August 2015 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

Will there be any improvement in August or more of the same?

1. IMT for the five stations, 1981-2010 average was 15.3

2. MAX for the met.ie stations.

3. MIN for the met.ie stations.

4. PRC (rainfall) as % of normal for the eleven stations used.

5. SUN as % of normal for the six stations used.

6. BONUS -- A short-range actual forecast skill required question this month. I have widened the forecast periods in case the system speeds up or slows down after posting this four days (or so) in advance.

With an unusually strong low shown on all guidance for 2nd-3rd (and possibly effects lingering into 4th), predict the maximum total rainfall for 2nd, 3rd and 4th at any of the regular reporting stations in mm as well as the strongest wind gust over those three days, in knots. No requirement to name locations, just the two numbers. Any rain or wind that is reported on 1st won't count towards the bonus, so don't include it if you wait until late on first even if it appears to be part of the storm. Met-ie daily data appear to run from 00z to 00z which is 0100h to 0100h civil time so factor in that anything falling in the first hour of Sunday 2nd will get reported with the 1st not the 2nd.

Template you can use with my forecasts, alter the numbers :

Forecaster _____________________ IMT__MAX__MIN__PRC__SUN__bonus
Your Name (MTC) _______________ 14.7 _ 23.5 _ 3.0 _ 140 _ 080 __ 60.5 mm _ 51 kts

Enter without penalty by 0300h Sunday 2nd, or 5 points before 1500h Sunday 2nd, 10 points before 0300h Monday 3rd, etc. Those late penalties will take care of any advantages gained by making a late forecast for the bonus but in any case the bonus will also be reduced by 2 points per late interval, so there is plenty of incentive to enter on time. I expect many will wait until Saturday afternoon or evening to have a go at this, and I may edit my forecast before the deadline.

Enjoy, and check back around 5th for both the report on the bonus and the updated July and annual scores which won't be available right away due to the weekend and my plans (3rd is a holiday here and I may not be around much until Tuesday 4th).

What if the system fizzles out or speeds up so much that the bonus is pointless, you may ask? Well just predict the outcome anyway, there is bound to be some rain and some wind gusts in the period. Remember, it's all within the 72h from 0100h 2nd to 0100h 5th, whatever happens before or after that does not count.

I will add a bit of insurance for early forecasts -- your (total) bonus score cannot be lower than 4 if your time stamp is 31 July or earlier.

pauldry

Forecaster _____________________ IMT__MAX__MIN__PRC__SUN__bonus
13.7 _ 24.3 _ 2.0 _ 150 _ 090 __ 51.5 mm _ 61 knts

John mac

john mac _____________________ 15.0__26.5__3.7__140__105__39mm_50knts

rameire

Rameire _____________________ 14.9__24.7__3.4__120__101__43mm_54knts

sunflower3

Sunflower3___________________ 15.1__24.8__3.8__95__95__45mm_48knts

dasa29

dasa29___________________ 14.3__25.0__3.0__120__100__55mm_52knts

Bsal

Bsal _____________________ 14.9__22.0__2.9__125__88__47mm_50kts

Lumi

Lumi _______________ 14.6 _ 24.5 _ 3.7 _ 123 _ 090 __ 49.5 mm _ 49 kts

Jpmarn

Jpmarn 16.8_ 27.2_ 3.9_ 130 _ 105 __ 38mm _ 58 kts

Joe Public

15.4__25.9__1.9__109__109__56mm_76kts

DOCARCH

DOCARCH _______________ 15.4 _ 25.6 _ 2.1 _ 110 _ 096 __ 26.8 mm _ 47 kts

Schadenfreudia

Forecaster Schadenfreudia

IMT__MAX__MIN__PRC__SUN__bonus
14.5 _ 23.8 _ 3.5 _ 140 _ 090 __ 44.5 _ 45 kts

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit..............................15.1.....26.....3.....120.....85.....48mm.....56knts

Harps

Harps _____________________ 14.9__25.4__2.9__95__120__31mm_62kts

jd

JD_____________________ 15.5__26.4__3.3__115__105__41mm_55kts

mickger844posts

mickger844posts _______________ 14.1 _ 23.1 _ 4.0 _ 133 _ 085 __ 50.5 mm _ 49 kts

lostinashford

Forecaster _____________________ IMT__MAX__MIN__PRC__SUN__bonus
lostinashford _______________ 13.5 _ 22.3 _ 4.0 _ 130 _ 075 __ 67.5 mm _ 46 kts

Rikand

Rikand _______ 15.0 _______ 25.0 _______ 2.0 _______ 120 _______ 90 _______ 50kts __ 50mm

waterways

waterways _______________ 15.1_ 24.3 _ 2.7 _ 141 _ 093 __ 59 mm _ 55 kts

mrskinner

Mrskinner

---

14.9

---

23.9

---

2.9

---

99

---

99

---

39mm---49kts

Tae laidir

Tae Laidir _______________ 15.5 _ 27.1 _ 3.4 _ 113 _ 102 __ 41.5 mm _ 46 kts

dacogawa

Dacogawa ______ 15.1 _ 26.4 _ 2.8 _ 129 _ 090 __ 44.5 mm _ 49 kts

Apologies for the late entry

M.T. Cranium

FORECASTER _____________ IMT__MAX__MIN__PRC__SUN__BONUS _ rain _ gust

Jpmarn ___________________16.8 _ 27.2 _ 3.9 _ 130 _ 105 __ 38.0 mm _ 58 kts (4)
Tae Laidir _________________15.5 _ 27.1 _ 3.4 _ 113 _ 102 __ 41.5 mm _ 46 kts
jd _______________________ 15.5 _ 26.4 _ 3.3 _ 115 _ 105 __ 41.0 mm _ 55kts
Joe Public _________________15.4 _ 25.9 _ 1.9 _ 109 _ 109 __ 56.0 mm _ 76kts (4)
DOCARCH ________________ 15.4 _ 25.6 _ 2.1 _ 110 _ 096 __ 26.8 mm _ 47 kts
200motels ___(-10)_________15.4 _ 23.1 _ 3.9 _ 122 _ 101 __ 32.0 mm _ 45kts (-4)
Dacogawa ____(-5) _________15.1 _ 26.4 _ 2.8 _ 129 _ 090 __ 44.5 mm _ 49 kts (-2)
Kindred Spirit ______________15.1 _ 26.0 _ 3.0 _ 120 _ 085 __ 48.0 mm _ 56kts
Sunflower3________________ 15.1 _ 24.8 _ 3.8 _ 095 _ 095 __ 45.0 mm _ 48 kts (4)
waterways ________________ 15.1 _ 24.3 _ 2.7 _ 141 _ 093 __ 59.0 mm _ 55 kts
john mac _________________ 15.0 _ 26.5 _ 3.7 _ 140 _ 105 __ 39.0 mm _ 50 kts (4)
Rikand ___________________ 15.0 _ 25.0 _ 2.0 _ 120 _ 090 __ 50.0 mm _ 50 kts

Con Sensus _______________ 15.0 _ 24.9 _ 3.0 _ 120 _ 094 __ 46.0 mm _ 50 kts

omicron _____ (-10) ________ 15.0 _ 25.0 _ 3.0 _ 120 _ 100 __ 35.0mm _ 40 kts (-4)
Harps ____________________ 14.9 _ 25.4 _ 2.9 _ 095 _ 120 __ 31.0 mm _ 62kts
Rameire __________________ 14.9 _ 24.7 _ 3.4 _ 120 _ 101 __ 43.0 mm _ 54kts (4)
Mrskinner _________________14.9 _ 23.9 _ 2.9 _ 099 _ 099 __ 39.0 mm _ 49 kts
Bsal _____________________ 14.9 _ 22.0 _ 2.9 _ 125 _ 088 __ 47.0 mm _ 50kts (4)
M.T. Cranium ______________14.7 _ 23.5 _ 3.0 _ 140 _ 080 __ 60.5 mm _ 51 kts (4)
Lumi _____________________14.6 _ 24.5 _ 3.7 _ 123 _ 090 __ 49.5 mm _ 49 kts (4)
Schadenfreudia ____________ 14.5 _ 23.8 _ 3.5 _ 140 _ 090 __ 44.5 mm _ 45 kts
dasa29___________________ 14.3 _ 25.0 _ 3.0 _ 120 _ 100 __ 55.0 mm _ 52kts (4)
mickger844posts ___________14.1 _ 23.1 _ 4.0 _ 133 _ 085 __ 50.5 mm _ 49 kts
pauldry __________________ 13.7 _ 24.3 _ 2.0 _ 150 _ 090 __ 51.5 mm _ 61 kts (4)
lostinashford ______________ 13.5 _ 22.3 _ 4.0 _ 130 _ 075 __ 67.5 mm _ 46 kts
________________________________________________

Note: (4) after bonus indicates early forecast score protection, these entries cannot score lower than 4. ... (-2)or(-4) indicates late penalty on bonus.

24 forecasts, the consensus appears to be a bit on the cool, damp and cloudy side, and there is fairly general agreement that the ongoing storm system will produce 50 mm and 50 kt gusts, give or take 10 on each.

It will be possible to score the bonus fairly soon after the end of Tuesday 4th and July has already been provisionally scored which probably won't change much as many of the scores are from the minimum progression system.

omicron

Completely forgot to enter this although with my disastrous scores this year it won't make much difference!

omicron _____________________ 15.0__25.0__3.0__120__100__35.0mm__40 kts

200motels

200motels 15.4 23.1 3.9 122 101 32mm 45kts

M.T. Cranium

Okay, thanks, will edit these two in and change the Con Sensus values.

Looks like we only missed 3.5 mm of the system rainfall at most (looking at 1st of August amounts).

John mac

belmullet 53knts at 17:00

Lumi

54 knots, Mace head at 1900hrs

M.T. Cranium

Here are the rainfall totals so far (in order) and the bonus round ends with today's numbers so the expected downpours after midnight won't be part of this but by the rules given, anything that falls today would be (and I think that "today" for official data runs 00z to 00z or 0100h to 0100h).


LOCATION _______________ Rain 2nd __ Rain 3rd ___ TOTAL

Valentia __________________22.7 ______ 12.9 _____ 35.6
Belmullet _________________11.3 ______ 14.6 _____ 25.9
Newport _________________ 10.8 ______ 14.4 _____ 25.2
Mace Head _______________ 15.2 ______ 08.3 _____ 23.5
Athenry __________________06.9 ______ 15.9 _____ 22.8
Cork ____________________ 18.9 ______ 01.9 _____ 20.8
Claremorris _______________09.4 ______ 11.3 _____ 20.7
Knock ___________________ 08.1 ______ 12.6 _____ 20.7
Roches Point ______________16.0 ______ 01.3 _____ 17.3
Moore Park _______________15.0 ______ 01.0 _____ 16.0
Sherkin Island ____________ 13.9 ______ 02.0 _____ 15.9
Shannon _________________09.6 ______ 04.4 _____ 14.0
Markree _________________ 04.0 ______ 08.2 _____ 12.2
Finner Camp ______________06.4 ______ 04.1 _____ 10.5
Oak Park _________________08.6 ______ 01.1 _____ 09.7
Mountdillon _______________04.7 ______ 03.6 _____ 08.3
Johnstown Castle __________ 04.5 ______ 02.8 _____ 07.3
Phoenix Park ______________07.0 ______ 00.1 _____ 07.1
Ballyhaise ________________ 03.5 ______ 02.9 _____ 06.4
Mullingar _________________04.0 ______ 02.0 _____ 06.0
DublinA __________________05.8 ______ 00.0 _____ 05.8
Gurteen __________________04.3 ______ 01.5 _____ 05.8
Grange (Dunsany) _________ 03.7 ______ 01.3 _____ 05.0
Casement ________________ 04.4 ______ 00.4 _____ 04.8
Malin Head _______________ 01.6 ______ 01.0 _____ 02.6

Tae laidir

Rain just arrived in Valentia

pauldry

Id expect a 45 mm 54 knot finish

Tae laidir

Only 2.2 mm giving 37.8 total.
Jpmarn closest at 38.0!

M.T. Cranium

Valentia only increased by 2.2 mm on the 4th, to a grand total of 37.8 mm, and no other station caught up to that total, so the closest in each category are:

Rainfall -- (1) Jpmarn, 38.0 ; ... (2) Mrskinner and Johnmac both at 39.0.

Max gust -- (1) Rameire 54 knots; ... (2) jd and waterways both at 55 knots.

I would say jd and then Johnmac had perhaps the closest combined forecasts. It is not taking long today to make up any deficits however.

M.T. Cranium

I overlooked the chance to look up the first seven days of this month on the Ag Report but after checking some other data, these are the numbers so far:

IMT stands at 13.8 C

MAX probably no contenders yet.

MIN 3.8 at Markree.

PRC is about 150%.

SUN is around 85% of normal.

Tae laidir

Oak Park 21.7 yesterday to be beaten today?

Schadenfreudia

Tae laidir wrote: »

Oak Park 21.7 yesterday to be beaten today?

That's the highest so far in August at any official station?

John mac

17:00 from OAK PARK 22

pauldry

John mac wrote: »

17:00 from OAK PARK 22

Oak Park 23c

Might be beaten next week on the usual midweek days that any warm weather comes

Sligo still didnt make our 4th 20c of Summer. Only 19.1c

M.T. Cranium

IMT now 13.8

PRC now. 89%

Week only 28%

Sun now 104%

Max 23.0, min 3.5

Update for 8-15.

pauldry

New max today

Around the 24c in pheonix park

John mac

23.7 I think they said on the weather.

Schadenfreudia

Well Holy God :eek:

As things stand one has got the monthly high to within 0.1C and the monthly low spot on.

One's excitement can hardly be contained !

DOCARCH

Phoenix Park got to 24.2c yesterday according to...http://www.met.ie/latest/yesterday.asp

Schadenfreudia

DOCARCH wrote: »

Phoenix Park got to 24.2c yesterday according to...http://www.met.ie/latest/yesterday.asp

One's excitement has now completely evaporated....:(

M.T. Cranium

Updated values after 15-22 Aug.

IMT now 14.3 (week 15.4)

PRC now 84% (week 72%) -- this will surge higher by mid-week.

SUN at 97% after a week that averaged 84%.

MAX now 24.2, MIN still 3.5

pauldry

One thing I struggle with in boards forecast contest is how the sunshine and rainfall percentages are calculated.

Is it the IMT stations or more and if so which ones

Id say rain is really high at knock this month. Are they counted ? If so rain 150percent if not rain 120percent

M.T. Cranium

No, until recently the Monthly Summary had a table of percentages for eleven stations, this was changed last month and I may take advantage of that starting with the 2016 contests to include more or even all stations, but for this year, the eleven stations that are used include:

Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Carlow (Oak Park), Casement, Claremorris, Cork, Johnstown Castle, Malin Head, Mullingar, Shannon, Valentia

Meanwhile, the Monthly Summary used to list six stations (Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Cork, Shannon, Valentia) in a table of sunshine percentages but they changed that also in June to a table of all eight which includes Knock and Malin Head, but without percentages. I now have to rely on the weekly Agriculture Summary values to get a handle on percentages. The Monthly Summary gives me a bit of information by listing the high and low percentages in their discussion. I made a note at mid-month of the average normal daily values (they ranged from 4.5 hrs west to 5.0 hrs east) and so that's how I will calculate from the tables of total hours, unless I can get access to actual monthly normal values somewhere. I'm sure this will be within a couple of percentage points anyway, the drift from start to finish of the month would be rather small (in normal sunshine hours). And I will have the ongoing weekly values that are actual percentages and not estimates as a further guide.

So in other words, Knock does not influence the monthly percentage of rainfall at this point, or the sunshine, but it may next year.

If I were to use all of the stations as the MS now provides, it would probably skew the results towards the southwest where there seem to be more stations, so what I might do is continue on with the same eleven but add Finner and Athenry to fill in two large gaps in the data. But that won't start until 2016. We can have a group discussion about this in December along with all the other rules in play.

M.T. Cranium

Now for a final update before the end of month stats (using the week of 23-29 Aug).

IMT is only 14.1 after a cool week (13.4).

PRC has surged ahead to 114% of normal as the week averaged 204%.

SUN however managed a raise also with the week at 126%, the month around 104%.

Not sure if we'll find a Monthly Summary on 2nd or 3rd, but I can calculate the IMT and PRC and give a pretty final estimate of SUN just from the daily and monthly values listed on the 1st, so will have some provisional scoring by Tuesday, that may need a very small bump up or down.

rameire

September link people

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057484800

M.T. Cranium

Some final values that I will confirm from the MS (consider the IMT and PRC to be locked in, as I have those from the monthly data) ...

IMT 14.0

MAX 24.2

MIN 3.5

PRC 106% (southeast dry, Johnstown only 65% but northwest wet, Knock ended up 156% but that's not part of this data set, Claremorris was 120%)

SUN will be very close to 100%, the last two days were generally cloudy.

I will soon post some provisional scoring that will be adjusted (perhaps) mid-week. The annual update can wait for that occasion.

Don't forget to enter the September contest in the pinned thread.

M.T. Cranium

Confirmed scoring for August 2015


FORECASTER _____________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__BONUS______ TOTAL

Rameire __________________ 16 _ 15 _ 19 _ 10 _ 10 __ 4 _ 5 _______ 79
Mrskinner _________________ 16 _ 17 _ 14 _ 12 _ 10 __ 5 _ 4 _______ 78
Lumi _____________________ 19 _ 17 _ 18 _ 09 _ 08 __ 3 _ 4 _______ 78
dasa29____________________22 _ 12 _ 15 _ 10 _ 10 __ 2 _ 5 _______ 76
Schadenfreudia _____________20 _ 16 _ 20 _ 04 _ 08 __ 4 _ 3 _______ 75
Sunflower3_________________14 _ 14 _ 17 _ 11 _ 09 __ 4 _ 3 _______ 72

Con Sensus _______________ 15 _ 13 _ 15 _ 10 _ 09 __ 3 _ 4 _______ 69

mickger844posts ___________ 24 _ 09 _ 15 _ 06 _ 07 __ 2 _ 4 _______ 67
waterways ________________ 14 _ 19 _ 12 _ 03 _ 09 __ 1 _ 5 _______ 63
M.T. Cranium ______________ 18 _ 13 _ 15 _ 04 _ 06 __ 1 _ 4 _______ 61
Harps ____________________ 16 _ 08 _ 14 _ 11 _ 06 __ 4 _ 2 _______ 61
pauldry ___________________ 22 _ 19 _ 05 _ 01 _ 08 __ 2 _ 3 _______ 60
Tae Laidir _________________ 10 _ 00 _ 19 _ 13 _ 10 __ 5 _ 3 _______ 60
jd _______________________ 10 _ 00 _ 18 _ 12 _ 09 __ 5 _ 5 _______ 59
Rikand ___________________ 15 _ 12 _ 05 _ 10 _ 08 __ 3 _ 4 _______ 57
Kindred Spirit ______________14 _ 02 _ 15 _ 10 _ 07 __ 3 _ 5 _______ 56
Bsal _____________________ 16 _ 00 _ 14 _ 09 _ 09 __ 3 _ 4 _______ 55
john mac _________________ 15 _ 00 _ 18 _ 04 _ 09 __ 5 _ 4 _______ 55
omicron _____ (-10) ________ 15 _ 12 _ 15 _ 10 _ 10 __ 5 _ 2 (-4) _ 69-14=55
DOCARCH _________________11 _ 06 _ 06 _ 14 _ 09 __ 3 _ 3 _______ 52
lostinashford _______________20 _ 01 _ 15 _ 07 _ 05 __ 1 _ 3 _______ 52
200motels ___(-10)_________ 11 _ 09 _ 16 _ 10 _ 10 __ 4 _ 3 (-4) _ 63-14=49
Jpmarn ___________________ 07 _ 00 _ 16 _ 07 _ 09 __ 5 _ 4 _______ 48
Joe Public _________________ 11 _ 03 _ 04 _ 14 _ 08 __ 2 _ 1 (4) ____ 44
Dacogawa ____(-5) _________ 14 _ 00 _ 13 _ 07 _ 08 __ 4 _ 4 (-2) _ 50-7 =43

________________________________________________

Note: early forecast score protection for bonus (4 min) was only needed for the one case shown, all the other (4) tags are removed now. The bonus score reduction factor for late entries remains and is applied to total score.

So, that's how things stand with the possibility of some very minor adjustments as I check the official stats later in the week. A fairly good month for scoring overall and perhaps a further tightening up of the annual race as some of our leaders were only middle of the pack this month.