Tour de France 2015 Stage 11 Pau - Cauterets *contains unmasked spoilers*

Darkglasses

A massive day in the mountains tomorrow, with no less than 6 categorised climbs including the Haute-Categorie Col du Tourmalet. I fully expect we will see a considerably larger and stronger breakaway than we saw today, and as a result we should also see some big time polka dot jersey contenders move to the fore. 42 points up for grabs tomorrow, if you have the legs. For the green jersey, the intermediate sprint point is mercifully early in the day, just 56km down the road and well before any climbs of real significance.

Depending on how the day pans out, the stage win could come from anywhere. I expect polka dot contenders like Arredondo, Rodriguez and Pierre Rolland to make breakaway attempts, along with the Yates brothers, Alexis Vuillermoz and Rafa Valls. Should the breakaway fail, Valverde will fancy his chances strongly and enters as favourite. Tony Gallopin has also ridden extremely well so far.

Bit of a mystery this one, could go a lot of different ways.

The main climb of the day examined by GCN:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MlSZ_qckdUA

Oddschecker: Valverde 7/1, Rodriguez 14/1, Hesjedal 14/1, Froome 16/1, Martin 20/1, Gallopin 20/1, Rolland 20/1

Darkglasses

Tony Gallopin

Final thing, no doping speculation. Myself and the other moderators have enough to be doing. We will not hesitate to ban people who break the usual rules for the remainder of the Tour. Take it to twitter or facebook.

Arrow in the Knee

Ryder Hesjedal

There should be at least 4 Sky cyclists in the poll. :rolleyes:

Darkglasses

Tony Gallopin

The more options I add to the poll, the messier it appears on mobile. Can't have it every way.

Arrow in the Knee

Ryder Hesjedal

Darkglasses wrote: »

The more options I add to the poll, the messier it appears on mobile. Can't have it every way.

It's already messier!

Subpopulus

Darkglasses wrote: »

The main climb of the day examined by GCN:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MlSZ_qckdUA

Ha! The lads from Fermoy CC at 4:30...

Beasty

Darkglasses wrote: »

Final thing, no doping speculation. Myself and the other moderators have enough to be doing. We will not hesitate to ban people who break the usual rules for the remainder of the Tour. Take it to twitter or facebook.

Just on this, I have just added the following to the "Seasonal Reminder" sticky

When it comes to doping speculation, please do not try to get your "message" across in what you consider a "subtle" way - you may think you are being smart by saying a performance is "unbelievable" or comparing it to those of previously disgraced riders, but you're not. Such posting is likely to fall foul of the no doping speculation rule, and result in a card or ban (until at least the end of the Tour, although longer bans will be considered for posters with a history of such posting). The message is simple - don't go there and you stay out of trouble

Any questions, PM me or one of the other mods - this is not for discussion in-thread

Thanks

GetWithIt

It seems every day so far has seen "top" riders losing time with the same line being noted - well he can now concentrate on breakaway stages and/or the polka dot jersey.

On that basis, I expect to see a breakaway of approximately 160 riders with Sky, Movistar and Warren Barguil back in the pelaton.

letape

Ryder Hesjedal

Really looking forward to this stage. A most beautiful part of France and my favourite climbs!

Would be good to see Movistar do something with Valverde and Quintana.

lennymc

on the raid pyrenean with the boards crew, it took me about three hours to climb the tourmalet, although we did stop for ice cream!!

nom. Ice cream.

Zzippy

I reckon darkglasses is on something. It's just an incredible modding performance. Simply unbelievable. It's at least 0.4 warnings per thread better than Beasty's performance on stage 12 of the 2013 Tour, and we all know what he was on then... past time they posted their data!


On a serious note, looks tailor made for a heroic but ultimately doomed Tommy V solo breakaway.

retalivity

Nibali, 33/1. He's gotta go big or go home...

Sundy

Any chance of a few of the teams trying to work against Sky? Or is it too deeply ingrained not to help others in case they beat you?

TheBlaaMan

A Yates

Tommy V to join an early break and then drop them all on the Tourmalet before soloing to victory - a-la 2012.

GC battle in last 2km for minor placings on stage ......

ZiabR

Romain Bardet

I am going with Quintana, purely because one of the other GC boys needs to make a move.

MrMischief

Tony Gallopin

Went for Rolland (13'47 behind on GC). Looked strong yesterday and is due a long breakaway. Other GC contenders will be tired after yesterday and let a group go.

D3PO

I cant see anything other than a breakaway win today.

So theres probably a dozen plus likely lads if they make the selection that will fancy their chances. I wouldn't like to call it but obviously my hopes are for Dan to find his legs after yesterday and get another TdF stage onto his palmares.

mirrormatrix

Nairo Quintana

Forgive my ignorance, but has Dan ever won something this lumpy? Doesn't seem like his sort of profile.

velopeloton

2km from today's finish.

D3PO

mirrormatrix wrote: »

Forgive my ignorance, but has Dan ever won something this lumpy? Doesn't seem like his sort of profile.

Queen stage in the 2013 Volta A Catuluna albeit a summit finish. included 2 HC climbs and a 1st cat climb as well as two smaller ones.

Darkglasses

Tony Gallopin

mirrormatrix wrote: »

Forgive my ignorance, but has Dan ever won something this lumpy? Doesn't seem like his sort of profile.

His 2013 stage in the Volta a Catalunya possibly?

D3PO

his stage in the 2013 TdF also featured 4 cat 1 climbs so its not like he couldn't do it on todays parcours if hes feeling good.

MPFG

Dan Martin

Arrow in the Knee wrote: »

There should be at least 4 Sky cyclists in the poll. :rolleyes:

Ahem...5 ....because we all know who the 5th man is
(Blunt )

retalivity

MPFG wrote: »

Ahem...5 ....because we all know who the 5th man is
(Blunt )

Its obviously Luke Rowe, he had the easiest day for sky yesterday, so will prob drop froome and everyone else on the tourmalet before powering to victory

Decuc500

This should be a tougher day for the Sky domestiques to handle. I'm very interested to see how Thomas does.

He really should be dropping out of the top 10 and proper Grand Tour GC riders take his place after today.

Talib Fiasco

Vincenzo Nibali

Rui Costa from the break. Cracked very early yesterday so shouldn't have have exerted a chronic effort and should have a better day today.

xxyyzz

Zzippy wrote: »

On a serious note, looks tailor made for a heroic but ultimately doomed Tommy V solo breakaway.

Please god no,

I don't think I could bear Kirby going on about how he talks to himself.

eagle eye

Chris Froome

Hard to pick a winner today and I'd love to see Dan Martin do it.

I was just thinking to myself this morning that it would be just like Sky to try and win for a second day. They might let Thomas off the leash on this one. He could end up in second place with a big run today as he is just over a minute behind Van Garderen. Having the top two on GC gives even more protection to Froome.

Edit: Apparently I accidentally voted for Rodriguez somehow.

MPFG

Dan Martin

eagle eye wrote: »

Hard to pick a winner today and I'd love to see Dan Martin do it.

I was just thinking to myself this morning that it would be just like Sky to try and win for a second day. They might let Thomas off the leash on this one. He could end up in second place with a big run today as he is just over a minute behind Van Garderen. Having the top two on GC gives even more protection to Froome.

If SKY can blast it today they will
But I think Frooem would 'give' the win to Porte who is still a better climber than Thomas

daramike

Yates, Rolland or Rodriguez from a break for me or else Froome to win Porte 2nd Thomas 3rd, Poels 4th and Roche 5th.

YeahOK

Nairo Quintana

velopeloton wrote: »

2km from today's finish.

Holy moly. Plenty of downhill sections on today's stage

YeahOK

Nairo Quintana

Bertie for the win. Needs to put in a big dig today to regain ground.....

MPFG

Dan Martin

The thing is if you say Yates fro a top 10 place you will be right as the twins take turns at the front of standings

Talib Fiasco

Vincenzo Nibali

daramike wrote: »

Yates, Rolland or Rodriguez from a break for me or else Froome to win Porte 2nd Thomas 3rd, Poels 4th and Roche 5th.

Brailsford 6th?

dastardly00

The stage has started and an initial breakaway containing Lieuwe Westra (Astana), Michal Kwiatkowski (Etixx-QuickStep), Bob Jungels (Trek Factory Racing) and Edvald Boasson Hagen (MTN-Qhuebka) have formed. Lampre-Merida and Cannondale-Garmin are chasing them down though.

Talib Fiasco

Vincenzo Nibali

Dan Martin had some interesting words in his diary, he says there will be an almost coalition against Sky from the peloton. It'd be fantastic if it was true but I doubt it highly.

http://www.irishtimes.com/sport/other-sports/dan-martin-s-tour-de-france-diary-i-simply-couldn-t-push-the-pedals-1.2285070

D3PO

i cant believe 4 guys have managed to get away. So many teams should be stage chasing that Im shocked that we haven't had a group of a dozen plus go up the road.

mirrormatrix

Nairo Quintana

Garmin dropping the ball bigtime - will have to work hard now to reel this in.

daramike

Still break will be pulled back or guys will join it. I expect around 10 good solid climbers to get away.

D3PO

mirrormatrix wrote: »

Garmin dropping the ball bigtime - will have to work hard now to reel this in.

51.5km ave pace for the first half hour, relentless pace. The 4 up front should ease off just enough to let some guys bridge over or this will be a whole world of hurt as they struggle to get a gap !

Arrow in the Knee

Ryder Hesjedal

Sundy wrote: »

Any chance of a few of the teams trying to work against Sky? Or is it too deeply ingrained not to help others in case they beat you?

Someone here should have more knowledge than myself about the inner workings of the peloton but you made an interesting point that should be discussed more here.

IMO I think they are more concerned about getting a high GC position and stage wins than co-operate with a competitor who they have been competing against all season but I could be wrong.

There's plenty of GC Spanish speaking contenders to come up with a plan.

Talib Fiasco

Vincenzo Nibali

Arrow in the Knee wrote: »

Someone here should have more knowledge than myself about the inner workings of the peloton but you made an interesting point that should be discussed more here.

IMO I think they are more concerned about getting a high GC position and stage wins than co-operate with a competitor who they have been competing against all season but I could be wrong.

There's plenty of GC Spanish speaking contenders to come up with a plan.

Fat chance of Valverde helping Contador or anyone for that matter. I'd say it was like pulling teeth for him to finally help Quintana.

D3PO

only 20 seconds to the break now the 4 guys will be gobbled up pretty soon. I cannot understand why they wouldn't ease off enough to let some guys bridge to them rather than burning so much energy trying to hold off the peleton.

Edit Group Compatto now

dastardly00

The four-man breakaway only have a 30 second lead. They will be caught soon enough.

D3PO

dastardly00 wrote: »

The four-man breakaway only have a 30 second lead. They will be caught soon enough.

they have been caught

D3PO

rui costa struggling already. safe to say he wont be climbing the podium today

Crippens1

Thomas Voeckleur

Nibali didn't really try yesterday. I'd love to see him attack down the Tourmalet just to admire the bike handling.

Talib Fiasco

Vincenzo Nibali

D3PO wrote: »

rui costa struggling already. safe to say he wont be climbing the podium today

Ah well there goes my pick for today...he must be cooked altogether so, really thought he'd do something after blowing so early yesterday

REBELSAFC

Dan Martin was second going over the top of the Cat 3....Is this the start of an attempt for the polka dot jersey?

D3PO

looks like all Boras eggs are now all in Sam Bennetts basket. Nerz just abandoned so all on getting Sam through the mountains now to get his 1 or 2 possible sprint chances.

D3PO

Sagan back in green after todays sprint.