N5 - Ballaghaderreen to Scramoge [construction to commence shortly]

Pete_Cavan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121165886#Comment_121165886

Quoting myself from a few months ago because I said at the time that we needed clarity from the Tender Award Notice, that was published a few weeks ago;

https://irl.eu-supply.com/ctm/Supplier/PublicTenders/ViewNotice/281495

II.1.7)

Total value of the procurement

Value excluding VAT: 259823500.00 EUR

As I suspected, the contract value is well below the €450m quoted.

Reuben1210

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121496420#Comment_121496420

So where does this €450m figure come from?

Pete_Cavan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121496635#Comment_121496635

As I said before, it is likely the contract amount plus all design, planning, land acquisition, enabling works plus public realm and active travel works in areas bypassed by the new road. It's extremely hard to see how those other things could amount to almost €200m though. The only other thing I can think of is including for a big whack of contingency.

The €450m figure obviously includes for costs not yet known given the Dept for Transport referred to it as "estimated total scheme cost". They really shouldn't be talking estimated costs at this stage though as all pre-construction costs are already incurred and therefore known, while the main construction contract is a fixed price contract so in theory at least, the cost is also known. For some reason the Dept seems to be using a new methodology for scheme costs which, in this case at least, seems to push up the quoted cost beyond what is typical for such a project.

DumbBrunette

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121496420#Comment_121496420

So the actual contract price nearly doubled, from 135m in July 2021 to 260m in November 2023. That's a quite extraordinary level of inflation in 2.5 years!

prunudo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121496771#Comment_121496771

But Roadbridge went under so unlikely that it could have been built for that price. They lowballed it and got caught. Thankfully we didn't get a half finished road and burnt sub contractors.

Pete_Cavan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121496771#Comment_121496771

There are probably a number of factors at play here. It being tendered during a time of high inflation and cost uncertainty is the most obvious. As I said before, the Public Works Contracts have very limited scope for price changes which means in a multi-year project, tenderers have to assume the worst in terms of inflation over that time, otherwise they'd be left out of pocket. Then there was only one tender submitted for this project, and tenderer probably knew or had a good idea that this was likely to be the case so no incentive to price competitively.

marno21

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121497809#Comment_121497809

This is why TII are moving towards NEC contracts for the next big scheme (the M28). There was quite a lengthy discussion in front of the Oireachtas Transport Committee last year after Roadbridge went bust

veryangryman

Has construction started

Chris_5339762

Spongebob (banned here but active elsewhere, definitely had good contacts on the inside) said Q1 2024, so before the end of March!

Act Fast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121565714#Comment_121565714

Any significant site clearance will need to be completed by March 1st (unless special measures are taken) so I'd expect some crews on soon enough to clear the areas where the earthworks haul is programmed to start. The earthworks will start when the ground dries up enough so probably towards the end of March but Roscommon is an especially wet area so we'll see.

Act Fast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121497809#Comment_121497809

The €450 million price would have been estimated using reference class forecasting and represents a realistic likely overall cost of all aspects of the project (planning, land purchase, advance contracts, construction, residual network etc etc) plus an allowance for risk. Given that the overwhelming bulk of risk is associated with the construction phase of the project and given that phase has not yet (re)started the €260m cost is effectively just a starting point. All contracts have variation clauses etc that allow for costs to change, even ones that are nominally 'fixed price lump sum'.

Of course it also includes for whatever money was paid to Roadbridge before they tanked, so that needs to be kept in mind too.

irishgeo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569970#Comment_121569970

The ban on hedge cutting doesn’t usually apply to these projects as the get an exemption.

spacetweek

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121565991#Comment_121565991

Mad that construction contracts were signed on 8th December and still no visible work.

Cookiemunster

That was less than a month ago and we're just out of the Christmas/New Year holidays. There's nothing mad about it at all.

irishgeo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121571447#Comment_121571447

We have had a load of rain. You don't go digging up saturated ground it will just end up a sea of mud.

Pete_Cavan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121570005#Comment_121570005

Well for N5 Westport To Turlough, TII gave a cost of €250m at the time of opening last year. The Contract Award Notice stated the initial tender cost as €128,172,689.

For N22 Macroom to Baile Bhuirne, TII gave a cost of €280m recently. The Contract Award Notice stated the initial tender cost as €185,990,000.02.

Both of those projects would have had extra costs due to lockdowns and would have been hit by inflation.

For N5 Ballaghaderreen to Scramog, design and land acquisition were completed years ago, before recent inflation. Retendering and whatever was paid to Roadbridge (likely very little) are very small beer. Proportionally those costs should be lower as it is SC with few major structures so land take would be lower relative to the length of the project.

I just don't see where an extra almost €200m comes from on a comparative basis, unless there is €50m+ included for other works, the likes of which are not included in the other projects.

Toots

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121572161#Comment_121572161

I live near where part of that road is due to go and most of the fields round here are under water. I don't think they'd even be able to get equipment in to get the work started. Ground conditions round here are definitely "challenging" 😂

Act Fast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121570479#Comment_121570479

I don't think that's the case per se (it may have been in the past) but what they could do is hire in some ornithologists to locate the nests and work around them until the nestlings fledged.

Act Fast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121572344#Comment_121572344

There was an increased scope in tender 2 for scramoge I believe as well. Anyway, it is what it is.

roadmaster

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121572344#Comment_121572344

Was there not just 3 contractors that got passed the SAQ and only 1 submitted a tender?

mikewest

Just passed south of Frenchpark where the new section is going in and there are definitely groundworks of some sort happening. I saw them last week but thought it was forestry work and only realised today that it is inside the fenced boundry of the new road.

paulbok

Spotted something similar where the new road crosses the existing R368 between Strokestown and Elphin. Looked to be making a site entrance from what I could see.

Toots

Saw a few excavators moving around up near the Scramogue end where the new road will join the old N5, not sure if it’s related to the bypass but it certainly looks to be on the part where it will be going.

paulbok

There are a good few machines in on the road around strokestown with mulchers, clearing grass and any scrub that's grown since the fencing went up. Makes it easier for taking off the topsoil I guess.

Fozzie Bear

There are loads of machines on site at the depot in Mantua (between Ballinagare and Elphin) and along this section of road. Lot of work going on along here.

My cousin has got a job driving an excavator here, he was saying the contractor he is working for was having a lot of difficulty finding drivers. Loads of diggers, trucks etc but nobody to drive them at the moment.

paulbok

There are site entrance ahead signs up where the L1405 crosses the route, where the new roundabout for Strokestown is going. Some earth shifting there as well, possibly for a hard standing for site parking, or they have started to open up the site entrances more than is there now as not suitable for heavy site traffic.

There is a bit of a hill there on the existing L1405 that will need a lot of excavation, so I'd guess the new road section into Strokestown will need to be done early enough to divert the traffic on that road before the mainline gets going there.

Won't be sorry to see"Tanner's Turn" the junction at the top of Strokestown on the Elphin Rd, out to the L1405/ Kilmore removed. How there aren't regular crashes on that blind bend is a mystery.

paulbok

The earth shifting I spotted was the building of small berms (2-3ft high) to mark out either side of overhead cables.

DumbBrunette

https://n5b2s.ie/

The scheme website is live. I hope they do a better job of updating it than they did for Westport to Turlough!

irishgeo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121785688#Comment_121785688

They were not the main contractor for the Westport section.

Not a Bot

N5 Westport was a Wills Bam joint venture. So they were main contractor. Most scheme websites seem to be only tokenism. Live webcams on a structure or something would be a good addition, say on the likes of the narrow water bridge.