Tour de France 2015 Stage 18 Gap-Saint Jean de Mauriene *contains unmasked spoilers*

ZiabR

Stage Summary:

During stage 17, Chris Froome's direct adversaries have given a taste of their intentions to attack him from very far out. The yellow jersey holder expects to be put under pressure again. He'll be on the rollers prior to the start in Gap because that's a brutal one with the 6-km long ascent to col Bayard right from the gun. Simon Geschke must have inspired many riders who aren't used to get the honors at the Tour de France. A breakaway is expected to take shape on the Route Napoleon, two hundred years after the French Emperor chose this way to return to power after his first retirement on the Elba island. It's a road for courageous fighters but the worst is to come after exiting it, going to the col du Glandon through the category 2 col de la Morte and its tricky downhill. The ascent to the Glandon is officially 21.7km long. In reality, from Séchilienne, it's 47 kilometres of climbing. It seems like never ending. The summit is almost with 40km to go. After that, there'll be the scenic and unprecedented Lacets de Montvernier: the last chance of the day for Quintana and co to attack Froome.

Stage Start:

While finishes in Gap have often produced quite a show, the stages that left the town have also struck all generations of cycling fans. After the Gap-Digne period, several Gap-Briançon stages entered the history books, especially in 1953 when Louison Bobet took off up to the Col d'Izoard to go on and conquer the Yellow Jersey. In 1970, Eddy Merckx, after starting from Gap, would drop all his GC rivals on his way to the top of the Mont Ventoux. In recent times, a series of stages between Gap and l'Alpe-d'Huez occurred, including the last episode in 2013 when Christophe Riblon managed a spectacular master-piece.

Stage Finish:

In 2010, the only time the Tour de France finished in Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne was full of emotion, especially for Sandy Casar claiming a victory built on athletic power and on real tactical sens. After breaking away early in the day, he only had Luis Leon Sanchez and Damiano Cunego at his side in the final kilometre when victory would be decided. Against the Spaniard who had beaten him a year back in Saint-Girons, Casar eventually had the upper hand.

Stage Profiles and Details:

With 7 categorised climbs on the cards for this stage, we are surely in for some surprises.

Km 6.5 - Col Bayard (1 264 m)6.3 kilometre-long climb at 7% - category 2
Km 35.5 - Rampe du Motty2.3 kilometre-long climb at 8.3% - category 3
Km 60.5 - Côte de la Mure2.7 kilometre-long climb at 7.5% - category 3
Km 70.5 - Col de Malissol2 kilometre-long climb at 8.7% - category 3
Km 85.0 - Col de la Morte (1 368 m)3.1 kilometre-long climb at 8.4% - category 2
Km 147.0 - Col du Glandon (1 924 m)21.7 kilometre-long climb at 5.1% - category H
Km 176.5 - Lacets de Montvernier (782 m)3.4 kilometre-long climb at 8.2% - category 2

Profile:



Mountains & Hills:



Lead Up to Sprint:



Finish Line:



I have put the same riders into the poll, if you think others may be in with a shout, post them into the comments section

Pudsy33

Martin's best chance for a win do we reckon?

JK.BMC

Pudsy33 wrote: »

Martin's best chance for a win do we reckon?

I agree; first 100km is like Liege-Bastogne-Liege. Will be a horrible start for the peloton but if Dan gets away early and sky/moviestar let the break go, he has as good a chance as anybody

happytramp

Does anyone know how Dan's feeling right now? Thought he might have tried to get in the break today if he'd been in good shape.

Talib Fiasco

Purito to be in the break for KOM points and will get the win or be there abouts you'd fell. Took it handy enough today.

Pudsy33

happytramp wrote: »

Does anyone know how Dan's feeling right now? Thought he might have tried to get in the break today if he'd been in good shape.

He wasn't 100%. That said Talanksy was in the break today and in truth it probably suited him better. Tomorrow might be a Dan day.

Subpopulus

Think Mick Rogers might have a go, given that he won on a similar stage last year. Tinkoff-Saxo might have admitted defeat on the GC front, so he might be let go for a stage win. Lord knows Sagan's not going to provide one for the team...

retalivity

Somebody from cofidis to win as they are having an awful tour (again)

gordongekko

bmc need to do something to salvage their tour

Talib Fiasco

gordongekko wrote: »

bmc need to do something to salvage their tour

To be fair it's been a decent tour for them. Two stage wins, a yellow jersey, one of the stages being a TTT...Not a bad show at all.

dastardly00

gordongekko wrote: »

bmc need to do something to salvage their tour

As Talib Fiasco pointed out, you're a bit harsh on BMC. They've had a good tour!

dastardly00

Subpopulus wrote: »

Think Mick Rogers might have a go, given that he won on a similar stage last year. Tinkoff-Saxo might have admitted defeat on the GC front, so he might be let go for a stage win. Lord knows Sagan's not going to provide one for the team...

That's a good shout actually. If he gets in the breakaway, and they have a good lead, then you would fancy him to go all the way.

dastardly00

happytramp wrote: »

Does anyone know how Dan's feeling right now? Thought he might have tried to get in the break today if he'd been in good shape.

He tweeted a few days ago that he was on the mend, but I haven't heard anything since the rest day.

MPFG

BMC have has 3 stage wins not 2

ZiabR

Never thought it Dan alright, looking at the first 100+ km, it would suit him. Would love to see him take a stage win after his 2nd place finishes. Garmin have had 3 x 2nd place finishes, decent enough showing.

mistermatthew

Is it too much to hope that valverde and quintana go to town on froome? One two attacking him repeatedly. To see if be can chase them down all day? and perhaps Nibali helping out too. he's looking stronger last few days.
if froome holds them all day he deserves it. Hopefully not another day of everyone sitting on for one attack

Inquitus

If Movistar / Astana are serious they could blow this apart on the first climb like Garmin did 2 years back, then we would be in for a great stage, instead I expect a similar stage to yesterday, break wins the day, Valverde, Contador and Quintana put in a few half hearted attacks that have no chance of recovering the minutes they need, hope I am wrong.

ZiabR

Inquitus wrote: »

If Movistar / Astana are serious they could blow this apart on the first climb like Garmin did 2 years back, then we would be in for a great stage, instead I expect a similar stage to yesterday, break wins the day, Valverde, Contador and Quintana put in a few half hearted attacks that have no chance of recovering the minutes they need, hope I am wrong.

Problem is that the teams seem to be happy just sitting on Sky's wheel until the last 10 km and then trying to attack which will never work. They need to hit Sky from the start and start forcing Sky to race. Take Sky out of their comfort zone by removing their control and they will be in trouble or we will have a race at least.

Morrisseeee

Gotta love the pics from that last climb:

Inquitus

Morrisseeee wrote: »

Gotta love the pics from that last climb:

Same climb was in the Dauphiné? I remember a similar short climb with loads of switchbacks, looked amazing, only TV coverage started just as they went over the top.

Leroy42

logik wrote: »

Problem is that the teams seem to be happy just sitting on Sky's wheel until the last 10 km and then trying to attack which will never work. They need to hit Sky from the start and start forcing Sky to race. Take Sky out of their comfort zone by removing their control and they will be in trouble or we will have a race at least.

Or maybe Sky are just too strong. The other teams are trying but Froome appears stronger than the other GC guys, yesterday he was isolated and still was never in any trouble, and the team members seem stronger. Movistar could go all out from the start but Porte and Thomas will just sit in and be fresh to lead Froome up the last climb.

Sometimes there really is little that you can do

dastardly00

Leroy42 wrote: »

Or maybe Sky are just too strong. The other teams are trying but Froome appears stronger than the other GC guys, yesterday he was isolated and still was never in any trouble, and the team members seem stronger. Movistar could go all out from the start but Porte and Thomas will just sit in and be fresh to lead Froome up the last climb.

Sometimes there really is little that you can do

Another scenario would be that Movistar go all out from the start, all the domestiques are dropped early on, and you are left with Froome against Quintana and Valverde (Quin/Val). But Froome will still probably be stronger, and ends up gaining more time on them, with Quin/Val being completely empty for the last couple of stages in the Alps.

As you said, and I agree with it, is that sometimes there is little that you can do.

ZiabR

Leroy42 wrote: »

Or maybe Sky are just too strong. The other teams are trying but Froome appears stronger than the other GC guys, yesterday he was isolated and still was never in any trouble, and the team members seem stronger. Movistar could go all out from the start but Porte and Thomas will just sit in and be fresh to lead Froome up the last climb.

Sometimes there really is little that you can do

I agree with what you are saying but in fairness this is partly due to the teams adopting the same strategy every day which Sky are happy to allow seeing as they are the strongest team. The only way we are going to see Sky under some pressure is if the other teams do something a little different and force Sky's hand early on.

Inquitus

logik wrote: »

I agree with what you are saying but in fairness this is partly due to the teams adopting the same strategy every day which Sky are happy to allow seeing as they are the strongest team. The only way we are going to see Sky under some pressure is if the other teams do something a little different and force Sky's hand early on.

Movistar chasing down Contador for Sky certainly isn't going to put Sky into difficulty, if other teams are happy to race for the minor places then Sky won't be under pressure.

Eamonnator

Stephen Roche is going to be on Sean O"Rourke show RTE Radio 1.

ZiabR

Inquitus wrote: »

Movistar chasing down Contador for Sky certainly isn't going to put Sky into difficulty, if other teams are happy to race for the minor places then Sky won't be under pressure.

Look at yesterdays stage for example, not the best example but it will have to do. In the last 5-6km Froome was on his own, no team mates around him, it was Movistar with 4 riders. The point I am trying to make is that leaving it to the last 5km to attack Froome will never work, he is just to strong this year. They need to start attacking from the get go today to have any chance of causing some trouble in the Sky ranks.

With Contador losing another 2+ minutes yesterday, he will only be riding for pride , possibly a stage win (but I doubt it). Movistar are not racing Tinkoff anymore, they have 2nd and 3rd place sown up. They need to attack Sky today every chance they get.

The only issue may be that the Movistar team are not up to the task.

neris

Eamonnator wrote: »

Stephen Roche is going to be on Sean O"Rourke show RTE Radio 1.

what time or have i missed it?

Leroy42

I guess my point is that maybe we should be all be applauding Froome and Sky rather than denigrating the opposition.

Did Merckx or Hinault only win because the other teams didn't attack them enough? (I'm not comparing them in talent but in terms of how strong they are compared to the opposition).

Bertie's crash yesterday was a case in point. Had that happened to Froome you can bet any Sky rider ahead would have immediately stopped. The whole team is there for one reason, for Froome to win.

dastardly00

Louis Meintjes (MTN-Qhubeka) will be a DNS today. He has been sick for the last few days and he was last to finish yesterday after being dropped from the grupetto.

spock.

neris wrote:

what time or have i missed it?

Just started now.

Eamonnator

Telephone line broke down

MrMischief

Went for Bardet.

Contador will fight to the end and Froome will only lose time if he has a mechanical/crash. SKY have been awesome throughout this tour - tactics have been spot on.

Interesting to read Roches diary this morning. Nico and Porte got in the breakaway to pull Froome up the climbs and prevent attacks. Porte was used but Nico wasn't required - think that sums up how strong and confident Froome is.

neris

spock. wrote: »

Just started now.

Heard it thanks. also heard the other drivel thats paddys PC court report

bazermc

Here is my photo of the awesome Lacets de Montvernier

Inquitus

Dan Martin in the first break of the day, hopefully it sticks!

ben.schlomo

A very strong group so you'd think they've a chance. Ive Jungels e/w at 80s myself.

dastardly00

The full list of 29 escapees is as follows:
Jakob Fuglsang (Astana), Romain Bardet, Jan Bakelants, Christophe Riblon (Ag2r-La Mondiale), Thibaut Pinot (FDJ), Roman Kreuziger, Michael Rogers (Tinkoff-Saxo), Winner Anacona, Jonathan Castroviejo (Movistar), Damiano Caruso, Rohan Dennis (BMC), Thomas De Gendt (Lotto Soudal), Georg Preidler (Giant-Alpecin), Joaquim Rodriguez (Katusha), Michael Matthews, Simon Yates (Orica-GreenEdge), Pierre Rolland, Cyril Gautier, Romain Sicard, Thomas Voeckler (Europcar), Julian Arredondo, Bob Jungels (Trek), Ruben Plaza (Lampre-Merida), Andrew Talansky, Dan Martin (Cannondale-Garmin), Stef Clement (IAM Cycling), Jan Barta (Bora-Argon 18) and Serge Pauwels (MTN-Qhubeka).


2'20" back to the peloton.

Talib Fiasco

No Sky's up the road could make things interesting. Some big names for Saxo and Movistar there

manwithaplan

Christ that's a strong group. Good for the chances of the break succeeding but not so good on the chances of any individual rider. There are a few serial breakaway merchants - Pauwels, Riblon, De Gendt and the like - and a few more choosey riders such as Purito and Dan. Hopefully the fresher legs will help but it's going to be hard to get the timing right against a lot of strong riders.

dhayes73

Eamonnator wrote: »

Stephen Roche is going to be on Sean O"Rourke show RTE Radio 1.

Missed it, was it any good. Will try to listen to podcast.

neris

dhayes73 wrote: »

Missed it, was it any good. Will try to listen to podcast.

not really

D3PO

wonder if Dan will compete with Purito for KOM points

D3PO

just had a proper look at the break list. Holy smokes that's a serious list of climbing talent there.

spock.

Hesjedal in the group aswell according to letour.com

Cannondale-Garmin have a great chance here with Talanksky,Martin and Hesjedal in,the break.

Inquitus

Talib Fiasco wrote: »

No Sky's up the road could make things interesting. Some big names for Saxo and Movistar there

Closest GC Contender was over 16 minutes back at the start of the day, hard to see how it is going to cause Sky too much trouble. Lotto and Trek missed the break and will be looking to protect their GC Ambitions, and are under much more immediate threat than Froome.

gordongekko

Anyone in work feel a bit of sickness coming on?

gordongekko

Inquitus wrote: »

Closest GC Contender was over 16 minutes back at the start of the day, hard to see how it is going to cause Sky too much trouble. Lotto and Trek missed the break and will be looking to protect their GC Ambitions, and are under much more immediate threat than Froome.

Degent is there for lotto but ya hard to believe trek missed the break again.

Inquitus

gordongekko wrote: »

Degent is there for lotto but ya hard to believe trek missed the break again.

True, but they have felt the need to protect Gesink's 6th spot at every opportunity so can't see them changing their spots too much today.

Pudsy33

gordongekko wrote: »

Degent is there for lotto but ya hard to believe trek missed the break again.

Is Arredondo not there for Trek?

neris

surely eurosport could get a live feed of the race from the start even without commentary be better then nothing at all. they can put on multiple tennis matches during the giro why not do it for the tour

Subpopulus

What's Matthews doing among the climbers?