England potentially set to lose 4th CL spot

Smithwicks Man

With further underperformance from English sides in European competition this season, the Premiership looks likely to lose their 4th Champions League in the coming seasons.

As it stands, Spain are well out in front with England trailing in 2nd followed by Germany and Italy. After this season, Germany are guaranteed to have taken over England in 2nd place and the gap between England and Italy will have dropped significantly.

Ironically, the nonsense propaganda surrounding the Premiership for the last several years only adds to the hurt that would be felt if the precious 4th spot is lost to what Sky Sports News would have you believe are vastly inferior leagues with dramatically lower standards of football.

The Moldy Gowl

Potentially??? Hardly. Stop this hyperbole.

2000 off Germany and will still get a 4th spot even if bayern pull them over England.

Italy will never catch up.


It's one year. Plus, it's all out years next year

It'd be funny and better if they lost all spots bar 1st tbh

weldoninhio

Smithwicks Man wrote: »

With further underperformance from English sides in European competition this season, the Premiership looks likely to lose their 4th Champions League in the coming seasons.

As it stands, Spain are well out in front with England trailing in 2nd followed by Germany and Italy. After this season, Germany are guaranteed to have taken over England in 2nd place and the gap between England and Italy will have dropped significantly.

Ironically, the nonsense propaganda surrounding the Premiership for the last several years only adds to the hurt that would be felt if the precious 4th spot is lost to what Sky Sports News would have you believe are vastly inferior leagues with dramatically lower standards of football.

I would love to see this happen. How beautiful would it be if the season the new bumper Sky deal kicks in that England only have 3 teams in Champs Lge.

Winston Payne

Serie A is a drastically inferior league, and it does have a vastly lower standard of football. I say this as someone who likes the bloody league. It's chronic.

Smithwicks Man

Gowlasauras Rex wrote: »

Potentially??? Hardly. Stop this hyperbole.

2000 off Germany and will still get a 4th spot even if bayern pull them over England.

Italy will never catch up.


It's one year. Plus, it's all out years next year

If Italy get another 3 points this year, which looks very likely. They only need to match Englands tally next season to overtake them.

It's extremely plausible, in fact it's likely to happen.

Smithwicks Man

rarnes1 wrote: »

It'd be funny and better if they lost all spots bar 1st tbh

weldoninhio wrote: »

I would love to see this happen. How beautiful would it be if the season the new bumper Sky deal kicks in that England only have 3 teams in Champs Lge.

Agreed

Smithwicks Man

Winston Payne wrote: »

Serie A is a drastically inferior league, and it does have a vastly lower standard of football. I say this a someone who likes the bloody league. It's chronic.

I watch 3/4 Serie A games a week. It's not near as bad as it's made out to be and the standard of the teams is higher than most people realize. Hence them potentially overtaking England - due to Italian teams outperforming them in Europe.

It's a much, much more tactical league that is played a slower tempo - like it always was. It's a different style of football.

weldoninhio

Could the new bumper Sky deal be the think that sinks the Premiership?? Look at what happened to the lower leagues when ITV digital went kaput.

I've been saying it for years, but the Premier League to me looks exactly like the property bubble. Lots of hype and bs that has to eventually pop.

5starpool

weldoninhio wrote: »

I would love to see this happen. How beautiful would it be if the season the new bumper Sky deal kicks in that England only have 3 teams in Champs Lge.

Actually Sky themselves would probably nearly be happy since they have lost all CL rights from next season. Who knows when they will next get to show an English team in CL football again. The PL though would not be happy.

If Juve were to win the CL and say if Napoli and Fiorentina get to the final of the EL then there might be a bit of nerves to next season's competition if there is a chance that another poor showing might relegate tem to 4th them. I'm not sure how likely that is though.

ArmaniJeanss

Looking at your link even when 2010/11 slips off the running list in the summer they'll still retain a lead over Italy, so are guaranteed to have the 4th slot for the next 2 seasons. Wee bit of hyperbole in the op to be honest.

(Though clearly another season of underachievement would start to make it at least a possibility for 2017/18).

Smithwicks Man

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Looking at your link even when 2010/11 slips off the running list in the summer they'll still retain a lead over Italy, so are guaranteed to have the 4th slot for the next 2 seasons. Wee bit of hyperbole in the op to be honest.

(Though clearly another season of underachievement would start to make it at least a possibility for 2017/18).

I disagree that it's hyperbole in any way, shape or form.

To quote my post from earlier:

Smithwicks Man wrote: »

If Italy get another 3 points this year, which looks very likely. They only need to match Englands tally next season to overtake them.

It's extremely plausible, in fact it's likely to happen.

I said they could potentially lose their 4th spot in the coming seasons and there is strong evidence supporting this.

magma69

Liverpool should win the Champions League next season so don't be worrying.

weldoninhio

5starpool wrote: »

Actually Sky themselves would probably nearly be happy since they have lost all CL rights from next season. Who knows when they will next get to show an English team in CL football again. The PL though would not be happy.

If Juve were to win the CL and say if Napoli and Fiorentina get to the final of the EL then there might be a bit of nerves to next season's competition if there is a chance that another poor showing might relegate tem to 4th them. I'm not sure how likely that is though.

They've spent billions, and are raising the prices to view a league that could be considered the 4th best in Europe. I very much doubt they'd be happy. They may not be showing it, but the prestige of having 4 teams in it would be a big selling point for Sky.

Smithwicks Man

magma69 wrote: »

Liverpool should win the Champions League next season so don't be worrying.

Wouldn't Italy need 13.0 more points to overtake?

greendom

rarnes1 wrote: »

Wouldn't Italy need 13.0 more points to overtake?

No, I think that's Lira

keane2097

People seem to be very confused about the word "potentially" ITT.

Turtyturd

Would almost be enough to make you wish Mourinho or Arsenal went further.









Almost.

keane2097

keane2097 wrote: »

People seem to be very confused about the word "potentially" ITT.

Not really.

Would Italian winners of both comps be enough to overtake England? Doubt it

Cookiemunster

rarnes1 wrote: »

Wouldn't Italy need 13.0 more points to overtake?

Next season 2010/11 points get deducted. That's 7 points straight away. Plus Italy still have 3 clubs in Europe with the ability to pick up more points this season.

Smithwicks Man

rarnes1 wrote: »

Wouldn't Italy need 13.0 more points to overtake?

No because England will lose these points due to the 5 year time category.

England got 6.8 more in 2010-11 and 3.9 more in 2011-12.

This means that after next season they will have lost 10.7 of their lead over Italy and the lead will be just 2.5

Should Italian teams get more than 2.5 in the remainder of this seasons competition - which I'd expect they will. They only need to match Englands tally next season to overtake them.

Harry Palmr

What a heap of dog****e, the coefficients work on a rolling 5 year tally, it'll take both England failing and Italy succeeding together for the third place to be lost.

titan18

English teams would need to do as bad next year for any chance of it to happen.

Smithwicks Man

Harry Palmr wrote: »

What a heap of dog****e, the coefficients work on a rolling 5 year tally, it'll take both England failing and Italy succeeding together for the third place to be lost.

titan18 wrote: »

English teams would need to do as bad next year for any chance of it to happen.

Not necessarily.

Cookiemunster

Smithwicks Man wrote: »

No because England will lose these points due to the 5 year time category.

England got 6.8 more in 2010-11 and 3.9 more in 2011-12.

This means that after next season they will have lost 10.7 of their lead over Italy and the lead will be just 2.5

Should Italian teams get more than 2.5 in the remainder of this seasons competition - which I'd expect they will. They only need to match Englands tally next season to overtake them.

Only 10/11 will disappear next season. England could still outperform Italy by more than 3.9 next season before the 11/12 points disappear.

Smithwicks Man

Smithwicks Man wrote: »

No because England will lose these points due to the 5 year time category.

England got 6.8 more in 2010-11 and 3.9 more in 2011-12.

This means that after next season they will have lost 10.7 of their lead over Italy and the lead will be just 2.5

Should Italian teams get more than 2.5 in the remainder of this seasons competition - which I'd expect they will. They only need to match Englands tally next season to overtake them.

From my calcs and they may be wrong, even if Italy get another 3 points this season they will still be almost 3 behind England starting next season

weldoninhio

Harry Palmr wrote: »

What a heap of dog****e, the coefficients work on a rolling 5 year tally, it'll take both England failing and Italy succeeding together for the third place to be lost.

Currently, next season England will start with 62.034 points. They have no teams left this year and can't gain any more points.

Italy would start with 56.055 points, but they have 3 teams left in Europe, so they can catch up even more.

Another poor season from England and a decent one from Italy would see England drop a place.

Smithwicks Man

rarnes1 wrote: »

From my calcs and they may be wrong, even if Italy get another 3 points this season they will still be almost 3 behind England starting next season

Yes you're right, I said after next season.

Smithwicks Man

Cookiemunster wrote: »

Only 10/11 will disappear next season. England could still outperform Italy by more than 3.9 next season before the 11/12 points disappear.

Yes if they outperform them then they're safe but there's no guarantee of that! :P

Smithwicks Man

Smithwicks Man wrote: »

Yes you're right, I said after next season.

Yeah, it'd take another poor season from England and a strong one from Italy.

This season was a bit unusual from England tbf

Cookiemunster

Smithwicks Man wrote: »

Yes if they outperform them then they're safe but there's no guarantee of that! :P

There's also no guarantee that Italy will have a season like this any time soon again. Spain were the only other country to get as many clubs this far. I'd be pretty confident that England will have teams in the quarter finals again next season.

Winston Payne

This is the second year in three seasons that England have had no team in the Champions League quarter finals. It isn't impossible for that to happen again next season. Premier League teams need to improve not just on the pitch, but the coaching has to be better.

paulbok

5starpool wrote: »

Actually Sky themselves would probably nearly be happy since they have lost all CL rights from next season. Who knows when they will next get to show an English team in CL football again. The PL though would not be happy.

If Juve were to win the CL and say if Napoli and Fiorentina get to the final of the EL then there might be a bit of nerves to next season's competition if there is a chance that another poor showing might relegate tem to 4th them. I'm not sure how likely that is though.

This might encourage the PL & FA to start to help teams in Europe from a match scheduling point of view.

Cookiemunster

paulbok wrote: »

This might encourage the PL & FA to start to help teams in Europe from a match scheduling point of view.

This is a huge thing. Spanish, Italian and German teams will never play on a Sunday if they're playing a Tuesday CL match. Spain allows teams to move the matches to the previous Friday in the latter stages.
Sky/BT and the PL give their teams no help at all.

Agent Coulson

Cookiemunster wrote: »

This is a huge thing. Spanish, Italian and German teams will never play on a Sunday if they're playing a Tuesday CL match. Spain allows teams to move the matches to the previous Friday in the latter stages.
Sky/BT and the PL give their teams no help at all.

This will probably change when the new rights contract kicks in and Friday night games are on.

5starpool

Agent Coulson wrote: »

This will probably change when the new rights contract kicks in and Friday night games are on.

Unlikely. I think these games will mostly be the least attractive of the televised games. You may see the likes of Arsenal vs Stoke, etc, but I doubt it will be arranged for their full benefit as it'll nearly all be the tv companies call.

Agent Coulson

5starpool wrote: »

Unlikely. I think these games will mostly be the least attractive of the televised games. You may see the likes of Arsenal vs Stoke, etc, but I doubt it will be arranged for their full benefit as it'll nearly all be the tv companies call.

True, It may come down to a fight between Sky and BT depending on how well BT's exclusive rights to CL football are doing.

Will Sky want PL teams doing well in the CL thus busting BT's ratings on how helpful they are with letting a CL team have the Friday night game.

gimmick

Afaik the Friday game is going to be a "glamour" tie where possible.

Sanity_Saviour

Turtyturd wrote: »

Would almost be enough to make you wish Mourinho or Arsenal went further.









Almost.

lol, 108 times.

it's like the 14 year old girl in school who won't stop bitching about the girl she doesn't like.

You'd tell her to stop, but you almost admire her persistence to bitterness and being pathetic to get attention

Dempsey

Swithwicks Man's use of terms like 'potentially' is confusing people as much as the general understanding of the uefa coefficients!

English Football is awash with money and there is alot of Di Maria's in the world

ArmaniJeanss

Dempsey wrote: »

Swithwicks Man's use of terms like 'potentially' is confusing people as much as the general understanding of the uefa coefficients!

More so his use of the phrase 'it looks likely to be happen in the next few seasons' in the OP when we can say with certainty that it can't happen next season or the following season, and that England take a lead over Italy into next seasons rolling coefficient despite their terrible campaign this year.
So its still clearly more likely not to happen than to happen.
It has to be said thats its incredible that the EPL has dipped so much in the rankings that the debate can even take place, its something that would scarcely have been believed 5 years ago.

A thread about coefficients is great though, definite kudos to the OP for that.

Dirty Dingus McGee

Cookiemunster wrote: »

This is a huge thing. Spanish, Italian and German teams will never play on a Sunday if they're playing a Tuesday CL match. Spain allows teams to move the matches to the previous Friday in the latter stages.
Sky/BT and the PL give their teams no help at all.

I don't think English teams ever play on a Sunday if they are playing a European match the following Tuesday.

The_Kew_Tour

Dirty Dingus McGee wrote: »

I don't think English teams ever play on a Sunday if they are playing a European match the following Tuesday.

I can only remember it happening once where United played league game on the Sunday and played Porto on the Tuesday. Was 08/09 season. Think it was Villa that Sunday

Arghus

According to the big brains at Sky-

"To wildly predict the future, England’s fourth place will not be affected for the 2015/16 season, should be protected for the 2016/17 season, but may come under threat for the 2017/18 season - but only if Italian clubs consistently out-perform English clubs across both European competitions for the rest of this season and next season."

A thread on the coefficient is welcome but I would question how it's phrased, surely for something to be potentially set to happen is a contradiction in terms?

Smithwicks Man

Dempsey wrote: »

Swithwicks Man's use of terms like 'potentially' is confusing people as much as the general understanding of the uefa coefficients!

English Football is awash with money and there is alot of Di Maria's in the world

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

More so his use of the phrase 'it looks likely to be happen in the next few seasons' in the OP when we can say with certainty that it can't happen next season or the following season, and that England take a lead over Italy into next seasons rolling coefficient despite their terrible campaign this year.
So its still clearly more likely not to happen than to happen.

Arghus wrote: »

A thread on the coefficient is welcome but I would question how it's phrased, surely for something to be potentially set to happen is a contradiction in terms?

Apologies as I had to head off for the late shift at work so couldn't keep the thread ticking over as I would have liked to but I do feel people are underestimating just how likely England losing their 4th place is.

To reiterate:

Smithwicks Man wrote: »

No because England will lose these points due to the 5 year time category.

England got 6.8 more in 2010-11 and 3.9 more in 2011-12.

This means that after next season they will have lost 10.7 of their lead over Italy and the lead will be just 2.5

Should Italian teams get more than 2.5 in the remainder of this seasons competition - which I'd expect they will. They only need to match Englands tally next season to overtake them.

Basically. If Italian teams get another 3 points this season, which I believe they will. Then they only need to match England's tally next season for the overtaking to occur.


My use of the phrase "potentially overtake England in the next few seasons" is being taken by some as though I think it will happen in the coming weeks. The coefficient system laid out in such a way so that it takes 2 seasons for any actual effect to take place but this doesn't mean that the actual occurrence has not taken place a year before we see the end result.


In my view it will come down to this: Even though the margins will be very small, should Italian teams have a couple more solid performances this season in Europe - English teams will have to outperform Italian teams next season or the Premiership will lose it's 4th CL place for at least 1 year.


The odds of this happening aren't near as far-fetched as people believe.

gosplan

This will change everything for Arsenal.

The third place trophy.

Sounds weird

Dempsey

Smithwicks Man wrote: »

Apologies as I had to head off for the late shift at work so couldn't keep the thread ticking over as I would have liked to but I do feel people are underestimating just how likely England losing their 4th place is.

To reiterate:





Basically. If Italian teams get another 3 points this season, which I believe they will. Then they only need to match England's tally next season for the overtaking to occur.


My use of the phrase "potentially overtake England in the next few seasons" is being taken by some as though I think it will happen in the coming weeks. The coefficient system laid out in such a way so that it takes 2 seasons for any actual effect to take place but this doesn't mean that the actual occurrence has not taken place a year before we see the end result.


In my view it will come down to this: Even though the margins will be very small, should Italian teams have a couple more solid performances this season in Europe - English teams will have to outperform Italian teams next season or the Premiership will lose it's 4th CL place for at least 1 year.


The odds of this happening aren't near as far-fetched as people believe.

I'm not debating what you are saying, from the opening post, its been a perfectly valid opinion. Just the reaction to it has been a excercise of needless semantics by others who think England could never lose a UCL place whilst being awash with so much money.

This won't happen

Ulysses Gaze

AdamD wrote: »

This won't happen

No-one thought Italy would lose their 4 slots given that Milan won the Champions League in 2007 and Inter won it 2010.....but lose it they did.

Only takes a couple of years of bad performances for the thing to change.

Laois_Man

Gowlasauras Rex wrote: »

It's one year. Plus, it's all out years next year

It's not just one year. There were no English teams in the quarter finals in 2013. The year before that, Chelsea won the competition but they were the only English team that got to the quarter finals. The British media will have you believe this is an aberration but it clearly isn't!