Munster vs Dragons, Sat 16 May 3pm; TG4

thomond2006

Munster:
Munster: Felix Jones; Keith Earls, Andrew Smith, Denis Hurley - capt., Ronan O'Mahony; Ian Keatley, Conor Murray;
John Ryan, Eusebio Guinazu, BJ Botha; Billy Holland, Paul O'Connell; Donnacha Ryan, Paddy Butler, CJ Stander.

Replacements: Niall Scannell, Dave Kilcoyne, Stephen Archer, Sean Dougall, Jack O'Donoghue, Duncan Williams, JJ Hanrahan, Andrew Conway.

Dragons:
Jason Tovey, Tom Prydie, Tyler Morgan, Jack Dixon, Hallam Amos, Dorian Jones, Jonathan Evans;
Boris Stankovich, Hugh Gustafson, Brok Harris, Cory Hill, Rynard Landman (c), Nick Crosswell, Nic Cudd, Taulupe Faletau.

Replacements: Rhys Buckley, Phil Price, Lloyd Fairbrother, Matthew Screech, James Benjamin, Richie Rees, Ashton Hewitt, Geraint Rhys Jones.

Munster v Newport-Gwent Dragons at Irish Independent Park
Connacht v Ospreys at the Sportsgound
Glasgow Warriors v Ulster at Scotstoun

Those who finish in the top 2 will secure home semi-final advantage.

If two or more teams finish with the same number of league points, their placings will be determined by the following criteria in descending order:

• number of matches won
• the difference between points for and points against
• the number of tries scored
• the most points scored
• the difference between tries for and tries against
• the fewest number of red cards received
• the fewest number of yellow cards received

Please note, due to such a tight race at the top of the table, there are a wide number of results and variables that could come into play this weekend. For example, Munster could win with a bonus point and not achieve a top 2 finish, while alternatively, a losing bonus point could be enough to obtain a home semi-final for Anthony Foley's men.

Where that in mind, here are just some of the hypothetical results for Munster and their possible permutations:

Bonus Point Win:
Would be enough to secure a top 2 finish, unless both Ospreys and Warriors also secure bonus point wins, in which case 'games won' would see Ospreys and Warriors secure a home semi-final each.

Win:
Only enough to secure a home semi-final if Ospreys or Warriors lose or draw. However, should Ulster achieve a bonus point win over Warriors, top 2 qualification would come down to points difference between the Irish provinces - currently Munster are 17 points ahead of Ulster on points difference.

Draw:
Would be enough for a top 2 finish if both Ospreys and Warriors lose. In this scenario, Ulster's defeat of Warriors would see them top the table with Munster taking second spot.

Losing Bonus Point:
Only enough if both Ospreys and Warriors lose and fail to achieve a losing bonus point, in which case Ulster would top the table with victory over Warriors, with Munster finishing second.

Loss:
Munster finish third at best and will play an away semi-final.

http://www.munsterrugby.ie/news/20594.php#.VVXJ9Mt0yHs

A try bonus point win will in all likelihood grant Munster a home semi-final. Ospreys and Glasgow will be favourites to win their matches but a TBP win for both is unlikely.

Cookiemunster

Loads of changes this week. No POM, TOD or Zebo.

MunXV v Dragons: Jones; Earls, Smith, Hurley (c), RO’Mahony; Keats, Murray; Ryan, Guinazu, BJ; Holland, PO’C; DRyan, Butler, CJ

Replacements: NScannell, Killer, Archer, Dougall, O’Donoghue, Williams, JJ, Conway.

thomond2006

TOD and Zebo were injury doubts so no surprise there.

Donnacha Ryan at 6, why? When the goal is a bonus point I'd prefer to have JOD starting who can and has scored tries at this level.

No Duncan Casey either. It's a weird team.

2smiggy

a bonus point win could be tough, the dragons are a decent team. Indeed strange to see D Ryan at 6

Mahatma Geansai

It looks like a few players are being rested for the semi-final. I'd imagine that a number of the bigger names would play if the semi-final was this week.

The most interesting selection is probably Ryan playing 6 ahead of Holland. I would have imagined that the other way around would make a little more sense.

Hopefully we can get the required 5 points. The Dragons aren't to be underestimated; they did the double over Leinster this season.

thomond2006

Mahatma Geansai wrote: »

It looks like a few players are being rested for the semi-final. I'd imagine that a number of the bigger names would play if the semi-final was this week.

The most interesting selection is probably Ryan playing 6 ahead of Holland. I would have imagined that the other way around would make a little more sense.

Hopefully we can get the required 5 points. The Dragons aren't to be underestimated; they did the double over Leinster this season.

So did we.

The Dragons have nothing to play for and I imagine the players in with a chance of making RWC will not be busting a gut. If we can score tries early I think they'll lose interest.

slingerz

TOD is out for 6-8 weeks with a torn hamstring

thomond2006

slingerz wrote: »

TOD is out for 6-8 weeks with a torn hamstring

****. That's a sickener. At least he'll be back to play in the RWC warmups.

CatFromHue

If conn can stop Ospreys getting a tbp or even beat them then if Munster get a TBP win, Munster will get a home SF.

shuffol

That's a very heavy pack and a big midfield too, might not be too pretty but Munster will be looking to steamroll the Dragons.

donfers

hmmm I can see a bonus point being a real struggle with that team - hell I'm not even totally confident on the win

slingerz

donfers wrote: »

hmmm I can see a bonus point being a real struggle with that team - hell I'm not even totally confident on the win

why so exactly, backline only missing Zebo from being the first choice.

Mahatma Geansai

slingerz wrote: »

why so exactly, backline only missing Zebo from being the first choice.

And the pack features 2, maybe 3, first choice players.

Akrasia

Its a pity tyler bleyendaal didn't get on the bench. I know it's a 'must win game' but it's not as must win as the rest of the games between now and the end of the season.

Even if we lose, we'll still get a place in the semi finals

I can't see him playing at all this year if he didn't get on the bench for tomorrow.

Cookiemunster

Mahatma Geansai wrote: »

And the pack features 2, maybe 3, first choice players.

Tell me how you would have changed a pack that basically picked itself?

Cronin is out with concussion. Kilcoyne is only on his way back from injury. Casey is injured. Foley is injured. POM and TOD are injured.

Other than Butler I can't see any questionable picks.

Cookiemunster

Akrasia wrote: »

Its a pity tyler bleyendaal didn't get on the bench. I know it's a 'must win game' but it's not as must win as the rest of the games between now and the end of the season.

Even if we lose, we'll still get a place in the semi finals

I can't see him playing at all this year if he didn't get on the bench for tomorrow.

A team that's hemorrhaging money, doesn't risk the possibility of a home semi final by not picking the strongest 23 available.

buck65

That team is more than strong enough to put 25 points on the Dragons with 4 tries, chillax biatches

thomond2006

buck65 wrote: »

That team is more than strong enough to put 25 points on the Dragons with 4 tries, chillax biatches

Agreed, there's enough firepower in the team.

Could POM's knock be the reason that JOD isn't starting?

Mahatma Geansai

Cookiemunster wrote: »

Tell me how you would have changed a pack that basically picked itself?

Cronin is out with concussion. Kilcoyne is only on his way back from injury. Casey is injured. Foley is injured. POM and TOD are injured.

Other than Butler I can't see any questionable picks.

Did I question any of the selections?

I replied to a poster who stated that we should do well because we have pretty much all of our front-line backs available, but ignored that we are missing most of our first-choice pack.

Cookiemunster

Mahatma Geansai wrote: »

Did I question any of the selections?

I replied to a poster who stated that we should do well because we have pretty much all of our front-line backs available, but ignored that we are missing most of our first-choice pack.

Ah right. Got my wires crossed.

slingerz

Mahatma Geansai wrote: »

And the pack features 2, maybe 3, first choice players.

Holland was shortlisted for player of the year along with CJ. POC is POC, CJ has been our player of the year. Donnacha Ryan has been missing with injury but his quality is unquestioned. BJ is our first choice tighthead.#

We'd love to have TOD, POM available but they are injured. The guys there are more than capable

thomond2006

Weather looking promising, here's to five points!

Fireball07

Need a BP here. Back row looks understrength, would have liked JOD to start tbh.


Hope we do enough.

thomond2006

Very poor penalty to give away.

thomond2006

Great try Andrew Smith! All came from a box kick block from POC.

BOX KICKS ARE THE DEVIL

Wang King

Poor try for Dragons to give away!

thomond2006

Wait...what?!!

Wang King

Christ, I see a 35-32 score here,

thomond2006

The goal has to remain the same. I hope we stay ambitious and don't give up good opportunities for tries.

thomond2006

Glasgow and Ospreys 3-0 up

Edit: ha TG4 are showing them so spoilers are useless here!

thomond2006

Good break from Earls, shame pass was to nobody. If Munster keep making breaks the tries will come.

thomond2006

Good to see them go for the corner, regardless of the outcome.

thomond2006

YES! CJ gets his 1000th try of the season.

thomond2006

Subtle, that was not.

razorblunt

Trying to find this game on Sky, extra channels, BBC Wales are showing Treviso - Scarlets FFS!

thomond2006

#3 for Murray. Munster being rewarded for going for the tries from the start.

thomond2006

Job done! Now 55 minutes to see it out and I'd expect to see the bench used very early.

Fireball07

Nice stuff.

thomond2006

I'm amazed that's not a card. That was a couple of penalties on our line.

Micky Dolenz

Keep the updates coming please. The curse of Tg4, hard to get in foreign bars.

thomond2006

Another penalty to Dragons and no card.

Tin Foil Hat

3 tries for Ospreys. Looks like Warriors in Thomond next week.

awec

Ulster have a try in Scotland, it's 3-7 to Ulster.

leakyboots

Murray is unplayable

Wang King

Tin Foil Hat wrote: »

3 tries for Ospreys. Looks like Warriors in Thomond next week.

4 now, they've really let themselves down the last few weeks I think

thomond2006

Even POC is getting in on the try action!

peckerhead

Gwan Paulie.

case885

Legend POC

thomond2006

Munster vs Glasgow and Ospreys vs Ulster is looking very likely.

Wang King

thomond2006 wrote: »

Munster vs Glasgow and Ospreys vs Ulster is looking very likely.

I'd take that

Roanmore

What is the criteria if points are the same?