Aer Lingus April Results and possible impact of cuddly Ryanair

LiamaDelta

Looks like EI are coming under serious pressure on short haul. Presumably from FR?

April - drop of 5.5% short haul & -10.7% on EI Regional

On top of Jan-Mar results showing -3.4% on SH and -7% regional

Cookiemunster

Is that compared to last year? Easter was in April last year.

LXFlyer

You'd need to look at the year to date figures to get an accurate picture because the monthly figures for March and April will be skewed.

The first weekend of the Easter school holidays was in March this year, while last year it was in April.

YTD passenger figures are:
Total - down 54,000 (down 2%)
Short Haul - down 98,000 (down 4.1%)
Long Haul - up 44,000 (up 15.1%)

EI Regional - down 30,000 (down 8.2%)

Load factor YTD results are:
Total - 74.5% - up 2.7%
Short Haul - 72.8% - up 2.3%
Long Haul - 76.8% - up 2.9%

That would tell you that EI cut capacity back during the first four months compared with 2014 on short haul, operating fewer flights, and as a result overall numbers carried would have fallen. Load factor increasing is a good sign.

As ever one should always look at all the figures rather than just one set - examining them all tells you a different picture.

FridaysWell

lxflyer wrote: »

You'd need to look at the year to date figures to get an accurate picture because the monthly figures for March and April will be skewed.

The first weekend of the Easter school holidays was in March this year, while last year it was in April.

Year to Date figures for EI out of Dublin are -1.9% down on last year (2.12m Pax YTD 2015 vs. 2.16m Pax same period in 2014). Their average load factor has increased 2 points from 71% to 73%.

FR's year to date figures out of Dublin are up 30% vs. last year (3.09m Pax YTD in 2015 vs. 2.37m Pax in the same period in 2014). Their average load factor has increased from 74% to 83%.

The above makes interesting reading. Ryanair's growth out of Dublin is meteoric.

The above figures are just for Dublin though.

FridaysWell

lxflyer wrote: »

YTD passenger figures are:
Total - down 54,000 (down 2%)
Short Haul - down 98,000 (down 4.1%)
Long Haul - up 44,000 (up 15.1%)

EI Regional - down 30,000 (down 8.2%)

Load factor YTD results are:
Total - 74.5% - up 2.7%
Short Haul - 72.8% - up 2.3%
Long Haul - 76.8% - up 2.9%



As ever one should always look at all the figures rather than just one set - examining them all tells you a different picture.

Are these combined DUB/ORK/SNN etc?

LXFlyer

FridaysWell wrote: »

Are these combined DUB/ORK/SNN etc?

They are the overall figures from their corporate website.

FridaysWell

lxflyer wrote: »

They are the overall figures from their corporate website.

EI look to be rationalising their capacity and making small gains in their load factor. Be interesting to see how they perform in the 2nd quarter.

Ryanair's growth is capacity led, but with a substantial gain in load factors. FR's movements at DUB went from ca. 17,000 to just under 20,000.

It's a shame that FR don't get the coverage they deserve on this forum and in the media.

LXFlyer

FridaysWell wrote: »

EI look to be rationalising their capacity and making small gains in their load factor. Be interesting to see how they perform in the 2nd quarter.

Ryanair's growth is capacity led, but with a substantial gain in load factors. FR's movements at DUB went from ca. 17,000 to just under 20,000.

It's a shame that FR don't get the coverage they deserve on this forum and in the media.

I don't think anyone here belittles FR's performance at all. It's a very strong one and great to see.

The media however don't seem to be able to interpret anyone's figures correctly.

FridaysWell

lxflyer wrote: »

I don't think anyone here belittles FR's performance at all. It's a very strong one.


The media however don't seem to be able to interpret anyone's figures correctly.

True, but it just seems like it isn't discussed here as much vs. EI. The Irish media are usually out of their depth when discussing anything aviation related :pac::pac:

One big positive for EI (and Dublin Airport) is that their transfer passengers are up 15% year on year (125,445 YTD 2015 vs. 108,904 YTD 2014) - again this is Dublin only. Suppose this is driven by the increase in Transatlatic pax.

LiamaDelta

lxflyer wrote: »

As ever one should always look at all the figures rather than just one set - examining them all tells you a different picture.

Given that I posted the Jan-Mar and the April figures, I'm pretty sure that's year to date covered!!

Anyway, point being EI seem to be getting really hammered on short haul. Declining passenger numbers when an economy is growing and competitor is growing is really not a good sign.

I'm quite surprised at the drop off from EI Regional especially after such a good year last year. Anyone any idea why?

LXFlyer

LiamaDelta wrote: »

Given that I posted the Jan-Mar and the April figures, I'm pretty sure that's year to date covered!!

Anyway, point being EI seem to be getting really hammered on short haul. Declining passenger numbers when an economy is growing and competitor is growing is really not a good sign.

I'm quite surprised at the drop off from EI Regional especially after such a good year last year. Anyone any idea why?

Well I was just making the point that the monthly figures would be skewed by when Easter fell in the two years, and that is important when you try to interpret them. You failed to mention that load factor had increased on both short haul and long haul - that is a significant piece of information, which paints a somewhat different picture than your initial post did.

I wouldn't say they are getting "hammered" - that's a bit strong, considering that load factor has gone up.

They have obviously cut back capacity on short haul, but they are getting a better result from that drop.

It depends on what the overall strategy is - it sounds more like it was planned to cut capacity if I am reading those figures correctly.

LiamaDelta

lxflyer wrote: »

Well I was just making the point that the monthly figures would be skewed by when Easter fell in the two years, and that is important when you try to interpret them. You failed to mention that load factor had increased on both short haul and long haul - that is a significant piece of information, which paints a somewhat different picture than your initial post did.

I wouldn't say they are getting "hammered" - that's a bit strong, considering that load factor has gone up.

They have obviously cut back capacity on short haul, but they are getting a better result from that drop.

It depends on what the overall strategy is.

You're right I could have been a tad more specific.

I would disagree though - if you're in an environment where your biggest competitor manages to add over 700,000 customers (if the above quoted figs are correct) in a period where you manage to lose 100,000...you're getting hammered!! No matter what the overall strategy you really should be in a position to gain at least some of those passengers.

Summer results are going to be interesting. And this is with FR actually owning 30% of EI. Imagine how they'll turn the screw if the IAG deal goes through and they are real competitors to EI.

Jamie2k9

FridaysWell wrote: »

Year to Date figures for EI out of Dublin are -1.9% down on last year (2.12m Pax YTD 2015 vs. 2.16m Pax same period in 2014). Their average load factor has increased 2 points from 71% to 73%.

FR's year to date figures out of Dublin are up 30% vs. last year (3.09m Pax YTD in 2015 vs. 2.37m Pax in the same period in 2014). Their average load factor has increased from 74% to 83%.

The above makes interesting reading. Ryanair's growth out of Dublin is meteoric.

The above figures are just for Dublin though.

Not exactly a clear picture, FR added an additional 750,000-1,000000 seats last April so such growth was expected. You will see their growth will be significantly lower in the coming months.

Looks like EI are coming under serious pressure on short haul. Presumably from FR?

April - drop of 5.5% short haul & -10.7% on EI Regional

On top of Jan-Mar results showing -3.4% on SH and -7% region

Context....

SH passengers declined by 5.5% yet capacity was down by more than double that at 10.7%. Easter played a big role but they also took out loss making capacity from last year.

Van.Bosch

LiamaDelta wrote: »

I would disagree though - if you're in an environment where your biggest competitor manages to add over 700,000 customers (if the above quoted figs are correct) in a period where you manage to lose 100,000...you're getting hammered!! No matter what the overall strategy you really should be in a position to gain at least some of those passengers.

100% agree, you cant tell yields but in a market where your competitor is adding capacity and growing LF significantly and you are dropping capacity then it would indicate to me that in order to preserve yield capacity had to fall which shows they are feeling the pressure of the Ryanair new model.

Razor44

Just as an aside to these figures, do EI regional have enough aircraft? For all the routes they have opened etc And for the frequencies need to feed the TATAL business?

Also it doesn't look great from a customer point of view when things like pre booked meals on SH are cancelled etc.

FridaysWell

In some routes that EI compete with FR with, they are getting 'hammered'. Examples:

Berlin Schoenefeld
EI -322 Movements, 41,010 pax LF of 74%

FR -253 Movements, 43,168 pax LF of 91%


Faro
EI - 208 Movements, 27,763 pax LF of 75%

FR - 255 Movements, 40,590 pax LF of 85%

Lanzarote
EI - 257 Movements, 39,547 pax LF of 82%

FR - 252 Movements, 43,927 pax LF of 92%

London Gatwck
EI -1,322 Movements, 151,167 pax LF of 66%

FR- 1,259 Movements, 194,40 paxLF of 82%



These are all YTD 2015, Dublin figures.

The most interesting to me is Gatwick.

Jamie2k9

Anyway, point being EI seem to be getting really hammered on short haul. Declining passenger numbers when an economy is growing and competitor is growing is really not a good sign.

I'm quite surprised at the drop off from EI Regional especially after such a good year last year. Anyone any idea why?

SNN based closed! Not sure you realize how EI operate it's revenue driven not seat driven. Compensation is up but revenue per seat is up for EI at the same time.

Jamie2k9

FridaysWell wrote: »

In some routes that EI compete with FR with, they are getting 'hammered'. Examples:

Berlin Schoenefeld EI -322 Movements, 41,010 pax LF of 74%

FR -253 Movements, 43,168 pax LF of 91%


Faro EI - 208 Movements, 27,763 pax LF of 75%

FR - 255 Movements, 40,590 pax LF of 85%

Lanzarote EI - 257 Movements, 39,547 pax LF of 82%
FR - 252 Movements, 43,927 pax LF of 92%

London Gatwck EI -1,322 Movements, 151,167 pax LF of 66%
FR- 1,259 Movements, 194,40 paxLF of 82%

These are all YTD 2015, Dublin figures.

The most interesting to me is Gatwick.

Bet Brussels would make even more interesting reading...wouldn't say they are getting hammered those LF compare with EI average so not a surprise. Is the LGW loads based on 319 for most flights?

FridaysWell

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

Bet Brussels would make even more interesting reading...wouldn't say they are getting hammered those LF compare with EI average so not a surprise. Is the LGW loads based on 319 for most flights?

Brussels -
EI: 573 movements, 61,555 pax LF of 62%
FR: 622 Movements, 83,516 pax LF of 71%

FridaysWell

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

Bet Brussels would make even more interesting reading...wouldn't say they are getting hammered those LF compare with EI average so not a surprise. Is the LGW loads based on 319 for most flights?

Broken down by A/C:

LGW
A319: 13 Movements, 1,422 pax LF of 77%
A320: 1,307 Movements, 149,345 pax LF of 66%
A321: 2 Movements, 380 pax LF of 90%

L1011

Surprised the 319 is down to that few rotations to LGW now.

LiamaDelta

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

SNN based closed! Not sure you realize how EI operate it's revenue driven not seat driven. Compensation is up but revenue per seat is up for EI at the same time.

Revenue per seat being up is not much good when the number of seats being filled reduces!! And taking your 'revenue' scenario - revenue per passenger for Q1 was down 4.7%. Financial figures for April are not out yet but I'd imagine with a drop of 7.5% in passenger numbers it's not going to be pretty.

I think you're missing my point though, there was potential to grab a share of the extra 700,000 customers and they have managed to get none and lose some!! That's a shocking performance imo. It's not just a case of a small decline it's the fact that there are huge gains to be made and they are totally unable to react.

The fantastic gains on long haul are masking a currently small decline, and a huge loss in expansion of short-haul.

Jamie2k9

LiamaDelta wrote: »

Revenue per seat being up is not much good when the number of seats being filled reduces!! And taking your 'revenue' scenario - revenue per passenger for Q1 was down 4.7%. Financial figures for April are not out yet but I'd imagine with a drop of 7.5% in passenger numbers it's not going to be pretty.

I think you're missing my point though, there was potential to grab a share of the extra 700,000 customers and they have managed to get none and lose some!! That's a shocking performance imo. It's not just a case of a small decline it's the fact that there are huge gains to be made and they are totally unable to react.

The fantastic gains on long haul are masking a serious decline in short-haul.

The number of seats being filled is also reduced.....

The April Figures are out:
Short Haul
Passengers - down 5.5%
Capacity - down 10.7%
Revenue - down 7.5%

10.7% cut in capacity delivers major operational savings, passengers drop as does Revenue but EI's bottom line will be better off which is what counts. I think you need to research EI and how they operate. The number of seats filled has increase in April over 12 months ago.

This was predicted 9 months ago.

Had capacity not reduced and they produced those passenger/revenue numbers it would be a real concern.

LXFlyer

This was clearly a planned strategy for the winter months by Aer Lingus - otherwise load factor would have nosedived. It's not as if EI suddenly cancelled lots of flights during the winter - if they did I think we'd have heard about it.

But clearly, Ryanair's new approach is having results for them, and that's great to see.

Realistically we will have to wait and see the long term trends over the summer months for both airlines.

Tenger

lxflyer wrote: »

But clearly, Ryanair's new approach is having results for them, and that's great to see.

Realistically we will have to wait and see the long term trends over the summer months for both airlines.

I would definitely agree that the "new Ryanair" will impact the EI results.
However EI are not chasing load factor, so it cannot be an absolute measure of performance (While I do appreciate Fridayswell putting up those numbers)

Personally I have always felt that a more customer focused Ryanair would wipe the floor with any airline operating shorthaul in Europe. I feel that EI need to response by differentiating themselves from the new 'friendly Ryanair".
I feel that Ei could have done so if Mueller had stayed as CEO, I fear that the current guy will not have the conviction, ability or imagination to do so. His experience and background is almost wholly back office cost cutting and bean-counting.

Preset No.3

FridaysWell wrote: »

It's a shame that FR don't get the coverage they deserve on this forum and in the media.

When you have a company that have been complete and utter c***s to the traveling public for as long as they have been its hard to have any respect for them. Just because of this new fluffy image they have developed over the last year doesn't make them any less of a wolf in sheeps clothing.

Razor44

Tenger wrote: »

I feel that Ei could have done so if Mueller had stayed as CEO, I fear that the current guy will not have the conviction, ability or imagination to do so. His experience and background is almost wholly back office cost cutting and bean-counting.

its with that In mind that I said about EI regional. I know stk do there own thing but surely there's a market for them to grow further with EI's backing. Not to mention EI's own SH operation. I have some doubts with Mueller no longer at the helm.

FridaysWell

Preset No.3 wrote: »

When you have a company that have been complete and utter c***s to the traveling public for as long as they have been its hard to have any respect for them. Just because of this new fluffy image they have developed over the last year doesn't make them any less of a wolf in sheeps clothing.

It's quite popular to dislike and rant about Ryanair, but they do deserve respect for the revolution in air travel they spear headed across Europe over the last 20 years or so.

Year on year growth means people like flying with Ryanair. They've simplified air travel, made it more accessible and people love that. And you'd find a lot of people respect that too. Ask the Germans for one, they love Ryanair and anything that's cheap (Germany is full of Dacia's driving around). The customer service has improved, but it was never so bad that people would stop flying all together with Ryanair.

I just think they do deserve more recognition, at least from a business and aviation perspective, especially in Ireland.

LXFlyer

FridaysWell wrote: »

It's quite popular to dislike and rant about Ryanair, but they do deserve respect for the revolution in air travel they spear headed across Europe over the last 20 years or so.

Year on year growth means people like flying with Ryanair. They've simplified air travel, made it more accessible and people love that. And you'd find a lot of people respect that too. Ask the Germans for one, they love Ryanair and anything that's cheap (Germany is full of Dacia's driving around). The customer service has improved, but it was never so bad that people would stop flying all together with Ryanair.

I just think they do deserve more recognition, at least from a business and aviation perspective, especially in Ireland.

Ryanair for a whole variety of reasons brings out many reactions from Irish people, good and bad, but what no one can deny is that they revolutionised short haul travel in Europe, and I don't think anyone has knocked them for that.

But if you do fell strongly about it, why not start a thread on that topic and see what happens? This one is about Aer Lingus results!

18MonthsaSlave

and ryanair will start to increase capacity by 8 passengers per flight from 2017 onward.
The Aer Lingus flight I was on to Frankfurt on March 11th only had sixty-something passengers on board.

FridaysWell

lxflyer wrote: »

Ryanair for a whole variety of reasons brings out many reactions from Irish people, good and bad, but what no one can deny is that they revolutionised short haul travel in Europe, and I don't think anyone has knocked them for that.

But if you do fell strongly about it, why not start a thread on that topic and see what happens? This one is about Aer Lingus results!

I was replying to a post; it is an interesting point of debate, no doubt.

However, as you pointed out, back on topic: transfer growth YTD vs. last year was 15%, which is roughly in line with growth in the TA business. Anyone think this is sustainable over the year?

Tenger

FridaysWell wrote: »

It's quite popular to dislike and rant about Ryanair, but they do deserve respect for the revolution in air travel they spear headed across Europe over the last 20 years or so.

Year on year growth means people like flying with Ryanair. They've simplified air travel, made it more accessible and people love that. And you'd find a lot of people respect that too........
I just think they do deserve more recognition, at least from a business and aviation perspective, especially in Ireland.

I wholeheartedly agree with that sentiment. I don't think anyone who works in aviation will argue with you that. The Ryanair Revolution has completely re-arranged the EU aviation industry. Along with Southwest they have even been able to influence aircraft design by getting Boeing to develop the B737MAX-200.

The Ryanair haters are often people who dont actually how phenomenal the Ryanair year on year growth actually is.

FridaysWell

Tenger wrote: »

I wholeheartedly agree with that sentiment. I don't think anyone who works in aviation will argue with you that. The Ryanair Revolution has completely re-arranged the EU aviation industry. Along with Southwest they have even been able to influence aircraft design by getting Boeing to develop the B737MAX-200.

The Ryanair haters are often people who dont actually how phenomenal the Ryanair year on year growth actually is.

You'd be surprised by the number of aviation professionals that would argue 'till the cows come home against Ryanair and their business model. I was told once that they would not survive past 2020. Good point on the influence they and Southwest had on aircraft design.

JCX BXC

No doubt that most of the Stobart figure was the pullout of SNN.

The Aer Lingus mainline operations were a series of capacity cuts and at least 1 cut route. Eg. In cork there were 4 less weekly EI flights winter 2014/2015.

18MonthsaSlave

Easyjet and Norwegian increased their volumes in spite of industrial action.
May not be Irish business but it isn't just Ryanair.

http://www.breakingnews.ie/business/passenger-numbers-up-at-easyjet-676015.html

Strumms

18MonthsaSlave wrote: »

and ryanair will start to increase capacity by 8 passengers per flight from 2017 onward.
The Aer Lingus flight I was on to Frankfurt on March 11th only had sixty-something passengers on board.

What does that prove ? I flew to Stansted Monday week gone and if there were 40 people on the Ryanair flight we were doing well.. flew to LHR last Thursday with EI and there wasnt a free seat... one off amateur bean counting means nothing.. the play book is the balance sheet.. both companies offer different but successful products and long may they both do well. Its in nobody's interest to see either struggle or god help us a monopoly.. still interesting times ahead..

18MonthsaSlave

Strumms wrote: »

What does that prove ? I flew to Stansted Monday week gone and if there were 40 people on the Ryanair flight we were doing well.. flew to LHR last Thursday with EI and there wasnt a free seat... one off amateur bean counting means nothing.. the play book is the balance sheet.. both companies offer different but successful products and long may they both do well. Its in nobody's interest to see either struggle or god help us a monopoly.. still interesting times ahead..

with 40 passengers they'd still be making more profit or less loss than AerLingus at sixtysomething.
Thursday before a public holiday I'd expect a flight to be near full.

Jamie2k9

18MonthsaSlave wrote: »

with 40 passengers they'd still be making more profit or less loss than AerLingus at sixtysomething.
Thursday before a public holiday I'd expect a flight to be near full.

Nope

18MonthsaSlave

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

Nope

Like you know!

Jamie2k9

18MonthsaSlave wrote: »

Like you know!

I do.

18MonthsaSlave

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

I do.

You no more have the exact break-even point on a flight for the two carriers than I do.

JCX BXC

I'd agree with Jamie. The EI pax are probably paying more, which would offset the extra costs in the EI operations.

18MonthsaSlave

Carnacalla wrote: »

I'd agree with Jamie. The EI pax are probably paying more, which would offset the extra costs in the EI operations.

"probably". So you don't know either.

Strumms

18MonthsaSlave wrote: »

"probably". So you don't know either.

Well you have confirmed that YOU certainly don't know, or have you facts to back up your assumption. By facts I mean numbers.... Well ?

Strumms

beginning with your statement of fact....

18MonthsaSlave wrote: »

with 40 passengers they'd still be making more profit or less loss than AerLingus at sixtysomething.
Thursday before a public holiday I'd expect a flight to be near full.

followed by...

18MonthsaSlave wrote: »

You no more have the exact break-even point on a flight for the two carriers than I do.

just saying :O

18MonthsaSlave

Strumms wrote: »

beginning with your statement of fact....

Originally Posted by 18MonthsaSlave:
with 40 passengers they'd still be making more profit or less loss than AerLingus at sixtysomething.
Thursday before a public holiday I'd expect a flight to be near full.

followed by...

Originally Posted by 18MonthsaSlave:
You no more have the exact break-even point on a flight for the two carriers than I do.


just saying :O

I know CAPA analysis estimates a dramatically lower break-even point for PLF for Ryanair than for Aer Lingus.
If I claimed that they were definitely making a profit or definitely making a loss then you could accuse me of mixing up fact with speculation.

Anyhow, sh*t results for Aer Lingus and the sale better close before metrics disimprove otherwise IAG might step back and they need IAG to feed passengers in to their trans-atlantic operations to get above BEP on PLF.

Strumms

18MonthsaSlave wrote: »

I know CAPA analysis estimates a dramatically lower break-even point for PLF for Ryanair than for Aer Lingus.
If I claimed that they were definitely making a profit or definitely making a loss then you could accuse me of mixing up fact with speculation.

Anyhow, sh*t results for Aer Lingus and the sale better close before metrics disimprove otherwise IAG might step back and they need IAG to feed passengers in to their trans-atlantic operations to get above BEP on PLF.

no, please elaborate as above on your 40 vs 60 statement of fact, instead of referring to you latest google search... like bugs bunny.. we are all ears :rolleyes:

Tenger

More handbags being thrown around than a night in Coppers!!!

lets all calm down a little. EI area a hugely seasonal carriers and are affected by school breaks and national holidays.
You cannot compare you own experience of individual EI or FR flights. The only onlooker who can take a guess is an airport worker who see's the traffic.
These results are not unexpected so its a bit much to call them "****"

Preset No.3

Tenger wrote: »

More handbags being thrown around than a night in Coppers!!!
****"

That's a LOT of handbags!!!! 😝😀😉

Strumms

Preset No.3 wrote: »

That's a LOT of handbags!!!! ������

you said it... :eek:

18MonthsaSlave

Tenger wrote: »

More handbags being thrown around than a night in Coppers!!!

lets all calm down a little. EI area a hugely seasonal carriers and are affected by school breaks and national holidays.
You cannot compare you own experience of individual EI or FR flights. The only onlooker who can take a guess is an airport worker who see's the traffic.
These results are not unexpected so its a bit much to call them "****"

I disagree these are bad as the don't match the trend in the industry.
Even Lufthansa which have been afflicted by very very well publicized industrial action during the quarter had a relatively good quarter closing losses on similar period last year. So, so many Germans would have put off travelling during this period, not just on the strike days which cost them 42m.
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/lufthansa-reports-net-profit-in-q1-20150505-00070

Aer Lingus need to get the sale done quickly and move in to next stage of their life.