Thursday 14th May

DyldeBrill

York

2.40- Ribbons

3.15- Jack Hobbs

Fontwell

5.40- Fiddlesticks

TheFense

Bragging 2:40 York

One for me today so far. I was on bragging on the 5th and was impressed with the win. She was said to have needed the outing and should come on from that. It's an extra furlong today, which shouldnt pose a problem for her to stay strong, biggest threat in my eye lies with ribbons. I'm banking on her race fitness and confidence of the win over ribbons who it has to be said has an excellent form line with 6 wins from 9 starts last season. Odds are muck so likely won't suit many, it is a healthy enough gamble.

Any thoughts on bragging or any of your own selections for the day?

Jon Stark

I think Ribbons might need the run.

madmoose

Took the 7/1 for belle dor yesterday, was nearly 2L behind bragging the last day which she will have to make up but didnt get the perfect passage that day so giving her another chance here. Frankie never wins for me though!!

Mostly Harmless

Few for me today and I am all over Golden Horn in the Dante, will try and post some reasoning in a while:

YORK
2.10 - Red Baron 1pt Win (14/1 Boyles)

3.15 - Golden Horn 3pts Win (11/2 Boyles)

3.45 - Capo Rosso 1.25pts Win (12/1 Ladbrokes) | Alfred Hutchinson 0.75pts Win (20/1 Ladbrokes)

NEWMARKET
8.30 - Beat Goes On 1.5pt Win (8/1 Hills)

The Mig

Out Do 2:10

Pulled from 2:40 6f handicap yesterday in favour of this today. 9/1

Francie Barrett

I see Gordon Elliot is doing his best to make sure that Richard Johnson's aim at being champion jockey gets off to a good start at Perth.

magicmoves

John F Kennedy 3:15 York

Backstreet Moyes

On what JFK has done if he was with anyone else he would be triple his price.

See the sun in the 2.10 he travelled well before fading on his first run of the season he should come on alot for that.

Johner

Would love to see a new superstar in Jack Hobbs. Cracking contest though!

Earendil

Took 7/1 this morning on Oscar Sam in the 6.05 in Tipperary.

tryfix

I can see JFK under a Ryan Moore drive decking Jack Hobbs just like his sister Tapestry did to Gosden's great filly Taghrooda.

I'll be backing Ol' Man River myself on account of I have always had faith in the horse and would be sickened if he won and I hadn't a bet on him. It's significant that he was sent as a fancied horse to the 2,000 Guineas O'Briens top Derby trial in recent years. The big worry is that Moore is hardly likely to be put up on the wrong one today.

Jon Stark

tryfix wrote: »

I can see JFK under a Ryan Moore drive decking Jack Hobbs just like his sister Tapestry did to Gosden's great filly Taghrooda.

I'll be backing Ol' Man River myself on account of I have always had faith in the horse and would be sickened if he won and I hadn't a bet on him. It's significant that he was sent as a fancied horse to the 2,000 Guineas O'Briens top Derby trial in recent years. The big worry is that Moore is hardly likely to be out up on the wrong one today.

Wouldn't be like an O'Brien 2nd string to do a smash and grab. :pac:

tryfix

Jon Stark wrote: »

Wouldn't be like an O'Brien 2nd string to do a smash and grab. :pac:

Wouldn't Aidan just love that, you can see that he's seriously peed off with Junior's demotion..:)

Gringo180

tryfix wrote: »

I can see JFK under a Ryan Moore drive decking Jack Hobbs just like his sister Tapestry did to Gosden's great filly Taghrooda.

I'll be backing Ol' Man River myself on account of I have always had faith in the horse and would be sickened if he won and I hadn't a bet on him. It's significant that he was sent as a fancied horse to the 2,000 Guineas O'Briens top Derby trial in recent years. The big worry is that Moore is hardly likely to be put up on the wrong one today.

I will be on Ol' Man River as well. Backed him in the Guineas where I thought he travelled nicely up to half way and then he seemed to blow up, that run was too bad to be true and JOB stopped riding him out immediately which gives me the impression that they think a lot of this horse.

Will double him up for the Derby too as he is 16/1 and if he does go in today he will go into favourite for Epsom. Dante and Derby double pays around 160/1 in Boyles.

Lt J.R. Bell

Jon Stark wrote: »

Wouldn't be like an O'Brien 2nd string to do a smash and grab. :pac:

Ya, but, in the past few years, that second string was rode by Ryan Moore or Colm Donahoe or even Heffernan. It's back in the days if Murtagh when Joey did it.

Would admit, would love to see Joey get a big race or two. Say whatever you like about him, but it's no fun riding horses that flop in small races and the punters are on,odds even, simply because of the colour of the silks

Old Man River didn't travel the last day, wonder what happened.Joseph did well to cut his loss there and bring him home safely

diomed

This is an intriguing Dante. It is not often two Aidan O'Brien is represented by runners (O' Man River, John F Kennedy) who finished last in their previous outings.

Elm Park has a nice string of wins, but no runs this year. And his 15 year old sire Phoenix Reach, nine years at stud, does not have any other group winners, only two other runners rated over 100, Whiplash Willie and Rawaki.
Jack Hobbs ran brilliantly in his last race, winning by a wide margin in a good time. But his sire, Halling, has only produced four Group 1 winners (two in Italy) incl Cavalryman (G P de Paris, 3yo, 2400m) and Cutlass Bay (Prix Ganay, 4yo, 2100m). Halling has loads of Group 3 winners, few at higher.
Nafaqa is by useful sire Sir Percy, who has plenty of 100+ horses, but as far as I can see only one Group winner, Alla Speranza, in the Gr 3 Kiltiernan Stakes (my records are not updated for 2015). And Nafaqa's damsire, Mujahid was no star as a runner or sire, not winning beyond two years.
Golden Horn has won two from two, but imo has to improve.
I think O' Man River is value at 12s. You have to think he was never a Guineas horse, and when not in the firing line they treated the Guineas as an exercise gallop.

uxiant

diomed wrote: »

This is an intriguing Dante. It is not often two Aidan O'Brien is represented by runners (O' Man River, John F Kennedy) who finished last in their previous outings.

Elm Park has a nice string of wins, but no runs this year. And his 15 year old sire Phoenix Reach, nine years at stud, does not have any other group winners, only two other runners rated over 100, Whiplash Willie and Rawaki.
Jack Hobbs ran brilliantly in his last race, winning by a wide margin in a good time. But his sire, Halling, has only produced four Group 1 winners (two in Italy) incl Cavalryman (G P de Paris, 3yo, 2400m) and Cutlass Bay (Prix Ganay, 4yo, 2100m). Halling has loads of Group 3 winners, few at higher.
Nafaqa is by useful sire Sir Percy, who has plenty of 100+ horses, but as far as I can see only one Group winner, Alla Speranza, in the Gr 3 Kiltiernan Stakes (my records are not updated for 2015). And Nafaqa's damsire, Mujahid was no star as a runner or sire, not winning beyond two years.
Golden Horn has won two from two, but imo has to improve.
I think O' Man River is value at 12s. You have to think he was never a Guineas horse, and when not in the firing line they treated the Guineas as an exercise gallop.

Agree on the others but I thought Ol Man River was a Guineas horse. They've always talked him up as a very quick Montjeu and with Joseph getting down to 9-0 as well as all the money around I thought he might emulate his dam and win the Guineas. I reckon he was race fit unlike JFK and he just looked out of his depth to me.

JFK never got down and galloped so he clearly hated that ground at Leopardstown. He's from a family that want it quick as well and has always been talked up as the Coolmore derby horse. Although Elm Park brings top juvenile form and the Gosden pair have been big improvers JFK looks the class horse and he's the one for me.

Mostly Harmless

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

Few for me today and I am all over Golden Horn in the Dante, will try and post some reasoning in a while:

YORK
2.10 - Red Baron 1pt Win (14/1 Boyles)

3.15 - Golden Horn 3pts Win (11/2 Boyles)

3.45 - Capo Rosso 1.25pts Win (12/1 Ladbrokes) | Alfred Hutchinson 0.75pts Win (20/1 Ladbrokes)

NEWMARKET
8.30 - Beat Goes On 1.5pt Win (8/1 Hills)

Red Baron could be a sprint handicapper going places this season now that he looks to be beginning to get his act together. I think he only showed flashes of his true ability last season and being gelded looks to have been the making of him. The trainer generally does well with these types and he is a perfectly fair price in a competitive event.

A lot of the talk has been about Jack Hobbs in the Dante and he was impressive with a facile success in a handicap last time out. This race is a completely different test though and while he is open to any amount of improvement I cannot even consider backing him at the current prices. I think Gosden has a better chance with his other runner Golden Horn, who made a very good impression when winning the Fielden Stakes lto. He was held up at the back of the field there and made smooth progress before looking a bit green when hitting the front. Improvement looks guaranteed after that experience and for the step up in trip as his pedigree suggests that he should be an out and out 10f horse (hence the French Derby entry and lack of Epsom Derby or Arc entry). I think he has far less questions to answer than any of his opposition today, with AOB's pair both disappointing lto and Elm Park probably wanting softer ground.

Capo Rosso looked to be coming back to form lto and can go close if continuing in the right direction, he's not one to set your watch by and is possibly slightly better on artificial surfaces but he has the ability to take a race of this nature on a going day. Albert Hutchinson is unquestionably better on the AW, but a lot of his best efforts on turf have come round the Knavesmire (such as when an unlucky in running 5th in this race last year - off a 2lbs lower mark), the form of his last run looks to be working out okay and 20/1 must be a bit too big.

The form of the race Beat Goes On won on the AW has been working out quite well and I thought he looked too big a price tonight on that basis. He has been very weak in the market since I backed him this morning though and that is not encouraging at all.

kalinisi

like a few others here i fancy ol man river to outrun his odds and have just dutched him with JFK, i was mad about both of these as 2 year olds and the good ground will see JFK in a better light, very interesting race anyway to watch

Also back Odeltz e/w in the fllies race at 12's

DyldeBrill

Got word for lycidas in the 5.20 at York

Gringo180

uxiant wrote: »

Agree on the others but I thought Ol Man River was a Guineas horse. They've always talked him up as a very quick Montjeu and with Joseph getting down to 9-0 as well as all the money around I thought he might emulate his dam and win the Guineas. I reckon he was race fit unlike JFK and he just looked out of his depth to me.

They thought the same about Tapestry last year and how wrong they were. Ol Man River's run in the Guineas was too bad to be true. He easily beat 2 very classy animals over a mile on his last start over a mile last season. He looks a middle distance animal to me.

Peintre Celebre

Nuts102 wrote: »

On what JFK has done if he was with anyone else he would be triple his price.

See the sun in the 2.10 he travelled well before fading on his first run of the season he should come on alot for that.

Your point about JFK could be valid if a handicap winner wasn't outright fav for the derby

The Mig

The Mig wrote: »

Out Do 2:10

Pulled from 2:40 6f handicap yesterday in favour of this today. 9/1

krustydoyle

That was a great ride by Atzeni on Secret Gesture

Pinesky

Gringo ,you wont get paid 160/1 for the double as you are looking at 2 dependent events i.e. the price for the derby would be dependent on the result of the dante .
agree a price for the double with Boyles to avoid possible .later disappointment

Fitz*

Come on JFK

Mostly Harmless

BOOM

Francie Barrett

What was JOB at? Does he think he is Jamie Spencer or something?

Johner

Awful from O Brien's.

Jon Stark

Francie Barrett wrote: »

What was JOB at? Does he think he is Jamie Spencer or something?

What happened?

Itziger

Francie Barrett wrote: »

What was JOB at? Does he think he is Jamie Spencer or something?

He was on one of the weaker horses in the race. Full Stop.

What difference do you think racing nearer the pace would have made?

Right now O'Brien seems to have one top 3 y.o.

Lt J.R. Bell

Francie Barrett wrote: »

What was JOB at? Does he think he is Jamie Spencer or something?

Was it really just JOB's ineptitude? Horse did not look one bit interested until the end, and even then it gave up.

Of all the courses in the land, you do not do hold up tactics at York.

JFK wasn't much good either.


Must say, with a the raving about Old Man River's and JFK (we were warned about him last day, even if it was mud) just comes to show how poor the competition is in Ireland, without AOB. Weld has no contenders, and Bolger's, bha, only each way shots. (In English races that is). May need to take form at Leopardstown maidens with a pinch of salt (though, should do that with maidens everywhere)


Gosden is some trainer, though

FIVE2_THREE

As a hugh Coolmore fan I'm not upset with this display. Aidan has carried the Darby for the past 3 years. you can't win every year and now this forces the lazy punters to put in some real work to find a winner instead of hopping on the bandwagon.

sdoc13

Itziger wrote: »

He was on one of the weaker horses in the race. Full Stop.

What difference do you think racing nearer the pace would have made?

Right now O'Brien seems to have one top 3 y.o.

Gleneagles?

Harry Angstrom

They'll be mad not to go for The Derby with the Dante winner. It'll only cost Oppenheimer a diamond or two to supplement him.

Gringo180

Elm Park wouldnt get a mile and a half in a horse box.

chinguetti

Bad crop of 3 year olds as there's no real solid form & its a wide open Derby. Coolmore have what looks like a poor group from the trials. They might be tempted to throw Gleneagles into the mix.

Francie Barrett

Itziger wrote: »

He was on one of the weaker horses in the race. Full Stop.

What difference do you think racing nearer the pace would have made?

Right now O'Brien seems to have one top 3 y.o.

Like someone said, York is just one of the worst tracks to hold up a horse and with the conditions being difficult, the tactics were just suicidal. I'm not saying Ol Man River would have won, but it's an absolute joke that a horse like that should finish behind the likes of Lord Ben Stack.

I have not historically had a problem with JOB, he's been a decent rider. So far this season, he's been awful. He even got beat on Bantry Bay by his stablemate who wasn't even trying just on Sunday at Leoardstown ffs.

Itziger

sdoc13 wrote: »

Gleneagles?

Yeah. I didn't say middle-distance if that's what you were wondering about.

Did NOT look a 12 furlong horse in the 2,000G, but stranger things have happened alright.

Gosden seems to have another couple of nice horses.

Mostly Harmless

DOUBLE BOOM

Johner

Fair play Mostly_Harmless, top stuff!

Mostly Harmless

Cheers. Pints tonight so!

tramoreman77

well done mostly harmless

sdoc13

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

Few for me today and I am all over Golden Horn in the Dante, will try and post some reasoning in a while:

YORK
2.10 - Red Baron 1pt Win (14/1 Boyles)

3.15 - Golden Horn 3pts Win (11/2 Boyles)

3.45 - Capo Rosso 1.25pts Win (12/1 Ladbrokes) | Alfred Hutchinson 0.75pts Win (20/1 Ladbrokes)

NEWMARKET
8.30 - Beat Goes On 1.5pt Win (8/1 Hills)

Well Played sir. 2 wins and a place from 4 secelctions some going

magicmoves

We must back the Beat Goes on ))

sdoc13

Put him up before but I backed Embankement(1pt) in the 17 00. at 20s. RFC with foxtrot Jubilee for fun as both in my tracker.

ISOP

Ballydoyle in crisis

Mostly Harmless

My best day for quite a while

Thought Golden Horn looked every inch the class act I believed him to be, although I wouldn't be mad about his chances if they supplement him for the Derby. Think his optimum trip is 10f and could be a prisoner to fortune being held up round Epsom.

Red Baron also put up a massive run after doing most of the hard work up front with the first two finishing a good bit clear of the rest - he looks to be on the upgrade in a big way. He'll get put up a few lbs for this performance but could be very interesting in some of the big sprint handicaps later in the season (possibly Ayr where he was placed at 50/1 in a big field last season), all ground looks to come alike to him and he should be well placed by Eric Alston.

Glad I was Alfred Hutchinson today because I don't think he'll be winning on turf for a while now, he needs everything to fall right and will probably find the rise in the handicap beyond him. Capo Rosso was poor but he did set the race up nicely for Alfred so fair play to him!

As for Beat Goes On, there is some 20/1 available now and you'd have to be very concerned about his chances on that basis alone.

sdoc13

DyldeBrill wrote: »

Got word for lycidas in the 5.20 at York

Great Stuff. had a few quid on Hugh taylor put him up as well.

poeticmakaveli

Francie Barrett wrote:

I have not historically had a problem with JOB, he's been a decent rider. So far this season, he's been awful. He even got beat on Bantry Bay by his stablemate who wasn't even trying just on Sunday at Leoardstown ffs.

I know. I backed bantry bay, I didn't even think the winner wanted to go by bantry bay at one stage but he had too lol