Why you should invest in Tesla

Frugalon

I made a quick video explaining why you should invest in Tesla today before the big announcement. It's a company worth trusting and there is the potential for a large stock value increase over the coming days after the announcement.

The announcement takes place 2 hours before the market closes, so we'll be watching it live and making sure it's a good announcement and is received well. We'll be ready to drop all of our stock if it's bad.

Should be an almost surefire win.

Can't link the video because I'm a new member but if you look up "The Tesla Experiment" on YouTube and uploaded in the last day, you'll find it.

Any thoughts on how we could be wrong about this?

alb

Frugalon wrote: »

Any thoughts on how we could be wrong about this?

The company has so far sold 66,800 cars and is valued at nearly $30 billion, I see plenty that can go wrong. I hope they do well though.

Blacktie.

First post :rolleyes:

phantom_lord

Frugalon wrote: »

Any thoughts on how we could be wrong about this?

Seems simplistic. Do you not think there's a strong possibility that a big announcement is already priced in?

How much do you expect to make if it goes well vs goes bad? What do you think of the current price to earnings ratio they have?

Zascar

I'm a big Tasla fan, definitely going to invest. I just wish I had got in earlier. The guy is a total genius.

RobertKK

Elon Musk is the successor to Steve Jobs in terms of vision.

Tesla shares have done well recently from the $180s area to $233s.
The Tesla Gigafactory could potentially revolutionise batteries, but then at the same time newer technology could make it obsolete.

There is talk of an Apple car, buying Tesla would make sense for Apple.

Frugalon

Blacktie. wrote: »

First post :rolleyes:

:rolleyes: indeed

phantom_lord wrote: »

Seems simplistic. Do you not think there's a strong possibility that a big announcement is already priced in?

How much do you expect to make if it goes well vs goes bad? What do you think of the current price to earnings ratio they have?

We did well in the past with simplistic approaches to investments. We bet on Twitter before they had a big stock rise earlier in the year and made a 22% return on that. All we did there was buy in just before their announcement about their new advertising strategies and plans to increase revenue and we decided based on its current stock value at the time and what it has been in the past that it's a relatively safe bet.

If it goes well, we expect the stock price to potentially raise by $50 or even more. We will be watching it very closely though and dumping stock at any sign of trouble. We almost got bitten before by the Sandisk disaster in the first quarter of this year. I barely managed to convince my partner to get out as I suspected it was about to crash.

Zascar wrote: »

I'm a big Tasla fan, definitely going to invest. I just wish I had got in earlier. The guy is a total genius.

Yeah, this is the big reason we're putting a lot into this. Elon Musk has an excellent reputation and has great visions for the future. Not only that but he has proven that he can make his visions become a reality time and time again. I'd be shocked if this went badly.

RobertKK wrote: »

Elon Musk is the successor to Steve Jobs in terms of vision.

Tesla shares have done well recently from the $180s area to $233s.
The Tesla Gigafactory could potentially revolutionise batteries, but then at the same time newer technology could make it obsolete.

There is talk of an Apple car, buying Tesla would make sense for Apple.

This is true. In this case we're looking at a short term increase and getting out then, not going in long run on this as it's definitely possible that Tesla could in the future get taken out by existing automobile giants.

Value Hunter

Frugalon wrote: »

I made a quick video explaining why you should invest in Tesla today before the big announcement. It's a company worth trusting and there is the potential for a large stock value increase over the coming days after the announcement.

The announcement takes place 2 hours before the market closes, so we'll be watching it live and making sure it's a good announcement and is received well. We'll be ready to drop all of our stock if it's bad.

Should be an almost surefire win.

Can't link the video because I'm a new member but if you look up "The Tesla Experiment" on YouTube and uploaded in the last day, you'll find it.

Any thoughts on how we could be wrong about this?

So your trying to convince people why Tesla is a great investment?

Yet you're going to dump all your stock in the company if this one announcement doesn't go your way?

Outstanding commitment and confidence in this investment that you have good sir

Frugalon

Value Hunter wrote: »

So your trying to convince people why Tesla is a great investment?

Yet you're going to dump all your stock in the company if this one announcement doesn't go your way?

Outstanding commitment and confidence in this investment that you have good sir

Not that it's a great long term investment, but that it's potentially an excellent short term investment with relatively little risk.

We believe in Tesla but that doesn't mean that we'll let emotions get in the way of making money.

The point is that this investment has high potential short term gains (right now) and low risk for losing money as far as we can tell and that's what we're trying to convince people of. Based on the history of Tesla we're confident the stock should increase over the coming days.

zpehtsfd

Frugalon wrote: »

Not that it's a great long term investment, but that it's potentially an excellent bullish short term investment with little risk.

Little Risk? As Robertkk said "Tesla shares have done well recently from the $180s area to $233s." Buy the Rumor, Sell the News. Also Earnings are next week and this market is starting to deflate some of these bloats.

As for Musk, there is no question the man is a genius, but in my opinion he has too many ventures going on for me to bet solely on Tesla at this valuation. If they lumped all his ventures into an one trading vehicle then i'd be the first to buy it. GL.

Value Hunter

Your talking about a trade, and a highly risky one at that.

If the announcement is after the market and is significant you will lose all control, the share price will gap as soon as the market opens. Your stop losses wont get filled and you could be nursing a heavy loss.

If it works out you'll make a profit.

May as well be flipping a coin imo.

You've got no edge over the market for this stock

paisley2

Value Hunter wrote: »

Your talking about a trade, and a highly risky one at that.

If the announcement is after the market and is significant you will lose all control, the share price will gap as soon as the market opens. Your stop losses wont get filled and you could be nursing a heavy loss.

If it works out you'll make a profit.

May as well be flipping a coin imo.

You've got no edge over the market for this stock

I agree with everything Value Hunter is saying here, rather than go to all the hassle of opening a position ahead of an announcement, just go and buy a lottery ticket. At least then you are not deluding yourself that you know what you are doing. You plan to sell the shares quickly if the announcement is bad, WHO exactly are you going to sell them to?
Are you familiar with the greater fool theory?

gordongekko

Frugalon wrote: »

Not that it's a great long term investment, but that it's potentially an excellent short term investment with relatively little risk.

We believe in Tesla but that doesn't mean that we'll let emotions get in the way of making money.

The point is that this investment has high potential short term gains (right now) and low risk for losing money as far as we can tell and that's what we're trying to convince people of. Based on the history of Tesla we're confident the stock should increase over the coming days.

You keep talking about "we" who's "we"

Value Hunter

Honestly, the fact you refer to a one day position as an investment speaks bounds for your level of knowledge

smash

They're not all about cars. Tesla will grow considerably over the next few years!

Tesla unveils batteries to power homes: http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-32545081

Tesla's Gigafactory: http://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-battery-factory-construction-on-schedule-1425661755

paisley2

Frugalon wrote: »

Any thoughts on how we could be wrong about this?

There is so much wrong with your opening post I don't even know where to start.
If this was a penny stock I would dismiss your post as a 'Pump and Dump', but seeing as it's TSLA, I can only assume you are serious and that makes it worse

Value Hunter

The OP has closed their account.

Boards should really bring in a minimum number of posts for new users before being allowed post in the I & M forum, would cut out all this dribble

paisley2

Agreed

alb

Regardless of the OP, here's the presentation about the battery, it's interesting beyond consideration about the share price. It's great to see people making futurism a reality, and extra kudos for open sourcing the patents.

Zascar

I'm only a new investor, but was considering buying into Tesla for the medium to long term. Thoughts?

gordongekko

Zascar wrote: »

I'm only a new investor, but was considering buying into Tesla for the medium to long term. Thoughts?

Why tesla? Why not Ford gm etc?

Zascar

Because I believe Elon Must is a Genuis and possibly the most important person of our time. Look at his history. He was early to take advantage of the internet and maps with Zip2. Not stopping there he revolutionised online payments with PayPal. He created a massive solar company. He brought electric cars from gimmicky and rubbish to the incredible Model S they have today. People laughed when he said he was going to build rockets for Nasa, but they gave him a billion dollar contract. He's now going into the battery market which will clearly be massive - and he's about to make home batteries a reality - making solar even more usable. He gave away his patents for electric cars for anyone to use, and invented the hyperloop and did that the same with that idea also.

I think what he has to come in the future will be even more remarkable. I don't see ford or GM doing anything of note. I think Tesla have a long way to come..

Value Hunter

Zascar wrote: »

Because I believe Elon Must is a Genuis and possibly the most important person of our time. Look at his history. He was early to take advantage of the internet and maps with Zip2. Not stopping there he revolutionised online payments with PayPal. He created a massive solar company. He brought electric cars from gimmicky and rubbish to the incredible Model S they have today. People laughed when he said he was going to build rockets for Nasa, but they gave him a billion dollar contract. He's now going into the battery market which will clearly be massive - and he's about to make home batteries a reality - making solar even more usable. He gave away his patents for electric cars for anyone to use, and invented the hyperloop and did that the same with that idea also.

I think what he has to come in the future will be even more remarkable. I don't see ford or GM doing anything of note. I think Tesla have a long way to come..

Problem is, everyone thinks the same.

The stock is very expensive as a result

gordongekko

Zascar wrote: »

Because I believe Elon Must is a Genuis and possibly the most important person of our time. Look at his history. He was early to take advantage of the internet and maps with Zip2. Not stopping there he revolutionised online payments with PayPal. He created a massive solar company. He brought electric cars from gimmicky and rubbish to the incredible Model S they have today. People laughed when he said he was going to build rockets for Nasa, but they gave him a billion dollar contract. He's now going into the battery market which will clearly be massive - and he's about to make home batteries a reality - making solar even more usable. He gave away his patents for electric cars for anyone to use, and invented the hyperloop and did that the same with that idea also.

I think what he has to come in the future will be even more remarkable. I don't see ford or GM doing anything of note. I think Tesla have a long way to come..

So you think it's a wise idea to invest in a car company to get access to unproven battery technology?

paisley2

alb wrote: »

Regardless of the OP, here's the presentation about the battery, it's interesting beyond consideration about the share price. It's great to see people making futurism a reality, and extra kudos for open sourcing the patents.

The concept of storing electricity in a network of privately owned batteries and supplying back and forth into the grid depending on requirements is not new. I was at a presentation from ESB Networks about this exact subject 3 years ago. The role out of smart meters is the beginning of this. One guy was even working on the software to run it all and on the futures trading platform for all this privately stored energy. The really clever bit is getting the public to pay for the energy storage in batteries (thinking they are saving money) rather than the utility companies having to accrue for spare capacity. (Remember the fad a few years back of people putting large diesel tanks in their back garden, thinking they could buy diesel cheaper if they bought it in bulk). Essentially the public becomes a new electricity generator, like people growing their own food and trading it back and forth with the supermarket depending on supply and demand. Of course what they don't tell you (at least in Ireland anyway) is that the reliability and low cost of nuclear energy is the bedrock that supports the current renewable energy grid and this whole new vision for public batteries.

So the idea is not new. But I think Tesla might be able to do with this idea what Apple did with the mobile phone, basically take something already in use and transform it through clever innovation and good marketing.

forcebewithyou

Can you please advise how I can buy Tesla shares? thanks

TheFin

If they're making the best battery then yes. I think the Powerwall has exceptional potential but as a share punt probably only as part of a risk tolerant portfolio.

lucky john

Any opinions on Tesla before results on tuesday?

Seriously considering putting a few euro in and leaving it there for 5 years minimum. The investment is in Musk as much as Tesla because guys like him only come along in small numbers and the opportunity to be a tiny part of what he might archive appeals to me.
This is an investment though and timing could be important to the end result.

it comes down to the guidance on cars produced for this year that should be given on Tuesday. earlier this year they changed the numbers from 55,000 to between 50,000 to 55,000 and the share price tanked. As it is the are up to 33,110 for the first 9 months. They require over 1200 units per week for the last quarter and that is pushing their production line hard just to hit the low end of guidance. If they miss the target the price will be in the $190 area before Friday but if they hit 51,000 plus then $120 is more like where they could be. Unfortunately, while Musk always delivers its not always in the time promised so hence the reluctance to jump in before tuesday.

Nody

Honestly Tesla is a big bubble company at this stage and reminds me of Fingerprint companies (they have gone up like 1200% this year) and the fact the current stock exchange is already very highly valued from historical values (due to zero interest by Fed etc.). Look at any economical data you want and try to justify the current valuation without some future "everyone will drive Tesla" math and tell me what you come back and don't fall back on the justification that he's a genius and therefor it's ok. It reminds me of the 2000 IT boom with the companies having insane valuations "because they have to be first and then they will make gazillions" which became a reinforcing mantra until the crash with the individuals who as always were the last on to the train taking the hit. Finger print companies and Tesla just happens to be the latest version of it and while I do hope, and think, long term it may work out the valuations today vs. the alternatives simply makes me sit at the sidelines. Yes, I may miss a share gain but investments is about risk vs. potential reward and the risk in Tesla are way higher then the potential reward at this stage and will be for quite a while by the looks of it.

ozmo

Just checking the stock price - and although it did rise somewhat for a time for a few weeks - had anyone listened to the OP - you would be down cash right about now.

lucky john

Nody wrote: »

Honestly Tesla is a big bubble company at this stage and reminds me of Fingerprint companies (they have gone up like 1200% this year) and the fact the current stock exchange is already very highly valued from historical values (due to zero interest by Fed etc.). Look at any economical data you want and try to justify the current valuation without some future "everyone will drive Tesla" math and tell me what you come back and don't fall back on the justification that he's a genius and therefor it's ok. It reminds me of the 2000 IT boom with the companies having insane valuations "because they have to be first and then they will make gazillions" which became a reinforcing mantra until the crash with the individuals who as always were the last on to the train taking the hit. Finger print companies and Tesla just happens to be the latest version of it and while I do hope, and think, long term it may work out the valuations today vs. the alternatives simply makes me sit at the sidelines. Yes, I may miss a share gain but investments is about risk vs. potential reward and the risk in Tesla are way higher then the potential reward at this stage and will be for quite a while by the looks of it.

One big difference between Tesla and companies of the dotcom boom is that Tesla actually sell a product you can physically see and touch. Its not even a new product just a new spin on a product. There is no mystery here as regards the numbers. there is a production cost, a sale price and a margin. So this is no dotcom type company, but a very traditional business. Musk though has just engineered a very new USP for the motor industry. He is selling an iphone you can drive and I suspect that will drive itself in the near future. You may scoff at the Musk effect but it is a legitimate driver of price.

The numbers under the hood are not that bad. they are been influenced by the huge amount spent on R&D and setup costs. Both these things will bear fruit from next year on. Now that Model X is up and running the concentration will be on the Model 3 ( Was supposed to be the Model E (SEX) but Ford registered the E first. musk is looking at the next car been the Model Y). Modle 3 will be the first attempt at producing an all EC that is affordable to the middle class. It will be turning Tesla into a mainstream auto manufacturer. That is scaring the crap out of the big guys and hence a lot of anti Tesla headlines.

My hesitation is nothing to do with fear this is in any way a bubble stock. I don't for a second think it is. I just thing Tesla over promised on the time line (not for the first time) and will struggle to meet expectations. The risk V reward I see is that they do pull off 50000 plus units and a decent entry price is missed.
When i do invest I will post and in 5 years time we will see where we are.

Nody

lucky john wrote: »

One big difference between Tesla and companies of the dotcom boom is that Tesla actually sell a product you can physically see and touch. Its not even a new product just a new spin on a product. There is no mystery here as regards the numbers. there is a production cost, a sale price and a margin. So this is no dotcom type company, but a very traditional business. Musk though has just engineered a very new USP for the motor industry. He is selling an iphone you can drive and I suspect that will drive itself in the near future. You may scoff at the Musk effect but it is a legitimate driver of price.

Boo.com had a legitimate website you could buy from; that did not stop it from being a billion dollar sink hole. It was also very much ahead of it's peers on the market (it was the selling point after all with Musk) and it failed just as easily as well. All you've stated as an argument beyond that is "he's a genius so that motivates everything else" which was exactly a dot.com style argument as well which is promise of future visions of grandiose without having anything to actually back them up of being realized.

The numbers under the hood are not that bad. they are been influenced by the huge amount spent on R&D and setup costs. Both these things will bear fruit from next year on. Now that Model X is up and running the concentration will be on the Model 3 ( Was supposed to be the Model E (SEX) but Ford registered the E first. musk is looking at the next car been the Model Y). Modle 3 will be the first attempt at producing an all EC that is affordable to the middle class. It will be turning Tesla into a mainstream auto manufacturer. That is scaring the crap out of the big guys and hence a lot of anti Tesla headlines.

Sorry but a 50k car is not the definition of affordable; even 30k would be pushing it and that's assuming there would be no competition on the market. Remember the car can ONLY be sold in a very limited market due to the lack of plug in recharging network and that's not exactly going to explode because of one specialized car company; if anything the best bet he has is to sell his technology for other companies to use rather then trying to corner the market himself (but I doubt he'll do that; to much ego).

My hesitation is nothing to do with fear this is in any way a bubble stock. I don't for a second think it is. I just thing Tesla over promised on the time line (not for the first time) and will struggle to meet expectations. The risk V reward I see is that they do pull off 50000 plus units and a decent entry price is missed.
When i do invest I will post and in 5 years time we will see where we are.

But by the definition you do believe it's overvalued and hence not worth the current money (compared to the alternatives) or you'd invest in it. Your reason is that you think he's not going to get the sales he claims; my claim is he's not going to get the sales/promises he's targeting and hence his share is overvalued and the argument for the current price is magical pixy dust (i.e. "he's a genius and hence this will sky rocket in a couple of years just you wait and see"). The only difference being I see a self fulfilling prophecy going on with everyone raving about Musk for years now and motivating how the future will be saved because of his electrical cars etc. to convince themselves and the people around them it's the right choice; numbers disagree however and chances are they'll end up a niche company at best...

lucky john

"Sorry but a 50k car is not the definition of affordable; even 30k would be pushing it and that's assuming there would be no competition on the market. Remember the car can ONLY be sold in a very limited market due to the lack of plug in recharging network and that's not exactly going to explode because of one specialized car company; if anything the best bet he has is to sell his technology for other companies to use rather then trying to corner the market himself (but I doubt he'll do that; to much ego). "


unfortunately you know little or nothing about Tesla or Musk If you did you would know Tesla are committed to and have long began rolling out charging stations all over the US and further afield. You would also know that Tesla makes all its technology open source and has committed publicly not to defend any patents it owns. Also Musk will always be the owner of the FIRST private company to build, send and return a rocket to the ISS.

I want to gain the most from any investment I can. It is prudent to buy as low as possible. I see nothing wrong with that.

Sabre Man

The reason the cars are only sold in a limited number of markets is production constraints. The charging network is constantly being expanded.

Tesla Model S is already outselling high-end BMWs and Audis in Europe, and is not too far behind Mercedes
http://www.bmwblog.com/2015/10/19/tesla-model-s-passes-bmw-audi-getting-close-to-mercedes-in-europe/

I would not buy any TSLA shares right now though as I think the price will fall further on weak production numbers. Tesla was also slated by Consumer Reports over quality issues. My impression is that quality is improving but I still have some concerns over drive units and batteries in the long run.

RobertKK

Elon Musk is the successor to Steve Jobs, the same vision and innovation.

I wouldn't bet against him. We all wish we had bought the shares when at $30 a share.

beertons

How much are they now?

RobertKK

beertons wrote: »

How much are they now?

Right now $211 a share, their all time high is $286.

alb

RobertKK wrote: »

Elon Musk is the successor to Steve Jobs, the same vision and innovation.

Is that assumption already priced in? It seems like it is.

RobertKK

alb wrote: »

Is that assumption already priced in? It seems like it is.

He is a CEO that comes with a lot of trust due to his record. So yes, you are right there is an Elon Musk factor priced into the shares.
But ultimately it is a numbers game.

Sabre Man

The earnings report is out tonight after market close.

RobertKK

Good guidance has Tesla up around 8% after hours.

Revenue a slight miss, adjusted loss higher than estimates.

lucky john

they will hit the important number of 50000 plus units. they have also brought forward the launch of the model 3 to mid 2016. a few other positives in there as well regarding the battery business. Should have gone with instinct on this one and just jumped in on the weakness. Sometimes too much research and thinking about it is as bad as too little.

Blacktie.

lucky john wrote:

they will hit the important number of 50000 plus units. they have also brought forward the launch of the model 3 to mid 2016. a few other positives in there as well regarding the battery business. Should have gone with instinct on this one and just jumped in on the weakness. Sometimes too much research and thinking about it is as bad as too little.

It's called hindsight and will never be wrong.

lucky john

Took the plunge today at $230 per share. Not a big investment, 14 shares. I hope my foresight proves as good as my hindsight. This is a long term investment. I expect to be still in here 5 years from now.

Sabre Man

lucky john wrote: »

Took the plunge today at $230 per share. Not a big investment, 14 shares. I hope my foresight proves as good as my hindsight. This is a long term investment. I expect to be still in here 5 years from now.

Best of luck. I'm cheering them on from the sidelines as I like their products.

If I decide to invest in Tesla again I will probably be utilizing a buy low sell high shortish term strategy using technical indicators. It's a very volatile stock for an exiting future.

lucky john

Sabre Man wrote: »

Best of luck. I'm cheering them on from the sidelines as I like their products.

If I decide to invest in Tesla again I will probably be utilizing a buy low sell high shortish term strategy using technical indicators. It's a very volatile stock for an exiting future.

I like the products and musk. Its a tech company with a product I can actually understand. Its a simple business model. Just build and sell cars.

IF they deliver the promised number of cars by year end then all should be fine. If they don't then you will definitely get your chance. Keep an eye out for the "will they, won't they" next January.

Thargor

Nody wrote: »

Honestly Tesla is a big bubble company at this stage and reminds me of Fingerprint companies (they have gone up like 1200% this year) and the fact the current stock exchange is already very highly valued from historical values (due to zero interest by Fed etc.). Look at any economical data you want and try to justify the current valuation without some future "everyone will drive Tesla" math and tell me what you come back and don't fall back on the justification that he's a genius and therefor it's ok. It reminds me of the 2000 IT boom with the companies having insane valuations "because they have to be first and then they will make gazillions" which became a reinforcing mantra until the crash with the individuals who as always were the last on to the train taking the hit. Finger print companies and Tesla just happens to be the latest version of it and while I do hope, and think, long term it may work out the valuations today vs. the alternatives simply makes me sit at the sidelines. Yes, I may miss a share gain but investments is about risk vs. potential reward and the risk in Tesla are way higher then the potential reward at this stage and will be for quite a while by the looks of it.

Im out since 230-240 for all the reasons listed above, I was just starting to dread the day I logged in to see TSLA 30-40% down on some report and then returning to a more realistic valuation, still think it could happen tbh, not only do they not have unique patents they actively release anything interesting they do have for free and they let other cars use their supercharger network, there is literally nothing stopping Ford and GM and the rest from letting Musk do the groundwork and then hopping onboard with equally impressive products. Any battery tech or anything they come up with will likewise be pumped out cheaper in Asia by companies you never heard of. Tesla are not the invincible brand that Apple was under Jobs.

Sabre Man

Thargor wrote: »

not only do they not have unique patents they actively release anything interesting they do have for free and they let other cars use their supercharger network, there is literally nothing stopping Ford and GM and the rest from letting Musk do the groundwork and then hopping onboard with equally impressive products. Any battery tech or anything they come up with will likewise be pumped out cheaper in Asia by companies you never heard of. Tesla are not the invincible brand that Apple was under Jobs.

Other cars can't use Tesla superchargers. Once the gigafactory is ready it will take a lot for anyone to compete with battery prices, Asians included.

Tesla is a cool brand with prices to match. Model 3 will to to cars what the iPhone did to Nokia, Blackberry and the others.

Thargor

They can charge there just not supercharge cant they? iPhone (copied immediately by Android which is now 80-90% of the market) wont happen with electric cars after Teslas initial success. Ford, GM, BMW, VW etc are not going to slink off and die, anything with mainstream success instead of niche luxury will be copied X infinity.

Sabre Man

Thargor wrote: »

They can charge there just not supercharge cant they? iPhone (copied immediately by Android which is now 80-90% of the market) wont happen with electric cars after Teslas initial success. Ford, GM, BMW, VW etc are not going to slink off and die, anything with mainstream success instead of niche luxury will be copied X infinity.

No, early Model S60 owners had to pay $2500 to get supercharger access. Currently all new Teslas can supercharge, but it may be an option on Model 3 (my speculation) to keep the base price down.