Leinster v Bath, 04/04/15; 1515 - live on BT Sports 1 and Newstalk

total former

I'll kick it off with some nostalgia. This clip was great for reminding me what Luke is capable of, let's now use it to remind ourselves what Leinster are capable of:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Ept4C0RfQs

Right, back to reality:

Seems like every game is "season-defining" for Leinster these days but this is the real deal. A Heineken Cup semi-final would go some way to absolving us of some of our more disappointing showings in the league and might take some of the heat off Matt O'Connor. But how likely is it?
Well, Paddy Power tells us that it's only quite likely, giving Leinster a 4 point handicap with Bath 6/4 to be the one away quarter-final win which has been the average in recent years. I'd say it's been a while since Leinster were at such narrow odds for a knockout European game at home, so the question is how much of that is down to Bath's ability and how much to Leinster's travails this season? The good news is that if it's the latter, it's fixable, but how?

Leinster: Return of the Macks?
Based on recent form, the best-case scenario for Leinster is that the return of world-class players, denied to them for long periods this season, will take the game by the scruff of the neck and assert their class, raising the game of those around them. Sean O'Brien has had no meaningful involvement for Leinster in 15 months but looked to be firing on all cylinders in Murrayfield ten days ago, Cian Healy likewise has seen little time in blue but seems to be rediscovering his mojo and Jamie Heaslip will be looking to put his injury nightmare (by his standards) firmly behind him. Add in the other returning internationals in Toner, Ross and Rob Kearney and things look rosy enough. For the first time, it seemed like Leinster would have a full deck to choose from, until the news of Ruddock's injury broke. Still, the personnel situation is better than it has been for a long time.

Yet the question remains, is there enough time for them to reintegrate into Matt O'Connor's team? The shortened gap between the Six Nations and European knock-outs compared to previous years isn't a help there. The even bigger question is; can they integrate into O'Connor's plans, and is he playing the right plan at all? At times this season, the game plan has seemed fragmented and confused, resulting in one-off runners becoming isolated in under-resourced rucks, or the ball has been forced wide when it doesn't seem to be on. Can they solve this by Saturday?

Bath, for their part, experienced a much lesser disruption due to the Six Nations, only George Ford, Jonathan Joseph and Anthony Watson featuring for England on Super Saturday, with Dave Attwood involved previously. That should mean a smoother re-integration, but they have their own problems, such as the propping injury crisis which has seen three internationals ruled out in Paul James (loosehead), David Wilson (TH) and Henry Thomas (TH). With six props involved in the most recent Ireland camp, this should be an area Leinster look to exploit. Bath's other main problem is their star signing, Sam Burgess, who has adjusted more slowly to union than many would like. Considering there was a debate about whether he would be a flanker or centre right up until his debut, perhaps this isn't surprising. Seeing his friend and former teammate Ben Te'o settle in better at Leinster won't have helped his state of mind. It looks like Bath are going to persist, despite having a genuine alternative in Kyle Eastmond; it's probably only a matter of time before Burgess clicks, let's hope it's not this weekend.


Ben and Sam in happier times.

Bath's ace in the hole is, of course, George Ford. He'll have a point to prove at the Aviva, where his star dimmed slightly when Ireland looked to have figured him out, but Ford is a player with a serious range of skills and he'll adapt. While Leinster have often looked rudderless at 10 this season, Ford has the class to get the most out of the talent outside him; he'll look to play close to the gain line and get the likes of Burgess and Joseph running on to flat balls at pace - the Leinster defence will need to be significantly improved from what we saw last Friday and the back row of Murphy, O'Brien and Heaslip will need to be razor sharp in cutting him off.

Key Battles?
As mentioned above, Leinster will look to exert their superiority in the scrum against a less high-profile Bath front row of Nick Auterac, Rob Webber and Kane Palma-Newport. No, me neither. They do have quality in the second row with captain Stuart Hooper and Dave Attwood and. with McCarthy's form up and down and Douglas carrying injury, a lot will rest on Toner's shoulders. Backrow should be an area of strength for Leinster but Francois Louw is one of the best opensides in the world at the moment and Houston is a decent #8. Overall, Leinster should have the power and experience to dominate up front.
Outside them, well, it's a lot closer. A back line featuring Ford, Joseph, Watson, Burgess and Agulla is always going to be a handful. Not that Leinster lack class, but getting the most from that class has not been easy this season.

Selection debate
Props and midfield are the main head-scratchers for this weekend. Does Jack McGrath's excellent consistency trump Healy's explosiveness? Probably not, and McGrath is definitely the better man to come off the bench. Will they stick with Moore or has Ross' excellent 6N redeemed his standing? The latter I'd say, but could go either way and Ross could find himself going from 6N winner to outside the Leinster 23 inside two weeks. In the centres, Madigan is probably nailed down at 12 thanks mainly to his (usually) unerring boot and, despite Te'o's rapid improvements, Luke Fitzgerald is the most likely to partner him. After that, the rest of the team picks itself to a large extent.


So, what's the plan Matt?
The squad available to Leinster this weekend is the strongest they've had all season and while it's still a step down from the all-conquering Leinster squads of yore, it is good enough (on paper) to win, just so long as it's used properly.
Leinster need to take this back to first principles. Give the ball to Healy, Cronin, O'Brien, Murphy, Heaslip and let them run into the guy in front of them, recycle, and go again. Key to this is committing to rucks, protecting the carrier and recycling quickly - all of which have been absent in the inauspicious start to Leo Cullen's coaching career. The ball needs to be protected and retained; turnovers are likely to kill us given the guys lining out in the opposite backline. Hopefully the tireless ruck work we saw in the Six Nations will be replicated on Saturday. This has to be drilled into Gopperth and Madigan; they have to quell their innate urges to go lateral early. They simply have to. Hopefully Reddan will be at his cranky, bossy best and will keep things on track (if he passes the RTPP of course). Bath might look to the mirror image, to try to get the ball away from contact as quickly as possible and to exploit the power and pace they have from 11 to 15.

Possible teams:
Leinster:
Healy, Cronin, Ross, Toner, Douglas, Murphy, O'Brien, Heaslip
Reddan, Gopperth, Dave Kearney, Madigan, Fitzgerald, McFadden, Rob Kearney
Subs:
Strauss, McGrath, Moore, McCarthy, Conan, Boss, D'Arcy, Kirchner/Te'o

Bath:
Auterac, Webber, Palma-Newport, Hooper, Attwood, Garvey, Louw, Houston
Cook, Ford, Banahan, Joseph, Burgess, Agulla, Watson
Subs:
Batty, Lahiff, Obano, Day, Fearns, Young, Devoto, Eastmond

If anyone is better informed on the likely Bath line-up, I'm very open to correction. Despite full-page spreads in both the Irish Times and Sunday Times this weekend, Peter Stringer is unlikely to make the 23.

Prediction:
I still believe this Leinster team are going to unleash a performance sooner rather than later; maybe that's hope rather than belief but they just look to have too much proven class, particularly up front. Their Achilles heel is the 10-12-13 axis which is strictly caretaker, but it need not be fatal.
A big crowd behind them, the sh*tty weather is supposed to improve by the weekend and a referee (Garces) that we're familiar with? Leinster by 7-ish points, but it will be a nervous week.

Ah sure f**k it, here's some old-school nostalgia to finish with too.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wt5D8vNV3TA

molloyjh

Absolutely excellent preview there TF. Fully agree with the lot of it. Bet you didn't see that coming!

errlloyd

Cracking preview, gonna be either in Alton Towers or in a pub in Birmingham for this one.

One thing I have a feeling Eastmonde is still ahead of Burgess, I could be wrong, but it'd be a shame if they dropped him some footballer.

Neil3030

Leinster. A billion, nil.

duckysauce

Bath by 7 if Gopperth is starting

total former

Bath to <insert pun here>

errlloyd wrote: »

Cracking preview, gonna be either in Alton Towers or in a pub in Birmingham for this one.

One thing I have a feeling Eastmonde is still ahead of Burgess, I could be wrong, but it'd be a shame if they dropped him some footballer.

Yeah the Eastmond call I'm not sure of at all, he's a lovely player alright. I was thinking that he might be a better bench option than Burgess but could go either way.

the baby bull elephant

I wouldn't be so sure of scrum dominance. Both Webber and Auterac have been very strong there, with their scrum looking much better with Auterac in it than James. I haven't really seen Kalma-Newport but having Dave Attwood behind you makes a massive difference.

Podge_irl

I was in Bath at the weekend. Nice place.

I have no clue how this game is going to go.

.ak

duckysauce wrote: »

Bath by 7 if Gopperth is starting

Bath by 15 if Madigan is.

.ak

Podge_irl wrote: »

I was in Bath at the weekend. Nice place.

I have no clue how this game is going to go.

Yeah I feel the same. Thinking back to the last pool games both played (Wasps v Leinster & Bath v Glasgow) I think it's going to be a loose afair.

After being humiliated in terms of defence last week I expect Leinster to play a tighter game, perhaps a bit more narrow in terms of stacking defenders. However, that might just invite Bath onto us even more so. We could go out like we did against Wasps and just try to win it by sheer relentless power.

total former

Bath to <insert pun here>

.ak wrote: »

Yeah I feel the same. Thinking back to the last pool games both played (Wasps v Leinster & Bath v Glasgow) I think it's going to be a loose afair.

After being humiliated in terms of defence last week I expect Leinster to play a tighter game, perhaps a bit more narrow in terms of stacking defenders. However, that might just invite Bath onto us even more so. We could go out like we did against Wasps and just try to win it by sheer relentless power.

Yeah, I hope so. Compared to the Wasps game, we'll be replacing Ryan with O'Brien, Bent with Healy and Hagan with McGrath, and with Heaslip hopefully making it through 80 minutes, that means only one thing:

vienne86

Bath to <insert pun here>

Lovely write up, total. I think you have it right, and I agree with your team selection. Starting to get excited now.

In 2021 we will be looking back at this fixture as the time when old Mattyball finally started to come together. Teary-eyed terracers will regale how they always had faith in O'Connor and what he was building towards, their faith justified by wining the first RCC and shaving a play off spot to go on and beat Munster in the Pro12 final.






...or we will play awful awful rugby, gift silly tries, get turned over all day and fail to support a single breaking runner. And still win by 3 points.

Buer

duckysauce wrote: »

Bath by 7 if Gopperth is starting

And by 13 if he isn't.

EDIT: Aaaaand I've the same sense of humour as .ak.

Dark days.

thomond2006

Fanning to score a 100m try after receiving a long loopy pass from Madigan inside the Leinster in goal area.

7-0 FT

Rattlehead_ie

thomond2006 wrote: »

Fanning to score a 100m try after receiving a long loopy pass from Madigan inside the Leinster in goal area.

7-0 FT

It took him 89 mins to run 100m...... eeeeeek

stephen_n

Great write up, have no clue how this going to go as too often this season we have failed to perform as the sum of our parts. Our pack should be capeable of out muscling them, just not sure how it's all going to click with so many of our starting pack being with Ireland for the last 8 weeks.

molloyjh

I think we'll beat them but I don't think it'll be through a complete and satisfying performance. We just have too much individual class in our side with the likes of Healy, Cronin, Toner, SOB, Heaslip, Fitz and Rob Kearney. I think that'll shine through in the end.

irishbucsfan

I think there's absolutely 0% of a complete and satisfying performance. Our team haven't played together this season for a multitude of reasons, they're not going to be able to come together in one week and produce anything close to their best against a Bath side who are full of confidence at the moment.

I think we can win, but I think it's a very close call. I think home advantage may be a big deciding factor.

ionadnapokot

Can see Bath winning this. Very impressed with Ford at 10 during the 6N. And Joseph. I'd be surprised if Burgess started ahead of Eastmond. Bath will run it from everywhere. I expect them to score at least a couple of tries. Louw will need to have a big game to secure them ball. And they have Attwood laying down the law in the tight 5:pac:
http://gfycat.com/MemorableSolidJuliabutterfly

molloyjh

irishbucsfan wrote: »

I think there's absolutely 0% of a complete and satisfying performance. Our team haven't played together this season for a multitude of reasons, they're not going to be able to come together in one week and produce anything close to their best against a Bath side who are full of confidence at the moment.

Yeah I may not have said it but this is exactly why I don't think it'll be a big performance. There may be big individual performances though which I think will get us through.

Big Nelly

Bath to <insert pun here>

I remember the last match against bath in Aviva, it was bloody freezing. By the looks of the weather it is trying to repeat those conditions.

Any idea what saturday will bring?

total former

Bath to <insert pun here>

Reddan taking some part in training today so hopefully he's OK for the weekend.

Larbre34

I voted for Bath to win, as currently it makes more sense.

MOC could make his selection easier by just ruling out Kirchner now.

Quint2010

Poll pun suggestion: Bath runneth over...Leinster?..

Pudsy33

Bath to <insert pun here>

When will teams be announced? Thursday?

Podge_irl

Big Nelly wrote: »

I remember the last match against bath in Aviva, it was bloody freezing. By the looks of the weather it is trying to repeat those conditions.

Any idea what saturday will bring?

I brought a bottle of warm port in with me and drank it during the game.

Cause that's just how I roll.

total former

Bath to <insert pun here>

Pudsy33 wrote: »

When will teams be announced? Thursday?

Noon on Friday.

Weather is supposed to be lovely; dry, not too cold, little or no wind.

Big Nelly

Bath to <insert pun here>

Podge_irl wrote: »

I brought a bottle of warm port in with me and drank it during the game.

Cause that's just how I roll.

We had cans of beverages. Too bloody cold too hold them, lucky my mate was working in Aviva, right after the Kearney try we got moved up to corporate level to hot water.....:P

errlloyd

What always used to bug me about these games on sky was the abbreviations they put beside the score.

Leinster would get LEIN showing they could do four characters, Bath would get BAT, which is only one letter short of their actual name. Like it's fairly ocd, but it annoys me in the same way as when people use the text speak version of words, despite them having the same amount of characters.

Buer

LOLZ +1 erl!!!

accidentprone1

errlloyd wrote: »

What always used to bug me about these games on sky was the abbreviations they put beside the score.

Leinster would get LEIN showing they could do four characters, Bath would get BAT, which is only one letter short of their actual name. Like it's fairly ocd, but it annoys me in the same way as when people use the text speak version of words, despite them having the same amount of characters.

Maybe the "I" in Leinster let them squeeze in the fourth letter? It's less wide than a "H".

Big Nelly

Bath to <insert pun here>

errlloyd wrote: »

What always used to bug me about these games on sky was the abbreviations they put beside the score.

Leinster would get LEIN showing they could do four characters, Bath would get BAT, which is only one letter short of their actual name. Like it's fairly ocd, but it annoys me in the same way as when people use the text speak version of words, despite them having the same amount of characters.

No need to worry, it is on BT Sports

errlloyd

Buer wrote: »

LOLZ +1 erl!!!

Reported, text speak breaches the charter :pac::pac:

Dravokivich

errlloyd wrote: »

What always used to bug me about these games on sky was the abbreviations they put beside the score.

Leinster would get LEIN showing they could do four characters, Bath would get BAT, which is only one letter short of their actual name. Like it's fairly ocd, but it annoys me in the same way as when people use the text speak version of words, despite them having the same amount of characters.

The overlays in the corner and updates that come on the bottom of the screen aren't designed by the broadcasters.

errlloyd

Dravokivich wrote: »

The overlays in the corner and updates that come on the bottom of the screen aren't designed by the broadcasters.

The competition was to blame? Finally, if IBF had just told me that last year I'd have been all for the "I can't believe it's not the Heineken cup"

.ak

errlloyd wrote: »

What always used to bug me about these games on sky was the abbreviations they put beside the score.

Leinster would get LEIN showing they could do four characters, Bath would get BAT, which is only one letter short of their actual name. Like it's fairly ocd, but it annoys me in the same way as when people use the text speak version of words, despite them having the same amount of characters.

It's a silent H.

TheGoldenAges

Bath to <insert pun here>

Prediction: A stuttering performance but we'll win out in the end, 5 point win.

Also I was talking to someone this morning and they were comparing Leinster under MOC to France under Saint André, thought it was a good comparison.

.ak

Really? Is it? France have a far better squad than Leinster do and are underachieving far more than Leinster are imo.

awec

France also have far more pedigree on the international stage than Leinster do on the club/province stage (to go back to a point I made weeks ago - Leinster's successes are all relatively recent).

Tox56

.ak wrote: »

Really? Is it? France have a far better squad than Leinster do and are underachieving far more than Leinster are imo.

I really don't think the French squad is *that* good. It's good enough to compete with the top 3 of the six nations this year but not better than them. I'd say similar of Leinster certainly in the league and probably to the semi final level of Europe

TheGoldenAges

Bath to <insert pun here>

I think it can be balanced where although France have the better squad, MOC has a lot more time with the players. Otherwise both teams look directionless and rather abject.

total former

Bath to <insert pun here>

http://m.bathchronicle.co.uk/Paul-James-Peter-Stringer-Bath-Rugby-s-match-day/story-26261290-detail/story.html

Interesting news here. Paul James will be fit, ahead of schedule, but won't have played for a few weeks. Also, Stringer will be included in the 23 for his knowledge of the Irish players. (I'm not sure he ever really played with many of the Leinster team?)

vienne86

Bath to <insert pun here>

TheGoldenAges wrote: »

I think it can be balanced where although France have the better squad, MOC has a lot more time with the players. Otherwise both teams look directionless and rather abject.

The main similarity to me seems to be that both squads have very good players, but somehow neither of those two coaches seem to be able to get the best out of their players.

scott1974

Bath getting back at least one prop..was hoping we could take advantage there.
http://www.bathchronicle.co.uk/Paul-James-Peter-Stringer-Bath-Rugby-s-match-day/story-26261290-detail/story.html

CIARAN_BOYLE

total former wrote: »

http://m.bathchronicle.co.uk/Paul-James-Peter-Stringer-Bath-Rugby-s-match-day/story-26261290-detail/story.html

Interesting news here. Paul James will be fit, ahead of schedule, but won't have played for a few weeks. Also, Stringer will be included in the 23 for his knowledge of the Irish players. (I'm not sure he ever really played with many of the Leinster team?)

Healy Cronin Ross Toner Heaslip Sean O'Brien Redden Darcy Fitzgerald Rob Kearney

The above would have been in a number of Ireland camps with Stringer

errlloyd

Will this be the first game Strings has played on Irish soil since leaving?

total former

Bath to <insert pun here>

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Healy Cronin Ross Toner Heaslip Sean O'Brien Redden Darcy Fitzgerald Rob Kearney

The above would have been in a number of Ireland camps with Stringer

Ah yeah, but many of those would hardly ever have actually played with him, and even the likes of Kearney and Heaslip wouldn't have seen him on a pitch for years. I presume he's there for his big game experience, the Leinster link is a bit tenuous.

irishbucsfan

total former wrote: »

Ah yeah, but many of those would hardly ever have actually played with him, and even the likes of Kearney and Heaslip wouldn't have seen him on a pitch for years. I presume he's there for his big game experience, the Leinster link is a bit tenuous.

Nah, he would know far more about those players than anyone else you're going to get in the UK. Not just from his time training or playing with them, but more from the relationships he has with people in the Irish game.

Bridge93

Could he not just provide his knowledge on them and not be in the 23?

irishbucsfan

Bridge93 wrote: »

Could he not just provide his knowledge on them and not be in the 23?

Yeah, I'd say he definitely could. I don't see why he needs to be involved in the 23 to benefit the squad.