Scotland v Ireland build-up thread

Swiwi.

In which Scotland will try to salvage some pride and in so doing avoid a wooden spoon; and in which Ireland will try and rack up a score, put Wales out of the running if they should still be in it, and give England a target to chase...

In my opinion, Schmidt has 2 choices: let this week's team get back on the horse..which I have no doubt would get the win, but probably not enough points differential...or throw a bit of caution to the wind and make some changes. Would be pretty special I must say if Ireland could wrap up the 6N with a 4-try (figurative) bonus point victory.

Let the debates begin.

Celly Smunt

I dont think wales will stretch the points difference.
I cant see England beating France by enough of a difference for them to be put on top.

Ireland by 15+ with the championship.

Swiwi.

Celly Smunt wrote: »

I dont think wales will stretch the points difference.
I cant see England beating France by enough of a difference for them to be put on top.

Ireland by 15+ with the championship.

France would love nothing more than to deny England the championship. Could even see them winning LOL.

marco_polo

So far in the championship Scotland have coughed up a shedload of mostly unpunished line breaks and scored a few great off the cuff tries to claw their way back into games.

If we can punish the former and defend well against the latter we should be good enough for a comfortable win.

Edit And everyone play much better than today of course.

AbusesToilets

I think Wales will run away with it against Italy and that we will likely struggle against Scotland. England will probably comfortably beat France and win on points diff.

Sean Kinsella

AbusesToilets wrote: »

I think Wales will run away with it against Italy and that we will likely struggle against Scotland. England will probably comfortably beat France and win on points diff.

We lack wit in possesion and while I can see us overcoming a poor Scottish team, we won't dp enough to take the the championship and I think England will.

I would love to be wrong, but that loss to Wales has hit us harder than we think.

thomond2006

I've been completely wrong with my margin predictions this season so I haven't a clue what's going to happen! I do think England are favourites though, given the standings.

marco_polo

AbusesToilets wrote: »

I think Wales will run away with it against Italy and that we will likely struggle against Scotland. England will probably comfortably beat France and win on points diff.

Ireland are about as good as Wales and Italy are about as good as Scotland so I don't really see the logic behind such wildly different predictions tbh.

vienne86

AbusesToilets wrote: »

I think Wales will run away with it against Italy and that we will likely struggle against Scotland. England will probably comfortably beat France and win on points diff.

Yes, I think Wales will win with a huge points difference, and could well win the 6N. We could struggle a bit against Scotland but should clock up a reasonable points difference. As for France, they would LOVE to put one over on England - I think England will win, but not by that much.

thomond2006

France have a dreadful record against England but assuming they win well tomorrow they are actually in with a shout of winning the championship.

matthew8

Ireland by around 15. Can see this going similarly to last year's Wales and Scotland matches. Execution around the try line has been a problem 2 games in a row now, hopefully it's worked on during the week. Today's game not the end of the world at all, Wales were brilliant, a couple of Ireland's consistent performers had bad games and still we probably deserved a draw in the end.

Dave_The_Sheep

If Schmidt can't get a response from our side after that game today, and the hurt it must have caused, then I will be very surprised. I fully expect Ireland to let rip at Scotland. Scotland have shown themselves to be without composure when it matters (mind you, just like us today actually) and man for man we're a better side.

That's not to say Scotland don't have what it takes to trouble us. Cotter vs Schmidt will lend it a little more too. I just think we're going to have too much for them.

duckysauce

Swiwi. wrote: »

In which Scotland will try to salvage some pride and in so doing avoid a wooden spoon; and in which Ireland will try and rack up a score, put Wales out of the running if they should still be in it, and give England a target to chase...

In my opinion, Schmidt has 2 choices: let this week's team get back on the horse..which I have no doubt would get the win, but probably not enough points differential...or throw a bit of caution to the wind and make some changes. Would be pretty special I must say if Ireland could wrap up the 6N with a 4-try (figurative) bonus point victory.

Let the debates begin.

yep difference subs made today was very notable . Cronin and Reds, Hendo should start , they have put their hands up and have played extremely well when coming off the bench , and have given the game alot more pace. Welsh couldn't handle Cronin when he came on . Offers a huge amount more than Best .

thomond2006

Cronin and Henderson to start. Fitzgerald and Earls in the 23 please.

Celly Smunt

Actually since we're on the topic of France actually. If we don't win I'd love to see the cocky little bastards take the title to shove it in England's face.

entangled

France have lost twice already. Unless I've miscalculated they'd have to beat England, have Italy beat wales, have Scotland beat Ireland and rely on points difference to win the championship.

CatFromHue

thomond2006 wrote: »

I've been completely wrong with my margin predictions this season so I haven't a clue what's going to happen! I do think England are favourites though, given the standings.

Nah France are.

They're going to run up a big score tomorrow, beat England next week and Ire and and Wales will both lose too.

.ak

thomond2006 wrote: »

Cronin and Henderson to start. Fitzgerald and Earls in the 23 please.

I think Cronin and Hendo are guys you want to spring from the bench. Our current XV has been immense and turning the screw on teams. That's what we want to do with Scotland. Absolutely bash them down to dust and then let the runners into the pitch.

thomond2006

entangled wrote: »

France have lost twice already. Unless I've miscalculated they'd have to beat England, have Italy beat wales, have Scotland beat Ireland and rely on points difference to win the championship.

Sorry you're right. I was thinking they had only lost once...

marco_polo

I do think even if we changed nothing, that if we ask Scotland to make near 300 tackles we might find the answers alot more pleasing , especially if we can improve the performance/accuracy levels.

entangled

Scotland have been losing to everyone but not by much. Both their home games they only lost by three, so it won't be that easy to run up a score against them. Having said that their tackling was pretty dire today and England left a bunch of tries behind them.

SuprSi

Seriously, when is the last time France put in a decent showing in Twickenham? I can only remember them playing crap every single time and I don't see things changing this time around. I'd say England will blitz them, rack up about +20 points and take the Championship as we won't score enough

Grandpa Hassan

Swiwi. wrote: »

France would love nothing more than to deny England the championship. Could even see them winning LOL.

I'm not sure how much France care when the GS is gone. Or whether they care as much as you suggest about beating England. They've won one 6N game in London since 1997. For that reason I'd put my money on England to win the 6N next weekend.

AbusesToilets

I was going off of our previous performances against Scotland. They seem to be one of the teams that we tend to struggle to perform well against. Hopefully I will be proved wrong on that.

RoundBox11

If you look at Ireland's performance today, Sexton had an absolute mare, our lineout was a shambles, our scrum weren't given anything even though they handed Wales their arses at time and Wales' defence was immense, but yet they still only won by 7. To me that actually says a lot about this Irish team and how bloody difficult they are to beat.

As others have rightly said, there's going to be a serious backlash next week, particularly from guys like Sexton. I wouldn't drop Best yet because I think we need to see him start again to get a proper idea of if we'll be able to rely on him to start come the WC or will we have to look at Cronin and Strauss for the warmups. If he's dropped for next week we won't know whether it was just a stinker or if his form is genuinely sinking (I don't think it is).

I don't think Schmidt will change his game plan from what we saw in the first 3 games to be honest. If it can beat England and France comfortably enough it'll be good enough for the Scots. However, i think he'll encourage them to keep ball in hand a bit more once in their half and hopefully if it sticks we can run in a few tries as i think the Scottish defence has looked porous.

I'd love to see Henderson and Healy start and give us more go forward ball and smash apart the defence but at the same time McGrath and to a lesser extent POM have been very good so far this year. I think we'll see the same 23 again next week.

It is mouthwatering though to think that come the WC pool games we could be mixing up the team enough to have a back line like Murray, Sexton, Fitz, Olding, Henshaw, Earls, Payne. But for now though i'd say it's going to be the same team again and let them redeem themselves and get back some momentum.

aimee1

SuprSi wrote: »

Seriously, when is the last time France put in a decent showing in Twickenham? I can only remember them playing crap every single time and I don't see things changing this time around. I'd say England will blitz them, rack up about +20 points and take the Championship as we won't score enough

england will know the scores from earlier games much like we did. so they will know what they need to do. The french defence will help england if they get quick ball as they dont blitz

marco_polo

SuprSi wrote: »

Seriously, when is the last time France put in a decent showing in Twickenham? I can only remember them playing crap every single time and I don't see things changing this time around. I'd say England will blitz them, rack up about +20 points and take the Championship as we won't score enough

They rarely get blitzed there though 09 being a recent exception. And bad and all as they were they still only lost narrowly to us and Wales.

Hopefully we can put up a decent target against Scotland anyway. Its one thing beating France by 20 points but going into the game knowing you have to do that is another thing entirely with the calibre of players they have (even if the coach is crap)

Edit: And if they did win by say 15+ points knowing they had to you'd have to tip the hat and say they deserved it.

SaveOurLyric

I'd go for :

Kearney
Bowe
Payne
Henshaw
Zebo
Sexton
Murray
McGrath
Best
Ross
O'Connell
Toner
O'Mahony
O'Brien
Heslip

Bench:
Healy
Cronin
Moore
Henderson
Murphy
Reddan
Madigan
Jones


I think this team would have the forward power to subdue the scottish pack, and defense to avoid conceding much in the first half. We should be 12-3 or so up at half time and in total control - the scoreline misleading of of our total dominance. Then unleash the bench with about 25 to go, including Madser, and have a lash a them. Another 20 points even if conceding a try. Jones on for the last 10 minutes, and win by about 25.
About 20 points clear win. A few more if a few Maddog solos pay off in the last 5 minute frenzy.

Whether that good enough for the title is another story.

marco_polo

Would you not pick someone like earls or fitz at 23 if you are looking to rack up some late points?

SaveOurLyric

marco_polo wrote: »

Would you not pick someone like earls or fitz at 23 if you are looking to rack up some late points?

Have a nagging feeling Joe might go for Fitz at 23 alright.

But not a good idea to go changing what is fundamentally a winning strategy despite today (just a bad day against a good team who had a good day playing the same type of game). Stick to the knitting and get a clear win is the main priority. Once the 12-15 points is clear, Scotland will be bet and doing the same thing will accumulate the more points. Madser will be enough injection of in-yer-face spark to cut through tired defense.

marco_polo

SaveOurLyric wrote: »

Have a nagging feeling Joe might go for Fitz at 23 alright.

But not a good idea to go changing what is fundamentally a winning strategy despite today (just a bad day against a good team who had a good day playing the same type of game). Stick to the knitting and get a clear win is the main priority. Once the 12-15 points is clear, Scotland will be bet and doing the same thing will accumulate the more points. Madser will be enough injection of in-yer-face spark to cut through tired defense.

Yep I think a similar strategy to today is the best way to beat Scotland by grinding them down. The last thing we need to do is get into a frantic game with them as broken play counter attacking is one of their few strenghts.

I'm still not sure jones is integral to the strategy though

duckysauce

SaveOurLyric wrote: »

I'd go for :

Kearney
Bowe
Payne
Henshaw
Zebo
Sexton
Murray
McGrath
Best
Ross
O'Connell
Toner
O'Mahony
O'Brien
Heslip

Bench:
Healy
Cronin
Moore
Henderson
Murphy
Reddan
Madigan
Jones


I think this team would have the forward power to subdue the scottish pack, and defense to avoid conceding much in the first half. We should be 12-3 or so up at half time and in total control - the scoreline misleading of of our total dominance. Then unleash the bench with about 25 to go, including Madser, and have a lash a them. Another 20 points even if conceding a try. Jones on for the last 10 minutes, and win by about 25.
About 20 points clear win. A few more if a few Maddog solos pay off in the last 5 minute frenzy.

Whether that good enough for the title is another story.

Radical changes there

Dangerous Man

I fancy Ireland to take the title but like last year - it's going to be tighter than a very tight thing indeed. Despite today's loss, I still think Ireland are the best team in the NH - and a better team than Wales. I think we'll deal with Scotland pretty handily and as bad as France have been I don't see England putting a big score against them.

sydthebeat

I think whatever happens next weekend, be it an Irish scrape over the line or an English/ Welsh nose dive. ..... it Will be ultimately forgettable in five years time.

History was lost today.

marco_polo

sydthebeat wrote: »

I think whatever happens next weekend, be it an Irish scrape over the line or an English/ Welsh nose dive. ..... it Will be ultimately forgettable in five years time.

History was lost today.

Yeah it doesn't come around that often that you beat both England and France in the same year so its hard to take in that respect as we had the ability to win today. Unfortunately the cold hard fact is Wales are slight ahead of both currently.

These are unquestionably becoming ever harder to win as the pro era goes on, but that probably makes the loss today harder rather than easier to take.

.ak

sydthebeat wrote: »

I think whatever happens next weekend, be it an Irish scrape over the line or an English/ Welsh nose dive. ..... it Will be ultimately forgettable in five years time.

History was lost today.

Ah that's just the pain speaking. A championship for us a rare gem. IF we did win it I'd remember it just like I'll always remember last years.

The grandslam is bragging rights only.

CatFromHue

sydthebeat wrote: »

I think whatever happens next weekend, be it an Irish scrape over the line or an English/ Welsh nose dive. ..... it Will be ultimately forgettable in five years time.

History was lost today.

As far as I know Ireland have only retained the 5/6N as outright winners once before in 1948 and then 1949.

If we win this years 6N it will be quite an achievement!

Swiwi.

Does anyone else think Ireland are missing at least 1 player with the ability to offload in the team? The whole pack has players who seem to enjoy taking the contact (I don't think I've ever seen O'Connell offload in an international fixture), but it strikes me that Henderson might be able to offload a bit. Likewise, both centres are more the crash-ball type.

Based on this observation alone, Henderson, Earls & Fitzgerald in the mix. I actually agree with the poster (forget who sorry) who said POM & SOB are a little bit samey. POM has always liked to stamp his physicality on a match, and I'd say offloading is not really in his back of tricks, and while SOB can offload, he seems to me to still be finding his feet after his injury.

As we saw v Australia with Zebo, offloading can backfire, but at the moment defensive teams don't have to think too hard when defending v Ireland, as witnessed clearly yesterday by Wales' 300 tackles, and Ireland not really threatening the line in open play. Didn't help that the 2 locks had zero notion of looking to the backs when camped on the Welsh line, although some of the blame should also go to Murray & Sexton for not asking for the ball.

phog

CatFromHue wrote: »

As far as I know Ireland have only retained the 5/6N as outright winners once before in 1948 and then 1949.

If we win this years 6N it will be quite an achievement!

But we could have won the GS this season, our performance/execution yesterday was white. Now we might not even win the Championship.

bilston

The squad may change as our aims for next are a little bit different now. Up to now we just needed to win, next week I think we need to win by at least 15 points.

Now obviously you have to win the game first but we need to make sure we give ourselves every chance to score tries as well.

Coburger

Dangerous Man wrote: »

I fancy Ireland to take the title but like last year - it's going to be tighter than a very tight thing indeed.

With England playing last and knowing what to do, I can see them taking the title. Ireland need to put a good score on Scotland and they haven't looked like racking up the points in a while. Scotland as well, in their last game, will want to prove something.

Cosmo Kramer

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-union/31872271

A particularly poor effort at explaining the situation from the BBC, miscalculating what both Wales and England need to do. I'd have expected better from them.

.ak

Swiwi. wrote: »

Does anyone else think Ireland are missing at least 1 player with the ability to offload in the team? The whole pack has players who seem to enjoy taking the contact (I don't think I've ever seen O'Connell offload in an international fixture), but it strikes me that Henderson might be able to offload a bit. Likewise, both centres are more the crash-ball type.

Based on this observation alone, Henderson, Earls & Fitzgerald in the mix. I actually agree with the poster (forget who sorry) who said POM & SOB are a little bit samey. POM has always liked to stamp his physicality on a match, and I'd say offloading is not really in his back of tricks, and while SOB can offload, he seems to me to still be finding his feet after his injury.

As we saw v Australia with Zebo, offloading can backfire, but at the moment defensive teams don't have to think too hard when defending v Ireland, as witnessed clearly yesterday by Wales' 300 tackles, and Ireland not really threatening the line in open play. Didn't help that the 2 locks had zero notion of looking to the backs when camped on the Welsh line, although some of the blame should also go to Murray & Sexton for not asking for the ball.

I think everyone of the 15 are capable of offloads. That doesn't mean we should be seeing it more often. We aren't breaking the gain like enough to use it.

I actually really enjoyed poc's refusal to pop the ball to sexton on his break. He saw the tackler coming in and held the ball. Could've been the difference between holding the ball and knocking on.

Also regarding the last paragraph Reddan and sexton were stuck in a ruck. Poc was scrum half and Zebo first receiver.

P_1

We need to speed up the ball once we get into the 22, it was noticeable how much slower the ball was in the 22 yesterday compared to other areas on the pitch, speed it up and don't let the defence align up in the congested area of the pitch

SaveOurLyric

duckysauce wrote: »

Radical changes there

Well, if it aint broke, dont fix it. What is our best team is very clear, so no point going for changes on the superficial fact that we lost one game. That would just be the old amateur era knee jerk response hoping a change of the brew will imprkve things. This team just needs t keep improving what its doing, and probably for the key games in the WC we will hopefully have Trimble as the only change coming in for The Zeebonator. D Kearney possibly also if Trimble isnt fit and with game time, but that would be a closer call.
Another day, the pure kick chase strategy could work against Walea (and with a different ref, though Im not criticising Barnes - he had a fine game).

duckysauce

SaveOurLyric wrote: »

Well, if it aint broke, dont fix it. What is our best team is very clear, so no point going for changes on the superficial fact that we lost one game. That would just be the old amateur era knee jerk response hoping a change of the brew will imprkve things. This team just needs t keep improving what its doing, and probably for the key games in the WC we will hopefully have Trimble as the only change coming in for The Zeebonator. D Kearney possibly also if Trimble isnt fit and with game time, but that would be a closer call.
Another day, the pure kick chase strategy could work against Walea (and with a different ref, though Im not criticising Barnes - he had a fine game).

yep Barnes was the standout player of the game alright

padser

marco_polo wrote: »

Yeah it doesn't come around that often that you beat both England and France in the same year so its hard to take in that respect as we had the ability to win today. Unfortunately the cold hard fact is Wales are slight ahead of both currently.

Couldn't agree that Wales are ahead of England currently.

We lost narrowly away to Wales with plenty of opportunities to win / draw squandered, we won narrowly at home to England and could have coughed it up near the end (albeit that wouldn't have been a fair reflection on the game).

If we had to play a decider for the 6 nations next week I'd rather play Wales than England (marginally).

entangled

Anyone else having flashbacks to 2007? I think that was the last time we had to set a points target for another team on the last day. Let's not try to run the ball from our own 22 in the last minute of the match against Scotland anyway.

phog

entangled wrote: »

Anyone else having flashbacks to 2007? I think that was the last time we had to set a points target for another team on the last day. Let's not try to run the ball from our own 22 in the last minute of the match against Scotland anyway.

The other teams have to get points too. Chance are is a one point win will be no good for anyone.

vienne86

entangled wrote: »

Anyone else having flashbacks to 2007? I think that was the last time we had to set a points target for another team on the last day. Let's not try to run the ball from our own 22 in the last minute of the match against Scotland anyway.

At least we're not playing first this time.

funtime93

vienne86 wrote: »

At least we're not playing first this time.

Still playing before England though. In 07 it was only France we were up against I think so playing first or second makes no difference.