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Ascot day 3 *MOD NOTE IN OP*

  • 17-06-2015 5:21pm
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 180 ✭✭


    Nice day 2 has left me nicely in front after free eagles very short headed success!

    3 e/w shouts for me on day 3

    Bocca Baciata 1pt e/w @ 13/2 she beat some good fillies, gets weight and had a good run in the irish 1000 guineas which may turn out to be a very good race

    Pamona, value against the FAV, the Bolger horse will be very hard to beat but this one ran well against a good stoute filly so i expect her to be in the shake up .5pt e/w at 6/1

    Portage, delighted this fella is running , huge field so cant go mad, but i thought he had a nice comeback run at the curragh and is well handicapped , Halford doesnt send them just in hope so 1.5pts e/w at 10/1



    MOD NOTE

    Any aftertiming will see members infracted. I can't be any clearer about this.

    For those who don't know, aftertiming is boasting about wins having made no indication whatsoever that you were backing that horse. It has its own sticky thread, so you can't claim you didn't know it was a no-no.


«13

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 406 ✭✭DylanAFC


    Fast ground unlikely to suit a lot in the Gold Cup so I'll take a chance on Simenon.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,625 ✭✭✭✭Johner


    Backed Curvy in the Ribblesdale at 8/1, looks a different filly this season, improving all the time and I was impressed with her last run. I think she'll stay.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,393 ✭✭✭PM me nudes


    Hard to get past King of the Rooks, has the form and his experience over the others will stand to him.

    Really like the look of Selskar Abbey in the 8.30 Leop. Very unlucky lto when meeting lots of trouble in running. In off the same mark here and I'd say he'll be hard to beat at 7/1.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,370 ✭✭✭rossom


    5.00 Ascot Amazour 25/1 looks a huge price to me having won very cosily on his last two starts and if staying the 1 mile trip I'm confident he can shed his 9lb rise and go extremely close in this.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,022 ✭✭✭madmoose


    Already backed log out island 5/1 antepost
    Curvy 7/1
    Forgotten rules 5/1 antepost praying he just runs, trip to paris ew 16/1 also antepost


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 553 ✭✭✭Andalucia


    reckon no chance they'll risk Forgotten Rules on the ground

    I like Resonant in the Britannia, typical style of MJ that they pop up at big price after a horrendous run previously when fav


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,393 ✭✭✭PM me nudes


    Andalucia wrote: »
    reckon no chance they'll risk Forgotten Rules on the ground

    "If the ground is good or even safe good-to-firm at Ascot, I think he’ll give a very good account of himself.”

    With the watering tonight, I'd say he will.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,224 ✭✭✭jimjamcos


    Have kept it simple for tomorrow again.

    3.40: Pleascach @ Evens - price is fully deserved IMO. Her Irish Guineas win is standout form and while Curvy is respected on her beating of Derby 4th Giovanni Canaletto, AOB's horse was being educated that day and wouldn't be reading that form literally. On her performance two runs back, the extra trip should see Pleascach flourish.

    4.20: Forgotten Rules @ 11/4 - Given the course is being watered tonight I think he'll run. Like Free Eagle, the usually conservative Smullen has been ultra bullish about FR for over a year. Robbie McNamara has been saying likewise and they've long seen him as a future Gold Cup winner. He showed his class when winning over course on Champions Day last year, he proved he handles good ground on reappearance at Navan, has a super temperament and I think he'll outstay them all tomorrow. Also interested in Simenon ew. Won't mind the ground at all, been there and done it, with a master trainer and jockey onboard, he looks rock solid as an ew bet.


    Win Double @ 6.5/1


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,484 ✭✭✭Peintre Celebre


    Bocca Baciata looks the bet of the day tomorrow. 7/1


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,351 ✭✭✭✭Harry Angstrom


    It's strange that Pleascach doesn't have to carry a Group 1 penalty in The Ribblesdale. Makes her task a lot more straightforward.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,522 ✭✭✭✭Fitz*


    Pleasach & Forgotten Rules for me. hope they can do the job. Haven't back FR yet though.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,057 ✭✭✭✭shmeee


    kalinisi wrote: »
    Bocca Baciata 1pt e/w @ 13/2 she beat some good fillies, gets weight and had a good run in the irish 1000 guineas which may turn out to be a very good race

    Portage, delighted this fella is running , huge field so cant go mad, but i thought he had a nice comeback run at the curragh and is well handicapped , Halford doesnt send them just in hope so 1.5pts e/w at 10/1

    Was just coming on to post about these 2 with some word about.

    Bocca should be in the mix and good e/w bet for sure.

    And then Halford's and co think alot of Portage, already well supported this evening, the 12/1 is long gone. Powers 6 places and 10/1 is worth a sensible e/w punt. It is a crazy 30 runner handicap so we need all the luck and places we can get. Sky Bet also 6 places but only 9/1.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,646 ✭✭✭Luap


    Peacock looks a lovely bet, been going about his business nicely this season without being outstanding and I think tomorrow is his time to shine.

    9/2 or 5/2 w/o the favourite.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    Tac De Boistron is the best horse in the Gold Cup, he's improved with age, a little concerned he won't stay fully but the 16/1 available on him is too big be passed over. Forgotten Rules might improve to win but he hasn't got the 2m 4f firm ground Ascot Gold Cup winning form in the bank that his reputation implies he has.


    There are a clatter of very stoutly bred 4yos with decent form in the race that could do it as well, a wide open race.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,351 ✭✭✭✭Harry Angstrom


    tryfix wrote: »
    Tac De Boistron is the best horse in the Gold Cup, he's improved with age, a little concerned he won't stay fully but the 16/1 available on him is too big be passed over. Forgotten Rules might improve to win but he hasn't got the 2m 4f firm ground Ascot Gold Cup winning form in the bank that his reputation implies he has.


    There are a clatter of very stoutly bred 4yos with decent form in the race that could do it as well, a wide open race.

    Surely the ground will be too quick for Tac De Boistron? He was pulled from last year's Gold Cup on the morning of the race because of fast ground. Unless they overdo the watering tonight, there's not going to be much difference between last year's going and this year's going.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    Surely the ground will be too quick for Tac De Boistron? He was pulled from last year's Gold Cup on the morning of the race because of fast ground. Unless they overdo the watering tonight, there's not going to be much difference between last year's going and this year's going.
    I was looking through his form to see if he was a mud lark, but he's run well up to his form against good horses on good going in the past so it doesn't seem to inconvenience him. Obviously at 16/1 he's just a speculative bet, on the ground today at Ascot no horse broke standard time and a few of them were slow by 2.20 Osalia over a mile and Amazing Maria slow by 3.80 over a mile. TDB finished 2nd in the Yorkshire Cup 1m 6f on good ground in a race that was slow by 3.36. He's 8 now so if they don't give it a rattle now with him they'll never have him as well in again. He's hit an OR of 117 and that's the best rating in the field.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,205 ✭✭✭Gringo180


    It's strange that Pleascach doesn't have to carry a Group 1 penalty in The Ribblesdale. Makes her task a lot more straightforward.

    Just wondering the same myself??


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12 Coachonions


    King of Rooks and Pleasach in a nice double to sort out the punters.
    Forgotten Rules will destroy this bad gold cup field.

    Dont forget to back Hootenany tomorrow


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,022 ✭✭✭madmoose


    Sweating on 5/1 antepost bets for f rules here.

    Have 5/1 log out island too antepost


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,474 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    tryfix wrote: »
    I was looking through his form to see if he was a mud lark, but he's run well up to his form against good horses on good going in the past so it doesn't seem to inconvenience him. Obviously at 16/1 he's just a speculative bet, on the ground today at Ascot no horse broke standard time and a few of them were slow by 2.20 Osalia over a mile and Amazing Maria slow by 3.80 over a mile. TDB finished 2nd in the Yorkshire Cup 1m 6f on good ground in a race that was slow by 3.36. He's 8 now so if they don't give it a rattle now with him they'll never have him as well in again. He's hit an OR of 117 and that's the best rating in the field.

    I'm with you on TAC.. If they are happy to run him on it 16/1 is a great price and his single best piece for form was on Good ground in France.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,003 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    Kor backed at 7/4 after buratinos Epsom win cant see past it

    Will be backing forgotten rules but waiting till later

    Prepared to give wedding vow a go at 18s
    Big price esp ignoring that last run

    Backed 2 of Johnstons lto resonant and yorkidding both ran below par
    Ew on both at 25s and 20s


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,522 ✭✭✭✭Fitz*


    PP doing refund of max €50 if your horse finishes 2nd or 3rd in the first race.

    King of Rooks looks a nice bet.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 939 ✭✭✭nuckeythompson


    No luck with singles so far so a lucky 15 mug bet is in order
    Kingfisher 9/1 4.20
    Portage 10/1 5.00
    Curvy 13/2 3.40
    Disegno 7/1 3.05

    Bring it on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,351 ✭✭✭✭Harry Angstrom


    Money back with Boyles if horse comes 2nd or 3rd in Tercentenary.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 128 ✭✭justcallmemoses


    Log out Island for the first?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 55 ✭✭frank93


    mailburner wrote: »
    Kor backed at 7/4 after buratinos Epsom win cant see past it

    Will be backing forgotten rules but waiting till later

    Prepared to give wedding vow a go at 18s
    Big price esp ignoring that last run

    Backed 2 of Johnstons lto resonant and yorkidding both ran below par
    Ew on both at 25s and 20s
    Its far from a one horse race in the Norfolk. Log out island also bet buartino so the form of the hannon paid are familiar . Obviously Hughes has the choice and by picking king of rook he rates him as the better chance of winning. Paddy powers special of even money for the two to be first and second looks the best bet.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,393 ✭✭✭PM me nudes


    frank93 wrote: »
    Its far from a one horse race in the Norfolk. Log out island also bet buartino so the form of the hannon paid are familiar . Obviously Hughes has the choice and by picking king of rook he rates him as the better chance of winning. Paddy powers special of even money for the two to be first and second looks the best bet.

    KOR's form is stronger in my opinion. A listed race trumps the form of a 5f maiden full of first time out two year olds.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,351 ✭✭✭✭Harry Angstrom


    frank93 wrote: »
    Its far from a one horse race in the Norfolk. Log out island also bet buartino so the form of the hannon paid are familiar . Obviously Hughes has the choice and by picking king of rook he rates him as the better chance of winning. Paddy powers special of even money for the two to be first and second looks the best bet.

    Hughes is riding neither one of them because they've been sold to Qatar and Godolphin. On C4 this morning, he was siding with Log Out Island.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,142 ✭✭✭akelly02


    Disnt catch the Morning line but if Hughes said he prefers log out island then im backing King of Rooks


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 55 ✭✭frank93


    KOR's form is stronger in my opinion. A listed race trumps the form of a 5f maiden full of first time out two year olds.

    I've king of rooks in a ante post bet . Log out islands form would be boosted with buartino winning and he should improve form his first run. It seems like it is a two horse race and I would be surprised if anything else filled the first and second slots.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,224 ✭✭✭jimjamcos


    Forgotten Rules runs!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,351 ✭✭✭✭Harry Angstrom


    akelly02 wrote: »
    Disnt catch the Morning line but if Hughes said he prefers log out island then im backing King of Rooks

    I agree with your way of thinking :D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,393 ✭✭✭PM me nudes


    frank93 wrote: »
    I've king of rooks in a ante post bet . Log out islands form would be boosted with buartino winning and he should improve form his first run. It seems like it is a two horse race and I would be surprised if anything else filled the first and second slots.

    Buratino boosted KoR's form too.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,393 ✭✭✭PM me nudes


    jimjamcos wrote: »
    Forgotten Rules runs!

    Can't see them risking him on it unless they think he'll win


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,142 ✭✭✭akelly02


    I agree with your way of thinking :D


    Used to be a big fan of Hughes but he talks fierce muck sometimes....Ivawood pissed me off yest saying he wont be bet.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,393 ✭✭✭PM me nudes


    Forgotten Rules running as of now, pending on what Smullen says after the second race


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 349 ✭✭shy-tall-knight


    Hughesie said on The Morning Line that he would ride Log Out Island if he had the choice. Paddy Power offering money back as a free bet if second or third.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,393 ✭✭✭PM me nudes


    It's strange that Pleascach doesn't have to carry a Group 1 penalty in The Ribblesdale. Makes her task a lot more straightforward.

    She escapes as Group 1 penalties only apply to Group 1's over 1m2f plus for this race


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,393 ✭✭✭PM me nudes


    Hughesie said on The Morning Line that he would ride Log Out Island if he had the choice. Paddy Power offering money back as a free bet if second or third.

    A pic of Hughes just after the Morning Line

    south-park-s06e08c07-randy-tries-it-out-16x9.jpg


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,057 ✭✭✭✭shmeee


    Log out Island for the first?

    Looks a cracking bet w/o the fav @ 4/5 WH or 8/11 in Ladbrokes. As low as 4/9 in places.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 338 ✭✭faoile@n


    akelly02 wrote: »
    Used to be a big fan of Hughes but he talks fierce muck sometimes....Ivawood pissed me off yest saying he wont be bet.

    Horses are not machines.

    Pocket talking after losing your bollix on Ivawood?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 473 ✭✭magicmoves


    Money coming for Log Out Island


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,142 ✭✭✭akelly02


    faoile@n wrote: »
    Horses are not machines.

    Pocket talking after losing your bollix on Ivawood?

    No i didnt back him, i posted my bets earlier in the day 2 thread. What pisses me off is Hughes talking dirt bigging up these Hannon Horses and then ending up with egg on his face.

    I stopped listening to him when he said Toronado was better than Canford Cliffs


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,553 ✭✭✭✭Copper_pipe


    Royal Ascot


    Day 3


    By Peter Cahill & Dan Reidy

    Norfolk Stakes


    Eight of the last 12 runnings have gone the way of the favourite or second-favourite. It should again this year as this race looks a two horse race. Just two Norfolk Stakes winners since 1991 had tasted defeat on their previous start so it is best to concentrate on such runners of which there will be many. Therefore, to cut the parameters further, I suggest looking to those yet to taste defeat as 14 of the last 21 winners had perfect records entering the race and six of the last nine winners arrived here with the profile of one run and one win. Also all five winners since 1997 that had run more than twice were beaten first time out. All the stats point to the Richard Hannon pair King of Rooks and Log Out Island who are 1st and 2nd in the betting.


    King Of Rooks has been one of the most impressive 2 year old’s this season. He was 3rd on debut behind Steady Pace and Beeverbrook. Both of them were placed here earlier in the week. King of Rooks was a shade unlucky in that race and ran green. He then won by 6 lengths at Newbury over 6F. His most recent run at Sandown, was scintillating. He was sent to the front and there was no catching him. He beat Buratino by 5 lengths and it easily could've been more. Buratino has since won at Epsom by 6 lengths and won the Coventry Stakes here earlier in the week in great style. The 6th in that race at Sandown was 2nd here earlier in the week too so the form is very strong. King Of Rooks has the ground in favour and is sure to take all the beating.


    Log Out Island rates as the main and only danger to King of Rooks. He has only run once and won. He beat Handytalk by 4 and ½ lengths on debut with Buratino a length back in 3rd. That form is very strong and it ties in with King of Rooks. Buratino’s following run was that 5 length defeat at the hands of King of Rooks at Sandown which could’ve been more. Handytalk was a further 2 and half length back in 4th that day. Buratino won 3 races following that. There’s not much between Log Out Island and King of Rooks on form, I’d give the edge to the latter on form. I think King Of Rooks experience will stand him in good stead though. He’s had 2 more runs and he looked the last day like he was unbeatable. This race will come down to a great speed battle of King of Rooks and Log Out Island. I think King of Rooks will be too strong.


    Of the outsiders French Encore is one I like. His form like most in here is no where as good as the first two in the betting but I think he could grab a place. He showed some decent form in France and won easy on debut at Bath. He’s very speedy but lacks class though.


    Selection: King Of Rooks 10/11
    Outsider: French Encore 25/1


    Tercentenary Stakes:


    To get just over 2/1 for the selection at time of writing seems decent value for this Group 3 where it seems all the best trainers are being represented. Time Test did win at the distance last time out when ridden by Ryan Moore and could have been a shade lucky as he was fortunate to get the breaks at the right time and squeezed through inside the last furlong. Moore has been retained by Michael Stout to ride Disegno so Frankie Dettori takes the reigns and i'm sure he will keep the horse more handy this time. The Richard Hannon trained Peacock may be the main danger and to be honest i'd have probably taken him each way if the odds had been a shade better but i'm happy with the 2/1 available for the selection.



    Selection: Time Test 2/1


    Ribblesdale Stakes:


    14 of the last 16 winners of this race had won either of their last two starts and six of the last seven winners had won at Group or Listed level. So you’re looking for a horse coming into the race in top form. For me this race revolves around 1 filly and that is the Jim Bolder trained Pleascach. She brings the best form into the race, she won the Irish 1000 Guineas last time out. The form of that race has worked out well. Qualify who was 10th has since won the Epsom Oaks. On form Pleascach has the beating of most of these. She beat Curvy by 6 lengths as a 2 year old. Curvy has won 3 in a row but struggled to beat Ringside Humor in 2 of those races. Ringside Humor is trained by Jim Bolger and is not in the same league as Pleascach. The furthest Pleascach has run is 1 mile 2 and ½ furlongs. She's going up in trip to 1 mile 4 today. Some people in the media have been saying she won’t stay but I think she will have no problem seeing out the trip. She is class above these and 8/11 is a fantastic price given what she has done.


    Gretchen maybe the one to put up a fight against Pleascach. She’s 1 from 1. She won a maiden in good style over this trip and is well bred. It’s a big ask though for her to go from a maiden to a G2. Pleascach has already won a G1. The Aidan O'Brien trained Wedding Vow has yet to win a race after 4 runs but has shown a high level of form. She was 2nd to Legitisimo who went on and won the English 1000 Guineas and was 2nd to Qualify in the Epsom Oaks. Wedding Vow ran a nice race in the Oaks trial at Lingfield last time out. She is sure to stay this trip but on form has a bit to find with Pleascach like most in here. Of the others Pamona could run well. She has yet to prove she stays this trip though but her recent 3rd was very eye catching and could grab a place here. If Pleascach stays the trip she wins, simple as.



    Selection: Pleascach 8/11
    Outsider: Wedding Vow 14/1


    Ascot Gold Cup:


    This is the longest G1 on the Flat all season and my favourite race of the week. This is a grueling test and a lot of the non stayers will be beat before turning for home. Irish horses have won 7 of the last 9 runnings of this race. The Irish trained Forgotten Rules is set to start a warm favourite for Dermot Weld having added the Vintage Crop Stakes at Navan last month. He won the British Champions Series Long Distance Cup over 2 mile on this track last October. Three winners since 2007 won the Vintage Crop en route to success here. He’s unbeaten in 4 starts including a NH bumper. He won a maiden at the Galway Festival last year by half the track and did not disappoint when upped in class. His trainer thinks an awful lot of this horse and there sure is more to come. Free Eagle won at the track for Weld yesterday so the yard is in top form. The only slight doubt about Forgotten Rules is the ground. His best form has been on soft but has won twice on good ground. There is no forecast rain but the clerk of the track said the course will be watered overnight which could make the difference. He should go on the ground if firm, I think the doubts are more so about the horses future. 2 miles 4F on Firm ground can ruin a good horse. There are no real doubts about this horse and he should win.


    Aidan O'Brien has a great record in this race. He won it 4 times with Yeats and twice since with Fame and Glory and Leading Light. This year Aidan runs Kingfisher who was 2nd in last years Irish Derby. The furthest race he won was over 1 mile 6F. There is a stamina doubt about him but there were doubts about his other winners staying the trip in this race too. He has 8 and a ½ lengths to find with Forgotten Rules on his run in the Vintage Crop Stakes over 1 mile 6F. He then followed that up with a win at Leopardstown. Even if he sees out the trip he still has a lot of work to do to beat a proven stayer in Forgotten Rules. Is sure to be bang there at the finish but should come up short.


    Mizzou the second favourite comes into the race in great form. He won the Sagaro Stakes over 2 mile at this track on his only run this season. That was the furthest he has run so far and he was tiring late on. I’d have my doubts about him seeing out the trip. On the form he also has a fair bit to find with Forgotten Rules. I think 5/1 is a very short price for a horse who might not stay. I couldn’t have him at all. Vent De Force is the one who I think can put up the biggest fight to Forgotten Rules. He was an unlucky 2nd behind Mizzou on this course in the Sagaro stakes. He really should of won that day. He then beat one of today’s rivals Trip to Paris at Sandown over 2 miles and ½ furlong. He made all that day and dictated the pace. He may try and do the same again today. He looks like he will improve for this trip.


    Trip to Paris was staying on well at the finish behind Vent De Force but the winner was well in command. Trip to Paris has gone from strength to strength this season. He has won 3 of his last 4 races including the Chester Cup over 2 Miles 2 and ½ furlongs. He has gone up 19lbs in the ratings by doing so. This is a different kettle of fish though. He is sure to stay but I think he may be outclassed by a few in here. He and Vent De Force at both at 10/1 which is a decent e.w price for both. Simenon has a great record in staying races at this track and in this race. He was 2nd in this 2 years back and 4th in this last year. He’s 8 years old now though and is coming back from an injury. Like he did last year in this race, he will be passing the tiring non stayers late on and could reach the top 5 but I can’t see him winning. If the ground doesn’t get too hard Forgotten Rules should win this.


    Selection: Forgotten Rules 5/2


    Britannia Stakes:


    Features 30 three-year-olds, the majority of which are unexposed and from top yards, for my money the Britannia Stakes is the most competitive (though not impossible) three-year-old handicap of the season. It has been a very good race for favourites, 17 of the last 24 winners could be found in the first half-dozen in the betting so this isn’t the punters' nightmare. Many punters fall into the trap of backing a flashy, last-time-out maiden winner from a big yard but no horse with such a profile has won in 18 years ago. An emerging pattern is that the four of the last five winners won a handicap on their previous start. On the weight front, the fact that just three of the last 25 winners have carried have carried over 9st should set alarm bells ringing if you fancy one of the top weights. It has also paid to overlook horses that failed to notch up a top-four finish last time out as just two winners since 1991 did not adhere to this. So you’re looking for a horse coming into the race in top form and has a few runs under its belt and carries under 9 stone.


    I’ve narrowed the field down to 8 runners. From there it’s tough to pick a winner. 6 of the 8 horses are very closely matched on form. The one that stands out the most to me is Sahaafy. He won a handicap on his last starts and races of 9 stone 1lb. I think this horse is a group calibar horse and he could be thrown in at the weights. The form of each of his runs has worked out so well. 2 runs back he was only barely beaten by Always Smile. He was very unlucky not to win that day. Always Smile was 2nd here yesterday in another 3 year old handicap. This race is a lesser version of that race though. Sahaafy could be class above these. Her last win was very eye catching. She beat Angel Vision by 5 lengths going away at the finish. It could've easily been 10 lengths. Angel vision previously ran 4th to Sahaafy’s stablemate Fadhiyyal, he was placed in a group 2 race here yesterday. Sahaafy’s trainer is the great Barry Hills who came out of retirement to train this horse as the former trainer, his son passed away. It would be a great win for the family if Sahaafy could win.


    Sahaafy is owned by Hamdan Al Maktoum, he also runs Mutarakez. Paul Hanagan has the pick of the two horses be decided to ride the latter. Mutarakez’s form is not as strong as Sahaafy’s though and he has to give Sahaafy 2lbs. Mutarakez has been impressive of late though, winning 3 on the trot. He’s a good horse but I think he’s too high in the weights. Another horse I really like in here is Azraff who brings some good placed form into the race. He ran 2nd to Peacock 3 runs back, he since ran a close 2nd to the Epsom Derby winner Golden Horn. Also Azraff’s last run might bring the best piece of form into this race. He was 4th behind Time Test and Dissalusion who both run in other races today. A good showing from them would improve this one’s chances. Azraff has run into a few well handicapped horses this season and a win is certainly not out of the question here. Some of his form ties in with Sahaafy and he gets 4lbs off that one.


    Of the others the Queen’s Capel Path has a chance. He brings good form into the race and is sure to be primed for this race. His run behind Mister Universe last time out was quite good but has work to do with Sahaafy on form. The Richard Hannon trained King to be has a chance, on form he should finish in front of Capel Path but might come up short at the business end. Rotherick’s 2nd to Jack Hobbs was a good run, albeit a 12 length defeat. Stavagante was back in 3rd and that has won since. He’s another who could run well but might be too high up the weights.


    Of the rank outsiders in here, Crescent catches my eye. He’s trained in Qatar by a relatively unknown trainer but he used to be trained in Ireland by David Watchman. He had some top class form in Ireland. He ran 3rd in a maiden behind Tombeliane and Highland Reel. That is top form seen that Tombelaine was placed in the Irish Guineas behind Gleneagles and Highland Reel was placed in the French Oaks. He won a decent maiden at Naas after that. He then went to Qatar where he won 2 races and finished 4th behind a decent horse. His last run was in Newbury over 1 mile 2. It was that top Time Test race that Azraff was 4th in. Crescent tried to make all and faded late on into 7th. Not beaten too far my Azraff. The drop back in trip here to 1 mile is sure to suit as he’s won at that trip. The ground is sure to suit and I can’t believe the price of 125/1. Paddy Power are playing 6 places and I would not rule this one out! This is a tough race to find the winner of so I’m going to go for a few each way.


    Selection: Sahaafy 10/1 & Azraff 25/1
    Outsider: Crescent 125/1


    King George V Stakes:


    Dissolution raced 4 times as a 2yo and won his maiden on his last run of the season when winning at Goodwood. He has since won a 10 furlong Newmarket handicap and finished 2nd to Time Test in the 10 furlong London Gold Cup at Newbury. The step up to 12 furlongs should suit Dissolution, who's trainer Sir Michael Stoute has enjoyed plenty of success in the past in this event and the booking of Ryan Moore suggests that Dissolution is likely to run well. For an eacy way shout I like Taper Tantrum. In the King George a lot are expected to improve with the step up in trip; Taper Tantrum is a nice profile , won twice as two years old and came back at his reappearance with a strong ran finishing 3rd in the opening race at Epsom Derby Day. Micheal Bell’s charge has a typical stayer pedigree and judging from his running style the extra 2 furlong should suit, perfect jockey booking for an held horse if Jamie Spencer ‘ll be able to avoid traffic in run.



    Selection: Taper Tantrum 10/1 e/w & Dissolution win


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,018 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    faoile@n wrote: »
    Horses are not machines.

    Pocket talking after losing your bollix on Ivawood?
    Jockey's and trainers are often the source of some of the worst tips out there. Some will literally tell you nothing (Willie Mullins), some will just talk up everything (Aidan O'Brien) and some will outright tell you lies (Ruby Walsh).


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,003 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    Kor might not end up going off fav at this rate
    I am glad Hughes had gone for the other one
    Joe public has followed so the price on kor will be bigger than expected


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,246 ✭✭✭Mgoraf


    Time Test looks a shocking price in the Tercentenary. Doesn't look a great race on paper tbf. Think the favourite is a lay anyway, maybe Disegno e/w to take him on.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 126 ✭✭brassringclub


    Money back if 2nd or 3rd with boyles in the Tercentenary.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 110 ✭✭another36


    More tiny stakes interest bets

    Wedding vow
    Simenon
    Amzour
    Maxwell
    EW Lucky 15

    Cape Clear Island
    Trip to Paris
    King Bolete
    EW Trixie

    Vent de force
    Mutarakez
    Dissution
    EW Trixie


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 698 ✭✭✭Sirtoyou


    Space Age 5.35 12/1 general, better to take 11/1 5places on BFSB if you can get on.

    Won a 5 runner hcap lto in workman like fashion front running, but it was its previous run in the handicap that Time Test won was very eye catching. Hampered when making his run and finished very well. 2.3 for a place in the 5 place market on BF so 1/4 5 places is 3.675 a place so great value there alone.


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