Irish RWC squad prediction

pmasterson95

For fun does anyone want to try to predict our squad that'll be selected?

total former

Probably no harm to have a dedicated thread.

Key word is "predicted", i.e. what you think Joe Schmidt will pick, which is vastly different from what you would pick.

Here's my stab at it:

Props (6): Healy, McGrath, Kilcoyne, Ross, Moore, Furlong
Hookers (3): Best, Cronin, Strauss
Second-row (4): O'Connell, Toner, Tuohy, Henderson
Back-row (5): O'Brien, O'Mahony, Heaslip, Murphy, Henry
Scrum-half (3): Murray, Reddan, Boss
Out-half (3): Sexton, Madigan, Jackson
Backs (7): Bowe, Fitzgerald, Payne, Henshaw, Kearney, Earls, Jones

Personally, I'd drop Kilcoyne and Furlong and just bring Bent to allow the choice of an extra back-row (Ruddock) or outside back (Trimble/McFadden), but that's my guess.

Injuries will drive a coach and four through that prediction between now and the end of August, of course.

Buer

I think Bent will travel ahead of either Kilcoyne or Furlong due to his versatility. He did quite well off the bench against the Barbarians and the scrum looked stronger. Interestingly, it was at loosehead where he made the impact.

The last couple of outside back spots are going to be very tight. The only one you mention, TF, that I think is in any way likely to miss out is Earls simply as he hasn't been involved to date.

That leaves Zebo, DK, Earls, Gilroy, McFadden and Trimble all fighting for one spot. They'll need to have a big performance in the warm ups to sneak in. Given the competition I don't think any of them could expect more than 80 minutes so they'll need to grab the opportunity with both hands.

aimee1

Buer wrote: »

I think Bent will travel ahead of either Kilcoyne or Furlong due to his versatility. He did quite well off the bench against the Barbarians and the scrum looked stronger. Interestingly, it was at loosehead where he made the impact.

The last couple of outside back spots are going to be very tight. The only one you mention, TF, that I think is in any way likely to miss out is Earls simply as he hasn't been involved to date.

That leaves Zebo, DK, Earls, Gilroy, McFadden and Trimble all fighting for one spot. They'll need to have a big performance in the warm ups to sneak in. Given the competition I don't think any of them could expect more than 80 minutes so they'll need to grab the opportunity with both hands.

Earls has been part of the extended training in 6n so I dont think he hasnt been involved as such, just not in the 23. He is the best player of that 6 you mention. But if trimble comes back in august and puts in a few decent performances then He might get the nod.

Hype710

As above in the main for me, I think Bent will get the nod as discussed and Ruddock/Donnacha Ryan might get in but the one area I think people are neglecting is the centres, in particular at 12. I can't see Schmidt going with just IM as a back up 12 should anything happen to Henshaw so I think we'll see Cave travelling (his partnership with Payne and ability to cover 12/13 getting him the nod over D'arcy) and the 'fourth' winger to drop out.

Mahatma Geansai

total former wrote: »

Probably no harm to have a dedicated thread.

Key word is "predicted", i.e. what you think Joe Schmidt will pick, which is vastly different from what you would pick.

Here's my stab at it:

Props (6): Healy, McGrath, Kilcoyne, Ross, Moore, Furlong
Hookers (3): Best, Cronin, Strauss
Second-row (4): O'Connell, Toner, Tuohy, Henderson
Back-row (5): O'Brien, O'Mahony, Heaslip, Murphy, Henry
Scrum-half (3): Murray, Reddan, Boss
Out-half (3): Sexton, Madigan, Jackson
Backs (7): Bowe, Fitzgerald, Payne, Henshaw, Kearney, Earls, Jones

Personally, I'd drop Kilcoyne and Furlong and just bring Bent to allow the choice of an extra back-row (Ruddock) or outside back (Trimble/McFadden), but that's my guess.

Injuries will drive a coach and four through that prediction between now and the end of August, of course.

I'd imagine that the squad listed above will be pretty much bang on. There might be 2/3 changes, but nothing major barring injury. Bent might come in for Kilcoyne, Trimble might come in for Earls, and Ruddock could sneak in ahead of Murphy. Ryan and Tuohy are probably pretty neck-and-neck for the 4th lock spot. I wouldn't be surprised to see D'Arcy somehow finding a spot on the plane too.

It'll be disappointing that the form of the provinces over the last year probably won't have any real effect on the composition of the squad, however.

aimee1

Mahatma Geansai wrote: »

It'll be disappointing that the form of the provinces over the last year probably won't have any real effect on the composition of the squad, however.

surely the form of the national team takes far more signifigance over the 'form of the provinces' ??? I dont see how the form of the provinces would change anything really

George Hook

So.. when is it actually being announced? I know 'around lunch time' but what day/week?

CIARAN_BOYLE

probably on the thursday at lunchtime after the second warm up match.

Sorry i haven't looked up the date for you.

George Hook

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

probably on the thursday at lunchtime after the second warm up match.

Sorry i haven't looked up the date for you.

thanks, but my mistake I wasn't clear in what I was asking. I really wanted to know when the full training squad would be announced since I think all the other 'home' teams had theirs announced this week.

My bad.. was in a rush.

total former

George Hook wrote: »

thanks, but my mistake I wasn't clear in what I was asking. I really wanted to know when the full training squad would be announced since I think all the other 'home' teams had theirs announced this week.

My bad.. was in a rush.

We may not announce one at all since all the players likely to be involved are contracted to IRFU. With the other countries, that's not the case so they'd need to notify the clubs involved that their players are being called up.

We won't hear anything until after the Tbilisi Cup, if we hear anything at all.

George Hook

total former wrote: »

We may not announce one at all since all the players likely to be involved are contracted to IRFU. With the other countries, that's not the case so they'd need to notify the clubs involved that their players are being called up.

We won't hear anything until after the Tbilisi Cup, if we hear anything at all.

Ah, I had forgotten about that IRB contractual caveat. Thanks.

Zzippy

Reddan/Boss... ugh. Pray for Murray's knee injury to heal quickly...

Glass Prison 1214

Props (5): Healy, McGrath, Kilcoyne, Ross, Bent
Hookers (3): Best, Cronin, Strauss
Second-row (4): O'Connell, Toner, Tuohy, Henderson
Back-row (5): O'Brien, O'Mahony, Heaslip, Murphy, Henry
Scrum-half (3): Murray, Reddan, Boss
Out-half (3): Sexton, Madigan, Jackson
Backs (8): Bowe, Fitzgerald, Payne, Henshaw, Kearney, Earls, Jones, Zebo

Only spots up for debate are Bent or Furlong and Kilcoyne, Tuohy/Ryan/McCarthy, Murphy/Ruddock, Boss/Marmion, and 2/3 of Earls/Zebo/Jones/Gilroy/McFadden/Trimble. That to me says that there are 24 players already on the plane, with a few other highly likely players like Tuohy and Boss.

CatFromHue

total former wrote: »

Out-half (3): Sexton, Madigan, Jackson
Backs (7): Bowe, Fitzgerald, Payne, Henshaw, Kearney, Earls, Jones

Problem here is that there's no specialist 12, so I think D'arcy will travel instead of Madigan.

The schedule of games is

Canada
Romania
Italy
France

I can't see Henshaw playing all of those games and I don't see the point of putting Madigan or Fitzgerald in there either as neither are realistic starters at 12 for the Italy or France games.

CatFromHue

CatFromHue wrote: »

Problem here is that there's no specialist 12, so I think D'arcy will travel instead of Madigan.

The schedule of games is

Canada
Romania
Italy
France

I can't see Henshaw playing all of those games and I don't see the point of putting Madigan or Fitzgerald in there either as neither are realistic starters at 12 for the Italy or France games.

D'Arcy isn't a realistic starter for the Italy or France game either. The point of putting Madigan there could be simply just not putting Henshaw there.

kuang1

Zzippy wrote: »

Reddan/Boss... ugh. Pray for Murray's knee injury to heal quickly...

I actually have the exact same injury he has (medial collateral ligament strain) and it's about a 4-6 week turnaround if you're in reasonable fitness at the time of injury.
I'm 3 weeks in and almost back to full training (too old for playing rugby...just gym stuff for me!)
So I definitely don't fear for Murray!

kuang1

I expect Joe to go with Trimble eventually to fill up the backs. Player of the year last year...but most importantly remember how it was reported last year that Joe basically made Trimble into his special project? I remember ROG talking about how Joe had taken Trimble aside at training and spoken to him at length one-to-one. Joe has a (justified) soft spot for the guy.
Trimble'll be in. Earls will not.

.ak

Trimble suits modern back three rugby better than any of our backs now. If he shows any of the 2014 form he'll be on the plane.

sydthebeat

.ak wrote: »

Trimble suits modern back three rugby better than any of our backs now. If he shows any of the 2014 form he'll be on the plane.

Is he back to full training in Ulster?

bilston

sydthebeat wrote: »

Is he back to full training in Ulster?

Well the thing is there wouldn't be any full training taking place at Ulster at the moment. I wonder if there would be any consideration in getting him a month's contract with a SA side or something in the Currie Cup. I admit that is very unlikely but he does need games.

irishbucsfan

I think it would be absolute madness not to bring Keith Earls. One of the best backs available to us and covers multiple positions. I'd be very surprised if he's not in the squad.

.ak

bilston wrote: »

Well the thing is there wouldn't be any full training taking place at Ulster at the moment. I wonder if there would be any consideration in getting him a month's contract with a SA side or something in the Currie Cup. I admit that is very unlikely but he does need games.

The national training camp will start soon enough, no need.

Ok my guess at the squad:

Props (5) - Healy, McGrath, Moore, Ross, Cronin
Hookers (3) - Best, Cronin, Strauss
Locks (4) - POC, Toner, Ryan, Henderson
Backrow (5) - Heaslip, POM, SOB, Murphy, Henry
Scrumhalf (3) - Murray, Reddan, Boss
Outhalf (3) - Sexton, Jackson, Madigan
Centre (2) - Henshaw, Payne
Back three (6) - Kearney, Bowe, Fitz, Trimble, Jones, Earls

That's 31 in total. I think Zebo could miss out (though I almost hope he goes just to avoid the howls of faux-outrage), I think Trimble will make it as long as he shows any form in the warmups, I think Murphy will definitely make it after his excellent season, Madigan on the plane as a utility back who can kick, would love Marmion or McGrath or both to go instead of Reddan and/or Boss but won't happen, the 5th prop is interesting and I've just gone with who I'd bring in Cronin because I think he's a really good player, though not sure of his injury status.

padser

Cataleya Uptight Meatloaf wrote: »

Ok my guess at the squad:

Props (5) - Healy, McGrath, Moore, Ross, Cronin
Hookers (3) - Best, Cronin, Strauss
Locks (4) - POC, Toner, Ryan, Henderson
Backrow (5) - Heaslip, POM, SOB, Murphy, Henry
Scrumhalf (3) - Murray, Reddan, Boss
Outhalf (3) - Sexton, Jackson, Madigan
Centre (2) - Henshaw, Payne
Back three (6) - Kearney, Bowe, Fitz, Trimble, Jones, Earls

Agree with most of that (including the mix of positions). 2 changes.

Bent for Cronin - versatility
Ruddock for Murphy - provided he is fully recovered, has always been ahead of Murphy

I think Madigan is covering 12 and Earls 13.

If Zebo goes, I think it will be in place of Fitz as Joe has never shown an inclination to consider Fitz at 13 and we need cover at 13

bilston

.ak wrote: »

The national training camp will start soon enough, no need.

Yeah but I'm just thinking from a gametime POV. He will really have to impress in whatever opportunities he is afforded in August.

Thinking about it I don't think he is fully fit yet anyway because if he was he would probably be on the Emerging Ireland tour.

padser

bilston wrote: »

Yeah but I'm just thinking from a gametime POV. He will really have to impress in whatever opportunities he is afforded in August.

Thinking about it I don't think he is fully fit yet anyway because if he was he would probably be on the Emerging Ireland tour.

Agree he would be on emerging Ireland if he was for so must not be.

It really just depends on whether he comes back in the same form before he got injured, if he does, I think he will travel as he is perfect for the way we play,

Joe showed with SOB that he will throw players back in once they are recovered, with a long training camp and 4 warm up games (plus two them against lower tier opposition) there is plenty of time to get Trimble up to speed with game time provided he is fully fit

total former

padser wrote: »

Joe showed with SOB that he will throw players back in once they are recovered, with a long training camp and 4 warm up games (plus two them against lower tier opposition) there is plenty of time to get Trimble up to speed with game time provided he is fully fit

In fairness, the rules that apply to SOB do not apply to Trimble; I would pick him but I would also not be surprised to see him miss out.

Crimsonforce

If Trimble shows anything of his ability in the warm up games and he is fully recovered, I would have him in the squad.

thebaz

is Henry re-habilated and ready for a World Cup ?

Before his illness 100 % , but is he ready now ?

padser

total former wrote: »

In fairness, the rules that apply to SOB do not apply to Trimble; I would pick him but I would also not be surprised to see him miss out.

Fair point.

thebaz

thebaz wrote: »

is Henry re-habilated and ready for a World Cup ?

Before his illness 100 % , but is he ready now ?

Yes. Have you watched him since he came back? He's doing great.

aimee1

thebaz wrote: »

is Henry re-habilated and ready for a World Cup ?

Before his illness 100 % , but is he ready now ?

Yes he has been excellent the last few weeks of the season.

thebaz

Cataleya Uptight Meatloaf wrote: »

Yes. Have you watched him since he came back? He's doing great.

nope haven't seen him since his return - thats great news - didn't think he would ever be back to his best - just recovering alone was a great achievement

jm08

padser wrote: »

Agree with most of that (including the mix of positions). 2 changes.

Bent for Cronin - versatility
Ruddock for Murphy - provided he is fully recovered, has always been ahead of Murphy

I think Madigan is covering 12 and Earls 13.

If Zebo goes, I think it will be in place of Fitz as Joe has never shown an inclination to consider Fitz at 13 and we need cover at 13

Your right about it being Zebo v Fitz. But its because they are both left footed players. Joe doesn't like putting right footed players on the left side if he can avoid it. So on the other wing its Bowe v Trimble.

Earls can cover centre and right wing. I think it will be Zebo - I can't see Joe trusting Fitz to stay fit (not after what he said to Earls about him being afraid he would break down in the 6Ns and he needed to prove his durability).

aimee1

jm08 wrote: »

Your right about it being Zebo v Fitz. But its because they are both left footed players. Joe doesn't like putting right footed players on the left side if he can avoid it. So on the other wing its Bowe v Trimble.

Earls can cover centre and right wing. I think it will be Zebo - I can't see Joe trusting Fitz to stay fit (not after what he said to Earls about him being afraid he would break down in the 6Ns and he needed to prove his durability).

Earls only returned to action a month before the 6n began. Fitz came back for leinster in mid October (iirc) and played a lot of 80 minutes week on week.

irishbucsfan

jm08 wrote: »

Your right about it being Zebo v Fitz. But its because they are both left footed players. Joe doesn't like putting right footed players on the left side if he can avoid it. So on the other wing its Bowe v Trimble.

Earls can cover centre and right wing. I think it will be Zebo - I can't see Joe trusting Fitz to stay fit (not after what he said to Earls about him being afraid he would break down in the 6Ns and he needed to prove his durability).

Andrew Trimble was our player of the year starting on the left wing in 2014.

Buer

I think it's completely up in the air with Earls probably being slight favourite to take the last spot in the backs owing to him being fit, being involved in the 6N squads and also offering a realistic option in the centre.

Trimble had a great 6N in 2014 but wasn't even in the squad for the autumn tests in 2013. I would say he's closer to Dave Kearney in how he's viewed by Schmidt (someone that did a good job but fell down the pecking order significantly when injury took him out of the picture) than anyone who's a regular in our team.

Bowe, Kearney, Fitzgerald, Jones and Earls will be our back three options, I believe, with a decent chance that Earls may start a game at 13.

I do think there's a real chance that D'Arcy or Cave might travel, though, when I think about it. We'll need someone to start at 12 for at least one other game. I don't think that's going to be Madigan.

aimee1

Buer wrote: »

I do think there's a real chance that D'Arcy or Cave might travel, though, when I think about it. We'll need someone to start at 12 for at least one other game. I don't think that's going to be Madigan.

Fitz? Wouldnt rule mcfadden out of the running either.

Henry Ford III

padser wrote: »

Agree with most of that (including the mix of positions). 2 changes.

Bent for Cronin - versatility
Ruddock for Murphy - provided he is fully recovered, has always been ahead of Murphy

I think Madigan is covering 12 and Earls 13.

If Zebo goes, I think it will be in place of Fitz as Joe has never shown an inclination to consider Fitz at 13 and we need cover at 13

Bent? Seriously?

total former

Henry Ford III wrote: »

Bent? Seriously?

Rock solid on both sides of the scrum all season. He's definitely in the mix.

molloyjh

total former wrote: »

Rock solid on both sides of the scrum all season. He's definitely in the mix.

And rightfully so. People can't seem to get past their initial impressions of the guy but he's been a real unsung hero at Leinster this season. Hes not a big destructive ball carrier like Healy but as you said he's solid in both the loose or tight head positions. He'd be fine to bench for a couple of games if needed which would allow us bring an extra player somewhere else.

tipparetops

healy,kilcoyne,Mcgrath,
Best, Cronin, Strauss
Furlong,Moore,Ross
OConnell, toner, Tuohy
OmAhoney, Henderson, OBrien, Henry, Heasplip, Ruddock,
Murray, Reddan, Boss,
Sexton, Jackson,
fitzgerald, bowe, Payne, Henshaw, Kearney, Madigan, trimble, Jones.

My guess is 6 props and 18 forwards.

thomond2006

tipparetops wrote: »

healy,kilcoyne,Mcgrath,
Best, Cronin, Strauss
Furlong,Moore,Ross
OConnell, toner, Tuohy
OmAhoney, Henderson, OBrien, Henry, Heasplip, Ruddock,
Murray, Reddan, Boss,
Sexton, Jackson,
fitzgerald, bowe, Payne, Henshaw, Kearney, Madigan, trimble, Jones.

My guess is 6 props and 18 forwards.

jm08

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Andrew Trimble was our player of the year starting on the left wing in 2014.

He was on the right (Tommy Bowe was injured). Dave Kearney was on the left wing.

tipparetops

thomond2006 wrote: »

is that your prediction, he has to be 60.

irishbucsfan

jm08 wrote: »

He was on the right (Tommy Bowe was injured). Dave Kearney was on the left wing.

Good point!

I don't think Joe is as concerned about the footedness of his wingers as you do though. I'm sure it's a consideration and he's mentioned it in passing, but there are plenty of other things I think he'd be far more interested in, wingers are rarely involved in the kicking game so far under Joe, apart from in the kick chase. He's picked McFadden on the left wing for Ireland since taking over, so it's certainly not a deal breaker.

jm08

aimee1 wrote: »

Earls only returned to action a month before the 6n began. Fitz came back for leinster in mid October (iirc) and played a lot of 80 minutes week on week.

He was slow to use Luke as well because of his injury record. Earls joked in an interview that he goes up to Joe at the end of the week and says 'I'm still standing'.

irishbucsfan

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Good point!

I don't think Joe is as concerned about the footedness of his wingers as you do though. I'm sure it's a consideration and he's mentioned it in passing, but there are plenty of other things I think he'd be far more interested in, wingers are rarely involved in the kicking game so far under Joe, apart from in the kick chase. He's picked McFadden on the left wing for Ireland since taking over, so it's certainly not a deal breaker.

He's mentioned before that the reason Fitz (for example) didn't make the bench is that if he'd come on for Bowe then a back three of Zebo, Kearney and Bowe would all be left footed, which was something he wanted to avoid. I'm pretty sure Nacewa was right footed and he played on the left wing for Schmidt.

sydthebeat

It's better to have players on wings which are opposite to their dominant foot.

jacothelad

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Good point!

I don't think Joe is as concerned about the footedness of his wingers as you do though. I'm sure it's a consideration and he's mentioned it in passing, but there are plenty of other things I think he'd be far more interested in, wingers are rarely involved in the kicking game so far under Joe, apart from in the kick chase. He's picked McFadden on the left wing for Ireland since taking over, so it's certainly not a deal breaker.

And of course having a predominantly right footed player on the left wing is often a better situation than a left footed one. A right footed player has far more control kicking to the left touchline than a lefty. The corollory of course is that a left footed kicker is more likely to kick infield from the left side of the pitch given the natural bias of the kinesiology of kicking. Just as it is easier for right footed 'round the corner' kickers to score from the left side of the field and vice versa.

The answer of course is for players to be able to kick properly off both feet...:D