Conspiracy Theory #637: Bank collapse

Egginacup

A friend of mine told me a few weeks ago that another major financial crash was imminent. She's not some crank but rather a clever girl with a 1st class honours degree in Mathematics and has worked as a currency trader in the US and Ireland before packing it in because she hated it. She said that it took her nearly a month to get her money out of the bank (HSBC) and that HSBC were essentially fcuked with what she said about their balance sheet. She also mentioned the coming implosion of the property bubble in the SE of England.

What makes me mention this is a headline in the BBC today:

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-33058957

Time to start shorting bank and property stocks again?

Robbo

Egginacup wrote: »

Time to start shorting bank and property stocks again?

Max Keiser says to invest in silver and sexy pictures of Putin doing manly things.

Egginacup

Egginacup wrote: »

A friend of mine told me a few weeks ago that another major financial crash was imminent. She's not some crank but rather a clever girl with a 1st class honours degree in Mathematics and has worked as a currency trader in the US and Ireland before packing it in because she hated it.

How would she know that, having packed in a trading job that wasn't even with HSBC?

People have been talking about an HSBC collapse for years, despite refusing to acknowledge that the reason for HSBC's difficulties is that it is a deposit-laden behemoth (that's a good thing) whose only problem is that it cannot compete on the sexier side of its operations.

HSBC will not collapse. Before you say 'that's what they said about Lehman Bros', HSBC is nothing like LB in its operations nor in its balance sheet.

HSBC were essentially fcuked with what she said about their balance sheet.

She's likely wrong about the balance sheet then. Whilst today's 1% in the share price is significant, I'd be careful about taking financial advice from that girl, if I were you.

Time to start shorting bank and property stocks again?

Finally something that is characteristic of the banking crisis: everyone on an internet forum is short-selling, and "long on gold futures" and **** towards the apocalypse. Boring chat.

Massimo Cassagrande

It's probably the heat doing it..I'm close to collapse today too. The paddy-body can't take it..

Toots

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

Finally something that is characteristic of the banking crisis: everyone on an internet forum is short-selling, and "long on gold futures" and **** towards the apocalypse. Boring chat.

What??????

jimgoose

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

How would she know that, having packed in a trading job that wasn't even with HSBC?

People have been talking about an HSBC collapse for years, despite refusing to acknowledge that the reason for HSBC's difficulties is that it is a deposit-laden behemoth (that's a good thing) whose only problem is that it cannot compete on the sexier side of its operations.

HSBC will not collapse. Before you say 'that's what they said about Lehman Bros', HSBC is nothing like LB in its operations nor in its balance sheet.

She's likely wrong about the balance sheet then. Whilst today's 1% in the share price is significant, I'd be careful about taking financial advice from that girl, if I were you.

Finally something that is characteristic of the banking crisis: everyone on an internet forum is short-selling, and "long on gold futures" and **** towards the apocalypse. Boring chat.

Can I just say that "**** Towards The Apocalypse" is going to be the title of my next album? Bravo, Sir!!

_Kaiser_

Thread title, and then the speculation in the OP reminds me of this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=coDtzN6bXAM

(from 1:10 to 1:50)

Must watch that film again

Toots

Toots wrote: »

What??????

Calamity fetishism in other words.

The scourge of finance/banking forums. Bit unhinged.

IvaBigWun

This is how runs on banks start.

This thread shouldnt be just locked, it should be deleted.

Aongus Von Bismarck

IvaBigWun wrote: »

This is how runs on banks start.

This thread shouldnt be just locked, it should be deleted.

Believe me, some frustrated neckbeard on a message forum interfering with himself as he fantasies about a bank collapsing, and his hated Capitalism being plunged into crisis isn't how a run starts on a bank.

The Backwards Man

IvaBigWun wrote: »

This is how runs on banks start.

This thread shouldnt be just locked, it should be deleted.

If anybody closed their bank account based on the above info, I would seriously question their eligibility for having one in the first place.

PissFlapsDory

Just off topic a bit.....but Jesus Mary and Joseph how many chins does Joe Duffy have?? You can hardly make out the guys face, it is just stuffed with fat, gets any bigger and your talking some serious money there, might even have space to build a house on it . Have a look in the Indo online.

maxwell smart

Egginacup wrote: »

A friend of mine told me a few weeks ago that another major financial crash was imminent. She's not some crank but rather a clever girl with a 1st class honours degree in Mathematics and has worked as a currency trader in the US and Ireland before packing it in because she hated it. She said that it took her nearly a month to get her money out of the bank (HSBC) and that HSBC were essentially fcuked with what she said about their balance sheet. She also mentioned the coming implosion of the property bubble in the SE of England.

What makes me mention this is a headline in the BBC today:

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-33058957

Time to start shorting bank and property stocks again?

If you base your investment decisions on someone who couldn't cut it in the world of finance, you won't have much success.

This is a completely wrong take on the HSBC situation.

Property in the SE of England will continue to grow at a rate of approx 3-5% for the next 5 years, then level off. The demand cycle for that area of the UK should insulate it from any general fall in property prices

IvaBigWun

Aongus Von Bismarck wrote: »

Believe me, some frustrated neckbeard on a message forum interfering with himself as he fantasies about a bank collapsing, and his hated Capitalism being plunged into crisis isn't how a run starts on a bank.

The Backwards Man wrote: »

If anybody closed their bank account based on the above info, I would seriously question their eligibility for having one in the first place.

Its how rumours start though lads.

"Is X Bank fúcked?" type threads were banned on AH back during the recession of 2008. I dont see how this is any different.

Eugene Norman

maxwell smart wrote: »

If you base your investment decisions on someone who couldn't cut it in the world of finance, you won't have much success.

This is a completely wrong take on the HSBC situation.

Property in the SE of England will continue to grow at a rate of approx 3-5% for the next 5 years, then level off. The demand cycle for that area of the UK should insulate it from any general fall in property prices

I don't think she's right about hsbc and I do have money there but the idea that the smart people in finance can predict the future is evidentially empirically false. They are particularly not very good at soft landing. I'll take your soft landing with a large pinch of salt, thank you.

jimgoose

IvaBigWun wrote: »

Its how rumours start though lads.

"Is X Bank fúcked?" type threads were banned on AH back during the recession of 2008. I dont see how this is any different.

Rumours are started by people who want to start rumours. People who think they are excluded from the current "System", whatsoever it may be, foam at the mouth and damn-and-blast. 'Twas ever thus. My wannabe-Teutonic colleague above is quite correct, there are wilder skies than these. It is however, the good, as you say, incorrectly-spelt crack.

c_man

another major financial crash was imminent.

Won't affect me, I have no money :cool:

jimgoose

c_man wrote: »

Won't affect me, I have no money :cool:

You won't need it. You will however, need a Kawasaki Z1000 with a hatchet-holster. See you on the road, scag!

BoJack Horseman

I've all my money in zeppelin, slavery & hay stocks.

I predict big gains.

Clandestine

AIB and co. are next

jimgoose

Clandestine wrote: »

AIB and co. are next

AIB was always a sort of hippy-commune for gob****es in cheap suits.

mikemac1

I'm going to invest in pumpkins and fireworks in November!

fxotoole

I hear tulips are the next big thing.....

IvaBigWun

IvaBigWun wrote: »

"Is X Bank fúcked?" type threads were banned on AH back during the recession of 2008. I dont see how this is any different.

Probably because they were overwrought and popped up too frequently, and not because of genuine concern about boards.ie sparking market collapse.

Markets love to be spooked, but not by boards.ie, nor indeed HSBC.

tritium

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

Finally something that is characteristic of the banking crisis: everyone on an internet forum is short-selling, and "long on gold futures" and **** towards the apocalypse. Boring chat.

I'd expected this thread to be pointless rubbish. Thank you for making it worthwhile on the basis of that one line alone.

Fratton Fred

I can see all the analysts in Wall Street subscribing to Boards to get their market information from now on.

SEPT 23 1989

Are the drug cartels looking for their money back?

IvaBigWun

IvaBigWun wrote: »

Its how rumours start though lads.

"Is X Bank fúcked?" type threads were banned on AH back during the recession of 2008. I dont see how this is any different.

Banks X, Y & Zed were fúcked in 2008, too many safeguards in place now for a major player to fail. Those turbo powered pressed will backfill any holes if needed!

circadian

Better throw me cash into a Russian bank so, any recommendations?

porsche959

HSBC collapse? Not likely, laundering drug money is quite lucrative.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jun/04/hsbc-fined-278m-over-money-laundering-claims

porsche959

maxwell smart wrote: »

If you base your investment decisions on someone who couldn't cut it in the world of finance, you won't have much success.

This is a completely wrong take on the HSBC situation.

Property in the SE of England will continue to grow at a rate of approx 3-5% for the next 5 years, then level off. The demand cycle for that area of the UK should insulate it from any general fall in property prices

You won't last long in finance yourself if you make such blase predictions with unwarranted confidence. There are many reasons to be concerned about the London property market. I am not going to predict precisely when it will crash because that's a mug's game, but a lot of dodgy money floating about there.

wil

By 2006 the property crash was completely predictable, by 2008 the banking crisis same, by 2012 the housing/homelessness crisis was in full go.
Vested interests come with great rose tinted blinkers.
To find the truth in any rumour, start with who is denying it most.

But meh, hasn't the HSBC or as I still prefer to call the Midland Bank been going belly up for decades now.

Eugene Norman

wil wrote: »

By 2006 the property crash was completely predictable, by 2008 the banking crisis same, by 2012 the housing/homelessness crisis was in full go.
Vested interests come with great rose tinted blinkers.
To find the truth in any rumour, start with who is denying it most.

But meh, hasn't the HSBC or as I still prefer to call the Midland Bank been going belly up for decades now.

HSBC was founded in Asia. It's much more a depositors bank than an investment bank which is why it weathered the storm recently quite. Clearly it's not all saintly but it's got to be one of the safest banks.

Eugene Norman

porsche959 wrote: »

You won't last long in finance yourself if you make such blase predictions with unwarranted confidence. There are many reasons to be concerned about the London property market. I am not going to predict precisely when it will crash because that's a mug's game, but a lot of dodgy money floating about there.

Fact is nobody knows what's going to happen when interest rates rise.however If London survives an interest rate increase with a soft landing I'll be surprised.

dubscottie

Why is anyone even replying to this? Egginacup is a Russian shill, spambot etc..

All he ever starts or posts on is Pro Russian, anti Europe, anti NATO, Russia has a bigger dick than the USA's posts and there is no Russians in Ukraine.

Don't entertain him.

Eugene Norman

dubscottie wrote: »

Why is anyone even replying to this? Egginacup is a Russian shill, spambot etc..

All he ever starts or posts on is Pro Russian, anti Europe, anti NATO, Russia has a bigger dick than the USA's posts and there is no Russians in Ukraine.

Don't entertain him.

Maybe he's bad on Russia and good on hsbc?

AndonHandon

HSBC's investment banking arm is full of jumped up preppies acting at being cocks of the walk which is no wonder that it has been wrapped up in seriously high profile scandals from Madoff to drug cartels. Anytime there is a settlement in a case it is to ensure damaging information does not make it into the public domain. It should ship its HQ out to Asia and go back to its roots.

Toots

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

Probably because they were overwrought and popped up too frequently, and not because of genuine concern about boards.ie sparking market collapse.

Markets love to be spooked, but not by boards.ie, nor indeed HSBC.

Those threads are still banned in the Banking forum. Not because we're afraid of Boards sparking a market collapse, but more because quite often when one poster would say something like "Has anyone heard any rumours that XYZ bank is in trouble?" but some posters would read that as "XYZ bank is gone bust! Get all your money out now! Put it all in an old sock and bury it down the garden!!" and it all spirals from there, with people panicking that their money isn't safe and getting themselves in a state.

I worked in branch banking during that time, and the amount of people coming in looking to withdraw every penny they had was unreal. And they were genuinely terrified when you told them that they couldn't leave the branch with €100k in cash on the spot - we just didn't keep that much readily available. Also it'd be a fine how-do-you-do if they walked out the front door and got mugged, the headlines would be "PENSIONER BLUDGEONED AND LOSES LIFE SAVINGS AFTER BANK LETS THEM LEAVE WITH €100K IN A TESCO BAG" In the end, if a customer really insisted on taking out huge wads of money to keep in their house, they had to sit down with the manager and sign a form saying that they had been made aware of the risks of carrying such a huge amount of cash, and acknowledging that the bank couldn't be held responsible for what happened once they left the branch.

RDM_83 again

Well the mood around london in terms of property seems the seems to be the same as height of celtic tiger dublin upto conversations with people where they can't conceive of the idea of the property prices not rising, maybe the demand will keep it stable but I don't know you can't run global city if the only people than can afford to live in it are earning 30k plus, can see it crashing in a couple of years (sooner depending on Russia, Gult states or China)

Massimo Cassagrande

RDM_83 again wrote: »

Well the mood around london in terms of property seems the seems to be the same as height of celtic tiger dublin upto conversations with people where they can't conceive of the idea of the property prices not rising, maybe the demand will keep it stable but I don't know you can't run global city if the only people than can afford to live in it are earning 30k plus, can see it crashing in a couple of years (sooner depending on Russia, Gult states or China)

Yeah. First said In 1431. You need to study the history of London. It was dear, is dear and always will be dear to live in - and the only way is up, barring minor, mug-removing blips.

wil

Eugene Norman wrote: »

HSBC was founded in Asia. It's much more a depositors bank than an investment bank which is why it weathered the storm recently quite. Clearly it's not all saintly but it's got to be one of the safest banks.

We'll doh. Really? HongKong and Shanghai Banking Corporation?. Nah.:rolleyes:


If they hadn't taken over my Midland account they'd be doing fine now.

josip

Egginacup wrote: »

A friend of mine told me a few weeks ago that another major financial crash was imminent. She's not some crank but rather a clever girl with a 1st class honours degree in Mathematics and has worked as a currency trader in the US and Ireland before packing it in because she hated it. She said that it took her nearly a month to get her money out of the bank (HSBC) and that HSBC were essentially fcuked with what she said about their balance sheet. She also mentioned the coming implosion of the property bubble in the SE of England.

What makes me mention this is a headline in the BBC today:

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-33058957

Time to start shorting bank and property stocks again?

I suspect that what really makes you mention it are your employers, the same people who fund this site.

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article37475.htm

deandean

HSBC is just too big.
it is never going to collapse.
Honestly.

Yurt2

Fractional reserve lending something something, Bitcoin something something.

Egginacup

maxwell smart wrote: »

If you base your investment decisions on someone who couldn't cut it in the world of finance, you won't have much success.

This is a completely wrong take on the HSBC situation.

Property in the SE of England will continue to grow at a rate of approx 3-5% for the next 5 years, then level off. The demand cycle for that area of the UK should insulate it from any general fall in property prices

Could you explain why you say this?

RDM_83 again

Massimo Cassagrande wrote: »

Yeah. First said In 1431. You need to study the history of London. It was dear, is dear and always will be dear to live in - and the only way is up, barring minor, mug-removing blips.

Meh, take a look at a comparative graph (can only find ones for just the UK but london will be a more extreme version of it) that show compares real earnings to house prices and you will see the difference.
And while London has always been expensive up till the 90's for council stock and running up to say the mid to late 2000's for squats, things that offered an alternative to an overheated market and there was substantial amounts of people in council housing (squats probably would be fairly insignificant but I know people that lived in them while holding down full time jobs).
My point isn't simply about house prices its that you can't operate a functioning economy with only high earners, you need all the support and infrastructure provided by (comparatively) low earners.

Edit: actually here is the sort of graph I was looking for, so shove that sarcasm!
http://www.edmundconway.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/nationwidehousepriceearnings.jpg

Egginacup

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

How would she know that, having packed in a trading job that wasn't even with HSBC?

People have been talking about an HSBC collapse for years, despite refusing to acknowledge that the reason for HSBC's difficulties is that it is a deposit-laden behemoth (that's a good thing) whose only problem is that it cannot compete on the sexier side of its operations.

HSBC will not collapse. Before you say 'that's what they said about Lehman Bros', HSBC is nothing like LB in its operations nor in its balance sheet.

She's likely wrong about the balance sheet then. Whilst today's 1% in the share price is significant, I'd be careful about taking financial advice from that girl, if I were you.

Finally something that is characteristic of the banking crisis: everyone on an internet forum is short-selling, and "long on gold futures" and **** towards the apocalypse. Boring chat.

You're probably right.

Egginacup

[QUOTE=Eugene Norman;95823175]Fact is nobody knows what's going to happen when interest rates rise.however If London survives an interest rate increase with a soft landing I'll be surprised.[/QUOTE]


Why would you say that?

That's as flippant and baseless as someone saying "Nobody knows what will happen when the Sun rises."

Egginacup

maxwell smart wrote: »

If you base your investment decisions on someone who couldn't cut it in the world of finance, you won't have much success.

This is a completely wrong take on the HSBC situation.

Property in the SE of England will continue to grow at a rate of approx 3-5% for the next 5 years, then level off. The demand cycle for that area of the UK should insulate it from any general fall in property prices

Well, actually, she could "cut it" in the world of finance and made almost 3 million in 14 months for herself at the age of 26. She loathed the job and left.

She is a bit hippy and full on but mathematically and politically astute.

porsche959

Massimo Cassagrande wrote: »

Yeah. First said In 1431. You need to study the history of London. It was dear, is dear and always will be dear to live in - and the only way is up, barring minor, mug-removing blips.

This time it's different because...reasons....this particular city/country is different because of reasons - that's what they always say during/at the peak of bubbles...

porsche959

Egginacup wrote: »

Why would you say that?

That's as flippant and baseless as someone saying "Nobody knows what will happen when the Sun rises."

I don't think Eugene Norman suggested that at all. The outcomes of bubbles crashing are unpredictable. All we can say at present is that London property market valuations seem to be out of sync with historic norms, as the graph RDM_83 presented seems to exhibit.