper last year because they didn't have the intelligence on the field or on the line to work it out and started panicking. They were also up against an excellently drilled Donegal side who were ready for everything that was thrown at them. I wouldn't say it was anything to do 'pressure' just a total systems failure and beaten by a better team on the day.

The 'pressure' talk could possibly come into the reckoning tomorrow or after tomorrow because as I've said there is a question mark over the team now having lost last year in the manner they did.

Is that not pressure? as in onfield pressure? No?

Nidgeweasel · 30-08-2015 11:40am

harpsman wrote: »

Is that not pressure? as in onfield pressure? No?

Not for me.

thinkstoomuch1 · 30-08-2015 11:57am

I think mayo have been just as untested as Dublin in Donegal were out on their feet and are tired team and I don't belive mayo good as being made out to be

Donegal made them look better than they are
O shea been brilliant but going to face the best blanket defence in the country and if he's stopped and o connor i can't see where mayo will score from
I would like to see mayo win but gavin is ruthless and top management and Dublin imo will win
I have doubts regards mayo joint management
There's talk there tactic master class but it's premature in today the real test
If they win today they deserve huge credit
Dublin imo as simply better footballers but better coaches also imo

Poor_old_gill · 30-08-2015 12:31pm

Obviously everyone is talking about how close this will be and I do agree to an extent- I believe it will be very close for 60 mins but that Dublin will pull away and win by about 5 in the end.

They have more scoring options on the pitch and on the bench- that will get them over the line

DanielODonnell · 30-08-2015 12:31pm

Dublin will win by about 5 points, they are a better team though I would like to see Mayo win as I have some north Mayo blood in me so I do plus Ulstermen don't get on with Dubs.

Red Kev · 30-08-2015 1:02pm

Mayo by 2 .

Mayo 2-14, Dublin 2-12

It'll be very tight, very hard to call. I've a tenner on for a draw @ 8/1

OldMrBrennan83 · 30-08-2015 1:57pm

This post has been deleted.

donegaLroad · 30-08-2015 2:14pm

Mayo will win by a point just before the final whistle.

m1ck007 · 30-08-2015 2:15pm

Mayo by 4 points

posturingpat · 30-08-2015 2:21pm

Dublin win,no doubt whatsoever for me,i think it could be double scores or close to it. Dublin are a juggernaut that won't be stopped this year,the forward line is almost cruel it's that good.