UCL Semi Final First Leg: FC Barcelona vs FC Bayern München RTE 2, SS5,SS1 K/O 19.45

Turtwig

This is a tie that is intriguing on so many levels: Pep's return, Thiago's return. so called tiki taka vs for now what we'll call Enriquism, Bayern's field hospital, A Barcelona revenge mission, Lio Messi's 100th European Appearance. To name just a few.

Luis Enrique's current record in redoubtable. Yet, for all the glowing statistics many Catalans are unhappy with the style of this side. Pep Guardiola is now the manager of Bayern. For all his glowing statistics many Bavarians are unhappy with the style and performances of his side. A loss here for either manager is made all the more significant because it will likely be by a defeat to the philosophy their fans actually want them to play. If Bayern win it will be a philosophy closer to that desired by the Catalans. If Barcelona win it will be with a philosophy closer to that of Heynckes' Bayern'13 side. In the quarter final stages of the champions league this year there were four Barcelona coaches, coaching four different teams. The team that's regarded as the least Barcelona like: Barcelona. That's probably a bit harsh, but it's the perception hanging over Enrique's side.

I'd still argue that Real Madrid are the best side in the world. Being the best and winning aren't the same thing but I think Madrid have the best chance at a double in years. (I'd love if Ancellotti or Allegri was the winning manager at the end of the season. The latter is definitely underappreciated.) Enrique's Barcelona are arguably the most pragmatic side left in the tournament. They have won games this season that they'd no right to win - and certainly the Barca's of the past few seasons would have lost those games. Bayern on the other hand have blown away weaker teams. Against the stronger more dynamic teams in the Germany and in the UCL they've looked somewhat suspect. Add to that the current injury list and it's not hard to see why Barcelona are considered the favourites to many.

Bayern's injury list is a hefty one. The losses of Ribery and Robben in particular are big blow. In my opinion though the biggest blow is actually the loss of Alaba. They've still got a top quality first IX though. Arguably they have best squad depth in Europe. If Barca or Madrid lose their Croatians they're in serious sh1t. (In fact if you're being cynical the best way to beat either of them is to injure their Croations and their alien-like talismen.) Barca wise the loss of Mathieu and niggling calf strains to Alba who remains a doubt could also be very significant. Andriano is just not adequate cover for those players.

Even at full strength, I've yet to be convinced by Pep's Bayern. First let's rewind the clock a moment. When Barcelona lost to Celtic in 2012 the late Tito Vilanova remarked that if they were to lose this was the way to lose. Fair enough, but you lost - and you barely deserved to win the home game too. Against Bayern they lost by 7. Yes, some of those goals should possibly have been disallowed really though Bayern probably deserved more! Yes, that Barca side were a shade of Pep's Barca and a pale shadow of Tito's side that lost to Celtic. Still, Pep's Bayern were thumped by Madrid in an all too eerily similar way. Again the score could have been more. Both managers, displayed a Wenger like idealism or tactical naivety. Even with the defensive line being clearly Mullered (pun intended) they didn't drop deeper and got deservedly hockeyed. The scoreline didn't reflect the abilities of both teams but it did reflect how functionally naive one side was and how efficient the other was. Make a note of that last sentence.

Ancellotti's Madrid have also shown up the frailties of this current Barca side (really Carlo does not get enough credit at all and I can't think of many managers better that Real could replace him with.) Barca's weakness isn't their backline, it's their midfield. Iniesta and Rakitic are not THE Iniesta and Xavi. Without Rakitic their midfield is practically non-existent. Either way it can be disturbed, you can starve them of possession, leaving Messi, Neymar, and Suarez cut off from supply. Valencia have done it too. So too have Celta Vigo. Atletico Madrid, Villareal - they all lost. The problem is you can't cut Barca off for a full game and when they do get the ball back they don't look to build up possession and regain control and composure. They look to go straight for your jugular. It's been described by some as "unBarcelona". As ratios for attacks that lead to goal scoring opportunities go it's extraordinarily efficient. Manchester City, Real Madrid, Valencia, Aletico Madrid etc. all found themselves in the most danger when they actually attacked Barcelona. That might sound like nothing new but Enrique's side isn't actually afraid to drop deeper and let sides come at them and play long 50/50 balls when required. It was how they scored the lead wining goal against many teams. So why not do it? It gives their forward trio space to work with, for every chance they concede they'll likely create 5 or 6. Unfortunately for Enrique many Catalans don't like it. As a neutral, I gotta say it makes for bloody entertaining matches. Some opposition have tried the approach of conceding position to Barcelona and parking the bus. Apart from Malaga though it's hasn't been effective - and they rode their luck. Messi is that kid in FIFA who constantly spams the through ball+lob button. Iniesta has gotten better at it too. It's a very difficult ball to defend against. Personally though I still think sitting deep is the most effective approach. If they score first you're kind of fcked ala PSG (Trying that with David Luiz certainly doesn't help!). If you score first though you have a very good chance of hitting them on another with a counter.

Are this Bayern side likely to do that? Will Pep for the first time in his life concede possession willingly? I don't think so. I saw him play his side more negatively against Dortmund on at least two occassions to stifle their counter attacking threat but I haven't ever seen him play a side as deep as he'd need to. I don't think he can even set up a side that way - more on that later. Maybe Bayern can successfully starve Barca in the midfield that MSN are shut out completely. Thiago, Muller and Xabi Alonso are capable of doing this. Javi Martinez would seem like the ideal inclusion for this.

With Pep everything from every attacking passing sequence to every set piece is rehearsed over and over. Passes are made for the sake of waiting for an opportunity to execute one of these. That Bayern have Muller and Thiago is incredibly significant. Both these players understand the system and execute it brilliantly. Enrique's belief has been more about the players being conditioned, disciplined and building relationships with one another. Only minor adjustments are made in attack, the more significant ones are made in defence. Attack is creativity, agression and directness. Defence is steel and aggression.

In that respect, Pep probably knows exactly how Barcelona are going to play down to the smallest detail. Yet, for the first game in his career, he's playing against a side that will, if they wish, be able to challenge his side's dominance of possession. Not sterilise his possession, but actually keep it from him! Pep's belief was always that if you dominate the match then you don't really have to focus too much on the opposition strengths. Rather, you can focus very deeply on exploiting their weaknesses and keep them constantly preoccupied. To do this requires playing with a high pressing defensive line with your midfielders dictating the game. No side has beaten Barcelona this year with that approach. Last year Real Madrid did it and deservedly won. Well, sort of, they should really have been 2 or 3 goals behind before half-time. Messi and Neymar both missed sitters. The odds on that happening again? Very slim. (Although Neymar does tend to miss one sitter every two games.) Madrid dominated the second half of that match. They had to play out of their skin to do it. Barcelona are a lot more improved since then and I've yet to see Bayern display the exquisite control and poise that Madrid showed. They're undoubtedly the best coached side to play that way, but every game I've considered as a candidate for them to show this in, they've failed. Put simply, I don't think Bayern have the players to play that way to its maximum effectiveness. They can keep possession alright but it's mostly sterile.

The most significant thing about this match for the coaches is that if either side loses it comprehensively the doubt that exist over the philosophy of the coaches will become even more vocal. For the sake of both managers a tight win/loss is desirable. Unfortunately given the way both sides play this seems very unlikely. One side will probably get hockeyed. Finding out which will be fascinating. Perhaps the most fascinating thing of all though is that this tie could be potentially be the moment where so called "tiki taka" - a term Pep hates - is given the final nail in the coffin by, of all teams, a direct long ball Barcelona.

Edit: Ooooh kay that was wayyy long than anticipated.
Tl;dr. Both coaches play their teams in a style that's hotly contentious among their fans. Whichever coach loses will suffer a defeat to the philosophy desired by their critics. The contrast in both styles likely means that we'll have one clear winner. Heaping more misery on the losing coach.

GLaDOS

That is probably one of the best opening posts for a game I've seen here, fair play Turtwig

Barr

3-0 Barca with Pep looking on like a rabbit in the headlights

the_monkey

Nothing match here , Barça to win easily as peps heart won't be in it - be it subconscious or not.

Barca to win both legs easily and the final - football blackened again

Roll on next season so dignity can come back ..

Harry Palmr

Barca are now just an expensive version of Liverpool 13/14 season. Should be exciting

Shanotheslayer

Can't see anything but a Barca win.

GavRedKing

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Barca are now just an expensive version of Liverpool 13/14 season. Should be exciting

Except they can defend :pac:

Barca to win both legs by 2 clear goals IMO.

dfx-

A bit odd for Barcelona to be away from home second in the knockouts.

Just hope the game is alive for the second leg. I'd fancy Barcelona away from home in the second leg to do enough if they are within touching distance. They are 'due' not to show up in a big game this season though...I think both sides might settle for 1-1..

Shanotheslayer

dfx- wrote: »

A bit odd for Barcelona to be away from home second in the knockouts.

Just hope the game is alive for the second leg. I'd fancy Barcelona away from home in the second leg to do enough if they are within touching distance. They are 'due' not to show up in a big game this season though...I think both sides might settle for 1-1..

Why would Barca settle for 1-1 ?

Pro. F

This Bayern doesn't play tikki takka as far as I'm concerned. Whatever it is they do play has been inconsistent when up against top opposition and they're without too many of their best players. Barca for all their flaws still look like a serious team. I can't see anything other than Barca going through comfortably.

Edit: Great read in that OP

Knex*

Dat opening post, doe

DVDM93

Turtwig wrote: »

This is a tie that is intriguing on so many levels: Pep's return, Thiago's return. so called tiki taka vs for now what we'll call Enriquism, Bayern's field hospital, A Barcelona revenge mission, Lio Messi's 100th European Appearance. To name just a few.

Luis Enrique's current record in redoubtable. Yet, for all the glowing statistics many Catalans are unhappy with the style of this side. Pep Guardiola is now the manager of Bayern. For all his glowing statistics many Bavarians are unhappy with the style and performances of his side. A loss here for either manager is made all the more significant because it will likely be by a defeat to the philosophy their fans actually want them to play. If Bayern win it will be a philosophy closer to that desired by the Catalans. If Barcelona win it will be with a philosophy closer to that of Heynckes' Bayern'13 side. In the quarter final stages of the champions league this year there were four Barcelona coaches, coaching four different teams. The team that's regarded as the least Barcelona like: Barcelona. That's probably a bit harsh, but it's the perception hanging over Enrique's side.

I'd still argue that Real Madrid are the best side in the world. Being the best and winning aren't the same thing but I think Madrid have the best chance at a double in years. (I'd love if Ancellotti or Allegri was the winning manager at the end of the season. The latter is definitely underappreciated.) Enrique's Barcelona are arguably the most pragmatic side left in the tournament. They have won games this season that they'd no right to win - and certainly the Barca's of the past few seasons would have lost those games. Bayern on the other hand have blown away weaker teams. Against the stronger more dynamic teams in the Germany and in the UCL they've looked somewhat suspect. Add to that the current injury list and it's not hard to see why Barcelona are considered the favourites to many.

Bayern's injury list is a hefty one. The losses of Ribery and Robben in particular are big blow. In my opinion though the biggest blow is actually the loss of Alaba. They've still got a top quality first IX though. Arguably they have best squad depth in Europe. If Barca or Madrid lose their Croatians they're in serious sh1t. (In fact if you're being cynical the best way to beat either of them is to injure their Croations and their alien-like talismen.) Barca wise the loss of Mathieu and niggling calf strains to Alba who remains a doubt could also be very significant. Andriano is just not adequate cover for those players.

Even at full strength, I've yet to be convinced by Pep's Bayern. First let's rewind the clock a moment. When Barcelona lost to Celtic in 2012 the late Tito Vilanova remarked that if they were to lose this was the way to lose. Fair enough, but you lost - and you barely deserved to win the home game too. Against Bayern they lost by 7. Yes, some of those goals should possibly have been disallowed really though Bayern probably deserved more! Yes, that Barca side were a shade of Pep's Barca and a pale shadow of Tito's side that lost to Celtic. Still, Pep's Bayern were thumped by Madrid in an all too eerily similar way. Again the score could have been more. Both managers, displayed a Wenger like idealism or tactical naivety. Even with the defensive line being clearly Mullered (pun intended) they didn't drop deeper and got deservedly hockeyed. The scoreline didn't reflect the abilities of both teams but it did reflect how functionally naive one side was and how efficient the other was. Make a note of that last sentence.

Ancellotti's Madrid have also shown up the frailties of this current Barca side (really Carlo does not get enough credit at all and I can't think of many managers better that Real could replace him with.) Barca's weakness isn't their backline, it's their midfield. Iniesta and Rakitic are not THE Iniesta and Xavi. Without Rakitic their midfield is practically non-existent. Either way it can be disturbed, you can starve them of possession, leaving Messi, Neymar, and Suarez cut off from supply. Valencia have done it too. So too have Celta Vigo. Atletico Madrid, Villareal - they all lost. The problem is you can't cut Barca off for a full game and when they do get the ball back they don't look to build up possession and regain control and composure. They look to go straight for your jugular. It's been described by some as "unBarcelona". As ratios for attacks that lead to goal scoring opportunities go it's extraordinarily efficient. Manchester City, Real Madrid, Valencia, Aletico Madrid etc. all found themselves in the most danger when they actually attacked Barcelona. That might sound like nothing new but Enrique's side isn't actually afraid to drop deeper and let sides come at them and play long 50/50 balls when required. It was how they scored the lead wining goal against many teams. So why not do it? It gives their forward trio space to work with, for every chance they concede they'll likely create 5 or 6. Unfortunately for Enrique many Catalans don't like it. As a neutral, I gotta say it makes for bloody entertaining matches. Some opposition have tried the approach of conceding position to Barcelona and parking the bus. Apart from Malaga though it's hasn't been effective - and they rode their luck. Messi is that kid in FIFA who constantly spams the through ball+lob button. Iniesta has gotten better at it too. It's a very difficult ball to defend against. Personally though I still think sitting deep is the most effective approach. If they score first you're kind of fcked ala PSG (Trying that with David Luiz certainly doesn't help!). If you score first though you have a very good chance of hitting them on another with a counter.

Are this Bayern side likely to do that? Will Pep for the first time in his life concede possession willingly? I don't think so. I saw him play his side more negatively against Dortmund on at least two occassions to stifle their counter attacking threat but I haven't ever seen him play a side as deep as he'd need to. I don't think he can even set up a side that way - more on that later. Maybe Bayern can successfully starve Barca in the midfield that MSN are shut out completely. Thiago, Muller and Xabi Alonso are capable of doing this. Javi Martinez would seem like the ideal inclusion for this.

With Pep everything from every attacking passing sequence to every set piece is rehearsed over and over. Passes are made for the sake of waiting for an opportunity to execute one of these. That Bayern have Muller and Thiago is incredibly significant. Both these players understand the system and execute it brilliantly. Enrique's belief has been more about the players being conditioned, disciplined and building relationships with one another. Only minor adjustments are made in attack, the more significant ones are made in defence. Attack is creativity, agression and directness. Defence is steel and aggression.

In that respect, Pep probably knows exactly how Barcelona are going to play down to the smallest detail. Yet, for the first game in his career, he's playing against a side that will, if they wish, be able to challenge his side's dominance of possession. Not sterilise his possession, but actually keep it from him! Pep's belief was always that if you dominate the match then you don't really have to focus too much on the opposition strengths. Rather, you can focus very deeply on exploiting their weaknesses and keep them constantly preoccupied. To do this requires playing with a high pressing defensive line with your midfielders dictating the game. No side has beaten Barcelona this year with that approach. Last year Real Madrid did it and deservedly won. Well, sort of, they should really have been 2 or 3 goals behind before half-time. Messi and Neymar both missed sitters. The odds on that happening again? Very slim. (Although Neymar does tend to miss one sitter every two games.) Madrid dominated the second half of that match. They had to play out of their skin to do it. Barcelona are a lot more improved since then and I've yet to see Bayern display the exquisite control and poise that Madrid showed. They're undoubtedly the best coached side to play that way, but every game I've considered as a candidate for them to show this in, they've failed. Put simply, I don't think Bayern have the players to play that way to its maximum effectiveness. They can keep possession alright but it's mostly sterile.

The most significant thing about this match for the coaches is that if either side loses it comprehensively the doubt that exist over the philosophy of the coaches will become even more vocal. For the sake of both managers a tight win/loss is desirable. Unfortunately given the way both sides play this seems very unlikely. One side will probably get hockeyed. Finding out which will be fascinating. Perhaps the most fascinating thing of all though is that this tie could be potentially be the moment where so called "tiki taka" - a term Pep hates - is given the final nail in the coffin by, of all teams, a direct long ball Barcelona.

Edit: Ooooh kay that was wayyy long than anticipated.
Tl;dr. Both coaches play their teams in a style that's hotly contentious among their fans. Whichever coach loses will suffer a defeat to the philosophy desired by their critics. The contrast in both styles likely means that we'll have one clear winner. Heaping more misery on the losing coach.

tl; dr














:P don't be surprised if RTE rob your pre game analysis for tonight Turtwig, it's certainly better than they're capable of fair play.

munchkin_utd

DVDM93 wrote: »

tl; dr

:P don't be surprised if RTE rob your pre game analysis for tonight Turtwig, it's certainly better than they're capable of fair play.

indeed, a perceptive and thoughtful synopsis.

In a similar vein, here's the guardians' take on "Barcelona v Bayern Munich: the evolution of Pep Guardiola"
http://www.theguardian.com/football/video/2015/may/06/bayern-munich-barcelona-pep-guardiola-video

I havent a foggiest on what'll happen tonight. Bayern are missing too many players, and the defenders got caught away against Porto which doesnt inspire confidence, and the likely combination of Schweini and Alonzo doesn't work.

If I was betting I'd say a 1-1 at best for Bayern, but theres so many variables you dont know which way it'll pan out.

Should have a ticket for the return leg so at the very least hoping Bayern don't capitulate tonight

dfx-

Shanotheslayer wrote: »

Why would Barca settle for 1-1 ?

well perhaps not 'settle' for it, but not be daunted by the prospect of having to win/score in Munich.

Munich scoring twice tonight would be a problem, even 2-2 or 3-2, but I don't see that many goals.

DVDM93

I hate when two heavyweights like this meet and one or both teams aren't at full strength. Robben, Ribery, Mathieu, etc...always left wondering what could have been. C'est la vie though, still very much looking forward to it

adox

Bollix. Didnt realise Bayern had so many injuries.:mad:

grumpymunster

This certainly is a game where I would love both sides to lose, but as that is not possible hopefully the winners will lose in the final.

enda1

3-1 to the Germans.

Boskowski

I think Bayern are going to surprise tonight. Not in that they will blow Barca away or even beat them at all. I couldn't predict this one, if anything I'd favour Barcelona. But I think Bayern will look surprisingly uninhibited by their injuries tonight. They will be up for it. Barcas firepower may be just too much though.

Turtwig

All the bayern players are saying they won't park the bus. Does this mean they will park the bus? Pep would throw my entire vision of this game out of the water.

I also think the injuries to Bayern, while significant, don't make their side any less formidable. The potential starting XI they have could easily be first choice players in most teams.

klose

Looks like pep will flood the midfield

https://twitter.com/squawka/status/596003503904022528

And barca line up as expected

https://twitter.com/squawka/status/596005719083773954


Also a wild vermaelen appears on barcas bench.

Kirby

I tipped Barca to win this year champions league back in September so I'm not going to change my mind now. 3-0 to Barca.

kfallon

Turtwig wrote: »

I also think the injuries to Bayern, while significant, don't make their side any less formidable. The potential starting XI they have could easily be first choice players in most teams.

Robben and Alaba are massive losses for Bayern! Robben is Bayern's version of Messi!

RasTa

Really looking forward to this

Harry Palmr

Turtwig wrote: »

I also think the injuries to Bayern, while significant, don't make their side any less formidable. The potential starting XI they have could easily be first choice players in most teams.

Nearly every team will get beaten by Barcelona, so they will not be at any advantage by fielding a weakened side! :pac:

Suarez to score.

Muller a good outside bet too. Big game player

DVDM93

Alves dressed up for it anyway.

marklazarcovic

hoping for a big barca win

Rayne Wooney

At least Barca have been entertaining the past few months, I'm on the anyone but Bayern boat

spiritcrusher

Brady: "I think Guardiola will tell his players to keep possession of the ball". World class analysis there! A Guardiola team keeping possession... That's just reckless speculation Liam.

LuckyGent88

Stadium looks amazing.

2-1 barca win. Rakatic for the first goal

Turtyturd

Ref pass...here come the Chelsea conspiracy theorists.

niallo27

There never given. Free all day outside the box.

microsim

Stone wall penalty and red card all day long for me.

lycan238

Did the rte commentator just say (barca player) could nutmeg a mermaid?

LuckyGent88

Leaving the barca front 3 one on one is such a dangerous plan

DVDM93

lycan238 wrote: »

Did the rte commentator just say (barca player) could nutmeg a mermaid?

Yup, Suarez.

GreNoLi

RTE player pulling out all the stops, literally.

Rayne Wooney

Bayerns high line did Pep learn anything from Madrid last season

lycan238

DVDM93 wrote: »

Yup, Suarez.

ah ok. wonder he did not say that about messi. thanks for the reply.

LuckyGent88

Butchered chance. What a ridiculous tactic

DVDM93

lycan238 wrote: »

ah ok. wonder he did not say that about messi. thanks for the reply.

No prob. Rakitic nutmegged someone and the commentator said that he must have been getting lessons off Suarez who could nutmeg a mermaid.

GreNoLi

Best in the world.

Rayne Wooney

This is amateur stuff such a high line and 3v3 against Messi Neymar and Suarez is insanity

Say Your Number

How are Bayern not 3 or 4 nill down by now

klose

Got to finish that

Knex*

Long ball to Messi for the flick on :pac:

Suarez probably should have scored, but great save nonetheless.

LuckyGent88

How are barca not winning by 2 or 3?? So many chances. Suarez could have went down there

Knex*

Jaysus, Barca should be home and dry already. Bayern need to change things up, they're being far too exploited at times.

Edit : changed to back four now

LuckyGent88

Sitter missed

Knex*

That's a shocking miss!