September 2015 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

Same bonus question as last year and same lame pun in first sentence ...

Perhaps you'll FALL for the September forecast contest, with the usual guide:

1. IMT for the five stations, 1981-2010 average was 13.2

2. MAX for the met.ie stations.

3. MIN for the met.ie stations.

4. PRC (rainfall) as % of normal for the eleven stations used.

5. SUN as % of normal for the six stations used.

6. Predict the weather for the All-Ireland Senior Football Championship game scheduled for Sunday 20 September at Croke Park, Dublin, using Phoenix Park weather data:

(a) -- Max temperature on 20th at Phoenix Park (C)
(b) -- Rainfall on 20th at Phoenix Park in mm.

In both cases, use one decimal in your forecasts as that's how the data appear.

Your forecasts can be placed in this thread using the template below:

Your name ____ IMT __ MAX __ MIN __ PRC __ SUN ____ 20th Max, rain

The forecast deadline without penalty is 0300h Wed 2nd, after which it's a five point deduction per half day interval.

Good luck ... I am still studying the entrails etc and will post a forecast later.

Bsal

Bsal ____ 13.1 __ 21.4 __ -0.5 __ 95 __ 106 ____ 13.2, 0.5mm

200motels

200motels ____ 13.0 __ 20.3__ -0.8 __ 90 __ 109 ____ 16.9, 0.0mm

pauldry

pauldry ____ 12.8 __ 21.8__ -0.7 __ 80 __ 112____ 16.1, 9.4mm

dasa29

Dasa29 ____ 12.0 __ 22.5 __ -1.0 __ 105 __ 90 ____ 17.5, 2.0mm

dacogawa

Dacogawa ____ 13.4 __ 22.0 __ -0.7 __ 105 __ 120 ____ 12.4, 22.0mm

rameire

Rameire ____ 13.0 __ 20.6__ 0.2 __ 78 __ 93 ____ 15.0 , Trace.

Harps

Harps ____ 13.1 __ 22.9 __ -1.2 __ 75 __ 120 ____ 16.8, 1.0mm

omicron

omicron ____ 13.0 __ 21.0 __ 1.5 __ 95 __ 105 ____ 17.5, 0.0

DOCARCH

DOCARCH ____ 12.8 __ 20.8 __ -0.8 __ 92 __ 105 ____ 16.7,0.0

John mac

john mac ____ 13 __ 22.3 __ -1.5 __ 98 __110 ____ 15.2, 2.2

Joe Public

Joe Public ____ 12.9 __ 22.9 __ -2.9 __ 85 __ 129 ____ 16.9, 0.0mm

sunflower3

Sunflower3 ____ 12.6 __ 21.6 __ -1.1 __ 90 __ 118 ____ 17.5,0.0

jd

JD ____ 13.3 __ 23.6 __ -1.8 __ 95 __ 110 ____ 17.2,0.0

mickger844posts

mickger844posts ____ 13.1 __ 20.1 __ -1.1 __ 82 __ 112 ____ 16.1, 0.0mm

lostinashford

lostinashford ____ 12.1 __ 22.3 __ -0.8 __ 94 __ 109 ____ 17.2, 1.0mm

Tae laidir

Tae laidir ____ 12.5 __ 18.9 __ -2.5 __ 70 __ 117 ____ 14.7, 1.0

Rikand

Rikand ____ 13.0 __ 21.5 __ -1.5 __ 90 __ 120 ____ 17.5c, 0.0mm

waterways

waterways __13.1__ 22 __ -2 __ 83 __ 120 ____ 13, 4

Schadenfreudia

Schadenfreudia
12.9__ 22.1__ 2.8_100%_ 100%

20th Max; 16.7C Rain - 0.0mm

mrskinner

Mrskinner____13.5____23.4____0.4____90____120____16.9____5mm

Lumi

Lumi ____ 13.1 __ 20.9 __ -2.8 __ 88 __ 110 ____ 15.9, 2.4

M.T. Cranium

MTC ______ 11.9 __ 21.1 __ --3.5 ___ 055 __ 090 __ 14.2 __ 1.0 mm

Good luck everyone. Table of forecasts may be posted on Wednesday perhaps.

Jpmarn

Jpmarn____ 13.8__ 24.8 __ 0.4 ___ 075 __ 125 __ 18.5__ 0.2mm

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for September 2015


FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ 20th max, rain

Jpmarn____________ 13.8 _ 24.8 __ 0.4 _ 075 _ 125 ____ 18.5 __ 0.2
MrSkinner__________ 13.5 _ 23.4 __ 0.4_ 090 _ 120 ____ 16.9 __ 5.0
Dacogawa _________ 13.4 _ 22.0 _ -0.7 _ 105 _ 120 ____ 12.4 __22.0
JD _______________ 13.3 _ 23.6 _ -1.8 _ 095 _ 110 ____ 17.2 __ 0.0
Harps _____________13.1 _ 22.9 _ -1.2 _ 075 _ 120 ____ 16.8 __ 1.0
waterways _________ 13.1 _ 22.0 _ -2.0 _ 083 _ 120 ____ 13.0 __ 4.0
Bsal ______________ 13.1 _ 21.4 _ -0.5 _ 095 _ 106 ____ 13.2 __ 0.5
Lumi ______________13.1 _ 20.9 _ -2.8 _ 088 _ 110 ____ 15.9 __ 2.4
mickger844posts ____ 13.1 _ 20.1 _ -1.1 _ 082 _ 112 ____ 16.1 __ 0.0
john mac __________ 13.0 _ 22.3 _ -1.5 _ 098 _ 110 ____ 15.2 __ 2.2
Rikand ____________ 13.0 _ 21.5 _ -1.5 _ 090 _ 120 ____ 17.5 __ 0.0
omicron ___________ 13.0 _ 21.0 __ 1.5 _ 095 _ 105 ____ 17.5 __ 0.0

Con Sensus ________ 13.0 _ 22.0 _ -1.0 _ 090 _ 110 ____ 16.8 __ 0.5

Rameire ___________13.0 _ 20.6 __ 0.2 _ 078 _ 093 ____ 15.0 __ Tr
200motels _________ 13.0 _ 20.3 _ -0.8 _ 090 _ 109 ____ 16.9 __ 0.0
Joe Public __________12.9 _ 22.9 _ -2.9 _ 085 _ 129 ____ 16.9 __ 0.0
Schadenfreudia _____ 12.9 _ 22.1 __ 2.8 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 16.7 __ 0.0
pauldry ___________ 12.8 _ 21.8 _ -0.7 _ 080 _ 112 ____ 16.1 __ 9.4
DOCARCH _________ 12.8 _ 20.8 _ -0.8 _ 092 _ 105 ____ 16.7 __ 0.0
Sunflower3 ________ 12.6 _ 21.6 _ -1.1 _ 090 _ 118 ____ 17.5 __ 0.0
Tae laidir __________ 12.5 _ 18.9 _ -2.5 _ 070 _ 117 ____ 14.7 __ 1.0
lostinashford _______ 12.1 _ 22.3 _ -0.8 _ 094 _ 109 ____ 17.2 __ 1.0
dasa29 ____________12.0 _ 22.5 _ -1.0 _ 105 _ 090 ____ 17.5 __ 2.0
M.T. Cranium _______11.9 _ 21.1 _ -3.5 _ 055 _ 090 ____ 14.2 __ 1.0

____________________________________________

Con Sensus is 12th ranked value (median) and if KS straggles in that will change to mean of 12th and 13th ranked, but that cannot change the IMT consensus and I think most of the others would stay very similar. Trace amount of rain will be scored as 0.0 but gets bragging rights if it verifies.

Our group estimate seems to be for a rather normal month once the obviously cool first week comes and goes, otherwise the IMT values would be lower because they will be starting from about 1.5 below normal at least (the group average is only 0.3 below normal). There is a trend towards dry and sunny as opposed to wet and cloudy but some are saying dry and cloudy. As for the bonus, there's quite a spread in forecasts there.

kindredspirit

Ooops! Forgot all about it. Too late really to enter. Good luck everyone.

M.T. Cranium

After seven days ...

IMT only 11.7 C which was 2.5 below the normal average for the five stations used.
(note, would be 12.0 C for the eleven precip stations that include the five temperature sites, and that would be 2.2 below the normal average for all of them, so in both cases that normal is 14.2).

PRC was a mere 8% of normal with some of the more northerly sites breaking 10% and the south almost bone dry.

SUN managed a rather weak 79% average.

I expect we might have some candidates for the MAX after today, and so far the lowest MIN that I noticed was 4.0 but if clear skies remain overnight maybe an eastern cold spot will beat that for now. Last week of September usually provides that statistic anyway.

My forecast for these stats after 14 days would be

13.0 _ 21.0 _ 2.0 _ 100 _ 075

so will check that out later.

Note: will discuss with participants in December, but I am thinking of making the temperature (IMT) base similar to the precip base, at least the current eleven stations and possibly as many as 14, with Athenry, Gurteen and either Finner or Knock added to provide better coverage. Some test cases that I have run show little variation over long periods, if more stations are used, so long as we don't include too many coastal stations, if I just went with all stations available it would develop a coastal bias and within that a bit of a skew to the south coast, which would be unrepresentative.

Also it will be possible to expand the sunshine data base from six to eight, the two added ones being Knock and Malin Head which you may suppose are cloudier locations but as we're dealing with percentages of normal that really isn't a big concern.

The MAX and MIN already encompass the entire met.ie roster of reporting sites on the daily reports and in the Monthly Summary except for those that you don't hear about until the climate stations are added into the Monthly Bulletin months after the fact. Back in the hot month of July 2013 I believe there was eventually a report of a MAX about a degree higher than what we had for the contest, many other times I suspect there might be lower MINs at some of these sites, but as contestants know what they are dealing with, they probably factor that into predictions.

M.T. Cranium

Max on 8th was 20.2 at several locations. Holding at 4.0 for min.

pauldry

Mullingar 20.3c will dunsany or pheonix beat that.

No more high temperatures till all ireland

pauldry

Low of the month so far tonight.

Could get down to 2c

7.3c in sligo town and were by the sea

M.T. Cranium

Update for the second week (8th to 14th) ... almost missed my chance to review the Ag Report but it is still on the right page for me.

IMT has risen to 12.6 for the five stations after the week managed a fairly normal value of 13.3 C. For the full eleven stations, the average is now 12.7 (the week 13.4).

The very wet conditions (in the west mainly) boosted the month to 114% and the second week averaged 220%. Worth noting that Casement is still only running at 40% of normal (and 20% of the full monthly amount).

Sunshine continues to be rather sparse, the week at 85% brings a slight rise to 82% for the month.

MAX 20.3 so far, and MIN will be reset overnight, two stations were at 3 C at 0400h and as Pauldry noted we could see a lower value by morning.

pauldry

Claremorris was 1.5c mt but mt dillon was 1c on 0800 report so a reading of 0.something not out of the question

M.T. Cranium

There will be colder mornings if the GFS output verifies, will be surprised if we don't get to at least -2 eventually.

pauldry

Isnt it shockin cold this year


Of course in Winter well be saying isnt it horrid mild this winter

pauldry

0.8c mt dillon

M.T. Cranium

The bonus question results _

MAX 17.4

rain 5.0 mm

Four predictions of temperature were just 0.1 too high, those from Rikand, omicron, sunflower3 and dasa29. JD and lostinashford were 0.2 low at 17.2 -- these six will share five points.

MrSkinner hit the rainfall dead on, the next four closest were waterways (4.0), then Lumi (2.4), johnmac (2.2) and dasa29 (2.0).

Only two forecasts gave higher rainfall totals than what was reported. I will be scoring them somewhat generously using the statistical non-symmetric principle as these higher forecasts show more "skill" than the closer zero forecasts which will all be getting one point.

While MrSkinner had the best absolute combination of temperature and rainfall, in terms of ranked forecasts Dasa29 came closest. These two will get a (super) bonus point for their efforts.

It's worth noting that the rain arrived around 3 p.m. so that the forecasts of a dry day verified for the first 60% of the day.

Check back tomorrow when I will have updates for the other portions of the contest based on week three ending today.

M.T. Cranium

The results are in (almost) for the third week. Mullingar has not yet reported a rainfall for yesterday and so I have estimated that in my calculations. They were up to date on temperatures as were all of the locations.

The IMT has settled in at 12.3 C for the five stations, and 12.6 C for the eleven (we are still going by the five until end of 2015 then we'll decide whether or not to expand the grid). Those values are fairly close to the weekly values (12.2 and 12.4).

Rainfall at the eleven sites (estimating Mullingar to be 120%) was 78% for the week which now leaves the month at 99% of normal. If I can edit this when Mullingar updates, then this may change slightly (up or down 1% for every 11% that my estimate for Mullingar proves incorrect -- I estimated a fairly generous 10 mm there yesterday).

Sunshine at the six stations used averaged only 69% which drops the month back to 78% of normal.

I'm not aware of any new Max or Min (20.3, 0.8).

My estimates for end of the month would be 12.2, 21.0, -2.0, 100, 80. But we'll have an update after four weeks that should be just about the final values.

Joe Public

Can we expect the IMT and sunshine to rise to the end of the month going on the current forecast?

M.T. Cranium

Maybe slightly. The missing rainfall stat for Mullingar came on line at 6.9 mm which is not much different from the estimate hence no changes to the tracking.

The IMT at this point sits at 12.2 ... if the last six days averaged 14 (including today) then the finishing value would be 12.6 deg. Sunshine could probably increase by a maximum of 10-15 per cent from current values near 85%. The upper limit for that might be a recovery to normal values.

M.T. Cranium

After four weeks ...

IMT for the contest five stations is now 12.2 C after a week at 11.9 C. For the eleven precip stations that include those five, the mean is now 12.5 C after a week of 12.1 C. These values could drift up 0.1 as the don't need much when rounding is taken into account. The days (29-30) are warm enough but some of the stations have had coldish nights.

MAX and MIN have not been changed yet, although I have not seen MIN values for today yet. For yesterday, 1.1 C at Mountdillon was not quite as cold as the 0.8 earlier.

PRC has fallen to 76% as this past week managed a mere 11% of normal. Pretty certain that 29th-30th will log zero, so that will fall a bit further to 71%. Rather strange isn't it, after such heavy rainfalls earlier in the west, but that's precip forecasting for you.

SUN has managed to reach 99% after this past week logged in at 140%. If the last two days follow suit (we already know that the 29th was fairly sunny overall) then the final value will be about 102%.

I may be able to post provisional scoring with the confirmed scoring available by Friday 2nd.

rameire

in case anybody else forgot like me.
here is octobers link
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057500339

M.T. Cranium

Here's the final damages for September ...

IMT was 12.2 C (for the eleven stations used for precip, 12.5 C). The contest value will be 12.2.

MAX was 20.3 and MIN was 0.8 as already reported.

PRC turned out to be 74% of normal. In the report for week four above, I made a couple of slight errors on PRC and SUN which mean that the report should have said we were at 77% not 76, and the dry end brought us down to 74 rather than my estimate. No big deal there but that's why the numbers are slightly different.

SUN finished at 95% of normal. Stations averaged between 85 and 105 per cent of normal with the east being sunnier. Here again, I think I took the wrong baseline from week three into week four, that should have read "SUN has moved up to 93% etc" and the sunnier last two days finished things off at 95%.

BONUS was already reported above to be 17.4 C and 5.0 mm.

Scores will follow within the hour, I hope.

M.T. Cranium

Scoring for September 2015

FORECASTER _______ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN ___ BONUS _____ TOTALS

Rameire ___________17 _ 18*_ 16*_ 14 _ 10 ____ 02 _ 02 _______ 79
200motels _________ 17 _ 20 _ 12*_ 10 _ 07 ____ 04 _ 01 _______ 71
mickger844posts ____16 _ 19*_ 11*_ 12 _ 07 ____ 03 _ 01 _______ 69
omicron ___________17 _ 14*_ 15*_ 08 _ 08 ____ 05 _ 01 _______ 68
DOCARCH _________ 19 _ 16*_ 12*_ 09 _ 08 ____ 03 _ 01 _______ 68
pauldry ___________ 19 _ 08*_ 13*_ 13 _ 07 ____ 03 _ 04 _______ 67
lostinashford _______ 24 _ 06*_ 12*_ 08 _ 07 ____ 05 _ 04 _______ 66
dasa29 ____________23 _ 05*_ 11*_ 05 _ 09 ____ 05 _ 05 +1 ____ 64
Sunflower3 ________ 21 _ 10*_ 11*_ 10 _ 05 ____ 05 _ 01 _______ 63
Tae laidir __________ 22 _ 10*_ 04*_ 14 _ 06 ____ 01 _ 04 _______ 61
Bsal ______________ 16 _ 11*_ 14*_ 08 _ 08 ____ 01 _ 03 _______ 61

Con Sensus ________ 17 _ 08*_ 11*_ 10 _ 07 ____ 04 _ 03 _______ 60

M.T. Cranium _______22 _ 13*_ 01*_ 09 _ 09 ____ 01 _ 04 _______ 59
Lumi ______________16 _ 15*_ 03*_ 10 _ 07 ____ 02 _ 05 _______ 58
MrSkinner__________12 _ 02*_ 18*_ 10 _ 05 ____ 04 _ 05 +1 _____57
Harps _____________16 _ 04*_ 09*_ 15 _ 05 ____ 04 _ 04 _______ 57
Rikand ____________ 17 _ 11*_ 08*_ 10 _ 05 ____ 05 _ 01 _______ 57
waterways _________ 16 _ 08*_ 06*_ 12 _ 05 ____ 00 _ 05 _______ 52
Jpmarn____________ 09 _ 01*_ 18*_ 15 _ 04 ____ 03 _ 02 _______ 52
Schadenfreudia _____ 18 _ 06*_ 09*_ 06 _ 09 ____ 03 _ 01 _______ 52
john mac __________ 17 _ 06*_ 08*_ 07 _ 07 ____ 02 _ 05 _______ 52
Dacogawa _________ 13 _ 08*_ 13*_ 05 _ 05 ____ 00 _ 02 _______ 46
JD _______________ 14 _ 02*_ 07*_ 08 _ 07 ____ 05 _ 01 _______ 44
Joe Public __________18 _ 04*_ 02*_ 11 _ 03 ____ 04 _ 01 _______ 43
_____________________________________________________________

* minimum progression rule applied to most scores in MAX and MIN

Congrats to Rameire, 200motels and mickger844posts for their high scores this month. Overall, a rather even month for scoring as many of us kept pace with Con Sensus. We will see how this leaves the annual race in a while, watch for that.

===================================================

M.T. Cranium

Updated annual 2015 scoring January to September


FORECASTER _________ Jan_ Feb_Mar_ Apr_ May_Jun_ Jul_ Aug_Sep ____ 2015 Total (rank) __ best 8/9 (rank)

M.T. Cranium __________68 _ 17 _ 71 _ 86 _ 62 _ 70 _ 46 _ 61 _ 59 __ 540 (7) ______ 523 (1)
Lumi _________________68 _ 72 _ 59 _ 66 _ 58 _ 61 _ 53 _ 78 _ 58 __ 573 (1) ______ 520 (2)
Jpmarn _______________64 _ 57 _ 71 _ 78 _ 82 _ 67 _ 44 _ 48 _ 52 __ 563 (2) ______ 519 (3)

Con Sensus ___________ 70 _ 71 _ 63 _ 65 _ 58 _ 62 _ 55 _ 69 _ 60 __ 573 (1) ______ 518 (4)

MrSkinner _____________--- _ 71 _ 85 _ 54 _ 47 _ 59 _ 61 _ 78 _ 57 __ 512 (14) _____ 512 (4)
dasa29 _______________ 47 _ 69 _ 67 _ 45 _ 57 _ 57 _ 70 _ 76 _ 64 __ 552 (3) ______ 505 (5)
Rikand _______________ 84 _ 59 _ 48 _ 73 _ 54 _ 66 _ 51 _ 57 _ 57 __ 549 (4) ______ 501 (6t)
sunflower3 ____________ 69 _ 61 _ 59 _ 44 _ 66 _ 57 _ 54 _ 72 _ 63 __ 545 (5) ______ 501 (6t)
Bsal _________________ 77 _ 55 _ 68 _ 50 _ 57 _ 71 _ 48 _ 55 _ 61 __ 542 (6) ______ 494 (8)
mickger844posts _______ 50 _ 90 _ 53 _ 61 _ 45 _ 57 _ 28 _ 67 _ 69 __ 520 (13) _____ 492 (9)
Tae laidir _____________ 33 _ 60 _ 46 _ 68 _ 68 _ 56 _ 74 _ 60 _ 61 __ 526 (10) _____ 493 (10)
rameire ______________ 55 _ 40 _ 46 _ 58 _ 61 _ 53 _ 56 _ 79 _ 79 __ 527 (9) ______ 487 (11)
Pauldry _______________51 _ 48 _ 70 _ 51 _ 67 _ 61 _ 58 _ 60 _ 67 __ 533 (8) ______ 485 (12t)
DOCARCH _____________75 _ 79 _ 40 _ 64 _ 36 _ 65 _ 42 _ 52 _ 68 __ 521 (12) _____ 485 (12t)
lostinashford __________ 56 _ --- _ 53 _ 64 _ 74 _ 62 _ 55 _ 52 _ 66 __ 482 (19) _____ 482 (14)
Harps ________________ 69 _ 57 _ 34 _ 70 _ 45 _ 70 _ 45 _ 61 _ 57 __ 508 (15) _____ 474 (15)
John mac _____________ 73 _ 55 _ 58 _ 60 _ 50 _ 50 _ 69 _ 55 _ 52 __ 522 (11) _____ 472 (16)
jd ___________________ 72 _ 61 _ 68 _ 62 _ 31 _ 50 _ 53 _ 59 _ 44 __ 500 (16t) ____ 469 (17)
Schadenfreudia _________61 _ 67 _ 53 _ 60 _ 58 _ 36 _ 38 _ 75 _ 52 __ 500 (16t) ____ 464 (18)
dacogawa _____________ 48 _ 62 _ 63 _ 77 _ 58 _ --- _ 62 _ 43 _ 46 __ 459 (21) ____ 459 (19)
Joe Public _____________ 69 _ 42 _ 64 _ 72 _ 39 _ 54 _ 69 _ 44 _ 43 __ 496 (18) ____ 457 (20)
kindredspirit ___________ 63 _ 57 _ 52 _ 59 _ 47 _ 60 _ 61 _ 56 _ --- __ 455 (22) ____ 455 (21)
omicron _______________41 _ 77 _ 40 _ 67 _ 49 _ 36 _ 42 _ 55 _ 68 __ 475 (20) ____ 439 (22)
waterways _____________--- _ 70 _ 58 _ 58 _ 40 _ 53 _ 32 _ 63 _ 52 __ 426 (23) ____ 426 (23)
200motels _____________30 _ --- _ 59 _ 65 _ 58 _ 40 _ 35 _ 49 _ 71 __ 407 (24) ____ 407 (24)

see August table for entrants with fewer scores.
__________________________________________________________

The annual race is slowly getting tighter, as the pack gains a bit on the three leaders.

High monthly scores are shown in bold type above.

Next month I will adjust the main scoring column to best 8 of 10 as we close in on the final portion of the year.