Match Thread: Italy vs. Wales. Saturday 21st, 12.30 PM (Irish Time)

Tommybojangles

It appears my paltry post count makes it difficult to use pictures and gifs, apparently boards shares Uncle Deccie's respect for experience. So for the moment this thread will not be the all-singing, all-dancing, gaminest, ballinest thread it was to be, and consists mainly of (ugh) relevant content.

Kicking off what is sure to be a nerve jangling 6 nations finale we have a game which, at first glance, could not be any farther from a title decider. Chances of an upset hover around the 0% mark, as high flying Wales travel to take on an Italian side coming off the back of a comprehensive hammering, in their own back yard, in one of the worst games the tournament has seen in years. To make this their own title decider, Wales’ task is simple. Points, points and more points is the order of the day…

Line ups:


Wales: Leigh Halfpenny; George North, Jonathan Davies, Jamie Roberts , Liam Williams , Dan Biggar , Rhys Webb , Rob Evans , Scott Baldwin, Aaron Jarvis , Luke Charteris , Alun Wyn Jones ,Dan Lydiate , Sam Warburton (capt),Toby Faletau.

Replacements: Ken Owens, Rhys Gill , Scott Andrews , Jake Ball , Justin Tipuric, Gareth Davies ,Rhys Priestland, Scott Williams.


Italy: Luke McLean, Leonardo Sarto, Luca Morisi, Andrea Masi, Giovanbattista Venditti, Kelly Haimona, Edoardo Gori, Michele Rizzo, Leonardo Ghiraldini, Martin Castrogiovanni, George Biagi, Joshua Furno, Francesco Minto, Mauro Bergamasco, Samuela Vunisa.

Replacements: Andrea Manici ,Alberto De Marchi , Dario Chistolini , Quintin Geldenhuys , Robert Barbieri , Guglielmo Palazzani, Luciano Orquera ,Enrico Bacchin.


Selection Issues:
Like most games involving Italy, the pre-match build up centered upon one man, and this time around that meant negative vibes. Removing Sergio Parisse from this side roughly equates to removing Lionel Messi from the Rosario Wanders u-12 team for whom he tore up countless, (Already poor quality) Argentinian pitches. The returning Mauro Bergamasco cannot hope to replace the captain’s influence, with experience and hard work now the only real weapons in the 35 year old’s arsenal. Further back Italy’s woes at 10 continue, with everyone’s favourite project player, Kelly Haimona, taking the reins once again. Jacques Brunel seems convinced Haimona is the best of the bad bunch available to him, with Tommy Allen, admittedly injured in last week’s French debacle, and Luciano Orquera overlooked.

On the Welsh side, the front row has been their greatest concern, injuries to Samsun Lee and Gethin Jenkins leading them to field numbers 1-3 with a total of 18 caps between them, a fraction of the 109 held by Italy’s returning prop Martin Castrogiovanni, apparently cleared of rabies having been bitten by a friends dog. The mutt remains in a critical but stable condition. The other big news from the Welsh camp is the dropping of Lions scrum half Mike Phillips from the bench, replaced by Gareth Davies, with the Scarlets man’s exuberance and try-scoring ability seen as preferable to Phillips crooked feeds and fight-starting ability.


What can Italy do to help us?
It’s a huge cliché at this stage, but most of Italy’s hopes lie in their scrum in this game, with the hope being their experienced fatties can turn the screw on the young Welsh front row. The persistence with Haimona indicates that Brunel has accepted it may be best to play ugly and shut the opposition down, as the mercurial Orquera represents the strongest contrast imaginable to the Kiwi.

A huge defensive performance from the backrow will be required to shut down the Welsh power runners, but equally important may be the tackle count Andrea Masi and Lucan Morisi manage in the center. On the positive side, having nothing to play for also means Italy have nothing to lose, their season already being a success having put the Scots to the sword in round 3. There is a sprinkling of quality in the likes of Masi, Morisi and even Gori (meh), and a solid performance by the pack may give them the opportunity to snatch a few Sarto 2014-like scores to hamper Wales ambitions.


What are Wales’ chances?
In the tightest finale in years, all 3 contenders have a great chance, but Wales are the very slight outsiders. One factor which has been largely overlooked in the build up is the contrast between the 2 games which Wales will be playing in the space of 7 days. To go from making 4000 (Source: Stepehn Jones) tackles in Cardiff last weekend to chasing points this is not necessarily an easy task, and may see Gatland’s side take a while to get going. The scrum situation last weekend has been well documented and revisiting it would be pointless, but without doubt Wales will not want the ball to spend too much time wrapped up in the pack. Moreover, as Ireland found out to their cost in 2007, playing first up can leaves you in a situation where it’s never clear whether to chase points mindlessly or play it a little safer. Just the one try last week, and 5 in the tournament so far, needs to be turned to 4 or even 5 this weekend just to be in contention.

On the positive side, Wales undoubtedly have the players to put teams to the sword, as evidenced by the season finale against 14-man Scotland last year. If the gaps do open up, George North in particular will decimate the Italians. A try or 2 in the first half could give Wales the platform to put up the score they need in the second as the Italian’s minds become more desperate for the end.

Money where the mouth is:
Wales to lead by 10 at the half, a whole lot of “Stop, Stop, he’s already dead” gifs, but ultimately Italy to nick the scores to keep it to a respectable 35-13 and end Wales interest in the tournament, just.

Alternative ending:
Wales to lead by 10 at the half, before panicking and throwing two interceptions to Sarto and Masi, leaving the game at 25-20 before Orquera comes on the field to score a pirouetting, triple chip and chase last minute try under the posts before missing the conversion for a thrilling draw.

19543261

Italy by 1.

matthew8

I thought Wales might rack up a big score, only thing is that's an awful, awful front row for them. Only thing that could undo them, though none of the Italian front row start at their clubs. Warm sunny weather forecast in Rome. Wales by 30 for me to really make the last day interesting.

Swiwi.

Ireland's got talent!

Nice preview bro, hopefully the start of many.

I'm not even going to lie, will probably just keep an eye on the score via BODs app.

It will make the Irish game pretty tense if Wales set a decent target.

Losty Dublin

Good write up, man.

My only gripe is that I consider Ireland slight favourites, based mainly on the fact that we have the second game of the day and against the one team who have been good at nothing and brutal at everything this season; Scotland. Regardless of that, Wales need to go for broke as well and they will; I'm going with a 18 point gap come 80.

molloyjh

Losty Dublin wrote: »

Good write up, man.

My only gripe is that I consider Ireland slight favourites, based mainly on the fact that we have the second game of the day and against the one team who have been good at nothing and brutal at everything this season; Scotland. Regardless of that, Wales need to go for broke as well and they will; I'm going with a 18 point gap come 80.

That will be worthless to Wales. Italy have a place kicker who can't place kick and are missing the bedrock to their side. They were so incredibly bad last week I can see Wales winning by between 30 and 40. Which will put the pressure on us.

That won't be such a bad thing though as it would heap pressure on England then and force us to set them a target if we can.

Bridge93

I'm going to say Wales by 20. If they have no scrum and hopefully keep coughing up penalties hopefully they'll find it difficult to get enough field position.
I'm hoping that Italy have targeted it as one of their winnable games (as unlikely as it is) as I'm sure they didn't with England last year.
Wales also haven't shown me anything yet that tells me they are capable of putting 40/50 points on a team away from home.

Could be optimistic but that's how I see it.
Wales setting us a small target to chase may be good. Force us to come out and have something to chase rather than simply set a target.

Tommybojangles

Losty Dublin wrote: »

My only gripe is that I consider Ireland slight favourites, .

. Think you'll find we're actually in agreement!

endabob1

They have to assume that both England & Ireland will win, So Wales will believe they need a very big score. I would think they need at least 35, maybe even 40 points margin, but if Italy without Parisse were to concede a couple of early scores it's very feasible, France put 29 on them and they aren't as good a side as Wales imo

WinnyThePoo

Even for Italy standards, they where pretty horrible last week. I expect them to step up a little bit more. To bad their missing Zanni, Favaro and Parisse though.

vienne86

Italy usually get worse as the competition goes on. And they are without Parisse. I'm afraid I'm expecting a rout tomorrow.

thomond2006

Delon Williams to throw a last minute intercept that subsequently costs Wales the championship.

sydthebeat

You might want to change that kick off time from 1; 30 pm to 12:30 pm

In case people are confused

.ak

Just an FYI, game starts at 12:30 GMT!

SteelyDanJalapeno

Time is worng in the title, this is off at 12:30, very confusing if people catch a glimpse of it

jd007

19543261

C'mon Italy.

BunkMoreland

Italy will win this one.

RuggieBear

never a penalty.

law makers need to sort that out

Stev_o

How to milk a penalty from a high ball, land awkwardly.

BunkMoreland

Allen will be on now, looking good!

BunkMoreland

Or not

RuggieBear

6-3 11min

captbarnacles

eh was sure that missed

Fireball07

Our Italian brothers have started as well as could be hoped.

captbarnacles

Commenatator just cursed halfpenny

RuggieBear

doesn't have to get out of the way....or did he move into the way!?

funtime93

Another bull**** wales pen

captbarnacles

Curse fail

RuggieBear

6-6 12mins

Micky Dolenz

What the hell was that for?

RuggieBear

argh venditti

errlloyd

North was a mile offside

Stheno

Didn't expect that first 15mins Italy have started well

Fireball07

Quality from Sarto there, he's a very good player. Exciting runner too.

errlloyd

No clear release from awj....

Edit, ah he wasn't part of tackle

RuggieBear

nice play by italy. turn over pen tho

Fireball07

Gori was doing well, managing the pack, very high pace.

Wales still strong at the breakdown though.

kevohmsford

Decent game so far. 6-6. Italy seeing plenty of the ball.

RuggieBear

nice try.

hope that doesn't break the italians

onlyme!

This will be hard to watch

Fireball07

FFS, nice try.


But was it played on the ground by a player in the ruck earlier? I think it was about to break free and the player in the ruck was the one who prevented it from spilling out?

RuggieBear

was the ref yabbering on while halfpenny was taking that kick?:p

kevohmsford

Lovely kick from Halfpenny for Roberts to finish. Great try.

Kristopherus

Easy enough try for Wales.

Buer

Would be very interested to see a close up of the grounding there. Roberts was fighting to get it down still when it was given. I think his own hand was under it when he initially made contact with the deck.

funtime93

Missed 2 by halfpenny

funtime93

funtime93 wrote: »

Missed 2 by halfpenny

yay for points difference
nay for fantasy six nations score

kevohmsford

Next score in this is huge.

Hammer Archer

Wales penalised in a scrum :pac:

captbarnacles

scrum pen for Italy very nice

If Italy stay on top in scrum all game no way Wales run up a huge score